During the meeting with Vladimir Putin, the Supreme Leader considered the US sanctions a very strong point of exchange for economic transactions outside the Dollar framework. He described the Iranian-Russian cooperation in Syria as an example of “American containment” and emphasized that “the same stand and success of the Islamic Republic is another successful example of American control, and Iran-Russia cooperation on global issues can restrain America.” By explaining and analyzing these words of leadership, we find that their positions take into account the realities of the region and the international scene and express their “strategic depth” to future issues of the world and the region.
Americans are in a difficult position, and they have to retreat from the implementation of the “policy toward zero export of Iranian oil” despite the high cost of diplomacy because they know they will succeed in implementing this policy, which will be able to report the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the newspaper. In the morning, without worrying about rising fuel prices for their cars in the afternoon! “To the extent that Bob Woodward, the American author of the book,” Fears, “admits,” the defeat and anger are the characteristics of these days of the White House. “Because of this, the United States announced that it would take the necessary measures to exempt countries from penalties.
Iran’s successful experience in resisting and circumventing previous sanctions, opposition from different countries to new sanctions, US embargo on other countries … Finally, the emergence of “the determination to stand up to US sanctions policies in the world” The American Sanctions Weapon razor becomes slower than ever. American think tanks of the Atlantic Council, Heritage, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies have reported in separate reports that “complex economic and geopolitical considerations make it extremely difficult to predict the effectiveness of sanctions, and that Tramp’s tweets about the most severe sanctions against Iran are just a psychological warfare. » US Ambassador to Tel Aviv David Friedman also said in response to the Israeli news agency Hume: “I’m not a Prophet to predict the future of sanctions!” So the US’s excessive use of sanctions against more than twenty countries in the world has led them to think of forming a “new economic-political bloc” that can be the basis for the collapse of the domination system in international relations. As evidence of progress toward this apparent “International sanctions have warned that” US sanctions will create an “ecosystem of sanctioned actors” that can make sanctions “ineffective” on the basis of “independent policies” and “common interests”. Russia also writes “In the near future, the sanctions imposed on the first and quickest action by replacing the national currency the commercial amalgam will leave the dollar “.
The important thing is that in the new economic block, there is a Shiite country, such as Iran, to the Sunni countries, such as Turkey, and to other non-Muslim countries, such as China and Russia, and other media spaces do not allow the United States to make the Islamic Republic a Shiite crescent. Accuse and form NATO in Arabic! The issue that caused the US disappointment is that Pakistan has become an adversary in the premiership of Imran Khan, with Malaysia and Indonesia, with the Republic of Saudi Arabia outside the camp.
Although the Americans refer to the centennial of the dollar, the dollar seeks to induce dangerous denial of the dollar, but first, the current value of the dollar itself is exaggerated and does not come from known financial backing, such as gold or other precious metals. Secondly, with the openness of the global trade gate, the wider circle of the front of the “war against the dollar” is the main victim of the dollar itself. Thirdly, opposition to the sanctions policy inside America has become a major challenge for the dollar. On the one hand, the United States Federal Reserve warned in its report that “global companies have been pushing for investment in the United States because of international trade tensions caused by US sanctions” and, on the other hand, more than sixty US-US trade unions have formed a coalition to tackle politics US sanctions “. Earlier, Trump’s senior aides also announced the formation of a core of resistance to the policies of the US president. So the time for the change of other systems was spent through sanctions and dollars, so that after seven years of bloody military intervention in Syria and the cost of billions of dollars failed to succeed in the policy of overthrowing the Syrian regime, and now it is stretching beyond the borders, not only Syria.
The new economic-political bloc can, firstly, accelerate trade relations between member countries by completely eliminating the dollar and challenging the role of the dollar in the global economy. Secondly, the member states can coordinate all their assets from banks in the United States and the West and invest in their own countries, which in the first act of Russia is withdrawing their gold reserves from the United States. This action, in addition to the surprising effects that affect the economies of the countries It can prevent the US and Western economies from challenging them to impose sanctions and pressure on them by blocking the properties of other countries. Thirdly, in such a situation, Europeans may also be forced to trade at least with the euro, which will also help the collapse of the dollar’s dominance. Fourth, this new block can help bilateral trade and multilateral treaties eliminate the full dollar from trade between member states. Fifth the new economic-political bloc can be formed with the expansion of organizations like Shanghai, or it can help them stand up against the dollar.
