A number of analysts, columnists and Mideast watchers have been, for last couple of years, forecasting a thaw in Egypt-Iran relations. Citing a series of overtures from each of Iran and Egypt towards the other, many experts argue that closer and warmer cooperation between the two is underway.
Despite being an ally of Iranian regime’s arch rival Saudi Arabia, Egypt’s foreign policy towards Syria is similar to – but not in the same direction as – that of the Iranian regime. Furthermore, the regime in Tehran has recognised Egypt as a stabilising power in the Middle East through supporting for Egypt’s participation in Lausanne (Switzerland) conference on Syria.
However, Egypt’s closer cooperation with Iranian regime would neither eventually be given effect by current the Egyptian government nor Egypt would be allowed to go ahead with such a warmer cooperation with Iran by other regional players, proving wrong the aforesaid experts who forecast about a thaw in Egypt-Iran relations.
Despite Egyptian government’s overtures towards the Iranian regime, Egypt is bound – under President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi – to remain allied to the Iranian regime’s regional rivals, i.e. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE), because:
Saudi Arabia and UAE had sent financial aid to and foreign direct investment in Egypt following Sisi’s accession to power, so that Sisi can consolidate his power. Besides being thankful for this generous help, Egypt’s falling economy has been pushing Sisi government to ask for continued aid and cash-inflows from these two Gulf governments, which are engaged in fierce rivalry with the Iranian regime.
The regime in Tehran is unable to stabilize the Iranian economy due to international sanctions. The withdrawal of sanctions by the U.S. administration under Barack Obama – followed by the re-imposition of even tougher sanctions under Donald Trump’s U.S. administration – has compelled the investors to conclude that Iran is, in the current circumstances, an inconsistent and risky market. Hence, this weaker Iranian economy and market do not have the possibility to reach in any stable and strong position soon enough to provide Egypt with sufficient cash or foreign direct investments – something that can only be guaranteed by the Gulf duo – i.e. Saudi Arabia and UAE.
Egypt’s administration – under Sisi – is largely dependent on the Gulf duo’s financial, diplomatic and political support in order to tackle Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, which is Sisi’s major opposition at home. Furthermore, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE are the contributors to the ongoing diplomatic and economic blockade on Qatar. The blockade has been imposed with the purpose of compelling Qatar to abandon its policy of supporting terrorism as well as to abandon its support for Muslim Brotherhood’s campaigns throughout the region, including Egypt. This new dimension made Egypt’s dependence on the Gulf duo ever deeper.
Egyptian premier Abdel Fatah al-Sisi understands very well that for the sake of a closer cooperation with the Iranian regime, his government cannot risk antagonizing the Gulf duo, which not only finance Egypt’s shaky economy, but also backs Sisi’s fight against Muslim Brotherhood.
At the same time, the Gulf duo cannot, and will not, let Egypt fall out of its political orbit, since Egypt is the duo’s best insurance against the regional foes – Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian regime.
Egypt – under Sisi – has been maintaining good relations and deep cooperation with the Gulf duo. The duo prefers to keep Muslim Brotherhood – an organization that professes a ‘so called’ Islamic democracy across the region – largely ineffective inside their borders by making sure that the Sisi government is neutralizing the organization inside Egypt, from where the organization allegedly runs its regional campaigns. Muslim Brotherhood is banned in the Gulf duo.
The Gulf duo fears that if Muslim Brotherhood comes to power in Egypt (though a Muslim Brotherhood backed government came to power in recent past and was overthrown a year later), the organization will certainly try to patronise Muslim Brotherhood-like organizations inside the Gulf duo and elsewhere in the region, threatening the region’s stability. As Egypt’s current premier Abdul Fatah al-Sisi came to power by overthrowing the Muslim-Brotherhood-backed government of Mohammad Morsi, the Gulf duo perceive him as the right person to curb the organization’s campaign in Egypt.
Besides keeping Muslim Brotherhood under check in the region, the Gulf duo needs Egypt for the overall balance of power in the region. Availing an ally like Egypt – which is a Sunni-majority regional military power – gives the Gulf duo a boost against another regional foe, the Iranian regime.
