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Brazil and Iran Maneuvering Around a Distracted America

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Brazil and Iran have been expressing a need to react to and counter American intelligence priorities and initiatives. Brazil and Iran understand the importance of shared ideas in order to develop allied relationships. Furthermore, both countries are in search for recognition as a ‘source of power,’ but continue to proceed with caution regarding this potentially dangerous strategic vision.

First, Brazil has been concentrating for decades to strengthen regional ties in areas like Sao Tome e Principe, Namibia, and Cape Verde. Brazil examined the internal and external views within the South Atlantic region to support its strategic vision of becoming a global power. Whelan explains “internal and external contingencies contribute to the creation and, more particularly, re-creating of network structure” (33). By creating early relationships with the South Atlantic region, Brazil is establishing a new ‘network structure’ within the region that could be somewhat independent of the United States. Brazil is also pursuing the establishment of policies to advance their initiatives in securing offshore oil assets while constraining external global powers, such as the U.S. and China (Beatriz, de Matos, and Kenkel, 263). Brazil feels justified in establishing a presence within the South Atlantic region to secure resources, thus enhancing their own competitive economic growth within the global economy. As Malamud explains:

“Brazil tactically recognized it was unable to exert a significant influence on the whole continent and was thereby ready to focus on a smaller area…the South Atlantic region, which was less dependent on the United States, giving Brazil room to maneuver.”

Since the United States is less involved within these regions, Brazil has influence to secure these economic resources. Furthermore, this allows Brazil to establish new alliances, balance power throughout the region, and identify with states that have common interests.

Brazil is securing the South Atlantic region through acknowledging drug-trade problems, human rights issues, and transnational threats to overshadow regional economic agreements. Although Brazil has the same priorities in combating transnational threats as the U.S., such as combating piracy, the transnational drug-trade, and human trafficking, it also needs to strategically counter the U.S. becoming a primary source of regional power. Armstrong explains “proactive constituencies espouse approaches that their opponents claim overshadow more important issues” (2007). Brazil is aware of US interest in regional security and its soft power “aimed at building a stable security environment.” Brazil must strive to establish agreements in the South Atlantic region before the United States or other powers with regional influence by understanding and analyzing the interests and initiatives of the United States and outperforming them in terms of their own proposals and ideas.

Brazil has utilized the importance of “shared ideas, meanings, identities and social contexts in understanding the consolidation of cooperative ties, or adversarial relations, among actors” (Beatriz, de Matos, and Kenkel, 265). It is essential for Brazil to keep the initiatives of the United States at its forefront to protect their own access to valuable economic resources. Brazil is establishing a means, through raw materials and resources, to become an economic competitor with countries such as the United States and China. “Brazil is gifted with immense reserves of natural resources, and biodiversity products” (Almeida, 9). Brazil may be able to surreptitiously obtain a regional power status that has influence on the global scale through such strategies.

Second, Iran is seeking regional influence through maintaining a relationship with Turkey. In the past, Iran has analyzed its enemies to determine when the enemy regime is at its weakest. Arsenault explains “several strategies seek to take advantage of rivals’ regime weaknesses and therefore should be pursued only when the target states have the expected level of regime instability” (2017). Iran recognizes the necessity to examine the errors of other nations within the Middle East to exert its influence over the region.

Iran continues to examine its enemies to find an opportune point of influence. One of Iran’s major targets is Israel, of which it has inflicted substantial damage with the alliance of Hamas and Hezbollah (Arsenault, 2017). Iran pursues an enemy (Israel) the U.S. has continued to support and attempts to stabilize through diplomatic solutions and military alliance (Binnendijk, 133). The U.S. continued to support Israel from the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons. However, currently, Iran and the United States share common interests to include “an interest in the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and cooperation to defeat ISIS, a common enemy among both nations (Binnendijk, 35). Although Iran seeks to defeat ISIS, it has simultaneously established and constructed political leaders within other terrorist organizations to support and obey their own national interests.

