The improvement in human development is becoming vividly contingent on the surrounding natural environment, and may be confined by its future deterioration as a response to the negative stimulus. Man-made problems like increasing population, urbanization and industrialisation, of which our mother earth is a victim in this century, have forced society to consider whether human beings are changing the very conditions essential to life on Earth. Antediluvian technologies have played a very meager role in the planning, prediction, supervision and control of environmental processes at different scales and within various time spans. An effective environment protection policy is largely dependent on the quality of information available and the utility of contemporary technologies like Artificial intelligence (AI), deep learning and data analytics that can be used to take an appropriate decision at an appropriate time. This convergence can help AI move from in vitro (in research labs) to in vivo (in everyday lives).
The global environment is in a bad shape. Natural disasters around the world are happening at an alarming rate, we have witnessed earthquakes, wildfires and cyclones that cause mass flooding and property damage. Around twenty per cent of species currently face extinction, and that number could rise to 50 per cent by 2100. And even if all the world economies keep their Paris climate pledges, by 2100, it’s predicted that average global temperatures will be 3˚C higher than in pre-industrial times, making it an invincible environmental catastrophe. There are reports which suggest that the recent fire break in California, United States of America and the floods in Kerala, India could have been mitigated effectively with proper supervision and planning. Here comes the role of AI.AI is considered to be the most dynamic game-changer in the global economy. According to a World Economic Forum report, Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for the Earth, AI refers to computer systems that “can sense their environment, think, learn, and act in response to what they perceive and their programmed purposes.” AI has helped environment researchers clinch almost 90 per cent accuracy in spotting climate change factors like tropical cyclones, weather fronts, tidal changes and atmospheric rivers, which can cause heavy precipitation and are often impossible for humans to identify on their own. In India, AI has helped farmers get 30 per cent higher yields per hectare by providing information on preparing the land, applying fertilizer and choosing sowing dates, as reported by the Government of India in 2018. In Norway, AI has penetrated into the field of policy-making and helped create a flexible and autonomous electric grid, integrating more renewable energy.
The long list of technology and economy shapers, who believe that artificial intelligence, often encompassing machine learning and deep learning, is a “game changer” for climate change and environmental issues, includes Microsoft, Google, IBM and Tesla among others. Microsoft’s AI for Earth program has committed $50 million over five years to develop and test novel tech-applications for AI. In China, IBM’ Green Horizon project is utilizing an AI system that can forecast air pollution, track pollution sources and develop potential strategies and solutions to tackle it. For instance, data analysis can be used to determine whether it would be more effective to restrict carbon output close certain power plants in order to reduce pollution in a particular zone. The Ocean Data Alliance is developing a machine learning system to provide data from satellites and ocean exploration so that decision-makers can monitor shipping, ocean mining, fishing, coral bleaching or the outbreak of a marine disease. Modern technologies like artificial intelligence, geographic information system tools and movement detectors, are revamping the way wildlife reserves and conservation bodies are working across India.AI can also help prophesy the spread of invasive materials, keep a track of marine litter and measure water pollution levels. The 21st century is the age of data, with accuracy as the key, decision-makers and authorities will be able to respond to problems more quickly with real-time data. Considering the global evolution of AI and its application, it is evidentially predicted that by 2030, AI will add up to USD 15.7 trillion of the global economy which is more than the present output of China and India combined. The United Nations recognize that AI has the potential to accelerate progress towards a dignified life, in peace and prosperity, for all people. The UN Artificial Intelligence Summit held in Geneva (2017) suggested refocusing the use of this technology, on achieving sustainable development goals and assisting global economies to eliminate poverty and to conserve natural resources and protect the environment.
