Malaysia’s economy is expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the near term, growing at 4.7 percent in 2019, according to the World Bank Malaysia Economic Monitor, launched today. But external factors, such as current trade tensions and increased volatility in financial and commodity markets, are weighing on Malaysia’s economy going forward.
A more uncertain external environment places a higher premium on reforms to boost resilience. Both the budget and the mid-term review of the government have specified a series of new goals and initiatives that can strengthen governance and transparency, improve public sector efficiency, and foster equitable growth.
“We are encouraged to see the Malaysian government taking measures to both preserve growth, restore fiscal buffers, and improve governance,” said Mara Warwick, Country Director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. “Such reforms will pay dividends over time, with efforts to improve not just the quantity of economic growth, but also of the quality of economic growth.”
Domestic demand continued to support the economy, with private consumption accelerating at 9.0 percent in Q3 2018 (Q2 2018: 8.0 percent) boosted by the removal of the Goods and Services Tax during that period. Momentum in private investment also grew from 6.1 percent in Q2 to 6.9 percent in Q3 2018, driven by the expansion in manufacturing and services sectors.
Restoring fiscal buffers will be crucial for the country to effectively respond to future shocks to the economy. Efforts to reform the role of the state in business would level the playing field and unlock future productivity growth. Reforms to increase the effectiveness of social safety nets have the potential to achieve greater impact with limited public resources.
This edition of the Malaysia Economic Monitor includes a special focus on human capital development. The main message of the special focus is that Malaysia will need to boost its human capital if it is to join the leading ranks of inclusive, high income nations. The World Bank’s Human Capital Index shows that in the absence of renewed efforts on human capital, a child born today in Malaysia will reach only 62 percent of potential, in terms of productivity and lifetime income.
Priority areas for improving human capital in Malaysia are learning and child nutrition. Due to limited learning in school, the 12.2 years of basic schooling expected for a child born today are equivalent to just 9.1 years in the highest performing systems—a learning gap of 3.1 years more than 1 in 5 children under age 5 is stunted, a key marker of child malnutrition, which limits cognitive development and opportunity throughout life.
The Malaysia Economic Monitor series provides an analytical perspective on the policy challenges facing Malaysia as it grows into a high-income and developed economy. The series also represents an effort to reach out to a broad audience, including policymakers, private sector leaders, civil society, and academia.