Iran’s interaction with the United States could just be an example of examining the enemy from a strategic viewpoint. Iran is aware of the United States’ support to Israel and its National Defense Strategy to combat terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah. Yet, Iran continues to develop relationships with such extreme organizations. Kazemzadeh explains (57):

“The Lebanese Hezbollah considers the supreme leader of Iran to be its ultimate political leader. This means that the Lebanese Hezbollah would go to war or accept peace not by the order of the president of Lebanon but by the order of the supreme leader of Iran.”

Iran must ‘balance power’ between keeping relative peace with the United States while trying to get Israel to succumb to its overarching goals. Iran understands to achieve its goals it is essential to employ proxy partners. However, when the Obama administration removed troops from Iraq, Iran saw an opportunity to exploit Iraq at its most unstable moment by filling the vacuum (Kazemzadeh, 62). Although smaller states believe Iran poses a serious threat to regional and global security, they are too weak to stand up to Iran. Iran is continuing to exploit the present weaknesses of American power in order to achieve its objective of gaining regional power throughout the Middle East.

In conclusion, Brazil and Iran both have deep-seated objectives and have been patiently waiting decades to carry out their strategic plans. Both nations have found a way to either distract US attention away from the region or exploit a hole within plans of the United States. In the case of Brazil, it has aimed at targeting the South Atlantic region to gain economic power, which does not heavily rely on the United States for support. In the case of Iran, they have patiently waited to exploit the removal of troops in Iraq. These are the first strategic steps Brazil and Iran have taken to counter U.S. priorities and initiatives. Both countries recognize the importance of establishing relationships to expand their regional influence. Ultimately, Brazil and Iran have taken advantage of opportunities while American attention was preoccupied elsewhere. 

Larissa Beavers was born and raised in Ashley, PA and joined the United States Air Force in 2004. She has been an enlisted member of the United States Air Force for the last 14 years as an intelligence analyst. Larissa is currently a student of American Public University System under the Doctorate of Strategic Intelligence Program. She completed her Bachelors in Criminal Intelligence and Masters of Intelligence Studies at American Public University.

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Intelligence

Ethnic War a Newfangled Pakistani Forward-policy for Afghanistan

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According to the intelligence information, Pakistan’s ISI is trying to start ethnic and maneuvering war again in Afghanistan, of which distinct objective is to refurbish the age-old enmity between the Achakzai and Noorzai tribes in the southwest zone. Besides, they want to start an ethnic war among Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns across Afghanistan, and between the northern and southern directions, thus, the prominent leaders of the Taliban, who are led by the ISI, have been entrusted with the task. As in the east and north of Afghanistan, Pashtun Taliban militants are oppressing other Non-Pashtuns, raiding their homes; however, no high-ranking Pashtun Taliban officials are preventing them because the ISI network leads this strategy. In order to revamp a civil war in Afghanistan, score of influential figures have been summoned by the Pakistani military establishment. 

The latest examples are as follows: Two days ago, the Pashtun Taliban killed the former police chief and an influential tribal leader in Mandol district of Nuristan province, which caused many emotions against Pashtuns especially about southwest zone of Afghanistan. Meanwhile, in order to afresh the years of hostility between the Noorzai and Achakzi tribes in the southwestern region of Afghanistan, the ISI network raised the issue of a mass grave by several leading Taliban militants, especially by the current governor of Kandahar province and Noorzai tribe leading leader, Haji Mohammad Yousef Wafa.

Qari Aslam Noorzai call for by Pak security forces

At a time when the former leader of the Noorzai tribe, the leading smuggler of drugs and heavy weapons in Central and South Asia, and the financial supporter of the first Taliban regime, Haji Bashar Noorzai was released from the US prison in Guantánamo. The Noorzai tribe once again became twice as strong and dominant in Afghanistan, especially in the southwest zone.  Resulting threats towards the Achakzai people, on the other hand, ISI has started rapid efforts to recommence the years of enmity between these two tribes.

