Connect with us

Europe

The Saga of Kosovo

Published

on

After Serbia has successfully lobbied on the general assembly of Interpol that self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo does not become member in this organization, the Western Balkans is again heated up. Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj responded by increasing tariffs for 100% on goods from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Despite the fact that Kosovo(UNMIK) is a signatory of Central European Free Trade Agreement, Haradinaj’s latest move caused a lukewarm reaction of the West. However, stability in the Balkans is mostly shaken by the decision to transform the Kosovo Security Forces into the Kosovo Army. This latest move by the Kosovo’s Government is yet another gross violation of UN Resolution 1244. The skepticism towards the formation of the military was also expressed by Russia, stressing that such a move undermines stability in the Balkans and that it is in contradiction with UN Security Council Resolution 1244, according to which on Kosovo only permitted international military force is KFOR.

The recent formation of the Kosovo Army has once again demonstrated the extent to which the Balkans is unstable. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that the decision for the transition of the Kosovo Security Forces to Kosovo Armed Forces were made despite concerns expressed by the Alliance and that he “regrets that decision“.

“While the transition of the KSF is in principle a matter for Kosovo to decide, we have made clear that this move is ill-timed. NATO supports the development of the KSF under its current mandate. With the change of mandate, the North Atlantic Council will now have to re-examine the level of NATO`s egagement with the KSF – under the current mandate. With the change of mandate, the North Atlantic Council will have to re-examine the level of NATO`s engagement with the KSF“, Stoltenberg said.

By transforming the army, Kosovo will increase the number of soldiers to 5,000 and will have 3,000 reservists. Kosovo will have free hands for the purchase of military weapons, from heavy-machine guns, through combat armored vehicles and various types of missile systems. Certainly, a helicopter component can be expected, with a small amount of armor and heavy artillery. Kosovo will most likely get modern antitank missile systems and man-portable air-defense systems, which is a treat to low-flying aircrafts, especially helicopters.

For the Kosovo Serbs, Kosovo Army is primarily a source of fear because of the 2004 pogrom, which essentially was an act of ethnic cleasing, according to Admiral Gregory G. Johnson, then commander of NATO forces in southern Europe. From 17 to 19 March 2004, a large number of Serbs and other non-Albanian population was expelled, their houses burned and Serb cultural and historical monuments were desecrated. It is estimated that more than 4,000 people were expelled from their homes across Kosovo, 28 people were killed, more than 900 people were beaten and severely injured, 19 monuments of the first category and 16 Orthodox churches were destroyed. Also, Albanians destroyed about 10,000 valuable frescoes, icons, and many other church relics, as well as data on births, marriages and deaths, which testify to the centuries-long duration of the Serbs in Kosovo. Serbs were ethnically cleansed from six towns and nine villages. The pogrom also showed that NATO did not want to protect Serbs in Kosovo.

Today, the main problem for the Serbian Government is that Kosovo Army will occupy north of Kosovo. Because of frequent tensions in Kosovo, Serbian Army is equipped with modern weapons and trained rapid reaction forces, known as project 1500. Also Serbian Army purchased 4 assault Mi-35M helicopters, 6 light transport and attack helicopters H145M and 3 transport Mi-17 helicopters. The aim is to protect the Serbs in northern Kosovo. With this equipment, Serbia will be able to quickly deploy smaller, light land forces to critical points of unrest. Basically, the Kosovo army today or in the future will not be able to confront with the Serbian army, which is the strongest armed forces in the Western Balkans. Army of Kosovo was made for blitzkrieg. The goal is to quickly invade the north of Kosovo, occupied it and then with the help of NATO not allow the Serbian Army to respond.

Regarding Kosovo everyone is dissatisfied. Kosovo Albanians were promised everything, and they got little. There is no membership in the United Nations or in the European Union. Unemployment, corruption and crime are high, which is one of reasons why there is no visa liberalization. Also, on Kosovo there is no significant investments. On the other hand, sponsors of an independent Kosovo are also dissatisfied. In Kosovo, for almost 20 years, Albanians have failed to create a law-governed state. The West has invested heavily in building Kosovo institutions, but the results are poor. Approximately 190 Kosovo Albanians are still in Syria and Iraq and are part of terrorist organizations, or have been arrested there, while a total of about 315 Kosovo Albanians fought for the Islamic state in Middle East. In the State Department report from 2017, it was noted growing threat of Islamic terrorism in Kosovo, and warned that Kosovo is one of neuralgic points in Europe on the issue of Islamic radicalism. Even the Western media started to speak openly about this problem.