The Islamic Republic, with the experience of creating a military-defense bloc in the region centered around the flow of resistance and failure of American terrorists, can play a central role in shaping the new economic-political bloc, provided that the government, by abandoning passive politics, In front of the United States, and with the disappointment of Europeans and the activation of all their diplomatic capabilities, “Interacting with the World” does not just mean a relationship with the United States and several European countries! Unfortunately, despite the fact that the elimination of the dollar as an intermediary currency was the subject of the sixth program and 60% of our trade with other countries could be made with a bilateral monetary agreement, Iran has not yet been bilaterally a treaty with any country !? While China and Russia now have bilateral monetary agreements with about 35 countries, they have announced that they will use national currency in deals with all Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America a day ago, with Xi Jinping and Putin in Moscow. Contrary to Mr. Zarif’s claim that “the world is not prepared to stand up to America’s policies,” it is a fact that the international scene “America against the world and the world against the dollar” has risen, and “consensus against the US and the dollar” can be a major deterrent to stability. The path to “consensus on the Islamic Republic”. Unfortunately, the government and the State Department are seeking to approve the FATF rather than pursuing this important issue, which will, unlike the spatial environment, cause, in addition to Europe, other countries will not be able to trade with Iran! As the Revolutionary Guard warned, “it’s not necessary to join the conventions we do not know about depth.”
As the American Supreme Power struggles with the victory of the Islamic Revolution collapsed in the world, we can now see the collapse of the “dollar domination.” It’s not an optimistic claim, but a fact, because hatred of America’s policies is heavily influenced not only in the West Asian region and Islamic countries, but also around the world, are intensifying and, before any change in another country occurs, the global rage against the dollar may lead to a change in its own system. Even many European politicians, despite their resistance to anti-American alliances, concluded that their countries’ interests were to resist US sanctions. Wolfgang Ischinger, a German veteran diplomat and US ambassador to the United States who heads the Munich Security Conference, emphasized in an interview with Reuters on the eve of the publication of his book “The Rise of the World,” in an interview with Reuters. “With American policies, the need to distance America is felt more and more. The growing strength of the anti-American alliances and the diversion of countries into the coalition of Iran, Russia and China have increased. “The interior minister and Italian Deputy Prime Minister also warned on sanctions losses on the Arte Network that sanctions are lacking in logic and will continue to work to change this policy. This is the same thing in Leadership in Nowshahr, which stated that “the political and intelligent analysts of the world are surprised at the fact that Iran has failed the world powers and admit it to this fact.” Therefore, it should be regarded as “the first US policy” failed and believed not only the world as well as the United States itself has unwittingly resurrected against the dollar, and the time of “curbing the US” has come up with the “fall of the dollar”!
Turkey and the time bomb in Syria
The Turkish attack on northern Syria has provided conditions for ISIS militants held in camps in the region to escape and revitalize themselves.
Turkey launched “Operation Peace Spring” on Wednesday October 9, claiming to end the presence of terrorists near its borders in northern Syria. Some countries condemned this illegal action of violation of the Syrian sovereignty.
The military attack has exacerbated the Syrian people’s living condition who live in these areas. On the other hand, it has also allowed ISIS forces to escape and prepare themselves to resume their actions in Syria. Before Turkish incursion into northern Syria, There were many warnings that the incursion would prepare the ground for ISIS resurgence. But ignoring the warning, Turkey launched its military attacks.
Currently, about 11,000 ISIS prisoners are held in Syria. ISIS has claimed the responsibility for two attacks on Qamishli and Hasakah since the beginning of Turkish attacks.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump said that Turkey and the Kurds must stop ISIS prisoners from fleeing. He urged European countries to take back their citizens who have joined ISIS.
It should be noted that the U.S. is trying to prove that ISIS has become stronger since the U.S. troops pulled out before the Turkish invasion, and to show that Syria is not able to manage the situation. But this fact cannot be ignored that ISIS militants’ escape and revival were an important consequence of the Turkish attack.