Hajee Feyzullah Khan Noorzai meets Pak military Intelligence

Recently, Pakistan’s intelligence network ISI, with the help of some leading social media and high-ranking Taliban officials, has kept the issue of finding a mass grave in Kandahar province in the southwestern zone of Afghanistan broiling, namely by inducing  the blame-game. Meanwhile, local tribal leaders and residents of Spin Boldak district claim that such a grave is the grave of those who were taken out of their homes by the Taliban after August 15.  Since, they were connected to Achakzai tribe and on the other hand, they served in the security departments of the overthrown Islamic Republic of Afghanistan that is why the Taliban night raided their houses, and massively killed them.

Moreover, mass murdering Hazaras at their educational institutions via suicide bombing and meantime blowing up the worship places of Sufi-Muslims, who preach the non-violent form of Islam, while calling for De-weaponization and De-politicization of Islam.

Consequently, by applying such a forward-policy, Pakistan will achieve its fancied strategic-depth in Afghanistan, while subjugating the Afghan Nation.

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Pakistani Intelligence Agencies ignite Tribal Conflicts in Pak-Afghan Region

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According to the intelligence information, Pakistani intelligence community supported by some international rings want to once again spread dispute and disharmony among the tribes in Afghanistan and Pakistan; subsequently the centuries-old evils and wars between the tribes will once more take a new color and become fresh. Recently, rumors of the discovery of a mass grave in Kandahar province in the southwestern zone of Afghanistan are spreading; the blame for this mass murder falls on the former police chief of Kandahar province and the former leader of the Achagzai tribe, General Abdul Razaq Achagzai.  In order to afresh raising the reaction of the Norzi tribe against the Ackzai and anew the evil and war between these two tribes. Even though the current governing body of Afghanistan is completely under the control of the Noorzi tribe, because most of the high-ranking leaders of the Taliban, including the leader of the Taliban, Sheikh Haibatullah, are related to the Noorzi tribe, so there is a greater threat posed to the Achakzi tribe.

Even now, in spite of such menaces, more than 6000 Achakzi families live in Kandahar province, whose members served in the security departments under the command of General Abdul Razaq Achakzi, a staunch opponent of the Taliban.  Currently, in such a tense situation that the Taliban administration has control over Afghanistan and the head of this administration is connected to the Nurzi tribe, the harsh criticism of General Abdul Razaq Achakzai’s mass killings is logical, which can cause international and internal outcries.  As a result, the major victims will be the youths and leading tribal leaders of the Achakzai tribe.

By the advent of Taliban on August 15, 2021, in the first four months, more than 600 youths and tribal leaders from the Achakzi tribe were killed in the southwest zone of Afghanistan, while applying night operations or raids by the Taliban. The most famous case happened to the family of Haji Fida Mohammad Achakzai in Spin Boldak district. Haji Fida Muhammad Achakzai, known as Haji Fida Aka, is a leading leader of the Achakza tribe of Spin Boldak district and had close relations with the family of General Abdul Razaq Achakzai.

 When Kandahar province fell to the Taliban before August 15, the two young sons of him were killed by the Taliban on the first night, unfortunately none of the Taliban officials took any action to prevent the tragedy. Nevertheless, this time, there is a plan going on at the international level to renew the age-old differences between the Achakzai and Norzai tribes, which the international media warmly supports.  If this time the internal differences and conflicts between the Achakzai and Norzai tribes in Afghanistan get sturdier, then it will have damaging effects not only in Afghanistan, but also, serious negative measures will be taken against the Norzai under the leadership of Mahmoud Khan Achakzai, the head of the Achakzai tribe, in the Pakhtunkhwa provinces of Pakistan.

In the meantime, the decision of the Pakistani government to hand over the Pashtun areas in Pakhtunkhwa provinces to the Taliban was approved and supported by the Nurzi tribe, conversely, this action of the Pakistani government was strongly condemned by Mahmoud Khan Achakzai and PTM leader Manzoor Pashtun.

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Afghan Zarqawi is shot dead in Panjsher valley of Afghanistan

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According to intelligence information, the leading Taliban commander Maulvi Habibullah Sheeran, who was known as Zarqawi, a resident of Zhrhai District, Kandahar Province, in the southwestern zone of the Taliban was killed in Panjsher battle.

