Authors: Tim Gould & Ali Al-Saffar*
The pitfalls of relying on oil and gas revenues to fuel an entire economy have long been recognised: strategies aimed at economic diversification have featured in national development plans of major hydrocarbon-exporting economies since the early 1970s.
But the fall in oil prices that began in 2014 has given this debate a new urgency. It provided a reminder of the damage that the downswing in a commodity cycle can bring, with non-hydrocarbons sectors bearing the brunt of the decline in revenues. It also raised further questions about the long-term structural implications of two ‘revolutions’ in the world of energy: shale as a new source of supply, and the gathering implications of clean energy transitions on the demand side, including improvements in fuel efficiency and the rise of electricity as an alternative to oil in parts of the transportation sector.
In a new report, the Outlook for Producer Economies, we examine what these structural changes might mean, in different scenarios, for a diverse group of the world’s leading oil and gas exporters: Iraq, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
The results underline the strategic importance of the reform initiatives that are underway in many of these countries. Economic transformation and diversified growth are essential not only to deal with the changing dynamics of global energy, but also to generate opportunities for growing populations, including large numbers of young people entering the workforce in Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia.
Arguments for economic diversification often focus on the downside of resource abundance. There are ample reasons for concern: the volatility of oil and gas revenue – as shown above – creates public policy dilemmas for which there is no easy answer, and there are other potential pitfalls besides. But energy should not only be seen as part of the problem. In practice, our report shows that a well-functioning energy sector – bringing a wider range of resources and technologies into play – can be a durable source of advantage to today’s producers, providing some of the capital and know-how that can support more diversified growth. The reform process will be complex and challenging, but change in the energy sector is part and parcel of the development of more productive, innovative and sustainable economies.
In the Outlook for Producer Economies, we identify six areas where the outlook for the energy sector is closely tied to the broader reform agenda:
Capturing more domestic value from hydrocarbons: Many producers, including those in the Gulf and in Russia, are moving downstream in order to capture additional value from hydrocarbons resources, often co-locating new petrochemical facilities with refineries to capture operational synergies. Expansion into petrochemicals offers the potential for more resilient margins. Demand for petrochemical products, even with growing attention to reducing single-use plastics and increasing recycling, is relatively robust across different energy scenarios. Since they are not combusted, there are no direct emissions associated with the use of oil or gas as petrochemical feedstocks. In our main scenario, the Middle East remains by far the largest global oil exporter, but almost all of the increase in oil production in the Middle East to 2040 goes into refining or petrochemicals.
Use natural gas strategically in support of diversification goals: Natural gas has been a junior partner to oil in many producer economies, less lucrative and often produced as a by-product of oil developments as associated gas. But the potential significance of natural gas for diversification strategies is larger: it displaces oil in many applications and can also underpin an industrial strategy in a way that oil cannot. There is a need for strategic calculation about where and how gas – often together with renewables – can bring the best value to the energy system. Infrastructure is still lacking in some instances: Iraq and Nigeria still flare significant volumes of gas despite domestic shortages of electricity. Another challenge, especially in some parts of the Gulf, is to adapt pricing policies so that operators seek and produce gas as a commodity in its own right.
Tap the huge, under-utilised potential of renewables: Demand for electricity is growing fast across the Middle East and almost all of this increase has been met by gas-fired and oil-fired plants, despite the plummeting cost of new renewables-based electricity. Investment activity has picked up, but solar PV still makes up less than 1% of total generation in the Middle East; the opportunity cost of burning around 1.8 mb/d of oil to provide electricity is especially significant at a moment when global spare production capacity is starting to look thin. Even If oil were priced for generation at $40/barrel (well below its current market value), unsubsidised solar would be displacing it quickly. Solar resources are abundant and are also ideally suited to meeting the peak in the region’s summer generation due to air conditioners: in Saudi Arabia, daily demand for cooling peaks in the early afternoon and is a good match with peak solar PV output.
