Growing global trade tensions are weighing on non-energy commodity prices and are leading to downward revisions to 2019 price forecasts, the World Bank said.
Oil prices are forecast to average $74 a barrel over 2019, only marginally up from a projected average of $72 a barrel in 2018, while metals prices are expected to remain broadly stable in 2019, the World Bank said in its October Commodity Markets Outlook.
Prices for energy commodities – which include oil, natural gas, and coal — are forecast to average 33.3 percent higher in 2018 than the previous year but to broadly stabilize in 2019, the World Bank said. U.S. oil production growth is expected to be robust whereas oil production losses are expected in Iran and Venezuela. Global demand is expected to hold steady.
Prices for agricultural commodities, including food commodities and raw materials, are anticipated to decline marginally in 2018 amid ample supply and trade tensions before rising 1.6 percent in 2019.
The metals index is expected to rise 5.4 percent this year and decline modestly in 2019. Prices could drop more than expected if global trade frictions intensify.
“Further escalation of trade restrictions between major economies could lead to large economic losses and cascading trade costs through global value chains,” said Shanta Devarajan, World Bank Senior Director for Development Economics and acting Chief Economist. “Any setbacks to growth in major economies would have significant negative repercussions for the rest of the world through trade, confidence, financial, and commodity-market channels.”
The imposition of both commodity-specific and broad-based tariffs this year has reduced and diverted trade flows; amplified price differentials between some countries among some commodities including soybeans, steel and aluminum; and more generally led to concerns about weaker global trade and growth prospects, the World Bank said in the report.
“The outlook for commodity prices is highly uncertain given a number of policy-related risks, which include the possibility of additional tariffs or sanctions,” said Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank’s Development Economics Prospects Group. “In addition, demand for industrial commodities is likely to soften in coming years. A large number of emerging market and developing economies depend on raw materials for government and export revenues and should therefore be strengthening policy frameworks and rebuilding fiscal buffers.”
A special focus section examines changing patterns of demand for industrial commodities – energy and metals – and their implications for developing economies. Over the past 20 years, demand for commodities has surged in large part due to demand from China. As China’s economy matures and shifts toward less commodity-intensive activities, energy and metal demand growth is likely to slow.
“Slower growth in commodity consumption would likely dampen prices,” said John Baffes, Senior Economist and lead author of the Commodity Markets Outlook. “Further, other factors, such as advances in technology, shifts in consumer preferences, environmental concerns, and policies to encourage cleaner fuels could lead to sharper declines in global use of some commodities than current trends indicate.”
ADB Private Sector Deal to Promote Solar Power in Afghanistan
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has signed a $4 million loan with a special purpose vehicle and subsidiaries owned by the 77 Construction, Contracting, and Trading Group (77 Group), an international civil works contracting firm headquartered in Turkey, to help build a 15.1 megawatt (MW) solar power plant and promote the development of renewable energy in Afghanistan.
The borrower is Barakat Kandahar Solar Energy (BKSE), a special purpose vehicle majority owned by 77 Afghanistan, a subsidiary of 77 Group. The co-borrowers include three subsidiaries of 77 Group. The agreement was signed by Principal Investment Specialist at ADB’s Private Sector Operations Department Ms. Sonali Tang, and Chairman, BKSE, and owner of 77 Group Mr. Suleyman Ciliv.
“Having a stable, sustainable, and reliable energy source is important for the growth and development prospects of Afghanistan, where power generation and access is one of the lowest in the world,” said Senior Public–Private Partnership specialist at ADB’s Office of Public–Private Partnerships Mr. Mohammed Azim Hashimi. “ADB’s support for this important project will help provide long-term financing that is not available locally to build and operate a state-of-the-art solar power plant in Afghanistan.”
“77 Group would like to thank ADB for paving the way for investors in Afghanistan by supporting the first private sector-financed independent power producer ,” said 77 Group representative and project director Mr. Burak Unsal. “77 Group is keen to work with ADB on future renewable energy investment projects.’’
Afghanistan ranks in the bottom 5% in terms of per capita electricity usage, with only 30% of the country’s population connected to the grid in 2015. In terms of energy mix, solar power accounts for only about 1% or 3 MW of the country’s total installed generation capacity. This is despite Afghanistan having about 220,000 MW of solar power generation potential. The Government of Afghanistan aims to develop the country’s renewable energy generation, including solar power, so it can contribute at least 5,000 MW (40% share) to the national grid by 2032.
