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South Asia

Pakistan-China Relations in the 21st Century

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Authors: Areeja Syed and Ahmed Bux Jamali*

Pakistan recognized the People’s Republic of China in 1950 and started diplomatic relations on 21st May 1951. Pakistan from the very beginning has kept its foreign policy approach very friendly as both are immediate neighbors as well. Historically, four major events reshaped the smoothness of relationship towards more cooperation which are the boundary agreement in March 1963, support in 1965 war, the Kissinger secret visit arranged by Pakistan to China and rare veto option adapted by China in United Nations Security Council. The essence of relationship is termed by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto “I should like to make it clear beyond all doubt that we have friendly relations with the People’s Republic of China and that nothing will be permitted in any way to endanger those relations. Our relations with China are an independent factor in our foreign policy and not contingent on any other. In the best interests of Pakistan, we shall maintain the spirit of goodwill, friendship and cordiality with the great People’s Republic of China. I declare that our friendship with China is not tainted by any form of bargain or barter. It is steadfast amity between two neighboring Asian States.”  and one of the famous statement of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang “If you love China, Love Pakistan too.” These statements are not only the building blocks but the proven realities of the glories of time between the two countries. Over 60 years of cordial relations, the depth has escalated more and more keeping in view changing international stages from global war on terror to other major international events onwards . China proved her all seasoned friendship based on equality and mutual respect and harmony. The high level talks and invitations to dignitaries creates a conducive atmosphere for the bilateral relationship. Pakistan and china need each other in the field of economy, strategic alliances, military joint ventures as both are nuclear power countries and student’s exchanges programs to further strengthen the ties in the advancement of science and technology and many more aspects of life.

Economic Relationship

The economy is the soul of foreign policy so is the case here in Pak-China relations. Pakistan and China signed a preferential trade agreement in 2003 where goods and services started revolving around the two countries. With the passage of time, China signed The free trade agreement (FTA) which was adapted in 2006. It was estimated that the bilateral trade was estimated to hit $15 billion by 2011. One basic advantage of signing of FTA was economic enhancement and its operationalization in October 2009 proved to be very economic-oriented outlook for Pakistan’s exports with China.  On the other hand, Pakistani and Chinese banking sectors are cooperating for a long time. Earlier, Bank of China was opened with two branches in 1951 but couldn’t succeeded. Pakistani governmental banks such as National Bank of Pakistan prepared to open branches in China in April 2008 which was later on negotiated between the officials. It was during the previous Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s visit to Pakistan in December 2010 that the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) was invited to open branches in Pakistan and the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) was offered to commence activities in China.

There must be a series of visit of businessman and tycoons of both countries to expand the volume of trade of different items of the two countries. The economic strength must be revolutionized to keep this zone well established and free from any trade barriers. The business communities must create a platform to encourage the new products to China and then at the global market. The two sides expressed satisfaction over the growing volume of their bilateral trade, which has crossed US$ 15 billion and agreed to make efforts to raise it to US$ 20 billion in next three years. The growth rate must be positive and new avenues must be created for investors of both countries.

Strategic Partnership

Pakistan being a highly strategic country, is very much advantageous and pivotal to China keeping in view her strategic interests in this region. The enhancement in the cooperation of defense production regarding aircrafts, fighter bombs, tanks, and heavy artillery is remarkable for the changing regional dynamics.  The main reason of such a huge cooperation of China is to secure the region and achieving the desired goals such as access to Indian and Arabian sea, surveillance to US and Indian Naval activities and access to the markets of Middle East particularly in the field of energy. Their joint ventures and joint production have led to manufacture the MBT 2000 Al-Khalid Tank and JF-17 Thunder, a fighter aircraft, which has the strategic significance and is a unique example of Sino-Pak deep rooted friendship. The unprecedented level of friendship can be evaluated in the views of the Advisor to the Prime Minister on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz that; “The relations between the two countries are growing very fast, particularly for development of communication and energy sectors, Pak-China cooperative partnership has ushered in a new era in line with the ideas and vision, conceived by the leadership of the two countries”

