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Investments in People Critical for Future Growth

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Decision makers along with representatives from civil society and the private sector from Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and other Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries will convene today in Tunis to debate the findings of two recently-released World Bank reports that call for more investments in people to prepare for the economies of the future. The reports argue for greater investments in health and education, and more effective social protection systems, as critical for adapting to the changes caused by disruptive technologies and seizing the opportunities they create.

The event, chaired by the Head of Government of Tunisia, Youssef Chahed and the World Bank Vice-President for MENA, Ferid Belhaj, will aim to engage in an in-depth conversation around an ambitious roadmap to upgrade education and training outcomes. The 2019 World Development report (WDR), titled “The Changing Nature of Work” shows that digital technologies are driving the demand for advanced cognitive skills, socio-behavioral skills, and adaptability in labor markets. The digital economy, particularly through platform firms, also presents an opportunity to create the conditions for more jobs. The ride-hailing app Careem has grown into a billion-dollar company and created jobs for thousands across the region. As location is less important for platform-based firms, they offer opportunities for people in less developed areas. However, countries in the region will need to expand access to broadband and digital payments to ensure everyone has access to technology to unlock the opportunities offered by a global digital economy.

The report also features the new Human Capital Index, released last October in Bali, which provides countries with a way of measuring the impact of their investments in the health and education of their populations on future productivity. MENA countries performed poorly compared to peers, due in particular to weak learning outcomes.

Even though MENA countries have been spending large shares of their budgets on education and have achieved remarkable progress on boosting access, students are graduating without the skills in demand by the labor market. University graduates are now more likely to be unemployed than people with lower qualifications,” said Ferid Belhaj, World Bank Vice-President for the MENA region. “The World Bank strategy for MENA focuses on helping equip the youth of the region, those of today and tomorrow’s youth, so they can reach their ambitions and contribute to the sustained and virtuous development of their countries.

The new flagship report titled Expectations and Aspirations: A New Framework for Education in MENA calls for curricula to shift away from memorization and rote-learning, to focus more on the skills prized in the new, digital economy, such as critical thinking and problem solving. By incubating new skills and promoting innovation, Education can be an important catalyst for growth. To achieve the full potential of education, the report calls for a new framework that combines a stronger push for learning, a pull for skills, including teachers’ skills, and a pact that unites all segments of society behind the necessary reforms.

According to the WDR, if countries improve their education systems and create an enabling environment for digital innovations, disruptive technologies can be a strong driver for growth and job creation. To achieve this potential, however, social protection systems will have to adapt to the changing nature of work. New forms of protection will be needed as people change jobs more frequently and learn new skills. Employment in the digital gig economy is characterized by inherent flexibility, but also the absence of standard employer-employee contracts and traditional social protections.

Irrespective of technological progress, informality will remain a predominant feature of the region’s economies. Around 70% of workers in Morocco and 60% in Tunisia remain in low-productivity informal employment with little access to technology and no social protection. Expanding access to technology and adapting social protection systems would help countries address today’s problem of informality while adapting to prepare for the economies of the future” said Marie-Françoise Marie-Nelly, World Bank Country Director for the Maghreb and Malta.

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Wide Variations in Post-COVID ‘Return to Normal’ Expectations

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London, UK, Covid-19 restrictions in place in Soho. IMF/Jeff Moore

A new IPSOS/World Economic Forum survey found that almost 60% expect a return to pre-COVID normal within the next 12 months. including 6% who think this is already the case, 9% who think it will take no more than three months, 13% four to six months, and 32% seven to 12 months (the median time). About one in five think it will take more than three years (10%) or that it will never happen (8%).

Views on when to expect a return to normal vary widely across countries: Over 70% of adults in Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, and mainland China are confident their life will return to pre-COVID normal within a year. In contrast, 80% in Japan and more than half in France, Italy, South Korea, and Spain expect it will take longer.

At a global level, expectations about how long it will take before one’s life can return to its pre-COVID normal and how long it will take for the pandemic to be contained are nearly identical. These findings suggest that people across the world consider that being able to return to “normal” life is entirely dependent on containing the pandemic.

An average of 45% of adults globally say their mental and emotional health has gotten worse since the beginning of the pandemic about a year ago. However, one in four say their mental health has improved since the beginning of the year (23%), about as many that say it has worsened (27%).

How long before coronavirus pandemic is contained?

Similar to life returning to pre-COVID normal, 58% on average across all countries and markets surveyed expect the pandemic to be contained within the next year, including 13% who think this is already the case or will happen within 3 months, 13% between four and six months and 32% between seven and 12 months (the median time in most markets).

Majorities in India, China, and Saudi Arabia think the pandemic is already contained or will be within the next 6 months. In contrast, four in five in Japan and more than half in Australia, France, Poland, Spain, and Sweden expect it will take more than a year.