Thus, despite the recent positive overtures from Sisi government and the Iranian regime towards each other, Sisi cannot afford to proceed with a closer cooperation with Iran and risk losing the friendship of Saudi Arabia, UAE and other like-minded Arab allies.
Turkey and the time bomb in Syria
The Turkish attack on northern Syria has provided conditions for ISIS militants held in camps in the region to escape and revitalize themselves.
Turkey launched “Operation Peace Spring” on Wednesday October 9, claiming to end the presence of terrorists near its borders in northern Syria. Some countries condemned this illegal action of violation of the Syrian sovereignty.
The military attack has exacerbated the Syrian people’s living condition who live in these areas. On the other hand, it has also allowed ISIS forces to escape and prepare themselves to resume their actions in Syria. Before Turkish incursion into northern Syria, There were many warnings that the incursion would prepare the ground for ISIS resurgence. But ignoring the warning, Turkey launched its military attacks.
Currently, about 11,000 ISIS prisoners are held in Syria. ISIS has claimed the responsibility for two attacks on Qamishli and Hasakah since the beginning of Turkish attacks.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump said that Turkey and the Kurds must stop ISIS prisoners from fleeing. He urged European countries to take back their citizens who have joined ISIS.
It should be noted that the U.S. is trying to prove that ISIS has become stronger since the U.S. troops pulled out before the Turkish invasion, and to show that Syria is not able to manage the situation. But this fact cannot be ignored that ISIS militants’ escape and revival were an important consequence of the Turkish attack.
Turkish troops has approached an important city in the northeast and clashed with Syrian forces. These events provided the chance for hundreds of ISIS members to escape from a camp in Ayn Issa near a U.S.-led coalition base.
The camp is located 35 kilometers on the south of Syria-Turkey border, and about 12,000 ISIS members, including children and women, are settled there. The Kurdish forces are said to be in charge of controlling these prisoners.
Media reports about the ISIS resurgence in Raqqa, the former ISIS stronghold, cannot be ignored, as dozens of terrorists have shot Kurdish police forces in this city. The terrorists aimed to occupy the headquarters of the Kurdish-Syrian security forces in the center of Raqqa. One of the eyewitnesses said the attack was coordinated, organized and carried out by several suicide bombers, but failed.
In response to Turkey’s invasion of Syria, the Kurds have repeatedly warned that the attack will lead to release of ISIS elements in the region. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyib Erdogan denied the reports about the escape of ISIS prisoners and called them “lies”.
European officials fear that ISIS prisoners with European nationality, who have fled camps, will come back to their countries.
Kurdish forces are making any effort to confront Turkish troops in border areas, so their presence and patrol in Raqqa have been reduced.
Interestingly, the Turkish military bombarded one of temporary prisons and caused ISIS prisoners escaping. It seems that ISIS-affiliated covert groups have started their activities to seize the control of Raqqa. These groups are seeking to rebuild their so-called caliphate, as Kurdish and Syrian forces are fighting to counter the invading Turkish troops. Families affiliated with ISIS are held in Al-Hol camp, under the control of Kurdish forces. At the current situation, the camp has turned into a time bomb that could explode at any moment. Under normal circumstances, there have been several conflicts between ISIS families in the camp, but the current situation is far worse than before.
There are more than 3,000 ISIS families in the camp and their women are calling for establishment of the ISIS caliphate. Some of SDF forces have abandoned their positions, and decreased their watch on the camp.
The danger of the return of ISIS elements is so serious, since they are so pleased with the Turkish attack and consider it as an opportunity to regain their power. There are pictures of ISIS wives in a camp in northern Syria, under watch of Kurdish militias, showing how happy they are about the Turkish invasion.
In any case, the Turkish attack, in addition to all the military, political and human consequences, holds Ankara responsible for the escape of ISIS militants and preparing the ground for their resurgence.
