The ethnic demarcation that is promoted by Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic, between Serbs and Albanians is just another name for the creation of Greater Albania. Vucic statements and spinnings of the necessity for the “demarcation” between Serbia and Kosovo caused shock among Serbs. Most of his political life, Vucic advocated for a Greater Serbia, but with coming to power, things changed. Against his demarcation is virtually the entire Serbia. From experts to the pillar base of Serbs throughout history Serbian Orthodox Church. Despite pressure, Vucic does not give up on the division of Kosovo. In announcements, Serbia would establish severeignity in the north of Kosovo, provide guarantees for Serbs, and for the Serbian Orthodox Church south of the Ibar river and Serbia would be on an accelerated path to the EU.
The division of Kosovo would mean the redrawing of borders in the Balkans. Under the mask of the separation of Serbs and Albanians, Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic would violate the Constitution that he is obligated to protect. Although the Treaty of Brussels, signed in 2012, stipulates that Kosovo Serbs receive the Community of Serb Municipalities (ZSO), Prishtina has obstructed this part of the agreement for many years, now it has unequivocally rejected it. The Kosovo Albanians clearly said they don’t want community of Serb municipalities because they don’t want to have Kosovo’s Republic of Srpska. Changing the “boundaries” would mean that a part of the majority Serb north of Kosovo will become an integral part of Serbia, while parts of southern Serbia with Albanian majority, municipalities Preshevo and Bujanovac would be given to Kosovo. However, by such a solution, about 90% of Kosovo will be given to Albanians. Also, by such a solution, the majority of Kosovo Serbs (about 80, 000 people) and the monasteries of the Serbian Orthodox Church would remain under the authority of the Kosovo, which would surely triggered a new mass exodus in the region. Serbs from Kosovo would de facto disappear, those north of the Ibar river and those south of the Ibar river. The most fateful would be the fate of the Serbs south of the Ibar river, because they would immediately begin to emigrate.
Since the issue of Kosovo for the international community would be solved, the Albanians would find a much easier way to take away Serbian monasteries which were built in the Middle Ages. The best example for this is Montenegro, where after the separation from Serbia, the Government of Montenegro performs an open persecution of the Serbian Orthodox Church.The Montenegrin police even forbade the Serbian Orthodox Church from serving in some churches, while announcing a new law according to which all churches and monasteries of the Serbian Orthodox Church, builted before 1918, will be seized and under the jurisdiction of the Montenegrin Government. On the announcement of this shameful act of law, EU and US are silent. Serbs north of the Ibar river, as soon as they became an official part of Serbia, would no longer be important to the official Belgrade. Which means the cessation of economic aid, and therefore the beginning of the accelerated emigration. This would result in the fact that the Serbs would almost disappear in Kosovo.
The separation of Montenegro (2006) from the state union with Serbia and the proclamation of Kosovo’s independence (2007) has changed the geopolitical relations in the region stubically. Namely, the territorial “narrowing down” of Serbia has significantly weakened its influence on neighboring countries. In line with that is Vucic’s policy of demarcation with the Albanians. One of the main reasons why Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic publicly insists on demarcation is due to the entry of Serbia into the EU. However, what the European Union brought to the neighbors of Serbia, is best seen throughout Croatia. Geopotically speaking, the Eurropean Union has destroyed Croatia. Because of the possibility of free travel and work in EU, there is an exodus in Croatia. Already Croatia has decreased below 4 million inhabitants. And, according to estimates, if nothing changes, in 2030 will have less than 3 million inhabitants. In addition, Serbia would need to coordinate its foreign policy with the EU, which means it would impose sanctions against Russia.