The Kandahar Solar Power Project will install a 15.1 MW solar photovoltaic power plant and related facilities, increasing the supply of clean power to the domestic grid in Afghanistan. The power plant will generate about 27.5 gigawatt-hours of electricity annually and avoid 8,500 tons of carbon dioxide emissions. It will also help lift the share of renewable energy in the country’s total installed power generation capacity to between 4,500 MW and 5,000 MW by 2032.
ADB will also administer a $3.85 million loan from the Canadian Climate Fund for Private Sector in Asia II (CFPS II) for the project. CFPS II was established in March 2017 to support greater private sector participation in climate change mitigation and adaptation in low and lower middle-income countries in Asia and the Pacific.
IEA holds Energy Efficiency Training Week in Paris
The International Energy Agency is hosting its 11th Energy Efficiency in Emerging Economies Training Week from 20 to 24 May. More than 120 energy efficiency professionals from 40 countries have come together in Paris for the event.
The objective of the training week is to enable participants to learn from leading experts in the field and from each other, strengthening the knowledge and networks needed to meet some of today’s most pressing challenges. The weeklong activities focus on the critical role of energy efficiency in mitigating growing energy demand across all sectors in the world’s fastest‑growing economies.
Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director, kicked off the event by stressing the importance of energy efficiency as the first fuel. “Many of the challenges the world is facing today – climate change, energy security, access to electricity – can be met at a large scale only by implementing the right energy efficiency policies,” he said.
Ambassadors from Brazil, Switzerland and the United Kingdom joined Dr Birol in the open plenary session to share their experiences and support for the training week. His Excellency, Mr. Carlos Márcio Cozendey, Ambassador and Delegate of Brazil to International Economic Organisations in Paris, commended the opportunity that the training week presents. “Energy efficiency will remain very important in Brazil, and international cooperation through the IEA and bilateral cooperation with different countries will be an important part of that,” he said.
Participants are engaged in one of five parallel courses, which focus on energy efficiency in buildings, industry, appliances and equipment, cities, and indicators and evaluation. Experts from the IEA are guiding participants through an interactive agenda, with lectures, discussions, practical exercises, site visits and group activities.
The IEA will host its first Energy Efficiency Training Week for Africa later this year and a specialised training programme on green buildings in Singapore from 16 to 18 July. Please keep an eye on our website for registration opening dates.
IEA holds high-level workshop on outlook for offshore wind energy
The IEA held a high-level workshop on the outlook for offshore wind energy on Monday, bringing together 80 senior representatives from government, the private sector, research groups, academia and international organisations.
Participants joined from countries around the world, including many from Europe, the United States, Japan and China. Altogether, the countries represented at the workshop account for 97% of current and planned offshore wind development.
Renewable energy is changing the nature of electricity supply, and offshore wind power has great potential to contribute to cleaner and more secure power systems. Technological improvements for offshore wind are improving performance and lowering the costs of the electricity it produces, drawing interest from markets across the globe.
Monday’s workshop covered the current status of and regional policy plans for the development of offshore wind, along with the key opportunities for accelerating deployment and the main challenges constraining growth. It took place in support of the first in-depth look at offshore wind in the World Energy Outlook (WEO), the IEA’s flagship publication.
“We must accelerate the deployment of all low-carbon technologies, from renewables to nuclear power to carbon capture, utilisation and storage,” Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director, said in his opening remarks. “Our analysis has shown that decarbonising electricity as rapidly as possible is at the heart of any sustainable energy future, and offshore wind has a major role to play in this effort.”
Renewables capacity growth worldwide stalled in 2018 after two decades of strong expansion. At the same time, additional electricity supply from renewable sources failed to keep pace with the rapid growth in electricity demand. As a result, the power sector accounted for almost two-thirds of the global increase in CO2 emissions, which reached an all-time high in 2018. In this context, tapping the potential of offshore wind alongside other low-carbon technologies will be critical to achieving global sustainable development goals.
Dr Birol will launch the WEO Special Report on Offshore Wind in October in Copenhagen, Denmark, alongside the Danish Prime Minister. The World Energy Outlook 2019 will be launched on 13 November.
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