Vucic’s policy towards Kosovo

The reaction of Serbian authorities to the recent decisions of Kosovo, apart from verbal condemnations, were lukewarm. The request for an urgent session of the Security Council came first from Russia and then from Serbia. In spite of the fact that Serbia had a wide range of responses to the formation of the Kosovo Army, everything remained at the verbal level. In his speech at the Security Council session, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic did not mention the Kumanovo agreement which involves the return of 1000 Serbian soldiers and police officers at Kosovo. In his two statements at the session, he had not even asked the Security Council to revoke the decision on the establishment of Kosovo Army. He asked the Security Council to abolish the tax rate of 100% on goods from Serbia, but not the abolition of Kosovo Army. In his speech, Aleksandar Vucic also said that in Kosovo lives 1,700,000 Albanians, and if today is clear that this number is multiplied. According to the official data of the Central Election Commission of the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo, on the last elections in Kosovo voted only 470,000 citizens and of that, 50,000 Serbs. It should be added that in Kosovo because of widespread corruption, there is a strong discipline over the election, so that the majority of the population go to the polls. In addition to the fact that he has increased the number of Albanians significantly, Vucic reduced the number of Serbs. Serbian president stated that 100,000 Serbs lives in Kosovo in spite of the fact that KFOR claims that 120,000 Serbs lives in Kosovo. In addition, the Serbian List, which is under the control of the official Belgrade, do not leave neither Kosovo Parliament nor the Government of Kosovo.

What characterizes the reign of Alexandar Vucic is defeatism, especially regarding the issue of Kosovo. As a result, the emigration of Serbs from Kosovo, especially to the south of the Ibar, has increased. The reason for such a policy is Vucic’s view that Kosovo should be divided. For this plan he has the support from Hashim Thaci, president of self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo. Today, on Kosovo, regarding the negotiations with Serbia, there are two blocs. The first, led by Hashim Thaci, is in favor of the exchange of territories (division), likely Northern Kosovo for Serbia’s Presevo Valley. On the other side, Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj is strongly against this plan, responding that such an action would only destabilize the region and lead to war. The main reason why Ramush Haradinaj strongly opposes the division is because of the assessment that Albanians can occupy northern Kosovo. Bearing in mind that the special police of Kosovo so far repeatedly invaded the north of Kosovo, it is realistic to expect that the same in future will be done by Kosovo Army. The only dilemma for Haradinaj is whether the Serbian Army will react. On the other hand, Tachi wants to solve the north Kosovo issue through dialogue with Aleksandar Vucic. This agreement would be catastrophic for Serbia, because Serbia would renounce part of its territory. Consequently, it would encourage other national minorities to take that path. The remaining Serbs in Kosovo would experience an exodus.

First published in our partner International Affairs

Continue Reading
Comments

Europe

Albanian question in the Balkans

Published

on

The Greater Albania project, which dates back to the 19th century is an idea of the unification of all Albanians into one state. Namely, the Prizren League then demanded the recognition of the national identity of Albanians and the autonomy of Albania within the Ottoman Empire. Today, Albanians live in two countries Albania and Kosovo and in neighboring countries Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Greece. The scenario of Great Albania includes separation of Western Macedonia (Struga, Kucevo, Debar, Tetovo, Gostivar, Kumanovo, part of capital Skopje) and then the other parts in the Balkans with the Albanian population, cities in southern Serbia (Presevo, Bujanovac and part of Medvedja), southern and eastern parts of Montenegro (the municipality of Ulcinj, and parts of the municipalities of Bar, Plav, Rozaje, Gusinje and Tuzi), as well as Greek southern Epirus. If necessary, these borders can be reduced if it turns out that it is impossible to create them in this form. Since the fall of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Albanian factor is among the main actor of instability in the Balkans. At the same time, Albanian political elite is the most loyal servant of the United States interests in the Balkans.