Countries and civil societies develop incredible AI application systems with diverse features, but sometimes these systems do not take into consideration the good of individuals and society. So, it is important to develop systems which can deliver the change required to build a clean, resource-secure and inclusive economy, enabled by technology and supported by public policy and investment. Many industry giants like Microsoft, Google and Tesla, while pushing the parameters for human innovations, have made productive efforts in developing ‘Earth Friendly’ or ‘Eco-Friendly’ AI mechanisms. For instance, Google’s brainchild DeepMind AI has helped the organization to curb their data centre energy usage by 40 per cent making them more energy efficient and reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions.AI innovation will also be fundamental to the attainment of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and will also promote the resolution of humanity’s grand challenges by maximizing on the unequalled quantities of data now being generated on sentiment behaviour, human health, migration and more.
For any country to maximally benefit from the AI revolution, it must adopt a deliberate policy to drive AI innovation and proliferation in sectors affecting climate change. With powerful economies making rapid progress in AI-based research, it is imperative that the World looks at AI as a critical element of environmental sustainability. These recent advances in AI are a wake-up call to policymakers as our climate is under increasing strain. Aiming for sustainability is an opportunity of this generation. AI and other Fourth Industrial revolution ideas are the new innovative solutions that can revolutionize environmental protection measures.
The World After COVID-19: Does Transparent Mean Healthy?
The insanity of despair and primaeval fear for one’s health (and today, no matter how ironic and paradoxical it sounds, this may be the state of mind that brings many of us together) will most likely give rise to a new global formation that will then become a global reality. It is still hard to say what it will be like exactly, but it is clear that the world will become more transparent. And I do not mean in the usual sense of anti-corruption measures, but rather in the original sense of the word – the world will become more “see-through.” Our temperature will be monitored. Smartphones with built-in sensors will collect precise data not only about our clicks and likes, but about our physical and possibly emotional state. The world and the people that live in it will undergo a number of changes once the current coronavirus pandemic is over, and many of those changes will be accompanied by a leap in technological development.
For many experts and scientists, the events that are unfolding today are reminiscent of what happened in 2003, when the SARS virus presented the first large-scale threat to human health of the new millennium. Unlike today’s unbidden crowned guest, SARS was not so virulent, yet it caused major concerns for a number of countries, particularly in East and Southeast Asia. Hence the deadly lessons learned in Singapore and partly in Taiwan, where the government has for two decades now been successfully using a system of mass surveillance of the everyday life of its citizens – a system that has received the approval of the people. This system is part of Singapore’s cybersecurity strategy and allows the physical condition of large masses of people to be monitored, thereby preventing diseases from spreading and escalating into epidemics. This, combined with their ability to enforce extremely strict quarantine measures and carry out mass testing instead of the selective testing currently practised in Europe and Russia, has allowed Singapore and Taiwan to contain the spread of the disease and prevent it from turning into an epidemic. Of course, their compact territories have certainly played a part here. Other countries, for instance, Israel and Russia, have already followed this example and approved a monitoring system that uses mobile data and geolocation in order to trace the movements of persons with confirmed infection. We have to assume that one of the first steps after the COVID-19 pandemic will be to embed this surveillance system even deeper into the public life. Most likely, this step will be met with approval instead of protests and street rallies.
I would not wish to speak for everyone, but it seems to me that the choice between health and privacy is a no-brainer. The pandemic will end, and what the world emerging from the pandemic will look like is an interesting question worthy of discussion. To quote the Deputy Minister of Health of Iran, who had COVID-19, we can note that the coronavirus came to us from a relatively safe country and, contrary to recent rumours, it does not only affect those of Asian heritage: quite the opposite, it is very democratic in its choice of victims, which is to say, it affects everyone.
Hence the question: by self-isolating, we are buying doctors and scientists time to find a cure to the virus and test vaccines, but what are we going to do in the event of a new pandemic? Here, humanity faces two choices. The first is to give free rein to nationalists who are already jubilant and triumphant over the failures of globalization and the inability of liberal democratic countries to shut down their borders to viruses and undesirable immigrants. The second is to move to a radically new formation where we will become even more mutually dependent and open to our societies and governments, because this will be a mandatory condition for moving about and doing business, and perhaps even starting a family. Personal secrets will become a thing of the past, a fairy tale we tell our grandchildren. In fact, the issue is far more serious, with multiple additions and ensuing consequences.