Currently, the camps holding ISIS and their families are like time bombs that will explode if they all escape. Covert groups affiliated with the terrorist organization are seeking to revive the ISIS caliphate and take further actions if the Turkish attacks continue. These attacks have created new conflicts in Syria and undermined Kurdish and Syrian power to fight ISIS.
From our partner Tehran Times
The Turkish Gambit
The only certainty in war is its intrinsic uncertainty, something Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could soon chance upon. One only has to look back on America’s topsy-turvy fortunes in Iraq, Afghanistan and even Syria for confirmation.
The Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria has as its defined objective a buffer zone between the Kurds in Turkey and in Syria. Mr. Erdogan hopes, to populate it with some of the 3 million plus Syrian refugees in Turkey, many of these in limbo in border camps. The refugees are Arab; the Kurds are not.
Kurds speak a language different from Arabic but akin to Persian. After the First World War, when the victors parceled up the Arab areas of the Ottoman Empire, Syria came to be controlled by the French, Iraq by the British, and the Kurdish area was divided into parts in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, not forgetting the borderlands in Iran — a brutal division by a colonial scalpel severing communities, friends and families. About the latter, I have some experience, having lived through the bloody partition of India into two, and now three countries that cost a million lives.
How Mr. Erdogan will persuade the Arab Syrian refugees to live in an enclave, surrounded by hostile Kurds, some ethnically cleansed from the very same place, remains an open question. Will the Turkish army occupy this zone permanently? For, we can imagine what the Kurds will do if the Turkish forces leave.
There is another aspect of modern conflict that has made conquest no longer such a desirable proposition — the guerrilla fighter. Lightly armed and a master of asymmetric warfare, he destabilizes.
Modern weapons provide small bands of men the capacity and capability to down helicopters, cripple tanks, lay IEDs, place car bombs in cities and generally disrupt any orderly functioning of a state, tying down large forces at huge expense with little chance of long term stability. If the US has failed repeatedly in its efforts to bend countries to its will, one has to wonder if Erdogan has thought this one through.
The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 is another case in point. Forever synonymous with the infamous butchery at Sabra and Shatila by the Phalange militia facilitated by Israeli forces, it is easy to forget a major and important Israeli goal: access to the waters of the Litani River which implied a zone of occupation for the area south of it up to the Israeli border.
Southern Lebanon is predominantly Shia and at the time of the Israeli invasion they were a placid group who were dominated by Christians and Sunni, even Palestinians ejected from Israel but now armed and finding refuge in Lebanon. It was when the Israelis looked like they were going to stay that the Shia awoke. It took a while but soon their guerrillas were harassing Israeli troops and drawing blood. The game was no longer worth the candle and Israel, licking its wounds, began to withdraw ending up eventually behind their own border.
A colossal footnote is the resurgent Shia confidence, the buildup into Hezbollah and new political power. The Hezbollah prepared well for another Israeli invasion to settle old scores and teach them a lesson. So they were ready, and shocked the Israelis in 2006. Now they are feared by Israeli troops.
To return to the present, it is not entirely clear as to what transpired in the telephone call between Erdogan and Trump. Various sources confirm Trump has bluffed Erdogan in the past. It is not unlikely then for Trump to have said this time, “We’re leaving. If you go in, you will have to police the area. Don’t ask us to help you.” Is that subject to misinterpretation? It certainly is a reminder of the inadvertent green light to Saddam Hussein for the invasion of Kuwait when Bush Senior was in office.
For the time being Erdogan is holding fast and Trump has signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Turkish officials and institutions. Three Turkish ministers and the Defense and Energy ministries are included. Trump has also demanded an immediate ceasefire. On the economic front, he has raised tariffs on steel back to 50 percent as it used to be before last May. Trade negotiations on a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey have also been halted forthwith. The order also includes the holding of property of those sanctioned, as well as barring entry to the U.S.
Meanwhile, the misery begins all over again as thousands flee the invasion area carrying what they can. Where are they headed? Anywhere where artillery shells do not rain down and the sound of airplanes does not mean bombs.