What makes Albanian politics in the Balkans recognizable is manipulation with their demography. One of the main weapons of Albanians is their birth rate. That is, the figures for which they claim to be the only accurate. With the support of United States, the number of Albanians in the region is is constantly adjusted, in line with the geopolitical interests of the West . It is therefore necessary to look at the real situation with the number of Albanians in the region. After decades of increasing the number of Albanians in Serbia, under the blessing of Yugoslav communists and the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, in 2011 census was carried out in Kosovo*. Final results for 2011 census showed that Kosovo (excluding North Kosovo) has 1, 739, 825 inhabitants. North Kosovo is dominantly populated by Serbs. Prior to the census, in the West was estimated that Kosovo had a population of about 2, 200, 000 inhabitants. The latest US Central Intelligence Agency estimate is that on Kosovo in July 2016 lived 1, 883, 018 inhabitants. However, in reality, all these data are artificially increased. According to the expert estimates, in Kosovo there are fewer than 1, 300, 000 inhabitants, including at least 150,000 inhabitants which are not Albanians. This assessment was based on the analysis of telephone traffic and mobile telephone connections per capita in Kosovo. However, what everyone agrees with is the fact that number of Albanians is rapidly decreasing in Kosovo. The main reason for that is high poverty and corruption. According to the information provided by the Kosovo secret service in the Kosovo parliament, just in December 2015 and January 2016, Kosovo has left more than 50,000 Albanians, including 6,000 elementary school students. Some media, however, stated that more than 100,000 people have fled from Kosovo since August 2015 until February 2016, but that officials hide this information, while others claim that this number is significantly higher, and that it exceeds 6% of the total population of the province. In that period the emigration reached a peak, but in smaller numbers was continued to this day. The situation is similar in Albania.

Officialy Albania is one of the most homogeneous countries in the Balkans, but in reality things look different. According to the 2011 census, Albanians made 2, 312, 356 (82.6%) of Albanian population, Greeks 24, 243 (0.9%), Macedonians 5, 512 (0.2%), Montenegrins 366 (0.01%), Aromanians 8, 266 (0.30%), Romani 8, 301 (0.3%), Balkan Egyptians 3, 368 (0.1%), and others 2, 644 (0.1%). Around 14% or 390,938 did not declared ethnicity and 44, 144 (1.6%) were not relevant. The census was accompanied by numerous complaints about irregularities.

According to estimates of Serbian organizations, in Albania lives more than 30, 000 Serbs, mostly in northern Albania. Most manipulations Albanian Government is doing about the number of Greeks. The real figure of the Greeks in Albania is 200, 000, and neutral Western experts also agree with that number. It should be pointed out that the Greek Government claims 300, 000 Greeks live in Albania. Unfortunately for Greek population, the US Government considers that 1.17% of Greeks live in Albania, although they know that number is inaccurate. In Albania also there is also a lot of emigration due to crime, corruption, and poor governance of the state. Since the fall of communism in early nineties until 2015, one million inhabitants has left Albania.

In southern Serbia, on the 2002 census, the Presevo municipality had 31, 098 Albanians and something below 4, 000 non-Albanians, the municipality of Bujanovac – 23, 681 Albanians and 19, 000 of non-Albanians, and the municipality of Medvedja something below 8, 000 Serbs and 2, 816 Albanians. The Albanians boycotted the population census in 2011 because over 30, 000 Albanians migrated from Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja municipalities to the West, which means that the ethnic structure changed. Representatives of Serbian associations from these 3 municipalities point out that the data, taken as official, are forged and that in this 3 municipalities live only half Albanians from official data. Local Serbs claim that under the municipality of Bujanovac there are currently under 12, 000 Albanians, which is twice as low as the 2002 census, which is only relevant to Albanians.

President of the Coordination Body for Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja municipalities Zoran Stankovic said that the state is considering a new census, but that it is still early for the date of its maintenance, because it is necessary to prepare everything well. Mr. Stankovic stated this in 2013, but to this day, nothing has been done on this issue. The Serbs from Bujanovac claim that political discrimination in on the scene by playing with the number of Albanian inhabitants, which is why they have become citizens of the second order in their own country and expect the state to regulate the voters lists, which, they say, are filled with falsified names and non existent citizens.”We ask the government to adopt a program to stop the forced eviction of the non-Albanian population from Bujanovac – said Svetislav Velickovic from the Bujanovac Committee on Human Rights. – Of the total of 12 management functions in the city, 11 are occupied by Albanians. The Cyrillic alphabet is expelled, as is the Serbian language in communication with the local self-government. The toponyms are a special story, since in 2014 a decision was made to expel the giants of Serbian history from street signs and to replace them with terrorists from Kosovo Liberation Army. At the same time, such claims have been blackmailed in Macedonia also, where Albanians have territorial pretensions.

