The declaration that the U.S. will withdraw its military presence from Syria has a strong reflect into many stakeholders in the ongoing conflict in Syria. Questions are posed about the implication of this decision for the Kurds, Turkey and Iran. Moreover, what is the Russian plan to influence the region with the participation of Iranian interests? Meanwhile, the U.S. withdrawal can be seen as a suitable opportunity for another global power to influence the region such as China.
Since the war started in 2011 China has gently become more involved in the Syrian conflict, which considers as a shift from China’s foreign policy doctrine. In 2016 China’s involvement becomes very obvious when the People’s liberations Army decided to provide not only the humanitarian’s assistance but also the military cooperation between Syria and China that was strongly appreciated from the Assad and his allies. At the same time, China denies any active military presence in the region. As China official announce the cooperation was limited to supplying intelligence, strategic advisors and recently limited special forces in 2017.
China has announced its interest in taking advantage of economic opportunities in post-war which is estimated to be $400 billion. Hundreds of Sino companies were present at the 60th Damascus International Fair in 2018, where they make deals of numerous businesses in Syria. From the Syrian perspective, China is an excellent opportunity in particular while the U.S. sanctions are still remaining.
The opportunities in Syria matching China’s geopolitical ambitions. As seen today in Syria Sudan and many African nations China is aiming to boost its influence on the international arena by playing as a constructive global citizen in the conflict resolution and reconstruction. After the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, China could emphasise its role as a critical international ally in Syria as well as realising its ability to operate outside its traditional foreign policy.
In addition to the economic and political advantages, there are counterterrorism needs in Syria which is a significant concern for China. Many Sino Uighurs travelled to Syria to join the war and fought under the leadership of different entities such as ISIS, al Qaeda in Syria and Jabhat al Nusra. After the end of the conflict, the returning fighter’s issue will pose a significant threat to China’s homeland security with a potential plan for targeting and attack China’s strategic project the Belt and Road.
In 2015 the communist party in China announced its first counterterrorism law, that allows China to conduct counterterrorism operations overseas. China involvement in Syria and taking Assad and his allies side accord with its strategic interests and desires against the Uighurs. In addition, that shows a weakness in the U.S. current administration toward the Syrian crisis and missing an opportunity to a solid engage with China in its counterterrorism strategy. China engagement in Syria will reflect into political and economic influence in the region.
The U.S. influence is decreasing as a result of conflicting policies toward the issues in the Middle East and spending trillions of dollars supporting different parties. Now China representing itself as a neutral player by providing economic assistance and strategic support rather than been confusing by supporting different entities on the ground. On the other hand, the Assad regime considers China as a preferable alternative to the Persian Gulf states to finance the reconstruction plan.
China used to adopt a neutral policy toward the conflict in Syria, Beijing has emphasised the need for a political solution that respects Assad sovereignty. Meanwhile respecting the Assad regime demonstrated China’s ambitions to protect authoritarian leaders by highlighting the need to respect the sovereignty over democracy and human rights.
The sudden U.S. withdrawal from Syria supports nicely toward China’s new policy in the Middle East. The gap after the U.S. withdrawal will emphasis China’s influence in Syria as well as multiple economic and strategic gains.
