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Sri Lanka’s Shifting Politics: 2018 Marks a Turning Point for SLFP

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Authors: Srimal Fernando and Pooja Singh

For the past twenty-five years, Sri Lanka’s freedom party have enjoyed enormous success in Sri Lanka’s political history. Yet, despite these great achievements under the presidency of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena, the presidency of Sirisena has faced a complicated political scenario in the past few weeks. This complicated process rose due to the swearing-in of a new prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksha on 26th October 2018. Losing the parliamentary majority severely limited the ability of Sirisena-Mahinda Government to control the parliamentary majority and push through loss without compromising with opposition parties such as the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Tamil National Alliance (TNA), Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the United National Party which comprises over 100 seats in a 225 assembly. The president dissolved the parliament under these circumstances and he has called on for general elections without having a floor test, this has been challenged by the opposition parties and the citizens of the country are confused and waiting for a stable democratic solution.

Looking back at the Sri Lanka’s post independent history, the 1978 Sri Lankan constitution gives the president the right to appoint a Prime Minister but the appointment needs the consent of the parliament, hence the executive powers is wasted by the Sri Lanka constitution in the president. It does not seem fair to say that Sri Lanka has failed to achieve a stable democratic system, hence, one could argue that this situation is a power transition to a power alteration. Similarly, in 1950’s S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, the founder of Sri Lanka Freedom Party crossed over from the ruling party, the united national party and united the forces of Sangha, Veda, Guru, Govi, Kamkaru. At the elections of 1957, the ruling United National Party won only 8 seats. The alliance between the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the Mahajana Eksath Perumana for the first time headed by SWRD Bandaranaike won a total no. of 60 seats. “We are friends of all, enemies of none”, the statement should be a reflection for the decision makers of the SLFP who carried the mandate of the party that influences country’s policy for its future. Bandaranaike’s premiership sadly came to an end after the assassination by a Buddhist monk. Later, the assassinated prime minister’s wife Sirimavo Bandaranaike became the world’s first woman prime minister and under her premiership, Sri Lanka became a republic in 1972. After the massive defeat of Sri Lanka freedom party, the Sri Lankan 1972 constitution was replaced by the president J. R. Jayewardene in 1978.

After a 17-years gap, Sri Lanka Freedom Party combined in an alliance named as People’s alliance under the leadership of Chandrika Bandaranaike came into power in 1994. President Chandrika took a much more flexible approach during her tenure from 1995 to 2005. When Mahinda first won presidency in 2005, he won every province in Sri Lanka except northern and eastern provinces in the island country. Since, the end of war, Sri Lankan govt. under the leadership of Mahinda has been punitive. Thereby, Mahinda stepping into the limelight for presidential elections in a closely contested presidential elections with Ranil Wickramsinghe. In fact, during his second tenure from 2010- 2015, former president Mahinda Rajapaksha became more tough minded since the end of 30-year war in Sri Lanka. One could argue Sri Lanka govt. under SLFP presidency have been punitive in the past twenty- five years.

In 2014, Mahinda Rajapaksha announced snap presidential elections as the election date approached, Maithripala Sirisena, the general secretary of SLFP defected from the party and joined the opposition led coalition named United National Front. With Maithripala, over dozens of ministers and members of parliament resigned from the SLFP in order to carry out the mandate announced by Sirisena. January 5, 2015 general elections saw a significant higher turnout and Maithripala became president along with Ranil Wickramsinghe and it was the major defeat for Mahinda Rajapaksha and his United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA). Soon after Sirisena was sworn in as president, he assumed the chairmanship of SLFP.

In contrast to the general elections in 2013, the 2015 general elections saw the UPFA led by Maithripala and the united UNF led by Ranil Wickramsinghe had retained its parliamentary majority until October 26, 2018.

The pragmatic policies implemented by Sirisena and Ranil Wickramsinghe government have gone much further than the policies that the two parties (UPFA and UNF) envisioned. The good governance reform from 2015-2018 have reworked the idea of moderate political, economic and social policies and to accommodate new methods in resolving the ethnic problem through a home grown solution. This president –prime minister’s strategy succeeded for reasons that have nothing to do with ideological or non-nationalism realignment to bring about a reconciliation process among the ethnic communities living in Sri Lanka.

During Sirisena’s last period especially in 2018, there was too much distrust built among the coalition partners of UNP and SLFP. These problems stem from the top, the new party PPJ led by Mahinda, a break-away fraction from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) played the role of a broker and was building his reputation among the SLFP vote bank. This also led to a situation where the SLFPs to work together with the UNPs in consolidating the coalition government. Further, loss in efficiency due to the widespread distribution of responsibilities among the coalition cabinet members and the loss in the recent council elections led to the collapse of UNP-UNF coalition government.