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, consensus and mutual understanding between states will be relevant like never before, especially since the problems of disarmament, nuclear warheads, defence budgets propped up by taxpayer money, international sanctions, etc., that appeared and developed during the presidencies of Nikita Khrushchev and Ronald Reagan may finally move into the background. Instead, world leaders, especially given that most of them are at an age that makes them particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus, should start thinking about new plans for investing in healthcare, socioeconomic aspects of life and technological development, because those will be intrinsically linked with the other aspects of improving the state mentioned above. Will this represent a new social contract between the government, the public and the citizen? Probably. Will it represent a new pact between governments? One would hope so. Perhaps the coronavirus pandemic will break down the old world and give rise to the new one that so many expected to appear in the 1990s. But what was to await us back then was proxy wars and a confrontation through sanctions that split societies from within and raised barriers between states. Maybe this new world will be one where surveillance cameras and sensors will first prompt a feeling of relief and then become an integral part of the picture. Perhaps it will be a world where life without external surveillance and control will appear unsafe and unnatural.
From our partner RIAC
Future Goals in the AI Race: Explainable AI and Transfer Learning
Recent years have seen breakthroughs in neural network technology: computers can now beat any living person at the most complex game invented by humankind, as well as imitate human voices and faces (both real and non-existent) in a deceptively realistic manner. Is this a victory for artificial intelligence over human intelligence? And if not, what else do researchers and developers need to achieve to make the winners in the AI race the “kings of the world?”
Over the last 60 years, artificial intelligence (AI) has been the subject of much discussion among researchers representing different approaches and schools of thought. One of the crucial reasons for this is that there is no unified definition of what constitutes AI, with differences persisting even now. This means that any objective assessment of the current state and prospects of AI, and its crucial areas of research, in particular, will be intricately linked with the subjective philosophical views of researchers and the practical experience of developers.
In recent years, the term “general intelligence,” meaning the ability to solve cognitive problems in general terms, adapting to the environment through learning, minimizing risks and optimizing the losses in achieving goals, has gained currency among researchers and developers. This led to the concept of artificial general intelligence (AGI), potentially vested not in a human, but a cybernetic system of sufficient computational power. Many refer to this kind of intelligence as “strong AI,” as opposed to “weak AI,” which has become a mundane topic in recent years.
As applied AI technology has developed over the last 60 years, we can see how many practical applications – knowledge bases, expert systems, image recognition systems, prediction systems, tracking and control systems for various technological processes – are no longer viewed as examples of AI and have become part of “ordinary technology.” The bar for what constitutes AI rises accordingly, and today it is the hypothetical “general intelligence,” human-level intelligence or “strong AI,” that is assumed to be the “real thing” in most discussions. Technologies that are already being used are broken down into knowledge engineering, data science or specific areas of “narrow AI” that combine elements of different AI approaches with specialized humanities or mathematical disciplines, such as stock market or weather forecasting, speech and text recognition and language processing.
Different schools of research, each working within their own paradigms, also have differing interpretations of the spheres of application, goals, definitions and prospects of AI, and are often dismissive of alternative approaches. However, there has been a kind of synergistic convergence of various approaches in recent years, and researchers and developers are increasingly turning to hybrid models and methodologies, coming up with different combinations.
Since the dawn of AI, two approaches to AI have been the most popular. The first, “symbolic” approach, assumes that the roots of AI lie in philosophy, logic and mathematics and operate according to logical rules, sign and symbolic systems, interpreted in terms of the conscious human cognitive process. The second approach (biological in nature), referred to as connectionist, neural-network, neuromorphic, associative or subsymbolic, is based on reproducing the physical structures and processes of the human brain identified through neurophysiological research. The two approaches have evolved over 60 years, steadily becoming closer to each other. For instance, logical inference systems based on Boolean algebra have transformed into fuzzy logic or probabilistic programming, reproducing network architectures akin to neural networks that evolved within the neuromorphic approach. On the other hand, methods based on “artificial neural networks” are very far from reproducing the functions of actual biological neural networks and rely more on mathematical methods from linear algebra and tensor calculus.