Meantime, the intelligence report indicates, Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir, the general military officer of Panjshir and Andrab and the deputy of the Ministry of National Defense, was injured in Panjshir on Friday, September 16 at 3:25 p.m.

Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir, who is considered one of the leading and influential war commanders in the southwest zone of the Taliban, has the support of about 4,000 low-ranking and high-ranking Taliban fighters. He is one of the Taliban military commanders who, during the first mobilization of the Taliban, formed the Taliban group with the support of Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid, the founder of the Taliban, and attracted hundreds of young men from Helmand province to the Taliban group.

When the Taliban came to power for the second time in Afghanistan, due to internal differences among the Taliban, Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir left the Taliban for a short time and went to his native Kajki district of Helmand province. However, due to the many efforts of the Taliban, especially Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir’s assistant and the current head of security of presidential palace  Mullah Mutaullah Mubarak, He joined the Taliban again and was appointed as the Deputy Minister of Defense.

Taliban leaders made more efforts to reunite Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir with the Taliban, because he was an influential military leader, and on the other hand, Taliban leaders were receiving reports that Mullah Qayyum Zakir wants to join ISIS against Taliban. Nevertheless, when he joined with the Taliban leaders for the second time, he was assigned the position of Deputy Minister of Defense, So, for a period, he cooperated with the Minister of Defense Maulvi Yaqoub as a military advisor in the Ministry of Defense.

 When the rumors of the fall of the northern part of Afghanistan were spread and the fighting between the NRF or the National Resistance Front and the Taliban in Panjshir and Andrab intensified, Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir, based on the special permission of Sheikh Haibatullah, Appointed General Military Officer of Northern Afghanistan. In addition, from September 9, under his leadership, a special military operation named Al-Fath began in Panjshir and Andarabs to clear and liberate northern Afghanistan from the fighters of the National Resistance Front.

As a result of the operation, from September 9th to September 16th, dozens of NRF fighters were also killed but the casualties of Taliban fighters are methodically shown below, although scores of Taliban fighters were destroyed.

  • The bodies of 60 to 70 Taliban fighters who were killed in the battle of Panjshir have been transferred to Uruzgan province.
  •  The dead bodies of 50 Taliban fighters have been transferred to Kandahar Province.
  • The dead bodies of 33 Taliban fighters have been transferred to Helmand Province.
  •  The dead bodies of 22 Taliban fighters have been transferred to Ghor Province.
  • The dead bodies of 11 Taliban fighters have been transferred to Takhar province.
  • The dead bodies of 6 Taliban fighters have been transferred to Kunduz Chahar Dara.
  •  The dead bodies of 12 Taliban fighters have been transferred to Zabul province.
  • The dead bodies of nine Taliban fighters have been transferred to Wardag Province.
  • The dead bodies of 10 Taliban fighters have been transferred to Dandi Ghori in Baghlan province.  

Last Friday, September 16, in the bloody battle, Mullah Qayyum Zakir, the military officer in charge of Panjshir and Andrab, was seriously injured and eight of his bodyguards, who were residents of Helmand and Uruzgan provinces, were killed. Mullah Qayyum Zakir was transferred to the 400-bed hospital in Kabul at 10 o’clock in the evening on September 16, and former Taliban doctor Atiqullah was invited to Kabul from Al-Khair Hospital of Balochistan province of Pakistan for treatment.

There is a bloody war going on in the north of Afghanistan and around 300 al-Fatih forces are going to Panjshir from Kabul tonight and may reach tomorrow. Meanwhile, in Vienna, the plan for the formation of a new military and political movement was announced in a three-day meeting of the anti-Taliban political officials of the former government of Afghanistan. Moreover, based on that military plan, after dividing Afghanistan into five major parts, the political and military leaders of each zone will start preparing their organizations against the Taliban, and they will use such political and military tactics as the Taliban used against the government of the Republic of Afghanistan during the last 20 years of resistance.

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