Election 2019 in India and its possible impact

Election 2019 in India has withdrawn the world attention. As the outcome of the election will have a very deep impact on regional security as well as global. India has 1.2 billion population, while the number of voters is around 900 million. Elections in India due to massive exercise by volume and amount of arrangements, always performed in phases. This time it has started on 11 April and will be completed in 7 seven phases on 23 May 2019. 

Overall, Indian politics has gone into hands of Hindu Extremists, who wanted to turn the country into Pure Hindu state, where no space for non-Hindus, whether they are Christians or Muslims or any other religion. The last couple of decades, Hindu extremist parties joined under the umbrella of “Bharatiya Junta Party” (BJP). They won the election and formed a couple of previous government. Under BJP Government, the extremists’ agenda was in full swing. They have politicized Media, Education and Bureaucracy, by installing or appointing their own favorites in almost on all key positions or decision makers.

The concept of Secular-India has become the part of history and you may read in history books only. The moderate, secular and non-extremist parties have gone into back-burners in the recent history of Indian Politics.

BJP has gained public sympathies based on anti-Pakistan sentiments, the more they hate Pakistan, the more votes they will gain. Up till political slogans, it was accepted and considered as an only political stunt, but during the last five years, BJP has demonstrated and bashed Pakistan on many occasions. In fact, the Modi government has crossed all records of Hate-Pakistan, Harm- Pakistan, and Coerce- Pakistan.

Before “Pulwama” incident, PJB was one of the most popular political party and there was speculation of the wining the Election 2019. But, misadventure by Prime Minister Modi by the end of February was proved counter-productive. Humiliated defeat has harmed Prime Minister Modi seriously. His own party and all the opposition parties are blaming Modi for mis-calculations. In fact, secular forces, intellectuals, and impartial class have turned against Modi’s Pakistan policies. His graph of popularity has dropped down sharply.

PM Modi has promised before the last election for economic reforms and prosperity to the common man in India, which he failed to prove. The common man is disgruntled and may not vote him.

There are many conflicting surveys-reports on the ground, but most authentic sources have confirmed, loss of popularity for PM Modi.

It is possible, someone less extremist or rather moderate may lead BJP, and then there exists hope for BJP to gain momentum. Generally speaking, it is not common in India that a leader may be elected consecutively. There are very little chances of Modi as Prime Minister for next term.

There are 543 seats in Lok Sabha or National Assembly, and one needs to win 272 seats to achieve a simple majority. BJP is definitely not in a position to win 272 seats. It is possible, they may make an alliance with some other parties and form a weak government, where BJP is not in full-control or power. But power-sharing in Extremist society is not viable for the long term and the government may collapse before the due period of 5 years.

It is also valid for the other side too, like Congress. Rahul Gandhi is the son of Rajiv Gandhi, former Prime Minister of India, who was the son of Iron Lady Indira Gandhi who ruled India, and she was the daughter of Nehru, the founding Prime Minister of India. Gandhi legacy in India is well respected and has deep roots in local politics. Congress being a Secular party may enjoy support from Western World. However, intellectuals in India support Congress party. It is possible for Congress too, to make an alliance with some other parties and form a Government. Congress Party’s alliance may be stronger then BJP’s alliance due to it’s secular, moderate and tolerance history.

Western World has noticed during the last 5 years of Modi government, that environment of security and stability suffered a lot in south Asia due to his extremist approach. Western world may extend support to Congress Party if they win the elections.

It is rather very difficult to predict anything at this stage as the politics in India are rather complicated. Let’s wait till 23 May 2019, when the election results will be announced and that will definitely have an impact on the overall stability and security of the region. We are optimistic, what so ever will happen, humanity may be respected and a common man should not suffer. Who so ever form the new government, may opt for people-centric policies and contribute to the security, stability, and prosperity of the whole region.

Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.