The term „division of Kosovo“ and „the demarcation between Serbs and Albanians“ is deliberately imposed and almost turned into everyday life in Serbia. The true and only correct term is in fact the division of Serbia. Because the withdrawal and the voluntary giving of state territory does not lead to peace, precisely the opposite. It’s enough to look at the history of the Balkans, to realize and understand that with this Vucic’s proposal Pandora’s box will be opened. Because as soon as Serbia would agreed to the division with Albanians, the Republic of Srpska would soon be „on the table“, than the northern serbian province of Vojvodina and after that Sandzak region. This would result in the geopolitical capitulation of Serbia. The only logical policy on Kosovo is a frozen conflict policy. Serbia, as the strongest military force in the Western Balkans, should adhere to Unated Nations Resolution 1244 and wait for changes on the world political scene.
Albanian gain from division
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama presented the idea of a joint foreign and security policy of Albania and Kosovo, joint diplomatic missions, as well as the election of a joint president last year in the Kosovo Parliament. Relations between Kosovo and Albania are alreeady very intensive in various fields of political, economic and cultural cooperation, virtually no border between the two countries, and Rama has also announced the creation of a unified educational system. As well as a unified common market without restrictions and customs. NATO and EU membership for the Albanian/Kosovo political elite is, in fact, the only possible, and therefore very logical way to achieva their own historical goals – the unification of national territories. The plan has several phases – the first is certainly unification of Albania with Kosovo. This is impossible to do, unless Serbia renounces Kosovo, something what unfortunately is now doing Serbian president, under the pretext of the separation of Serbs and Albanians. It is here that we can see what kind of poor policy is led by Aleksandar Vucic, because without Kosovo, Greater Albania project is impossible. If Vucic’s plan for “demarcation“ passes, we would soon had attempts for the division of Macedonia, followed by the integration of Albanians in Montenegro. Recently in the capital of Montenegro Podgorica, the city municipality of Tuzi with the Albanian majority became an independent municipality. The northern part of Greece is the last in line. It is immportant to emphasize that the main sponsors of the project of a Greater Albania are US and United Kingdom.
Russian red line
Serbia and Republic of Srpska are today the only real Russian allies in Balkans. Serbia is the only state in the Balkans where the Russian army can conduct military exercises, where Russia has a humanitarian center in strategically important city of Nis. A recent statement by Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic that Kosovo is guilty for serbian bad economic and demographic situation is shameful, but speaks enough. Kosovo has nothing to do with the economic development of Serbia, the main problem of the Serbian economy weakness is poor economic policy, as well as corruption. Since coming to power, Vucic fully meets Atlantists requirements, except one, entry into NATO. However, after the „separation“ with Albanians, all preconditions for the Serbian entry into NATO will be created. We should not be surprised if Vucic than declare that for economic develpment of Serbia is good to enter in NATO, same as Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic claimed for Montenegro.
With the membership of Croatia and Albania (2009), and Montenegro (2017) into the NATO alliance, the United States has in terms of security „almost rounded off“ the space of the Western Balkans, geopolitically extremely important for the control of the Adriatic basin, the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea region. Besides Serbia, still remained Macedonia and Bosnia and Hercegovina outside NATO. Bosnia is very important because it has a small exit to the Adriatic Sea, therefore it is the only part of the Adriatic, which is not under NATO control. The only who prevents the entry of Bosnia and Hercegovina in NATO, for now, is Republic of Srpska. From some sources close to Serbian Government we can already hear that Serbia should accept reality on the occasion of NATO, because Serbia is “surrounded” by NATO. If Russia allows Vucic to implement the “separation“ with Kosovo, then Kosovo (either independently or as part of Albania) and Serbia will become part of NATO. After that, there will be no space for Russia in the Balkans. Therefore, Russia should act preventively. To make it clear that no demarcation will be to the Kosovo issue, and that the issue of Kosovo must be resolved in accordance with UN resolution 1244.
First published in our partner International Affairs
West return to 2007: Europe’s anger over incompetent politicians
The anger and discontent of European citizens over European politicians is increasing day by day. While more than ten years have passed since the economic crisis in Europe, we are still witnessing austerity plans in this block.
France’s recent round of demonstrations isn’t limited to this country anymore, and we’re now witnessing demonstrations in countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands.