SLFP has come long way since 1957. A stable party system in Sri Lanka is a crucial element in consolidating democracy. The political development of the SLFP for over six decades had created a strong voter base especially in rural areas of Sri Lanka.

Hence, SLFP’s policies are today inadequate to deliver Sri Lankan citizen’s interests. SLFP policy makers must craft a new strategy to tackle the domestic voter base and the international community in finding a future path to become a formidable party in taking Sri Lanka to the next level of soci0-economic growth.

* Pooja Singh, a scholar of Masters in Diplomacy, Law, Business at Jindal School of International Affairs, India.

Research scholar at Jindal School of International Affairs, India and an editor of Diplomatic Society for South Africa

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South Asia

Countering Terrorism and the dawn of CPEC

Sabah Aslam

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China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is much more than just a development deal between two states; it is to a large extent a mega-project which encompasses many foyers of economy, trade and politics as well as strategy between two highly important states within Asia. It incorporates developing a network of roads, pipelines, and railways which connects Balochistan province in Pakistan with Xinjiang in China. It has heralded a cross country exchange of nationals who are working day and night to make this mega-project a successful one. At present, there is an estimate of around 20,000 Chinese nationals working across Pakistan, and this means that around 70,000 short-term visit visas are being issued each year.

But with all this being said, it needs to be understood that the current state of terrorism is threatening to the entire Endeavour and this needs to be catered to. There are countless foreign forces which are at work to derail this mega-project and Pakistan is understandably doing its part, but it also opens susceptibility for China. There is also a propaganda being floated around by some hostile forces which are against CPEC and this revolves around the perspicacity of China being a so called “future colonizing power” as well as the issue of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. This can add to some inside forces operational in making CPEC more vulnerable and sensitive. Furthermore, there is a threat of terrorism which is being emanated within the Baloch Insurgents as well as the added foreign pressure of other Islamist terrorist groups particularly the Islamic State’s (ISIS) local affiliates in the country.  The terror attacks which rocked Balochistan in December 2018 and January 2019 are testimonies of this.

To begin with it must be cleared that currently the Baloch insurgent groups have exhibited signs of antagonism toward the Chinese presence in Pakistan. This province has a dire sense of dearth paralleled with other provinces and because of this under-development and political instability there is a lack of trust within Baloch people towards the Federal governments. Adding the Chinese presence in this atmosphere has only proven to further this lack of trust and probable resentment. The idea of exploitation of local resources by the Chinese is a coming propaganda which has already surfaced and will be pushed by some entities which do not wish for CPEC to succeed. A total of six Baloch separatist groups have publicised displeasure toward the Chinese presence, which is impaired by the government’s inability to address Baloch grievances. In the year 2018, Allah Nazar Baloch who is the commander of the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) addressed a letter to the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, stating that Chinese nationals, including fishermen, laborers, and tourists, are legitimate targets for attacks. Furthermore, in 2018 the BLA (Baloch Liberation Army) targeted a bus transporting Chinese engineers in the Dalbandin district in a suicide bombing.

Moreover the Islamic State’s (IS) local branch for the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), has also targeted Chinese presence in Pakistan. The IS has labelled China an “oppressor of Muslims similar to Israel, India, and the U.S.” in the past. The increasing Chinese presence in Pakistani provinces gives these networks an opening to gain conspicuousness and coverage by targeting foreign nationals and business professionals which adds to their importance as well. With the Islamic State’s territorial defeat in Iraq and Syria, a possible shift toward Afghanistan and Pakistan as a safe-haven for operations, and portrayal of itself as a group that is as strong now as it was back in 2014.

China has strategic geostrategic interests in Pakistan which will be indomitable to avert CPEC from failing or its interests being targeted by terrorist and separatist groups. China has no doubt become more inclined to strengthen its counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan since 2015, the most recent example of which is the joint training exercise conducted in Punjab province in December 2018. Previously China has patented the TTP as a serious and well-engineered menace to peace and stability within Pakistan which adversely impacts the Chinese position in the state after the group threatened to cut off access to the Karakoram Highway.

The combativeness in Balochistan province is largely advocated to be a product of the proxy war between India and Pakistan. Pakistan has by and again claimed that Indian intelligence is tangled in Balochistan and has been capitalising on the militancy in the province. These proclamations were broadened in 2016, when an Indian national Kulbhushan Jadhav, was arrested and indicted by Pakistan of being a spy.