Turkish troops has approached an important city in the northeast and clashed with Syrian forces. These events provided the chance for hundreds of ISIS members to escape from a camp in Ayn Issa near a U.S.-led coalition base.
The camp is located 35 kilometers on the south of Syria-Turkey border, and about 12,000 ISIS members, including children and women, are settled there. The Kurdish forces are said to be in charge of controlling these prisoners.
Media reports about the ISIS resurgence in Raqqa, the former ISIS stronghold, cannot be ignored, as dozens of terrorists have shot Kurdish police forces in this city. The terrorists aimed to occupy the headquarters of the Kurdish-Syrian security forces in the center of Raqqa. One of the eyewitnesses said the attack was coordinated, organized and carried out by several suicide bombers, but failed.
In response to Turkey’s invasion of Syria, the Kurds have repeatedly warned that the attack will lead to release of ISIS elements in the region. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyib Erdogan denied the reports about the escape of ISIS prisoners and called them “lies”.
European officials fear that ISIS prisoners with European nationality, who have fled camps, will come back to their countries.
Kurdish forces are making any effort to confront Turkish troops in border areas, so their presence and patrol in Raqqa have been reduced.
Interestingly, the Turkish military bombarded one of temporary prisons and caused ISIS prisoners escaping. It seems that ISIS-affiliated covert groups have started their activities to seize the control of Raqqa. These groups are seeking to rebuild their so-called caliphate, as Kurdish and Syrian forces are fighting to counter the invading Turkish troops. Families affiliated with ISIS are held in Al-Hol camp, under the control of Kurdish forces. At the current situation, the camp has turned into a time bomb that could explode at any moment. Under normal circumstances, there have been several conflicts between ISIS families in the camp, but the current situation is far worse than before.
There are more than 3,000 ISIS families in the camp and their women are calling for establishment of the ISIS caliphate. Some of SDF forces have abandoned their positions, and decreased their watch on the camp.
The danger of the return of ISIS elements is so serious, since they are so pleased with the Turkish attack and consider it as an opportunity to regain their power. There are pictures of ISIS wives in a camp in northern Syria, under watch of Kurdish militias, showing how happy they are about the Turkish invasion.
In any case, the Turkish attack, in addition to all the military, political and human consequences, holds Ankara responsible for the escape of ISIS militants and preparing the ground for their resurgence.
Currently, the camps holding ISIS and their families are like time bombs that will explode if they all escape. Covert groups affiliated with the terrorist organization are seeking to revive the ISIS caliphate and take further actions if the Turkish attacks continue. These attacks have created new conflicts in Syria and undermined Kurdish and Syrian power to fight ISIS.
From our partner Tehran Times
The Turkish Gambit
The only certainty in war is its intrinsic uncertainty, something Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could soon chance upon. One only has to look back on America’s topsy-turvy fortunes in Iraq, Afghanistan and even Syria for confirmation.
The Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria has as its defined objective a buffer zone between the Kurds in Turkey and in Syria. Mr. Erdogan hopes, to populate it with some of the 3 million plus Syrian refugees in Turkey, many of these in limbo in border camps. The refugees are Arab; the Kurds are not.
Kurds speak a language different from Arabic but akin to Persian. After the First World War, when the victors parceled up the Arab areas of the Ottoman Empire, Syria came to be controlled by the French, Iraq by the British, and the Kurdish area was divided into parts in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, not forgetting the borderlands in Iran — a brutal division by a colonial scalpel severing communities, friends and families. About the latter, I have some experience, having lived through the bloody partition of India into two, and now three countries that cost a million lives.
How Mr. Erdogan will persuade the Arab Syrian refugees to live in an enclave, surrounded by hostile Kurds, some ethnically cleansed from the very same place, remains an open question. Will the Turkish army occupy this zone permanently? For, we can imagine what the Kurds will do if the Turkish forces leave.
There is another aspect of modern conflict that has made conquest no longer such a desirable proposition — the guerrilla fighter. Lightly armed and a master of asymmetric warfare, he destabilizes.
Modern weapons provide small bands of men the capacity and capability to down helicopters, cripple tanks, lay IEDs, place car bombs in cities and generally disrupt any orderly functioning of a state, tying down large forces at huge expense with little chance of long term stability. If the US has failed repeatedly in its efforts to bend countries to its will, one has to wonder if Erdogan has thought this one through.