Many European citizens spent the years between 2007 and 2012 with the hope that the austerity policies would affect the devastated economy of United Europe and the Eurozone. That’s why they tried to cooperate with their own governments (which were mainly the far-right and social-democratic administrations). However, after 2012, we witnessed the end of European citizens’ patience towards politicians like Merkel.
Part of this dissatisfaction revealed itself in cases such as the European Parliamentary Elections in 2014, where more than 100 right extremists managed to enter the European Parliament. Now, in 2018, we are witnessing the continuation of the economic crisis in Europe in the security, social and political spheres.
It’s not without a reason that the number of nationalist groups’ supporters has increased in the mentioned areas. The security crisis is strongly felt in today’s Europe. Common policies which were adopted by European authorities couldn’t improve the security crisis within the Schengen borders and other European borders.
During 2015 and 2016 (and somehow in 2017), the Immigration and security crises in Europe caused other issues such as the economic crisis to become marginalized. But now it’s shadowed over the whole of Europe. Under such circumstances, the main question of European citizens is that what was the impact of austerity policies adopted for ten years inside the EU borders?
They can clearly see that the adoption of such policies has had no effects on improving their economic conditions. The existing economic crisis continues to be felt in everyday life of European citizens. The rise of the signs of the financial crisis in Europe, and the decline in credit ratings, and the growth of unemployment in countries that continue to be affected by the financial crisis have created many social crises in Europe.
The protests that are taking place today in France and other European countries are not merely an objection to rising fuel prices or tax increases for low-income groups. It is a protest against the unstable economic structure of the European Union and the Eurozone.
Emmanuel Macron, the young French president, as an economist, promised to redefine the existing economic structure in the Eurozone, with regard to the current economic crisis. However, Macron himself has now become the symbol of crisis in Europe!
The economic crisis in European countries doesn’t limit to austerity policies! The external debt crisis in the European countries should also be added to the economic and credit crises in the West. The crisis is heavily extended in countries like Italy, causing a lot of trouble for other member states of the Eurozone. The economic cohesion of the Eurozone member states has fueled this trend.
In any case, it seems that the patience of European citizens has come to an end. As noted, according to the predictions, these crises were to be resolved before 2012, and economic growth symbols was to be replaced by austerity symbols. But at the moment, there is little indication of economic growth in European countries, and austerity policies remain strong.
Finally, it should be concluded that the European countries, especially the EU member states, have no choice but to “self-destruct” their economic foundations and replace them with new patterns. If European officials continue to insist on existing methods and economic models, they will be doomed to failure in the near future. In this case, nationalist groups and far-right extremists will dominate Europe’s political, economic, social and security equations, and this would definitely be a terrible nightmare for those like Merkel and Macron.
First published in our partner MNA
EU steps up action against disinformation
To protect its democratic systems and public debates and in view of the 2019 European elections as well as a number of national and local elections that will be held in Member States by 2020, the EU is presenting today an Action Plan to step up efforts to counter disinformation in Europe and beyond.
Taking stock of the progress made so far and following up on the call made by European leaders in June 2018 to protect the Union’s democratic systems, the European Commission and the High Representative are setting out concrete measures to tackle disinformation, including the creation of a Rapid Alert System and close monitoring of the implementation of the Code of Practice signed by the online platforms. The Action Plan also foresees an increase of resources devoted to the issue.
High Representative/Vice President Federica Mogherini said: “Healthy democracy relies on open, free and fair public debate. It’s our duty to protect this space and not allow anybody to spread disinformation that fuels hatred, division, and mistrust in democracy. As the European Union, we’ve decided to act together and reinforce our response, to promote our principles, to support the resilience of our societies, within our borders and in the neighbourhood. It’s the European way to respond to one of the main challenges of our times.”
Andrus Ansip, Vice-President responsible for the Digital Single Market, said: “We need to be united and join our forces to protect our democracies against disinformation. We have seen attempts to interfere in elections and referenda, with evidence pointing to Russia as a primary source of these campaigns. To address these threats, we propose to improve coordination with Member States through a Rapid Alert System, reinforce our teams exposing disinformation, increase support for media and researchers, and ask online platforms to deliver on their commitments. Fighting disinformation requires a collective effort.”