Phase out subsidised consumption of fossil fuels: pricing reforms have gained momentum in recent years, but the continued availability of oil products and natural gas at artificially low prices encourages wasteful consumption and distorts broader investment incentives across the economy. Even without subsidies, oil and gas exporters would still have a comparative advantage in energy, since a low production cost base can provide a stable low domestic price. This is of particular value in the case of gas and electricity, where a global commodity market is constrained by infrastructure bottlenecks and high transport costs, or does not exist at all. The report outlines how the implications of pricing reform for energy consumers can be mitigated substantially if reform is paired with enhanced energy efficiency measures, with significant fiscal and environmental benefits.
Ensure adequate investment in the upstream: The ability to maintain oil and gas revenues at reasonable levels provides an important element of stability for the economy as a whole, especially when market conditions are tough. It is therefore crucial for producers to maintain flows of investment to the upstream, even as they seek to broaden investment flows across their economies. Venezuela provides a stark example of the risks; a collapse in upstream spending has exacerbated shortfalls in revenue and accelerated the downward spiral of the economy as a whole.
Support the development of cleaner and more efficient energy technologies: Many producers have world-leading expertise in energy technologies; in addition to their potential in renewables, they are also well-positioned to develop new approaches that reduce or minimise the lifecycle emissions of oil and gas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, for example, are scaling up interest in carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Oman is pioneering the use of large concentrating solar projects for enhanced oil recovery. There are large-scale opportunities to pair up solar energy with the Middle East’s demand for desalination and clean water. It should not be taken for granted that the comparative advantage in energy of major producers diminishes in the energy transitions.
*Ali Al-Saffar, Energy Analyst.
MBS Outmaneuvers Russia’s Oil Politicking
In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, one of the major economic consequences has been the substantial hit to the energy industry.
Ever since the virus began to spread in January, global markets have been tumbling. This set the price of oil in a downward spiral, reversing many gains that had accumulated over the last several months. Demand for oil dropped for the first time in over a decade and forecasters at the International Energy Agency assess the decline will continue. While natural gas and coal markets have also been hit, oil demand has dropped more pronouncedly given it supports the freight and logistics sectors that have ground to a halt in recent weeks. The lack of demand for oil in China alone has had a devastating impact – Beijing’s newfound hunger for the commodity was responsible for most of the price increases recently.
However, these unique phenomena have had effects far beyond the purely economic. Politically speaking, the oil market crisis has pitted two global energy giants against each other, producing very intriguing results.
In early March, a meeting took place between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten other oil-producing countries, known as “OPEC+”. During the conference ending on March 6, Saudi Arabia’s leader, Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) reportedly pushed the idea of coordinating a reduction of output between Saudi Arabia and Russia. MBS planned to reduce output by over 1 million barrels per day, offsetting the major decrease in demand that had been triggered by the corona crisis to stabilize the market. The plan seemed like it was ready to go through until Moscow announced at the last minute that it would refuse. The Kremlin’s about-face came as a shock to OPEC and the international community who saw the move as an attempt to torpedo and politicize the oil sector.
Indeed, oil prices plunged by nearly 10% following the surprise move. It had been widely expected that the Russians would go along with the plan, simply because the alternative, i.e. leaving oil markets in a high-supply-low-demand frenzy, seemed much worse.
So what was at the heart of Russia’s bizarre decision? Revenge.
Washington imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil giant, Rosneft, a month ago over the company’s continued support in selling Venezuela’s oil. In an effort to retaliate, and perhaps prevent future American sanctions, Moscow was hoping to get Riyadh on its side in a plan to inflict economic pain on US shale producers. Moscow has for long felt American shale has been getting a free ride on the back of OPEC+ production cuts. For Moscow’s plan to work, it would still need the support of OPEC+ to ensure that price drops remained temporary and sustainable, since Russia’s oil economy cannot support its country playing oil politics for too long or for too much.
MSB on his part refused to take Russia’s actions lying down.
Almost immediately after Russia’s decision, Riyadh cut its official selling price for April down to $8, from a previous $14, in an effort to pressure Russia back into a deal. Days later, the Saudi government said it would begin increasing oil output to reach a record 13 million barrels per day. The decision came after authorities had already announced they were planning to increase output to 12.3 million. In a statement, Saudi Aramco, the largest energy producer in the world, stated, “it received a directive from the Ministry of Energy to increase its maximum sustainable capacity from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million.”