According to the 2002 census in Macedonia, Albanians account for 25% of the population. The census from 2011, Albanians boycotted after ten days of enumeration. Macedonian law forbids that citizens living abroad more than a year can be enumerated . Since a significant number of Albanians left Macedonia and went to the West, the real number of Albanians living in Macedonia would be shown. In that time ruling national-conservative Macedonian party VMRO-DPMNE drawn attention that there was manipulation in the census at that time. According to their data, 120, 000 Albanians who have not lived in Macedonia for long time were enumerated. And that is a significant problem. The Ohrid Agreement from 2001, which ended the armed conflict between Albanian separatists and armed forces of the Macedonian state has basis in the 2002 census. Under that agreement members of national minorities, primarily Albanian, are guaranteed greater political influence, both at the state and local levels. In places where they account for more than 20 % of the population, Albanians had received more rights in local government. There has also been an artificial increase of Albanians in Macedonia. After the NATO aggression against Serbia and Montenegro, a large number of Albanians from Kosovo went to Macedonia. According to some estimates of the UN and others organizations, about 300,000 Albanians went to Macedonia. Permanent refuge in Macedonia, from then until now, has found about 150,000 Albanians who received Macedonian citizenship. This also significantly influenced the ethnic structure of Macedonia.

According to the 2011 census, 30, 439 Albanians live in Montenegro. And they make up 4.91% of the Montenegrin population. In Montenegro, the Albanians complain that they are discriminated, although they have all rights. As in neighboring countries, they have also tried to cause problems in Montenegro. In anti – terrorist operation “Eagle`s flight” which was conducted by the Montenegrin police, was arrested a group of Albanians who planned terrorist attacs and an armed conflict in Albanian – inhabited parts of Montenegro. The group which was arrested in 2006 was sentenced on 51 year in prison. The group main goal was to “violate the constitutional order and security of Montenegro”, “cause instability, religious and national intolerance” and “endanger lives, property, religious and cultural facilities” stated Montenegrin Government.

Since US geopolitically conquered the Balkans, the Albanian question has again become open. The history of Albanian activity from the end of the 20th century is important because it shows us all the hypocrisy of Western powers. And if West officially stands for democracy, justice and protection of all religious and ethnic communities, on example of their allies in the Balkans, we can see that things do not work that way. When NATO carried out the aggression against Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) in 1999, and after the signing of a military technical agreement in city of Kumanovo, the Serbian Army withdrew from Kosovo. And there we could see all the essence of US and NATO. Everything what happen later was with the approval of US. And in Kosovo, under NATO control happened terrible things.

Since the arrival of NATO in Kosovo, more than 250,000 non-Albanians have been expelled. In other words, ethnic cleansing was carried out. On 17 March 2004, under the eyes of NATO troops, Kosovo Albanians started attack against Kosovo Serbs. That was the largest unrest since war on Kosovo 1998 – 1999. The official reason for unrest was the drowning of two Albanian children in a river in the village of Cabra, for whose death the Albanian media and politicians blamed Serbs from a neighboring village Zupca. In fact, it was just an exuse for ethnic cleansing of Serbs. Everything was done with the tacit approval of the West. During the unrest it is estimated that some 4,000 Serbs were expelled from their homes throughout Kosovo. During the pogrom, 28 people were killed, 35 Orthodox monasteries were destroyed or desecrated, and about 930 Serbian homes were burned and destroyed. In addition to public condemnations of all international actors, many participants have remained unpunished to this date. A small group that was punished, was punished with a smashingly low penalties.

