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China and Europe post double digit increases in R&D spending

MD Staff

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Annual worldwide corporate R&D spending increased by 11% in 2018, totaling US$782bn in annual investment, based on an annual analysis of the 1000 largest global public companies by R&D spend conducted by PwC’s Strategy&.

The 14th edition of PwC’s Strategy& Global Innovation 1000 Study shows how innovation investment is related to long-term growth strategies and confidence, with R&D spending increasing across all regions and nearly all industries.

Globally, all regions saw an increase in R&D spend, most notably China (+34%) and Europe (14%) where spending grew by double digit rates, while North America (+7.8%)  and Japan (+9.3%) saw only single digits increases in R&D. Overall R&D intensity – the measure of R&D spending relative to sales – remains at an all-time high of 4.5%.

Barry Jaruzelski, Principal, PwC US, Strategy&, comments:“The standard of innovation excellence has been rising as businesses have become more competitive in the 21st century. Despite the record high levels of investment, the study’s findings are a further confirmation that innovation excellence isn’t something that can be bought by simply spending more on R&D. Rather, it’s the result of painstaking attention to strategy, culture, senior executive involvement, deep customer insights, and disciplined execution across the innovation cycle.”

In a five-year study of company performance and innovation investment relative to industry peers as part of this year’s report, 88 companies world-wide, across all regions and industries, were assessed as ‘high-leverage innovators’.

These companies outperformed their industry groups on seven key measures of financial success for a sustained five-year period, while at the same time spending less than the median of their industry peers on R&D as a percentage of sales. The basket of seven metrics of financial success include revenue growth, market capitalization growth, operating margin, gross margin, operating profit growth, gross profit growth, and total shareholder return (TSR).

While high-leverage innovators had similar operating and gross margins as other Global Innovation 1000 companies for the five years ending in 2017, the companies demonstrated sales growth which was 2.6 times greater than other companies on the Global Innovation 1000 list and with growth in market capitalization that was 2.9 times higher. High-leverage innovator firms achieved performance at least twice as high as other firms on all other metrics examined. They achieved this sustained superior performance while spending less that the median of their industry peer group on R&D as a percentage of sales for the entire five-year period.

Common characteristics of this set of high-growth companies include:

Alignment: 77% of fastest growing firms say their innovation strategies are highly aligned with their business strategies, compared with 54% of respondents that report the same growth, and 32% of respondents that report slower growth.

Culture: 71% of respondents that report their companies’ revenues are growing faster than competitors say their corporate cultures are highly aligned with their innovation strategy, compared with 53% of companies that report the same growth, and 33% of companies that report slower growth.

Leadership: 78% of companies reporting higher than peer revenue growth say their executive team is highly or closely aligned with R&D investment and innovation strategy, compared with 62% for same-growth companies, and 53% for slower-growth companies.

Regionally, the list reflects the continued dramatic rise of China-based companies — from 3% in the first High-leverage Innovators assessment in 2007 to 17% in 2017. Europe too increased significantly from 18% in 2007 to 30% in 2017.  The number of high-leverage innovators fell 45% for North American companies and 8% for Japanese companies.

By industry, the number of high-leverage innovators rose from 2007 to 2017 in telecommunications, consumer, healthcare, industrials, autos, and aerospace and defence, while the numbers fell in chemicals and energy, computing and electronics, and software and internet.

Of over 1,000 companies examined across three distinct five-year periods ending in 2007, 2012 and 2017; only two companies attained the status of high-leverage innovator across the entire 15-year period:  Apple and Stanley Black & Decker.

Barry Jaruzelski, Principal, PwC US, Strategy& comments:“The success of these high-leverage innovators reaffirms a consistent finding of our study over time: there is no long-term correlation between the amount of money a company spends on its innovation efforts and its overall financial performance. Instead, what matters is how companies use that money and other resources, as well as the quality of their talent, processes, and decision making, to create products and services that connect with their customers unarticulated needs.”

Global Innovation 1000

The Strategy& Global Innovation 1000 study analyses spending at the world’s 1000 largest publicly-listed corporate R&D spenders and is now in its 14th year. Other key findings include:

  • Amazon maintained the top spot as the largest spender on R&D in the Global Innovation 1000 study, for the second year in a row. Sanofi and Siemens rejoined the Top 20 spenders globally.
  • Apple regains the top rank as the world’s most innovative company from Alphabet, while Netflix joins the top 10 most innovative companies list for the first time, according to a global survey of R&D leaders and managers.
  • The consumer industry overtook the software & internet industry for the first time in five years, experiencing fastest year-on-year growth in R&D spending (26% vs 20.6%)
  • Healthcare industry in on track to become the biggest R&D spending sector by 2020.
  • Computing & electronics, healthcare and automotive industries together represent 60% of global corporate R&D spending in 2018.
  • China and Europe saw increases in the number of companies in the Top 1000, while North America (-5%), Japan (-6%) saw decreases.
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The global public overwhelmingly favours multilateral cooperation

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A global opinion poll published today by the World Economic Forum finds that a clear majority of people in all regions of the world say they believe cooperation between nations is either extremely or very important. It also finds that a large majority rejects the notion that national improvement is a zero-sum game, and that most people feel that immigrants are mostly good for their adopted country.

The research, covering a sample size of over 10,000 people from every region of the world, was commissioned ahead of next week’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. The findings can be viewed as an endorsement by the public of the key principles of the multilateral system. It also roundly debunks the negative notion of immigrants that has raced to the top of the news agenda across Europe, North America and elsewhere.