Stepping up detection, response and awareness
The Action Plan – prepared in close cooperation also with Commissioner for Justice, Consumers and Gender Equality Věra Jourová; Commissioner for Security Union Julian King and Commissioner for Digital Economy and Society Mariya Gabriel – focuses on four areas key to effectively build up the EU’s capabilities and strengthen cooperation between Member States and the EU:
Improved detection: Strategic Communication Task Forces and the EU Hybrid Fusion Cell in the European External Action Service (EEAS), as well as the EU delegations in the neighbourhood countries will be reinforced with significant additional specialised staff and data analysis tools. The EEAS’ strategic communication budget to address disinformation and raise awareness about its adverse impact is expected to more than double, from €1.9 million in 2018 to €5 million in 2019. EU Member States should complement these measures by reinforcing their own means to deal with disinformation.
Coordinated response: A dedicated Rapid Alert System will be set up among the EU institutions and Member States to facilitate the sharing of data and assessments of disinformation campaigns and to provide alerts on disinformation threats in real time. The EU institutions and Member States will also focus on proactive and objective communication on Union values and policies.
Online platforms and industry:The signatories of the Code of Practice should swiftly and effectively implement the commitments made under the Code of Practice, focusing on actions that are urgent for the European elections in 2019. This includes in particular ensuring transparency of political advertising, stepping up efforts to close active fake accounts, labelling non-human interactions (messages spread automatically by ‘bots’) and cooperating with fact-checkers and academic researchers to detect disinformation campaigns and make fact-checked content more visible and widespread. The Commission, with the help of the European group of regulators in charge of audio-visual media services, will ensure a close and continuous monitoring of the implementation of the commitments.
Raising awareness and empowering citizens: In addition to targeted awareness campaigns, the EU institutions and Member States will promote media literacy through dedicated programmes. Support will be provided to national multidisciplinary teams of independent fact-checkers and researchers to detect and expose disinformation campaigns across social networks.
Finally, the Commission is today also reporting on the progress made in tackling online disinformation since the presentation of its Communication in April 2018.
The European Commission and the High Representative will develop and implement the measures set out in the Action Plan, in close cooperation with Member States and the European Parliament.
With a view to the European elections, the Rapid Alert System will be set up by March 2019. This will be complemented by further strengthening relevant resources.
The signatories of the Code of Practice will have to provide the first implementation update to the Commission by the end of 2018, which the Commission will then publish in January 2019. Between January and May, the online platforms will have to report to the Commission on a monthly basis. The Commission will also carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implementation of the Code of Practice in its first 12 months. Should the implementation and the impact of the Code of Practice prove unsatisfactory, the Commission may propose further measures, including of a regulatory nature.
The European Union has been actively tackling disinformation since 2015. Followinga decision of the European Council in March 2015, in order to “challenge Russia’s ongoing disinformation campaigns“, the East StratCom Task Forcein the European External Action Service (EEAS) was set up. The Task Force, together with the relevant Commission services, focuses on effectively communicating the EU’s policies towards its eastern neighbourhood; strengthening the overall media environment in the eastern neighbourhood, including providing support for media freedom and strengthening independent media; and improving the EU’s capacity to forecast, address and raise awareness of pro-Kremlin disinformation activities.
In 2016, the Joint Framework on countering hybrid threats was adopted, followed by the Joint Communication on increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities to address hybrid threats in 2018.
In April 2018, the Commission outlined a European approach and self-regulatory tools to tackle disinformation online, including an EU-wide Code of Practice against Disinformation, support for an independent network of fact-checkers, and tools to stimulate quality journalism. On 16 October, the Code of Practice was signed by Facebook, Google, Twitter and Mozilla as well as the trade association representing online platforms and trade associations representing the advertising industry and advertisers.