This idea has been inherited from generations to generations among the nations of two countries, that Pakistan is always their first and foremost priority in the foreign policy and China is the cornerstone for Pakistan’s foreign policy as well. The strategic relationship of China with Pakistan is very important for both because it enables China to limit the regional ambitions of India towards its hegemonic designs and further strengthening the Pakistan as a major strategic partner in this region.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

This is one of the best mega project in the history of the two states and indeed a great symbol of the deep rooted friendship of Sino-Pak relationship from 1951 to 2015. The agreement was signed between the leaders of Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping on his visit to Pakistan in April 2015 respectively. The historic words of Xi are remarkable for the glory as he described that “This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as if I am going to visit the home of my own brother.” The main aims of such a project is to connect Gwadar Port in southwestern Pakistan to China’s northwestern autonomous region of Xinjiang through a network of highways, railways and pipelines to transport oil and gas and will operationalize from Gwadar to Kashgar. Overall construction costs are estimated over $46 billion with the entire project. The Corridor is an extension of China’s proposed 21st century Silk Road initiative and indeed a fate changer of billions of people. It will open new avenues for employments and trade pathway from China and the Middle East and Africa at large . Moreover, CPEC is not bound on One Belt One Road policy, its maximize the opportunities between two countries which has various initiatives for the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiatives globally. China has a lot to gain from its economic corridor arrangement with Pakistan; its centuries ‘old vision of reaching the warm waters through the shortest route is coming to fruition through peaceful ways. This will represent a new model of regional and South Asia cooperation which will offer new opportunities for Asia’s rejuvenation and the common prosperity of all countries of the globe led by China and its vision of connectivity.

Challenges And Opportunities

The world has entered into a new era of Globalization and interdependence and the nations have opted mutually beneficial foreign policy behaviors. Those behaviors are based on economic integration and security cooperation, strategic partnership and making peaceful alliances. Pakistan and China are the well-wishers of peace and prosperity not only in South Asia but the world at large. With the changing geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic realities, it is necessary for Pakistan to keep on testing the loyalty, limits and trust of China relationship. Ostensibly, the dynamics of the world have changed as the world has fast traversed the era of economic war and has also has entered the new era of economic cooperation simultaneously. Resultantly, the neighboring countries collaborate with one another economically so that the whole region reaps dividends. The changing dynamics can be seen on10th July,2015 at the 15th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at Ufa, Russia where the status of both Pakistan and India was raised from observer to full member. This will reshape the strategic dynamics and pose new challenges between Pakistan and China relations. Just a few years ago, no one could have imagined that Russia, China, India and Pakistan would opt to join hands for shared economic interests, regardless of their long-standing disputes. This will ultimately lead towards new horizon of changing scenarios within South Asian states. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Iranian Nuclear agreement with P5+1, Kashmir issue with India, revival of the old silk route and Afghan peace process will reshape the regional paradigm in Pakistan’s foreign policy. During Cold war era,US-Russian relations were always based on aggressive posture. They both were ready for every single competition in international arena. US will prefer China as a counter-weight against Russian designs.  This will create favorable conditions for China and Pakistan.

Conclusion

After touching all the dimensions of Pakistan China relationship, one thing that comes to mind is that; its high time for Pakistan to be more focused one Self-reliance policies ratherthan focusing on assistance of China and other international players. China being an immediate neighbor is historic and all seasoned friend but we must establish our potential and increase our international outlook. This will prove to be Pakistan’s less dependency on China and other international players. Economically speaking, Pakistan must settle down its economic issues so that it can enhance its economy smoothly. Resultantly, it will be less dictated in the matters of Political and Economic issues of the foreign policy of Pakistan. Pakistan must keep amicable relations with its neighboring countries especially with India which is historic rival to avoid further notorious actions via Afghanistan and Baluch separatist movement. The four wars never came with any results for both India and Pakistan. The solution of Kashmir issue and other major issues must be settled without using force or inviting other players to deteriorate the relationship. It is our mutual issue and we have to settle it with win-win goals. We need to compromise our designs and ambitions so that South Asian region can be made more peaceful. Pakistan must learn lessons from history of China as she could not get its parts as Hong Kong, Macao form Britain until it became politically strong and economically sound player. Summing up, China and Pakistan are great nations and close neighbors bound by common destiny and goals. No matters how scenarios are changing, both of the countries have to overcome all challenges and carry forward the traditional friendship more deeply. The Chinese-Pakistani government must strengthen people to people contact for further strengthening Sino-Pak partnership for building a harmonious world of enduring peace and common prosperity.