In essence, MBS has outmaneuvered the Russians in their attempt to hurt the global market and circumvent the effects of sanctions. In other words, MBS called Russia’s bluff by lowering prices even further so that the Kremlin could not dictate terms to OPEC. An impressive example of standing up to Russian manipulation, something that Western powers have been struggling to do for years.
Russia on its part has been reeling from the effects of the Prince’s decision.
On March 10, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak sought to project confidence, but acknowledged there was a decrease in prices and an increase in volatility. Novak also seemed to have admitted that his government made a mistake and had sought to reach out to the Saudis to “scheduled further meetings to estimate the situation.”
It is important to highlight that Russia was very likely thrown off balance by the Saudi reaction here. Moscow is not used to having its highhanded moves being responded to in kind, and almost certainly did not expect MBS to respond the way he did.
While the future of this fallout is still unknown, one thing is certain: MBS has demonstrated his country will not be another pushover to Russian aggression.
Saudis’ price war or a Russian plot against U.S. shale?
Since early Monday, the announcement of a “price war” between Saudi Arabia and Russia, two biggest OPEC+ allies, hit the headlines of almost all of the world’s news agencies and outlets and released a wave of panic across the markets all around the world.
Following the two sides’ bitter break up on Friday, oil markets started the week with a free fall; prices plunged nearly 30 percent on Monday to record the sharpest one-day fall in the past 29 years when the first Persian Gulf War was started in 1991.
Brent crude futures fell to nearly $30 on early Monday, the prices, however, bounced back later that day as the impacts of the event faded.
Energy experts and analysts are suggesting two completely different scenarios to explain the series of events that led to the Friday decision.
In one scenario, the one that is broadcasted globally, Saudi Arabia which wanted higher prices or at least wanted to maintain the current price levels asked for more cuts but Russia was OK with the current prices and even was ready for lower ranges so they didn’t agree and the OPEC+ deal ended.
The second scenario, which is more intriguing and more controversial, says that there is no “price war” between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and what we are witnessing is, in fact, Russia declaring war against the U.S.’s “global energy dominance”!
To learn more about the issue, the Tehran Times conducted an interview with Mahmoud Khaqani, an international energy expert. What follows is a summary of the expert’s views on the matter.
Saudis and Russia
Obviously, these days Saudi Arabia is not experiencing its best days. The Kingdom is under pressure both economically and politically.
According to Khaqani, the plunge in oil prices due to the sharp decline in global demand following the spread of coronavirus and its impact on the global economy and transportation has added significantly to the crown prince’s problems causing the young prince to call for deepening of the current 1.8 million cuts.
When faced with disagreement from its biggest non-OPEC allay Russia, the angry Saudi immediately lashed back by offering huge discounts for their oil prices and announcing that they would boost their production to more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd).
Russia, on the other hand, has maintained a calm attitude, saying that its oil industry is resilient enough to keep its market share and withstand even higher price downturns, he said.
Russia and the U.S.
Khaqani believes that the Russians are in fact at war with the U.S. oil industry, and Washington’s use of oil as a strategic asset.
What they call “price war” has already hit the U.S. oil industry hard since Friday and the persistence of the situation could damage the U.S oil industry and dethrone the U.S. from its position as the world’s largest oil producer.
Russia has targeted not only the U.S. oil industry but also the country’s bigger strategic programs for using oil and energy as leverage for applying corrective sanction policies, which Kremlin is already under.
Analysts believe that Russia is trying to thwart the U.S. sanctions that have been intervening with the completion of the country’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which would take natural gas to Europe, making Russia one of the biggest energy players in the world.
In response to the mentioned scenarios, The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has said that the U.S. will take all necessary measures to maintain its role as the world’s top energy producer and in fact, the country is not going to step back from its “global energy dominance” strategy.