The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 is another case in point. Forever synonymous with the infamous butchery at Sabra and Shatila by the Phalange militia facilitated by Israeli forces, it is easy to forget a major and important Israeli goal: access to the waters of the Litani River which implied a zone of occupation for the area south of it up to the Israeli border.
Southern Lebanon is predominantly Shia and at the time of the Israeli invasion they were a placid group who were dominated by Christians and Sunni, even Palestinians ejected from Israel but now armed and finding refuge in Lebanon. It was when the Israelis looked like they were going to stay that the Shia awoke. It took a while but soon their guerrillas were harassing Israeli troops and drawing blood. The game was no longer worth the candle and Israel, licking its wounds, began to withdraw ending up eventually behind their own border.
A colossal footnote is the resurgent Shia confidence, the buildup into Hezbollah and new political power. The Hezbollah prepared well for another Israeli invasion to settle old scores and teach them a lesson. So they were ready, and shocked the Israelis in 2006. Now they are feared by Israeli troops.
To return to the present, it is not entirely clear as to what transpired in the telephone call between Erdogan and Trump. Various sources confirm Trump has bluffed Erdogan in the past. It is not unlikely then for Trump to have said this time, “We’re leaving. If you go in, you will have to police the area. Don’t ask us to help you.” Is that subject to misinterpretation? It certainly is a reminder of the inadvertent green light to Saddam Hussein for the invasion of Kuwait when Bush Senior was in office.
For the time being Erdogan is holding fast and Trump has signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Turkish officials and institutions. Three Turkish ministers and the Defense and Energy ministries are included. Trump has also demanded an immediate ceasefire. On the economic front, he has raised tariffs on steel back to 50 percent as it used to be before last May. Trade negotiations on a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey have also been halted forthwith. The order also includes the holding of property of those sanctioned, as well as barring entry to the U.S.
Meanwhile, the misery begins all over again as thousands flee the invasion area carrying what they can. Where are they headed? Anywhere where artillery shells do not rain down and the sound of airplanes does not mean bombs.
Such are the exigencies of war and often its surprising consequences.
Author’s Note: This piece appeared originally on Counterpunch.org
Could Turkish aggression boost peace in Syria?
On October 7, 2019, the U.S. President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of American troops from northeast Syria, where the contingent alongside Kurdish militias controlled the vast territories. Trump clarified that the decision is connected with the intention of Turkey to attack the Kurdish units, posing a threat to Ankara.
It’s incredible that the Turkish military operation against Kurds – indeed the territorial integrity of Syria has resulted in the escape of the U.S., Great Britain, and France. These states essentially are key destabilizing components of the Syrian crisis.
Could this factor favourably influence the situation in the country? For instance, after the end of the Iraqi war in 2011 when the bulk of the American troops left the country, the positive developments took place in the lives of all Iraqis. According to World Economics organization, after the end of the conflict, Iraq’s GDP grew by 14% in 2012, while during the U.S. hostilities the average GDP growth was about 5,8%.
Syria’s GDP growth should also be predicted. Not right away the withdrawal of U.S., French, British, and other forces, but a little bit later after the end of the Turkish operation that is not a phenomenon. The Turkish-Kurdish conflict has been going on since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire when Kurds started to promote the ideas of self-identity and independence. Apart from numerous human losses, the Turks accomplished nothing. It is unlikely that Ankara would achieve much in Peace Spring operation. The Kurds realize the gravity of the situation and choose to form an alliance with the Syrian government that has undermined the ongoing Turkish offensive.
Under these circumstances, Erdogan could only hope for the creation of a narrow buffer zone on the Syrian-Turkish border. The withdrawal of the Turkish forces from the region is just a matter of time. However, we can safely say that the Turkish expansion unwittingly accelerated the peace settlement of the Syrian crisis, as the vital destabilizing forces left the country. Besides, the transfer of the oil-rich north-eastern regions under the control of Bashar Assad will also contribute to the early resolution of the conflict.
It remains a matter of conjecture what the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia agreed on during the high-level talks. Let’s hope that not only the Syrians, but also key Gulf states are tired of instability and tension in the region, and it’s a high time to strive for a political solution to the Syrian problem.
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