These loopholes present in security can add up to the overall stagnation and possible blacking out of the $62 billion dollar deal between two prominent states. If this deal goes through, Balochistan will be resuscitated and has the potential to turn into a developing province for the future. Of course Pakistan and its policy makers are not completely phased out as there is an active unit of forces which are taking care of the impeding issue at hand. The collaboration between Pakistan and China has enhanced and this vulnerability does not need to be worried about much in the context of the larger strategic cooperation. CPEC is prone to terrorism but it is also prone to safeguarding the project, the intensity of which far exceeds the threats. Furthermore, the Pakistan-China cooperative partnership to counter-terrorism is need of time, especially when the BRI is transforming the world from geo-political to geo-economic phase. Mutual trust, joint efforts, and regional cooperation is the key to completely eliminate the scourge of terrorism from the face of earth.

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Masood Azhar is not guilty nor involved in any crime

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China is a responsible state and understands its international obligations. China has become the second largest economy as well as geopolitical power of the emerging world. China’s wise decision to block Security Council’s resolution to declare Masood Azhar as terrorist is highly appreciated.

He was born at Bhawalpur on July 10, 1968. His father worked as the headmaster of the government school in Bhawalpur and very well respected in the society. He has five brothers and six sisters. He was educated at the JamiaIslamia and passed the almia (Islamic) examination in 1989.

He was blamed on several occasions by India and trialed in Pakistan. But found not guilty and released by courts. Courts in Pakistan are independent and well-known for delivering justice. The degree of freedom of Pakistani courts can be witnessed by their bold decisions against the two of sitting Prime Ministers of Pakistan. World has appreciated the justice system of Pakistan.

In fact, India is I habit of blaming Pakistan for its internal issues. On the one hand, India is using excessive force against its minorities and pushing them to the extreme corner, where they have left no option except taking arms. On the other hands, promoting and facilitating its extremist groups. India is a country, which officially promote intolerance, extremism, and spreading hate. Extremists in India has hijacked the Government and penetrated into all segments of the society. Especially in educational institutions and media. Their role is endangering not only the whole region, but the whole world.

India’s human rights violation records has exceeded the whole world. Its atrocities in Kashmir, Naga Land, Khalistan, Bihar, Assam, Tamil and Moa-ists, has been noticed by the International Amnesty and European Union and International Community.

Whenever, India bash Pakistan, we always asked them to provide evidence, which they do not have and cannot provide. Pakistan is a moderate, rational and responsible nation. We have offered India for providing reliable evidence so that we can take appropriate actions. In the latest, incident which happened on 14 February 2019 in Pulwama, which was 100% India’s domestic issue. Indian forces has tortured an innocent Kashmiri several time during the last few years. He was in the custody of Indian forces since 2017. But, habitually India blamed Pakistan. Without having any investigations, within hours India started bashing Pakistan and threatened for war. Prime Minister of Pakistan requested India to provide evidences or actionable intelligence, so that we can take any action. He offered a dialogue to settle all pending issues diplomatically. Instead of providing evidence and cooperation for dialogue, India has attacked Pakistan on 26 February 2019. Which is against all the norms of civilized world and UN charter. But Pakistan observed patience and restrained to avert escalation of full-scale war.

In fact, Masood Azhar is seriously ill for last several years and on bed. He cannot even move easily. Blaming him for any act of terrorism is injustice against humanity. India has tried to blame him several times in past. It is fourth attempt, where India has faced humiliated defeat. Hope, India may not have courage to put false allegations on any one else or use others as scapegoat in future.

France has presented a resolution to black list Masood Azhar, which was backed by UK and US. But the resolution was supported with evidences. In fact, the resolution may not be presented by France without having enough investigation and supported by solid evidences. UK and US has backed France only based on political reasons. This has damaged the reputation of Security Council too. It has been witnessed that UN has become tool for twisting other nations which do not fit-in Western Template. It is very unfortunate and alarming situation. However, China is a very mature and sensible nation, China has been coerced and victimized in past and can understand the responsibility of judging the truth. Chinese approach is appreciated and a ray of hope for all small countries and the whole developing world. It is appealed to international community and all peace loving nations as well as individuals to condemn coercing any individual or a country.

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US withdrawal from Afghanistan: The cure is worse than the disease itself

Adeel Abbas Mangi

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The US withdrawal from Afghanistan seems to be the replica of what already happened after Obama decided to leave Iraq in 2012.Recent withdrawal from Syria and Afghanistan is considered as the prospect of imminent defeat factor that influenced Trump’s decision ,and also the innumerable financial cost of war in both countries would impact US taxpayers around US 15.3 billion dollars in Syrian war and US 45 billion dollars in Afghanistan.