Change in emotional and mental health since beginning of the pandemic about a year ago

On average across the 30 countries and markets surveyed, 45% of adults say their emotional and mental health has gotten worse since the beginning of the pandemic about a year ago, three times the proportion of adults who say it has improved (16%)

In 11 countries, at least half report a decline in their emotional and mental health with Turkey (61%), Chile (56%), and Hungary (56%) showing the largest proportions.

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African fisheries need reforms to boost resilience after Covid-19

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The African fisheries sector could benefit substantially from proper infrastructure and support services, which are generally lacking. The sector currently grapples with fragile value chains and marketing, weak management institutions and serious issues relating to the governance of fisheries resources.

These were the findings of a study that the African Natural Resources Centre conducted from March to May 2020. The centre is a non-lending department of the African Development Bank. The study focused on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in four countries – Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal and Seychelles. The countries’ economies depend heavily on marine fisheries. The fisheries sector is also a very large source of economic activity elsewhere in Africa. It provides millions of jobs all over the continent.

The study dwells on appropriate and timely measures that the four countries have taken to avoid severe supply disruptions, save thousands of jobs and maintain governance transparency amid the ongoing global uncertainty and crisis.

Infrastructure shortcomings include landing facilities, storage and processing capacity, social and sanitary equipment, water and power, ice production, and roads to access markets.

Based on the findings, researchers made recommendations to strengthen the resilience of Africa’s fisheries sector in the context of a prolonged crisis, and looking ahead to a post-Covid-19 recovery.

The report strongly advocates for:

– Increased acknowledgment of the essential role of marine fisheries stakeholders and the right of artisanal fishermen to access financial and material resources.

– Strengthening the collection of gender-disaggregated statistical data in a sector that employs a vast number of women and youth.

– Establishing infrastructure and support services at landing and processing sites of fishery products, with priority access to water.

– Investing in human capital to ensure high-level skills in the different areas of fisheries management.

– Improving governance frameworks by encouraging the private sector and civil society to participate in formulating sectoral policies and resource management measures.

The study recommends urgent reforms to make marine fisheries more resilient and enable the sector to contribute sustainably to the wealth of the continent’s coastal countries.

Marine fisheries are a crucial contributor to food security and quality of life in Africa. Good nutrition is a key factor to quality of life, and the marine fisheries sector supports the nutrition of more than 300 million people, the majority of whom are children, youth and women. It also provides more than 10 million direct and indirect jobs.

Dominated by artisanal fishing and traditional value chains, the fisheries sector in Africa is mainly informal and is rarely considered in public policies or in assessing the wealth of countries.

Like other sectors, the African fisheries sector has been severely hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Covid has affected supply markets and regional trade. This has resulted in substantial economic losses for most households that depend on fisheries.

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Top Trends Impacting Global Economy, Society and Technology

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The new technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as artificial intelligence (AI), the cloud and robotics, are changing the way we live, learn and do business at a rate unprecedented in human history. This seismic shift is playing out in a world characterized by unreliable political landscapes and increasing environmental instability.

Scenario planning in this environment can be very difficult for businesses, affecting their ability to plan for the future, and properly assess the risks and opportunities that may present themselves. The Technology Futures report, released in collaboration with Deloitte, provides leaders with data analysis tools to scenario plan and forecast future technology trends.

“The rapid pace of technological change, alongside the global crisis caused by COVID-19, means that leaders today need new tools to understand challenges and develop strategies in the face of an increasingly uncertain future. This report provides three new analytical tools for business leaders to think about the future in a dynamic environment,” said Ruth Hickin, Strategy and Impact Lead, Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, World Economic Forum.

“We are delighted to collaborate with the World Economic Forum to take a disciplined look into the future, particularly as we emerge from a world-altering event, like COVID-19,” said Mike Bechtel, Managing Director and Chief Futurist, US Consulting, Deloitte, and lead author of the report. “We hope that by providing a clearer picture of how today’s nascent technologies will impact our future, we can play a meaningful part in driving innovation, collaboration and economic growth that improves life for all people.”

The report breaks down future trends into four categories for business leaders and provides some examples of what is likely to remain constant in the years ahead.

  • Information: With the volume of accessible data exploding and more of our personal lives lived online, the report projects the probable implications for remote learning, remote working and healthcare.
  • Locality: Since the onset of COVID-19, even more of our interpersonal interaction is virtual and physical experiences have dwindled. The report projects more niche, readily available virtual experiences available to consumers.
  • Economy: The report forecasts a growing likelihood that flexible and clean energy production will continue rising.
  • Education: Personalized education will likely grow, along with the availability of digitized and virtualized content.

In addition to strategic modelling, the report gives leaders a baseline history of how the Fourth Industrial Revolution has progressed. It highlights just how fast technology is evolving and outlines one way risk management could evolve to better address and adapt to it.

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