However, regional viewpoints differ. Asked how important it is that countries work together towards a common goal, a global average of 76% said they believe it is either extremely important or very important. These sentiments are felt most strongly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where 88% share the same view. At the other end of the scale, only 61% of Western Europeans and 70% of North Americans say they consider cooperation to be extremely or very important.

Asked whether their country has a responsibility to help other countries in the world, South Asians again registered the highest levels of concurrence, with 94% answering positively compared to a global average of 72%. Again, North Americans and Western Europeans were the least effusive, with only 61% and 63% respectively answering in the affirmative.

While a global majority of respondents – 57% – say they believe that immigrants are “mostly good” for their new country, only 40% of those living in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and 46% of respondents in Western Europe subscribe to the same opinion. Perhaps unsurprisingly given its history, North Americans trailed only South Asians in their approval of immigrants, with 66% saying they believe immigrants are mostly good.

The data, which came about as a result of a collaboration with Qualtrics, will be used in panel discussions and workshops at the Annual Meeting as a guide for participants as they explore how to build an architecture for global governance that is capable of fostering the international collaboration necessary to solve the world’s most critical challenges.

One finding that will surely prove valuable to the discussions is the fact that, while most people still believe in the power of international cooperation, they share a much less positive view of their own country when it comes to social progress. This despondency at the lack of upward mobility is felt most acutely in Western Europe, where only 20% of respondents said they feel it is either extremely common or somewhat common for someone to be born poor and become rich through hard work. Respondents in the United States, where the ideal of the American Dream is deeply rooted in the national consciousness, were only a little more positive with 34% saying they believe the statement to be either extremely or very common.

“The combination of climate change, income inequality, technology and geopolitics pose an existential threat to humanity. What we see with this research is that, while the international community’s capacity for concerted action appears constrained, the overwhelming desire of the global public is for leaders to find new ways to work together that will allow them to cooperate on these critical shared challenges we all face,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.

“This is a bold reminder that listening is critical to leadership,” said Bill McDermott, CEO of SAP. “If we just have the courage to ask, the people always know what problems need solving. I’m proud we will enter this annual meeting with such a compelling view of the human experience, unfiltered, from the people who are actually living it.”

As well as providing insight into the global public’s attitudes on opportunity and international relations, the survey also shines a light on other important matters of global importance in 2019. For example, on the subject of sustainability, 54% of respondents said they have either a “great deal” or “a lot” of trust in what climate scientists say. At the other end of the spectrum, the region in the world where most respondents have little or no trust in climate scientists is North America, with only 17% responding positively.

When it comes to the role of technology in society, the number of people that say they believe technology does more good than harm outnumber those who say they think it does more harm than good by a factor of nearly four to one. However, when asked whether they agree with the statement that technology companies are more interested in making the world a better place rather than simply making money, responses differed markedly between regions. The region of the world where respondents take the most positive view of technology is sub-Saharan Africa, where 66georg% of those surveyed agree that technology companies want to make the world a better place, followed by South Asia (64%) and East Asia and the Pacific (63%). This compares to only 39% of Western Europeans and 40% of North Americans and respondents from Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

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Oil Market Report: A marathon, not a sprint

MD Staff

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Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.

The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.

Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.

For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.

In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.

IEA

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Macroeconomic Stability in Lao PDR Amidst Uncertainty

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Economic growth in Lao PDR is estimated at 6.5 percent in 2018, down from 6.9 percent in 2017, in part due to the adverse impact of the recent widespread floods. The construction of infrastructure, export of electricity, and service sector have been the main drivers of growth in 2018. The medium-term economic outlook is favorable but subject to risks, including a volatile global economic environment, according to the latest edition of the World Bank’s Lao Economic Monitor, released today.

Economic growth remains robust in Lao PDR, and the government has made important inroads on the reform front, notably on revenue collection. The path of fiscal consolidation, despite the recent natural disasters, is welcome,” said Nicola Pontara, World Bank Country Manager for Lao PDR. “Looking forward, Lao PDR should continue to invest in its human capital to boost productivity, which is key to support both long-term growth and further poverty reduction.”

According to the report, the fiscal deficit is estimated to narrow from 5.3 percent of GDP in 2017 to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2018. The government is committed to reducing public debt, estimated at around 60 percent of GDP, by following a path of fiscal consolidation, with emphasis on raising revenue collection, tighter control of public spending, and better management of public debt. Inflation is estimated at around 2.1 percent in 2018 from an average of 0.8 percent in 2017 driven by both higher average domestic food and fuel prices and a depreciation of Lao Kip against major currencies.

The report includes a thematic section on human capital, which highlights the importance of investing in people. A child born today in Lao PDR is only 45 percent as productive as she could be if she enjoyed full education and healthcare. Stunting levels among Lao children are higher, and the probability of survival to age five is lower, than those of countries at similar income levels. Moreover, despite an average of actual 10.8 years accumulated in school by age 18, once adjusted for the quality of learning, children in Lao PDR only complete 6.4 years of schooling.

The report concludes that improving human development outcomes in health and education in Lao PDR requires a combination of systemic and sector-specific interventions. For instance, better and greater investments in mother and child health, as well as improved quality of education since early childhood are important interventions to increase the productivity and well-being of new generations. Combined with institutional reforms to improve service delivery mechanisms in health and education, these policies can support the country’s long-term economic prospects.

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