Are There “Holes” in Neural Networks?
In the last decade, it was the connectionist, or subsymbolic, approach that brought about explosive progress in applying machine learning methods to a wide range of tasks. Examples include both traditional statistical methodologies, like logistical regression, and more recent achievements in artificial neural network modelling, like deep learning and reinforcement learning. The most significant breakthrough of the last decade was brought about not so much by new ideas as by the accumulation of a critical mass of tagged datasets, the low cost of storing massive volumes of training samples and, most importantly, the sharp decline of computational costs, including the possibility of using specialized, relatively cheap hardware for neural network modelling. The breakthrough was brought about by a combination of these factors that made it possible to train and configure neural network algorithms to make a quantitative leap, as well as to provide a cost-effective solution to a broad range of applied problems relating to recognition, classification and prediction. The biggest successes here have been brought about by systems based on “deep learning” networks that build on the idea of the “perceptron” suggested 60 years ago by Frank Rosenblatt. However, achievements in the use of neural networks also uncovered a range of problems that cannot be solved using existing neural network methods.
First, any classic neural network model, whatever amount of data it is trained on and however precise it is in its predictions, is still a black box that does not provide any explanation of why a given decision was made, let alone disclose the structure and content of the knowledge it has acquired in the course of its training. This rules out the use of neural networks in contexts where explainability is required for legal or security reasons. For example, a decision to refuse a loan or to carry out a dangerous surgical procedure needs to be justified for legal purposes, and in the event that a neural network launches a missile at a civilian plane, the causes of this decision need to be identifiable if we want to correct it and prevent future occurrences.
Second, attempts to understand the nature of modern neural networks have demonstrated their weak ability to generalize. Neural networks remember isolated, often random, details of the samples they were exposed to during training and make decisions based on those details and not on a real general grasp of the object represented in the sample set. For instance, a neural network that was trained to recognize elephants and whales using sets of standard photos will see a stranded whale as an elephant and an elephant splashing around in the surf as a whale. Neural networks are good at remembering situations in similar contexts, but they lack the capacity to understand situations and cannot extrapolate the accumulated knowledge to situations in unusual settings.
Third, neural network models are random, fragmentary and opaque, which allows hackers to find ways of compromising applications based on these models by means of adversarial attacks. For example, a security system trained to identify people in a video stream can be confused when it sees a person in unusually colourful clothing. If this person is shoplifting, the system may not be able to distinguish them from shelves containing equally colourful items. While the brain structures underlying human vision are prone to so-called optical illusions, this problem acquires a more dramatic scale with modern neural networks: there are known cases where replacing an image with noise leads to the recognition of an object that is not there, or replacing one pixel in an image makes the network mistake the object for something else.
Fourth, the inadequacy of the information capacity and parameters of the neural network to the image of the world it is shown during training and operation can lead to the practical problem of catastrophic forgetting. This is seen when a system that had first been trained to identify situations in a set of contexts and then fine-tuned to recognize them in a new set of contexts may lose the ability to recognize them in the old set. For instance, a neural machine vision system initially trained to recognize pedestrians in an urban environment may be unable to identify dogs and cows in a rural setting, but additional training to recognize cows and dogs can make the model forget how to identify pedestrians, or start confusing them with small roadside trees.
The expert community sees a number of fundamental problems that need to be solved before a “general,” or “strong,” AI is possible. In particular, as demonstrated by the biggest annual AI conference held in Macao, “explainable AI” and “transfer learning” are simply necessary in some cases, such as defence, security, healthcare and finance. Many leading researchers also think that mastering these two areas will be the key to creating a “general,” or “strong,” AI.