Khaqani believes that the U.S. is seeking to take Saudi Arabia’s role in the oil market becoming the new swing producer capable of regulating production levels to control oil prices.
“These attempts by state actors to manipulate and shock oil markets reinforce the importance of the role of the United States as a reliable energy supplier to partners and allies around the world. The United States, as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, can and will withstand this volatility,” the DOE said in a statement.
Whatever the real reason for the rift between Saudi and Russia is, its impacts on the oil market are undeniable.
If the “war” is just between the kingdom and Russia many believe that the impacts will be short-lived and in the near future, we would witness the markets getting back to a more stable status.
The fact is that now after the break-up Saudi Arabia is going to flood the already oversupplied market with oil and eventually Russia which is not able to increase its production as much as the kingdom will have to step back.
If the second scenario is correct, however, we should expect more complications.
From our partner Tehran Times
Oil Wars: Russia and Saudi Arabia in the forefront
Recent developments in Italy and the stock market have things in common. Both came as an alarming surprise; while Italian authorities took stringent measures to lock down the entire nation due to Covid-19 fears, oil prices plunged remarkably in the past week. Rather shamelessly, Russia and Saudi Arabia are exploiting the international epidemic; in order to eclipse a once in a lifetime opportunity. As Saudi Arabia and Russia fought against each other to increase production, oil prices spiraled down in years. The oil giants are looking to consolidate losses from the past. Primarily, both the nations are looking to keep American oil supply arrested, amidst the pandemic uncertainty. As OPEC nations agreed to limit production in order to maintain oil prices, Russia disagreed, prompting the kingdom to counter a bizarre monopoly. The virus has kindled new age energy wars; at the epicenter, are two nations, displaying dreadful nature of international responsibility.
History is key here. Saudi Arabia is sluggishly recovering from an oil field disaster while Russia is eyeing years of forfeited trade advantage caused by western sanctions. International effort is concentrated towards containing the virus, whereas handful of interest agencies along with both nations are seeking an unlikely triumph. A true windfall has caught Russia by surprise, a rare opportunity that will not slip from Putin’s hand. On the other hand, Saudis, rather egoistically are pursuing their godsend place in the international energy market. The scuff is undoubtedly interesting, however; consequentially, it will also determine fortunes for some and famine for others. OPEC’s decision to lower production in order to maintain current oil price is not a samaritan effort; nevertheless, it would have saved capital over-indulgence that could have instead concealed humanitarian efforts to contain the pandemic. For now, management is key and stock market health can prove to be momentous. A lively market is key to ward off unprecedented economic stress.
Russia and Saudi Arabia’s naivety has led to extreme stock market resistance. The world is watching the fight closely, waiting and hoping for the standoff to deflate. It is not the stalemate that is most worrying; unusual market activity is quietly manufacturing an enormous bubble waiting to crack. Market resistance is tipping at a dangerous degree; world markets are sincerely counting on each other for support. For instance, consider how markets would plunge lower than they otherwise would, as oil prices keep decreasing uncommonly. A sinking ship is resisting, waiting for water levels that can only drown by all rationality. Hence, the analogue.It would have taken Russia and Saudi Arabia a great deal of conscience to withdraw national interests for the sake of global welfare. Just in case the virus does not cease to pare, we are in for a truly global disaster. As more nations will testify infected population, the stock market will increasingly face nervous breakdowns. Then after, it will be impossible to guess directions.
Reduced oil prices will complement some and destroy others; the relationship is so disturbing that daily economics might just have to re-invent itself in the face of unpredictability. Imagine the aviation industry exhausting oil demands, in the face of historic low prices. Russia and Saudi Arabia understand the tradeoffs, yet national interests have blindfolded competing energy giants. In the long run, Russia and Saudi Arabia would have stored enough barrels to dictate oligopoly. Alluringly, the case does not rest there. Both the nations will also be hoping for which now looks like a miraculous recovery from the pandemic; future profits will uncharacteristically depend on a healthy market. The risk has been taken despite of all uncertainties. For a change, both Putin and Bin Salman will also be praying, nevertheless.
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