In his 2018 State of the Union Address, President Juncker also put forward a set of concrete measures to make sure that next year’s European Parliament elections are organised in a free, fair and secure manner. The measures include greater transparency in online political advertisements and the possibility to impose sanctions for the illegal use of personal data in order to deliberately influence the outcome of the European elections.
Leave not stay? EU approves UK exit
On November 25, leaders of the EU member states approved an agreement on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the Union. The last objections, voiced by Spain, were lifted after Madrid received “assurances from the British government concerning Gibraltar.” Now the British Prime Minister Theresa May will have to secure the approval of the country’s parliament. This may prove to be more difficult than reaching agreement on Brexit with member of the European Union. According to commentators, few, if any in the UK, endorse the agreement in its present version. If backed by the British Parliament, the deal will then have to be favored by a simple majority of the European Parliament. Afterwards, the EU Council will hold a vote, in which the support of at least 20 member countries is required, representing at least 65% of the Union’s population. No endorsement by national parliaments is required. Should the decision receive the approval of all parties involved, the exit procedure will start on March 29, 2019. The transition period will last at least 18 months.
Last week, the text of the Brexit agreement, which is nearly six hundred pages long, was finally approved. Next, British Prime Minister Teresa May eventually succeeded in winning the support of most Cabinet members. At the same time, a number of ministers, including Dominic Raab, who is in charge of exiting the EU, resigned in protest against the final version. Now, the British Parliament is to vote on the bill to achieve agreement with the EU on the terms of the exit in early December. In addition to the text of the Agreement, a Political Declaration has been drafted which briefly describes the main principles of further relations between the UK and the EU, including the positions of the two parties in future negotiations on a trade agreement.
The 17-month negotiations marathon was extremely difficult. Triggered largely by discontent about the so-called “uncontrolled” influx of migrants, Britain’s exit from the EU quickly turned from a “technical” issue into one of the main challenges to the future of the Union. The EU’s position of late has been to “minimize the damage from Brexit”. In early September, when the third round of negotiations between London and Brussels came to a close, most observers said, it fell through. It was only by mid-November that the parties had harmonized their positions on the financial conditions of the exit, the protection of the rights of EU citizens in the United Kingdom and the British in Europe, as well as on the “consistency of talks about the future”.
At present, the outcome for the EU looks fairly beneficial. According to The Economist, the British authorities have failed to achieve more than half of their original goals. London’s independence from the EU in matters of trade and customs regulation has been postponed at least until 2021. Until then, the UK will remain within the regulatory procedures of the EU Customs Union and will continue to live by the standards of the EU’s common market and their interpretation by the European Court of Justice. The UK will pay the EU about £ 39 billion in a one-off payment and there might be additional payments in the future. Instead of signing a comprehensive free trade agreement by March 2019, which London had sought to secure so much, a Political Declaration was approved which states the parties’ intention to conclude such an agreement “in the future.”
What can be seen as success for the UK is the cessation of the free movement of people between the UK and the EU. However, the approved version of the Brexit agreement envisages visa-free travel for both Europeans and the British “for tourist or business purposes.” Finally, London managed to secure the preservation of the “transparent” land border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. At the same time, it had to be paid for with the de facto retention of Northern Ireland within the EU’s jurisdiction, pending “further arrangements” to be reached during the transition period – that is, until December 2020 at the earliest.
The two leading EU countries – Germany and France – have managed to demonstrate the Union’s strong unity in the face of outgoing Britain. The Brexit Agreement was clinched on Brussels’ terms, which imply de facto payment, in the literal and figurative sense of the word, of a sort of indemnities. Meanwhile, it may turn out that the tough stance of Paris and Berlin on Great Britain will not bring any special political dividends either to Macron, whose reformist ideas are garnering less and less support in the EU, or to Merkel, who announced her intention to resign as chancellor by 2021. Finally, the mounting friction between Brussels and Warsaw, Budapest, Vienna, and now, Rome, shows that the deep-seated causes that underlie Britain’s choice of two years ago to vote for leaving the EU, are still there. And the position of Britain’s opponents who are trying, in the name of deepening EU integration, to turn a blind eye to problems for which there can be no politically correct solutions, is triggering ever more irritation on the part of European voters. Meanwhile, there is only 6 months to go before elections to the European Parliament are due to take place.