Such are the exigencies of war and often its surprising consequences.
Author’s Note: This piece appeared originally on Counterpunch.org
Could Turkish aggression boost peace in Syria?
On October 7, 2019, the U.S. President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of American troops from northeast Syria, where the contingent alongside Kurdish militias controlled the vast territories. Trump clarified that the decision is connected with the intention of Turkey to attack the Kurdish units, posing a threat to Ankara.
It’s incredible that the Turkish military operation against Kurds – indeed the territorial integrity of Syria has resulted in the escape of the U.S., Great Britain, and France. These states essentially are key destabilizing components of the Syrian crisis.
Could this factor favourably influence the situation in the country? For instance, after the end of the Iraqi war in 2011 when the bulk of the American troops left the country, the positive developments took place in the lives of all Iraqis. According to World Economics organization, after the end of the conflict, Iraq’s GDP grew by 14% in 2012, while during the U.S. hostilities the average GDP growth was about 5,8%.
Syria’s GDP growth should also be predicted. Not right away the withdrawal of U.S., French, British, and other forces, but a little bit later after the end of the Turkish operation that is not a phenomenon. The Turkish-Kurdish conflict has been going on since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire when Kurds started to promote the ideas of self-identity and independence. Apart from numerous human losses, the Turks accomplished nothing. It is unlikely that Ankara would achieve much in Peace Spring operation. The Kurds realize the gravity of the situation and choose to form an alliance with the Syrian government that has undermined the ongoing Turkish offensive.
Under these circumstances, Erdogan could only hope for the creation of a narrow buffer zone on the Syrian-Turkish border. The withdrawal of the Turkish forces from the region is just a matter of time. However, we can safely say that the Turkish expansion unwittingly accelerated the peace settlement of the Syrian crisis, as the vital destabilizing forces left the country. Besides, the transfer of the oil-rich north-eastern regions under the control of Bashar Assad will also contribute to the early resolution of the conflict.
It remains a matter of conjecture what the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia agreed on during the high-level talks. Let’s hope that not only the Syrians, but also key Gulf states are tired of instability and tension in the region, and it’s a high time to strive for a political solution to the Syrian problem.
J.P. Morgan to Support New World Bank Fund for Skills Development of India’s Workforce
J.P. Morgan today announced an up to $10 million commitment to a new World Bank Multi Donor Trust Fund focused...
Balochistan `insurgency ‘and its impact on CPEC
A dispute arose between Baloch leader Akber Bugti and then government led by Parvez Musharraf. Bugti was killed. How he...
An Open Letter to Duke and Duchess of Cambridge
Dear Uncle and Aunty, Greetings, This letter comes to you from your Pakistani nephew whom you do not know. I...
The CIIE: A gorgeous chorus of integrated world economy
The 2nd China International Import Expo (CIIE) will be held in Shanghai, China from November 5th to 10th. Iran will...
Balkans splitting EU apart
The European Union is going through a serious internal crisis over the prospects of its further expansion, with the main...
Five Reasons Why Countries in the Arabian Gulf are Turning to Renewables
As global leaders look to renewables as a way address the growing and multi-dimensional threat of climate change, traditional energy...
Libya: €2 million in humanitarian assistance to cover basic needs
As many continue to suffer from the ongoing conflict in Libya, the European Commission has announced today €2 million in...
Economy3 days ago
Modi’s India a flawed partner for post-Brexit Britain
Terrorism2 days ago
Indian Mujahideen, IS and Hizbul Tahrir: Breeding ground for terrorism in South Asia
Americas3 days ago
AMLO’s Failed State
South Asia2 days ago
Will CPEC be a Factual Game Changer?
Environment3 days ago
African financial centres step up efforts on green and sustainable finance
Southeast Asia2 days ago
Indonesia’s new electric car may disrupt its relations with Japan
Newsdesk3 days ago
New Target: Cut “Learning Poverty” by At Least Half by 2030
Africa1 day ago
The Sochi Summit and the Pride of Africa