Explainable AI allows for human beings (the user of the AI system) to understand the reasons why a system makes decisions and approve them if they are correct, or rework or fine-tune the system if they are not. This can be achieved by presenting data in an appropriate (explainable) manner or by using methods that allow this knowledge to be extracted with regard to specific precedents or the subject area as a whole. In a broader sense, explainable AI also refers to the capacity of a system to store, or at least present its knowledge in a human-understandable and human-verifiable form. The latter can be crucial when the cost of an error is too high for it only to be explainable post factum. And here we come to the possibility of extracting knowledge from the system, either to verify it or to feed it into another system.
Transfer learning is the possibility of transferring knowledge between different AI systems, as well as between man and machine so that the knowledge possessed by a human expert or accumulated by an individual system can be fed into a different system for use and fine-tuning. Theoretically speaking, this is necessary because the transfer of knowledge is only fundamentally possible when universal laws and rules can be abstracted from the system’s individual experience. Practically speaking, it is the prerequisite for making AI applications that will not learn by trial and error or through the use of a “training set,” but can be initialized with a base of expert-derived knowledge and rules – when the cost of an error is too high or when the training sample is too small.
How to Get the Best of Both Worlds?
There is currently no consensus on how to make an artificial general intelligence that is capable of solving the abovementioned problems or is based on technologies that could solve them.
One of the most promising approaches is probabilistic programming, which is a modern development of symbolic AI. In probabilistic programming, knowledge takes the form of algorithms and source, and target data is not represented by values of variables but by a probabilistic distribution of all possible values. Alexei Potapov, a leading Russian expert on artificial general intelligence, thinks that this area is now in a state that deep learning technology was in about ten years ago, so we can expect breakthroughs in the coming years.
Another promising “symbolic” area is Evgenii Vityaev’s semantic probabilistic modelling, which makes it possible to build explainable predictive models based on information represented as semantic networks with probabilistic inference based on Pyotr Anokhin’s theory of functional systems.
One of the most widely discussed ways to achieve this is through so-called neuro-symbolic integration – an attempt to get the best of both worlds by combining the learning capabilities of subsymbolic deep neural networks (which have already proven their worth) with the explainability of symbolic probabilistic modelling and programming (which hold significant promise). In addition to the technological considerations mentioned above, this area merits close attention from a cognitive psychology standpoint. As viewed by Daniel Kahneman, human thought can be construed as the interaction of two distinct but complementary systems: System 1 thinking is fast, unconscious, intuitive, unexplainable thinking, whereas System 2 thinking is slow, conscious, logical and explainable. System 1 provides for the effective performance of run-of-the-mill tasks and the recognition of familiar situations. In contrast, System 2 processes new information and makes sure we can adapt to new conditions by controlling and adapting the learning process of the first system. Systems of the first kind, as represented by neural networks, are already reaching Gartner’s so-called plateau of productivity in a variety of applications. But working applications based on systems of the second kind – not to mention hybrid neuro-symbolic systems which the most prominent industry players have only started to explore – have yet to be created.
This year, Russian researchers, entrepreneurs and government officials who are interested in developing artificial general intelligence have a unique opportunity to attend the first AGI-2020 international conference in St. Petersburg in late June 2020, where they can learn about all the latest developments in the field from the world’s leading experts.
From our partner RIAC
How as strategist we can compete with the sentient Artificial intelligence?
Universe is made up of humans, stars, galaxies, milky ways, black holes other objects linked and connected with each other. Everything in the universe has its level of mechanisms and complexities. Humans are very complex creatures man-made objects are more complex and difficult to understand. With the passage of time human beings are more evolved and become more advanced technologically. Human inventions are reached to that level of advancement, which initiates a competition between machines and humans, itself. Humans are the most intelligent mortals on the earth but now human are being challenged by the intelligence (artificial intelligence), which was invented as helping hand for humans to increase efficiency. Here it is important to question that whether human’s intelligence was not enough to survive in the fast growing technological world? Or the man-made intelligence has reached to its peak so that humans come in competition with machines and human intelligence is challenged by the artificial intelligence? If there is competition, then how strategists could compete with artificial intelligence? To answer these questions we first need to know what artificial intelligence actually is.