In turn, Theresa May is convinced that she has succeeded in achieving “the best deal possible.” Finance minister Philip Hammond has described the deal with the EU as “the best option for the British economy.” Meanwhile, this agreement has cost May a lot politically. In addition to resignations among Cabinet members, a number of parliamentarians from the Conservative Party persist in their attempts to raise the issue of confidence in the prime minister. The final document is subject to serious criticism, both by opponents and supporters of Brexit, including a considerable number of outspoken representatives of the Conservative Party. For example, Boris Johnson, one of the trailblazers of Brexit, a former foreign minister, and a favorite in the so far unofficial campaign for the post of prime minister, has voted the version of the Agreement signed with the EU as “a huge mistake.” According to Johnson, by approving the current text of the agreement “Britain will become a satellite state.” In this regard, experts anticipate serious difficulties, up to the rejection of the Agreement, or, at least, a significant delay in terms of passing the text through the British Parliament. A negative result will require the government to submit a new action plan within three weeks, but no later than January 21 of next year.
Teresa May’s major problem is that for success she needs more than the votes of her party. A small majority in parliament is provided by the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). However, many DUP members are extremely dissatisfied with the de facto preservation of EU regulation in Northern Ireland, which is enshrined in the Brexit Agreement. In their opinion, such a “compromise” “undermines the unity of Britain.” In addition, a week ago, not only the majority of opposition MPs, but also several dozen Conservatives came out against the May plan. According to critics, the deal agreed by May forces the UK to continue to follow EU regulations for an unspecified period of time. While doing so, London will not be able to influence decisions taken in Brussels, nor will it be able to withdraw from the Agreement unilaterally. Thus, the likelihood of a negative vote in the House of Commons is estimated as fairly high. Besides, the mounting contradictions within the ruling circles of Great Britain may provoke a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister May before the agreement is submitted to parliament. The loss of confidence in the prime minister would lead either to the arrival at Downing Street of a supporter of a tougher course on the EU, or to early elections. In both cases, the chances of Britain exiting the EU without any agreement will increase significantly.
According to the Times, members of the House of Commons will have to choose between a “bad deal” and two alternatives, which are likely to be even worse. If parliamentarians vote against the May plan, Britain will either leave the EU without any agreement at all – “tough Brexit”, or will hold a second referendum, in the hope that this time the people will vote to maintain membership in the European Union. Both options are extremely risky. ‘Tough Brexit’ can trigger a massive political and socio-economic crisis. “Another referendum will further divide the already divided country, make the population angry over the need for another voting, will further complicate relations with Brussels, and on top of that, it does not guarantee that the result will be different”.
It cannot be ruled out that there are quite a few in Europe who, deep in their hearts, hope for such a development of events. Brexit without an agreement would mean that Britain would have to build legal relations with continental Europe almost from scratch, that is, in such a way which will demonstrate to all potentially “hesitant” members of the EU that attempts to undermine the Union will bring them only huge losses and damages. And another referendum as such would deal a substantial blow to euro-skeptics and “populists” of every description. An even greater effect would be London’s rejection of Brexit. This would seriously strengthen the position of supporters of European integration in the context of their struggle for the posts in the EU executive and legislative branches in 2019.
Thus, chances are still high that London, with or without a “deal”, will have to pay the highest possible price for independence. Against this background, the incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May is rapidly losing popularity, both among voters and within her own party. As the voices of supporters of the “re-referendum” on EU membership are getting louder, the question that arises is whether the success, albeit a compromise, which Downing Street has achieved so far, will be just another Pyrrhic victory, of which the British history has seen so many. Or will Brexit give a new impetus to the development of the United Kingdom? No one can predict now.
First published in our partner International Affairs
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