*Ahmed Bux Jamali holds a Masters in International Relations from Jilin University China Presently, he is serving as Research Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Diplomatic Studies Islamabad. He is available at ab_ir92[at]yahoo.com

Author is pursuing MPhil in International Relations from COMSATS University Islamabad. Her area of research focuses on International Security, Strategic issues and Public Diplomacy.

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South Asia

Is PTM Genuine to its Cause?

Syed Nasir Hassan

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Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) v/s Sate is a fiery tale which none can anticipate how it will end. Sparked from the extra judicial murder of model aspirant Naqeeb Ulllah Mahsud on January 13, 2018, the movement continue to get a constant hype on the political spectrum of Pakistan. Initially named Mahsud Tahafuz Movement turned into Pashtun Tahafuz Movement when the case was put forward to the court and Rao Anwar was arrested. However, things got transformed as PTM started taking a constant nudge with the state. From the protest in front of press club in Islamabad, in 2018 to different rallies across country things shifted vigorously. PTM’s defiance is mainly pointed at criticizing the military institution and falsely blaming the institution for their plight. But the question rises that is PTM another mainstream political movement subjected for the elites rather than addressing the actual issue? And are they trying to internationally politicize the issue in order to demoralize the efforts of Pakistan?

On April 29, 2019, DG ISPR Maj Gen. Asif Ghafoor, military spokesperson, addressed PTM leadership and apprised them that the time has come when legal actions is mandatory to be taken against them. He further claimed that the financial records makes the existence of PTM skeptical as they are directly being funded by the foreign factions from neighboring countries  for their protests and rallies.  He was also of the view that PTM is being used by the foreign factions to instigate instability when Pakistan has achieved relative peace. However, the fact should not be neglected that the Government of Pakistan and military establishment acknowledges the demands put forward by the leadership of Pashtun Tahafuz Movement. At various points both, government and military, tried to engage with them in a collaborative manner. Recently on April 16, 2019, Senate Special Committee met the PTM leadership along with the MNA Mohsin Dawar. Even before, when the movement was in its early phase military was the first one to engage with them. When a request was put forward by the PTM leaders to meet military in order to express their grievances, it was agreed. Meeting was held between PTM delegation of 15 members and DG, ISPR Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor on Feb 08, 2018, in which apart from primary demand of justice for Naqeeb Mahsud there were other 4 demands. The military showed consensus on all of them. But the duality of the PTM should not be unremembered as on one side it engages with the government and the military but at the same time the constant barraging on the state and its institutes continues through social media. Things got more complicated as the tone of PTM got discordant day by day. The relentless spewing of hate and impudent comments against the state and its institution clearly show as on whose side PTM is. Movement is kind of drifting away from the true cause when the anti-state and separatist slogans and hymns are openly vocalized in the rallies and are now directed to demoralize the standards of army rather than demanding the rights.

With constant efforts from both government and military the PTM appears reluctant to develop a consensus. Keeping this whole saga in mind One might consider that either PTM leaders are not well negotiator or they don’t want to negotiate and the picture is much larger then it seems.

In 2018, a commission was also formed to facilitate PTM which included high ranks from the military and reputable civilians. State was persistence in facilitating the PTM grievances. DG ISPR also highlighted in his briefing that in order to remove landmines, a team was formed and is currently putting every effort at their disposal. The team had cleared 45 percent of the area and in pursuit of the task 101 Jawans had lost their lives. State constantly acknowledges the demands of PTM but PTM and its virtual diaspora have failed to acknowledge the efforts made by the state.