The same thing happened in Macedonia. On August 31, 2001, Aleksandar Damovski, director of the most circulating Macedonian daily Dnevnik, gave the following information for the portal “BH Dani”: ”Currently in Macedonia there are 60,000 Macedonians outside their homes, not with their own will. They were expelled from their own homes by Albanian extremists operating in the territory of Macedonia. The pressure on Macedonians, on the territory where the Albanian minority is in the majority, is getting bigger and bigger every day. Macedonians in Tetovo and Gostivar are locked in their homes, they can not get out…”

Basically, the Albanian question is artificially imposed. Today, the Greater Albania project is not just an extremist idea, but a project that enjoys the support of the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France and can count on the support of some Islamic circles. So far, US has invested heavily in the project of Greater Albania, so it is not realistic to expect changes on this issue in US policy. Namely, the US project of the creation of a large Albania has entered in the active phase after the breakup of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Since than to the present days has been implemented by military and diplomatic means.

Of course, there is a history of US and NATO engagement in the Balkans and should be payed attention to several key points:

1. The role of US and NATO in civil wars in Croatia and Bosnia, active fight against Serbs as well as sanctions against Serbia, which significantly weakened Serbia.

2. NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999, and occupation of Kosovo.

3. A colour revolution that took place in Serbia on 5th October 2000, that meant a quiet occupation of Serbia, with wich started the destruction of powerful Serbian army, that in the war had embarrassed NATO.

4. A short war in Macedonia and Ohrid Agreement which was imposed to Macedonians, as a US project that began the process of “political” reforms in Macedonia through constitutional changes and the adoption of a number of new laws that provided much greater power to Albanians in Macedonia.

5. The US support of Montenegrin independence, which has weakened Serbia. With the separation of Montenegro from Serbia, Serbia has lost its access to the sea.  

6. US played a key role in the declaration of Kosovo`s independence in 2008, although that was contrary to international law. 

In both Albanian states today as earlier, there is a rule of crime and corruption. The logical question is why so much interest has US and some other Western powers in supporting the creation of a Greater Albania. The answer is in geopolitics and history. Great Albania is needed by the West as another whip against the Serbs. Because, Serbs in the eyes of Western historians and geopoliticians are the Balkan Russians. Far in 1876, during the time of the Serbian-Turkish war, Benjamin Disraeli, the president of the British government, accused Serbia of leading “a cold and criminal war against all the principles of public moral and honor.” He called the Serbian national liberation struggle “a Serbian conspiracy which is helped by Russian money and Russian soldiers”. He rejoiced at every Serbian defeat, and in the autumn of 1877 he suggested to the Austrians to occupy Serbia. Serbophobia, which prevails almost two centuries in the minds of strategists in London, occurred for one reason – the fear that the Serbs are “the main drivers of Russian Cossacks in the warm waters of the Mediterranean”. That is why since the outbreak of the First Serbian Uprising the main direction of British foreign policy was to preserve the territorial integrity of Turkey.

In achieving this goal, Great Britain today has the absolute support of the United States of America. The West, first of all United States and Great Britain, pursuses its policy in the Balkans, which for aim has a constant weakening of the Serbs. That’s why the West strongly supports Great Albania.

To make an end to disastrous US and British politics in the Balkans it is needed a stronger presence of Russia and China in the Balkans, primarily in Serbia. Strong Serbia is the best prevention of Greater Albania. Russia has done a lot in that direction, but still insufficiently. The cooperation of Russia and Serbia in terms of military cooperation has been raised to a much higher level. Today, in the Western Balkans, Serbia has the strongest military. But economic cooperation is not good enough. Russian investments in Serbia are primarily in the energy sector, which is a strategic sector for Russia, but with energy cooperation, investments in Serbian agriculture are needed. With investments in Serbian agriculture, Russia would strategically consolidate its position in Serbia. At the diplomatic field, it is necessary to block any solution for Kosovo, which is not in accordance with UN Resolution 1244.  Without independent Kosovo, the project of Greater Albania is impossible.

First published in our partner International Affairs

Continue Reading

Europe

The European Union and the East Wind

Dr. Andrey KORTUNOV

Published

on

One characteristic trait of modern life is that the key global actors are much more focused on their own domestic problems than on international issues. This propensity for political introspection (some may even call it political autism syndrome) is present, to some extent, in the U.S., Russia, China, and India. However, it is particularly characteristic of the European Union, which currently has to simultaneously deal with Brexit, prepare for the upcoming European Parliament elections, restore financial discipline in the eurozone, and reconcile differing views on migration issues along with many other urgent and extremely important domestic issues. It is clear that Brussels is running out of time to come up with a common pan-European foreign policy.