Currently, Afghanistan is not only a safe haven for Taliban leadership but there is a very complex-nest of band-outfits currently residing in war torn country. It is evident that Al-Qaeda with a huge cooperation with Taliban has been operating in this region, whereas ISIS  had already established a manageable command and control structure  with the collaboration of Pakistani-Taliban, lashkar-e-jhangvi, Ahrar-ul-hind, Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) in Tajikistan and Islamic movement of Uzbekistan as these connections are under surveillance-radar  of security institutions. 

Whereas, President Trump’s technique to combating terrorism looks like the back sideline, it looks loads like President  Obama’s. It’s heavy on the use of particular operations raids and American Airstrikes, however, it relies chiefly on indigenous forces to furnish the majority of the ground operations. To be certain, it’s not a carbon copy. It’s extra open to hazard authorizing extra missions than Obama’s could have, and delegating more selection-making to his subordinate military commanders. However, in comparison with the principal alternatives, a big conventional invasion, unrestricted airstrikes, an arms-off technique, or anything else it’s more like Obama’s 2016 coverage than now not. Defense Department officials described as a coordinated series of attacks on Taliban leaders and fighters, this current technique is orchestrated in order to gain high leverage in the process of   on-going negotiations with the Taliban.

Back to the main argument that right after US withdrawal from Iraq world has seen worst type of violence in the shape of Sunni-awakening moment resulted in formation of the world deadliest organization ISIS and to compare with the current security dynamics of Kabul so there would be a huge possibility of chaos in the region. Some experts speculate an even ferocious civil war could affect the Kabul government and weaken its army that would resultantly give gains to warlords to forge new power. That could open doors to new refugee crisis, cuts in international aid and could cripple the afghan military standing.

On the front of regional stability paradigm shift, Pakistan, Iran, China and Russia who have welcomed US withdrawal from the region and their pro-active role in bringing Taliban on negotiable table suggested through Taliban enmity against the increasing power accumulation by ISIS and their allied groups in Afghanistan.

Another reason behind Islamabad’s special consideration to sort out Afghan chapter due to Indian influence and their prospects to sabotage CPEC. Recent visit by MBS to Pakistan with a 20billion dollars investment and Aid package is considered as according to Theodore Karasik from the geostrategic consultancy Gulf State Analytics in Washington, “Saudi moves and investment in Pakistan are a set and established policy that seeks to better integrate Islamabad into Riyadh’s camp” and “align U.S. and Saudi policy with  Pakistan as part of the larger picture of the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition.”

For now, Pakistan geo-strategic location is once again changing the socio-economic projection to materialize the regional integration and importance at global calculus that frustrated many who wanted Islamabad’s global isolation. To be rationale, Pakistan’s economic zones are at huge risk due to be heavenly surrounded by warlords alongside border with Afghanistan. To mitigate that risk Pakistan military has completed border fencing of around 900km border wall with Afghanistan while the remainder of 2600km will be executed in 2019. The fence is provided with security cameras and motion detectors.

Besides of these arrangements, there is also a developing fear of more radicalization with respect to internal conflicts between Al-Qaeda leadership and ISIS. For this, these band outfits are     profoundly active in recruitment process as mentioned by Tom Craig in Washington post that Al-Qaeda with the collaboration of South Asian offshoot called al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), created by al-Qaeda’s top leader, Ayman al Zawahiri, in 2014 has started resurgence in order to slow advances by rival Islamic State militants in the region.

Moreover, it had been witnessed in Syrian crisis that the proximity between Al-Qaeda and ISIS could not be deniable factor. In 2013 Baghdadi had shocked the world by announcing that Al-Nusra front (Al-Qaeda offshoot) is now under command and control of ISI(Islamic State of Iraq) right after this merger it became the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria(Levant).

The current withdrawal and the postwar policy of US and its allies don’t suggest an acceptable terms for the Afghan’s as well as affecting regional actors. As argued by   Anthony H. Cordesman that “It is all too clear that any form of real and lasting peace requires “victory at the civil level as well as the military one, and that such a victory has three critical components: political unity, effective governance, and economic progress”.

Unfortunately, United states payback in all three areas for Afghans are still up in the Air. Trump’s once said in recent Cabinet meeting 2019 by referring ISIS and Taliban ambush that both are our enemies “Let them fight” and was suggesting his generals “Why don’t you let them fight?”  Why are we getting in the middle of it? These postures suggests the idiosyncratic behavior right now to tackle the prolonged un-ending Afghan quagmire. Therefore, Washington’s current strategy would open ways to unrelenting instability wave within South-Asia and it could affect the security apparatus in the west.  

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