Pashtun makes up to 15% of the total population of Pakistan. What will happen if this number of population, a province indeed is brought in confrontation with the state? It will be enough to vandalize the socioeconomic fabric of Pakistan. Pashtuns of Pakistan have always been delicate segment of Pakistan as they were in the crossfire between Pakistan’s efforts against eradicating terrorism. It makes them soft target and vulnerable to be used by animosities against Pakistan. The point to ponder is that despite the efforts, and acknowledgement of their grievances by the state why this matter is getting more intense whereas the fact should not be forgotten that both parties are on same line in terms of addressing the problem. The only way this can be resolved is when the PTM stop being patsy against Pakistan and show real concern to give solace to the Pashtun community rather than exploiting their grievances

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South Asia

RSS: Grim Reality under the Secular Veil of India

Syed Nasir Hassan

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Religious extremism is not something novel to mankind. Between 132-136 CE, Romans faced the confrontation with the Jews. A Jew extremist, Simon Bar Kokhba, led the revolt against Romans known as Kokhba Revolution. He succeeded in establishing a Jew state which lasted for just three years, ultimately falling again in to Roman hands.

Under constitutional veil almost every other nation has some sort of religious or ethno extremist factions in their ranks with mass support. India too, which claims to be a true secular model in the subcontinent has their own version of extremist militia and what is worth worrying is that it is well organized and well structured.

RSS or Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is an extremist Hindu vigilante militia which is being nurtured by many political hands. It came into existence in 1925 by Keshav Baliram Hedgewar – a Hindu nationalist. Initially it was established to retaliate against the British raj and Muslims and unite Hindus to devise a Hindu Rashtra (Hindu nation) but in post-independence scenario it became a blot on the secular veil of India. Indian Constitution makes it a secular country but RSS finds it against the norms of Hindustan. It is not the RSS which shifted its discourse but it was India which became a secular state by constitution. Even before the inception of RSS various Hindu nationalist emphasized on the existence of solely Hindu nation. Vinayak Damodar Savarkar,the founder of Hindu nationalist ideology Hindutva (an ideology which aims to form hegemony of Hindus) stated that there is a dire need of a solely Hindu nation.

RSS was banned three times in its post-independence continuity. First it was banned in 1948 after the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi by a Hindu nationalist. The interesting fact is the man named Nathuram Godse, who murdered Gandhi, was not an active RSS member at that time but was once. In 1975 RSS came into scrutiny again when Indra Gandhi banned extremist organizations and imposed emergency across the country, and then in 1992 when dispute over Babri masjid erupted and it got demolished.

But what is making the organization function with full momentum? The organization has a fully functional website where one can recruit itself in the organization. Its proper hierarchical order makes it worth worrying as there is a National leader and then there are Regional leaders to oversee the local dealings. It also conducts daily quasi military exercises in parks and open spaces. On many occasions, the members of RSS were involved in the lynching of Muslims and lower casts Hindus. RSS’s Cow protection squad was constantly involved in various incidents during Modi’s reign.

Indian Prime minister, Narendra Modi, during an interview revealed that the personality and the discipline he has, RSS played a major role in shaping it. He also said that he became part of the organization at very young age. RSS also played major role in the putting the throne of Delhi under the Modi’s feet and is again playing a major role in running his election campaign for upcoming elections.

The institutionalized structure of the RSS makes it unique as it has a Cow protection squad, women wing, Labor union and a farmer union to outreach mass population. On its website, they claim that they have more than 50,000 shakhas, a Hindi word for branches, in villages and different cities across the country. Utar-pardesh, a city with largest population in India and major electoral club in the lower house; it is reported that there are 8000 shakahs only in UP which are there obviously to influence the elections and win majority in the house.

Embedded hate against Muslims and other minorities is not something new, in fact, it is in the core beliefs of the organization. M.S Golwalkar, the second Sarsanghchalak (head of RSS) wrote a book named Bunch of Thoughts which comprised of the lectures he had given to shakhas over the country. In his book he wrote that internal elements pose far greater threat to national security than outside aggressor. Golwalkar than identified three major “Internal Threats: i) Muslims; ii) Christians; iii) Communists. Not just this, in an article published in THE HINDU on November 26,2006 it was revealed that the murder of Mahatma Gandhi was somehow celebrated by the RSS. Moreover, giving reference to the secret documents which he had seen the writer divulged that Golwalker had called a meeting on December 6, 1947, where RSS workers of Govardhan, a town not very far from Delhi. As per the police report regarding the meeting, assassination of the leading persons of the Congress was discussed to create terror and panic among the public and to get hold over them. Just after two days. Golwalkar again addressed several thousand RSS volunteers at the Rohtak Road Camp, Delhi. The police reporter notified that the RSS leader had clearly said that Sangh would not rest content until it finishes Pakistan and if anyone was a hindrance in their way they would not spare them either whether it was Nehru’s regime or any other.