However, the EU by its very nature is much more dependent on the surrounding world than the U.S., China, or Russia. In this sense, Brussels cannot really afford any manifestations of even selective isolationism. If the EU is not prepared to deal with external forces, then these external forces are quite prepared to deal with the EU. One good example here is China’s increased interest in Europe. In late 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Madrid and Lisbon; rumour has it that he is going to visit Rome and Paris in the near future, and he is speeding up preparations for two multilateral summits in 2019: with the EU as a whole and in the 16+1 format (China plus 16 countries of Central Europe and the Balkans).

“The east wind prevails over the west wind,” Mao Zedong said at a meeting of communist and labour parties in Moscow in November 1957. Sixty years ago, this formula was perceived in Europe as poetic hyperbole. Today, Europe cannot afford to neglect the east wind, which is gaining more strength each year, penetrating all the windows and crevices in the European building, swaying the unstable European structures, slamming doors in the Brussels corridors of power, and forcing European leaders to shiver in the draught and seek reliable shelter.

Experts and politicians in the EU are currently discussing ways to protect Europe from yet another Chinese advance. It is believed that China is going to use the EU’s soft “Mediterranean underbelly” in order to disrupt the already fragile European unity. Beijing apparently is seeking to gain control over European transport and energy infrastructure as well as establish control over the most promising European technology companies. There are fears that China will begin interfering more actively with political processes in European countries.

How justified are these fears? Is Brussels doomed to negotiate with Beijing from a position of weakness? After all, China needs Europe no less than Europe needs China. The EU with its five hundred million consumers remains the world’s largest market. Europe is the ultimate geographic target of China’s flagship Belt and Road project. Europe is the most important source of investment, management models, and social practices for China. Moreover, as Chinese-U.S. trade, economic, and political relations are worsening, the EU has taken on increased importance for China.

China is certainly a difficult and uncompromising partner. Its tactics include the ability to delay negotiations endlessly, return again and again to discussing general provisions, minimise its obligations, leave room for different interpretations of agreements already reached, and so on. The U.S., especially under the current administration, prefers twisting its partners’ arms in a rough and unequivocal manner, whereas China aims to outsit its partners and possibly avoid any unpleasant confrontation. One good example of China’s tactics is the Chinese-EU talks on mutual investments, which have not been particularly successful so far.

Nevertheless, in the current situation Beijing and Brussels are equally interested in attaining a new level of cooperation. Common sense suggests that the parties should demonstrate maximum flexibility, understand each other’s priorities, take into account the partner’s red lines, and be willing to make mutual concessions.

Both parties must resist obvious temptations. China is tempted to take advantage of the EU’s current problems and weaknesses in order to achieve tactical advantages in its relations with Brussels. Europe is tempted to demonstrate, once again, its unfailing loyalty to Washington by mechanistically replicating the U.S. position in trade and economic negotiations with Beijing.

Of course, it is unlikely that all tension in EU-Chinese relations will be eliminated in the coming months or even years. However, even symbolic positive changes would send an important signal to everyone.

This would be a signal to the Donald Trump administration, which needs to realise that it can no longer dictate the rules of the game in the global economy to the rest of the world.

It would also be a signal to Russian leaders, who need to understand that the idea of the contemporary world as an inevitable confrontation between the “aggregate West” and the “aggregate non-West” is not consistent with reality.

This would also be a signal to the entire international community, which very much needs to receive confirmation that the current fragmenting of the world economy and the rise of protectionism and economic nationalism are not a long-term path for development but merely a temporary, and by no means universal, deviation from the irreversible process of globalisation.

Most importantly, successful negotiations with China would send a very important signal to Europe at a time when such a signal is particularly needed: on the eve of the historic European Parliament elections, when the pressure being applied by Eurosceptics and right-wing populists to mainstream parties is growing every day.

The growing east wind means a new challenge for the European project, but it is not the end of the world. As Mao noted, “When the wind of change blows, some people build walls, others build windmills”.