Artificial intelligence was presented by John McCarthy in 1955; he characterized computerized reasoning in 1956 at Dartmouth Conference, the main counterfeit consciousness meeting that: Every fragment of learning or another element of insight can on a basic level be so unequivocally depicted that a machine can be made to empower it. An endeavor will be made to learn how to influence machines to exploit vernacular, mount deliberations and ideas, take care of sort of issues now held for people, and enhance themselves. There are seven main features of artificial intelligence as follows:-
“Simulating higher functions of brain
Programming a computer to use general language
Arrangement of hypothetical neurons in a manner so that they can form concept
Way to determine and measure problem complexity
Abstraction: it is defined as quality of dealing with ideas , not with events
Creativity and randomness”
Another definition is given by Elaine rich who expressed that counterfeit consciousness is tied in with making computer to do such thing which are presently being finished by human. He said that each computer is artificial intelligence framework. Jack Copland expressed that critical elements of artificial intelligence are speculation discovering that empowers the student to perform in the circumstance that are beforehand experienced. At that point its thinking, to reason is to make inference fittingly, critical thinking implied that by giving information it can finish up comes about lastly trickiness intends to break down a checked situation and investigating the highlights and connection between the articles and self-driving autos are its case.
Artificial intelligence is very common in the developed nations and developing nations are using artificial intelligence according to resources. Now question is that how artificial intelligence is being utilized in the above mentioned fields? Use of AI will be elaborated with help of phenomenon and examples of related fields for better understanding.
World is being more advanced and technologies are improving as well. In this situation states become conscious about their security. At this point states are involving AI approaches in their defense systems and some states are already using artificially integrated technologies. On 11 May 2017, Dan Coats, the executive of US National Intelligence, conveyed declaration to the US Congress on his yearly Worldwide Threat Assessment. In the openly discharged archive, he said that (AI) is progressing computational abilities that advantage the economy, yet those advances likewise empower new military capacities for our enemies’. In the meantime, the US Department of Defense (DOD) is taking a shot at such frameworks. Undertaking Maven, for example, otherwise called the Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team (AWCFT), is intended to quicken the incorporation of huge information, machine learning and AI into US military capacities. While the underlying focal point of AWCFT is on computer vision calculations for protest identification and characterization, it will unite all current calculation based-innovation activities related with US resistance knowledge. Command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) are achieving new statures of proficiency that empower information accumulation and preparing at exceptional scale and speed. At the point when the example acknowledgment calculations being produced in China, Russia, the UK, the US and somewhere else are combined with exact weapons frameworks, they will additionally expand the strategic preferred standpoint of unmanned elevated vehicles (UAVs) and other remotely worked stages. China’s resistance part has made achievements in UAV ‘swarming’ innovation, including an exhibition of 1,000 EHang UAVs flying in arrangement at the Guangzhou flying demonstration in February 2017. Potential situations could incorporate contending UAV swarms attempting to hinder each other’s C4ISR arrange, while at the same time drawing in dynamic targets.
Humans are the most intelligent creatures that created an artificial intelligence technology. The technology we human introduced is more intelligent than us and works fastest than humans. So here is big question marks that can humans compete with the artificial intelligence in near future. Now days it seems that AI is replacing humans in every field of life so what will be condition after decades or two. There is an alarming competition started between the human and AI. AI was called as demon by Tesla Elon Musk. A well physicist Stephen Hawking also stated that in future artificial intelligence could be proved as a bad omen for humanity. But signs of all this clear and we can clearly see the replacement of humans. We human are somehow losing the competition. But it is also clear that a creator can be destructor also. So as strategist we must have the counter strategies and second plans to overcome the competition. The edge human have over AI is the ability to think and we generate this in AI integrated techs so we must set the level for this. Otherwise this hazard could be a great threat in future and humanity could possibly be an extinct being.
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