Having such militant Hindu organizations flexibly working without any state censorship and proliferating into Indian society is a threat to Indian secular dream. Aimed at making India a purely Hindu state such far-right groups in subcontinent will make exclusive societies rather than inclusive. Intra-state tensions will continue to mount. Which will create the so-called nonpolitical groups like RSS propagating into the Indian society through political interference and can make India’s future bleak. With such intra-state terror groups Indian vision for secular and inclusive India will remain a chimera.

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South Asia

IMF bailout package and public opinion

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The 22nd bailout package for Pakistan at its final stages. There exists a mix of public opinion on this package, some are in favor and some differ. Both lobbies have own reasons and strong justifications, which makes a common man even more confused.

PM Imran Khan was criticizing previous governments for seeking IMF bailout packages in the past and expressed that he will not go to IMF, and may prefer suicide over begging. In the early few months of his Government, he was hesitant to go to the IMF and tried his best to seek help from friendly countries alternatively. Some of the friendly countries extended helping hands too, which includes Saudi Arabia, UAE, and China.

But the economic situation was so serious and dangerous that the country was at the edge of collapse or default. Still some of his advisors of the opinion that there exist other options instead of going to IMF. The deal under consideration is US Dollars 6 billion over a period of 39 months. It means less than 2 billion a year, which it really too little. If we control our imports of luxury items and un-necessary item, we may reduce our import bill by US Dollars 5 Billion easily. Or with a little bite of our efforts, we may be able to increase our exports by US Dollars 5 Billion easily. Some experts are thinking only for US Dollars 2 billion a year, we should not accept the harsh terms and conditions of IMF.

In the 7 decades history of Pakistan, 21 prgrammes of IMF were not good enough to make Pakistan a sustainable economy. Why one should expect, this 22nd will do something good. During the previous 21 programmes, Pakistan was a very close non-NATO ally of USA. Pakistan was on the right side of the US, a partner in Cold War Era, Front Line State in War on Terror. Politically, Pakistan was one of the favorite nations of the US and secured all possible support.  But today the situation may be rather different, as, after the Abbottabad Incident and Salala Incident in 2011, Western World has almost written-off Pakistan. USA has signed Major Defense Partner (MDP) agreement with India. The USA has created the Indo-Pacific Alliance with India, Japan, and Australia, to counter China, where Pakistan is engaged with China under BRI/ CPEC.

Against the tradition, people of Pakistan have voted Imran Khan, who so ever was given ticket of PTI, the public has voted him or her blindly in good faith & trust to Imran Khan. A few of his candidates might not be having very high capabilities or very good reputation, but, the public has trusted Imran Khan blindly. Imran Khan is the third most popular leader in Pakistan, after Jinnah the father of nation, and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, the Former Prime Minister of Pakistan in 1970s.

Unfortunately, he failed to form his own team and was depending on a team lobbying for IMF, World Bank or Western World. They have encircled him and kept on lobbying for their agenda. They finally pushed him to a stage, where he agreed to accept IMF. Close to him, sources think, he was never convinced but was made to accept. We are afraid, if this lobby can isolate him from nationalists and patriots, may succeed in the implementation of their agenda.

PM Imran Khan, is honest, hardworking and people loving leader. He loves Pakistan and common citizens of Pakistan. He really wanted to bring a change in the Society, where common man’s welfare is a top agenda. He is sincere with the nation and wanted to establish a total comprehensive welfare state. Unfortunately, he was lobbied wrongly and opted for IMF.

People of Pakistan have blindly trusted in Imran Khan and possess very high expectations from him. I know, Imran Khan understands it very well. He is an honest, brave and visionary leader and I believe he will not disappoint his voters.

Hope PM Imran Khan may educate people of Pakistan about the details of the IMF package and try to convince the masses. The welfare of common man and all other promises made with the nation before elections may be explained to masses, this is required urgently before he loses credibility and popularity among the masses.

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