First published in our partner RIAC

Continue Reading

Europe

The Problems With Brexit

Dr. Arshad M. Khan

Published

on

Does anyone remember Nigel Farage?  He led the UK Independence Party and the ‘leave’ EU vote — along with his last minute ally Boris Johnson who hoped to push himself up to prime minister.  Farage is still around as a Member of the European Parliament representing south-east England, a job soon to be redundant when Britain leaves the EU.  Boris is still in parliament … and still unlikely to be prime minister.

In the meantime, there is no clear majority for any deal in the British parliament.  A major sticking point is Northern Ireland, an integral part of the UK.  Leaving the European customs union would mean a border in Ireland separating the north from the rest.  This is anathema to the Irish who have become used to living with an open border.  The Northern Island MPs in Westminster will vote as a block against any deal that does not maintain it. 

But the majority of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives want out of the EU customs union.  Hence the deal she came up with, which was to make the Irish Sea a border.  It meant leaving Northern Ireland in the customs union (i.e. an open border) and the rest of Britain outside.  Unfortunately for her, a parliamentary majority including the opposition Labor party were against such a customs division within the UK that might also in the future bring Northern Ireland closer to Europe.

One of the principal motivators for Farage’s UKIP and its allies is seldom discussed.  It has much in common with the reason for Donald Trump’s wall, and it was the reason the first British politician meeting the newly minted. President Trump was Nigel Farage.  Trump had in mind his prospective wall, and after winning the ‘leave’ vote Farage had the English Channel; both barriers for the unwanted:  Escapees from the chaos (often US caused as in Honduras) in Central America in one case; southern and eastern European migrants in the other after the EU embraced these new countries. 

The desperation of many of these migrants forced to remain on the Mexico side of the US border was poignantly evident in a documentary broadcast on March 12 by the Public Television network on its evening PBS Newshour program.  The processing slowdown engineered by this administration, blamed on lack of staff, has caused waiting times in months.  Little children have to beg during the day and single mothers sell themselves at night for families to have food to eat.

After losing the vote on the deal she had negotiated, Ms. May brought forward a vote on a no-deal exit.  Amended to a no-deal ever, the motion was defeated, as was a subsequent one on a simple no-deal; this time by an even larger majority.  The day following, she actually won a vote:  the government won a motion to ask the EU for a Brexit extension from March 29 to June 30, if the May deal passes next week.  Otherwise they will have to request a longer delay.

How fractious the issue is, was evident.  Half of Mrs. May’s Conservative Party voted against her including eight ministers; a Labor Party amendment for a second Brexit referendum was voted down 85 to 334 after many labor members including some shadow ministers voted against, tendering their resignations as a result.  Parliament and the country are split on the issue.

Meanwhile, Donald Tusk, the Polish president of the EU Council, announced he is in favor of a long extension and will ask EU leaders to consider it.  Also Germany is in favor of a soft Brexit.  Perhaps the one million Poles now in Britain and Germany’s exports have something to do with it.

Continue Reading

Latest

Travel & Leisure5 hours ago

Only on Langkawi: An Insider’s Guide to the Most Coveted Langkawi Pursuits

Whether in search of wanderlust, culture, or relaxation, Four Seasons Resort Langkawi showcases a bespoke collection of experiences that captures...

Urban Development7 hours ago

Smart cities hold the key to sustainable development

Asia and the Pacific’s phenomenal development has been a story of rapid urbanization. As centres of innovation, entrepreneurship and opportunity,...

Style9 hours ago

Time and Place

OMEGA celebrates three great cities and the Swiss brand’s home country with a collection of exclusive boutique watches for passionate...

Newsdesk11 hours ago

SDGs and Her Initiative Announces Winners of 2019 Global Competition

Today, the global SDGs and Her Competition announced the winners of the 2019 global competition. The contest– co-sponsored by the World Bank Group,...

Defense13 hours ago

India Acquiring Thermonuclear Weapons: Where Is The Global Outcry?

The atomic bomb revolutionized modern warfare not by enabling the mass slaughter of civilians but by vastly increasing its efficiency—the...

South Asia15 hours ago

China’s Diplomatic Tightrope Amidst Rising Indo-Pak Tensions

Since the dramatic rise in Indo-Pak tensions earlier this month, the entire South Asian region has once again been propelled...

Europe17 hours ago

Albanian question in the Balkans

The Greater Albania project, which dates back to the 19th century is an idea of the unification of all Albanians...

Trending

Copyright © 2019 Modern Diplomacy