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Ukraine: Economic Growth Depends on Reforms and Financing

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Ukraine’s economy grew by 3.5 percent in the first half of 2018, supported by an early agriculture harvest and strong consumption growth from higher wages, pensions, and remittances, according to the World Bank’s latest Ukraine Economic Update. However, investor confidence is being held back by delays in key reforms, Ukraine’s large financing needs, and uncertainty surrounding the 2019 elections.

“The growth outlook depends on the pace of reforms and on reaching an agreement on the IMF program,” said Satu Kahkonen, World Bank Country Director for Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine. “This is particularly true because global financing conditions have tightened significantly for emerging markets in recent months.”

An agreement with the IMF, swift implementation of recently approved reforms, and progress on the unfinished reform agenda would send a positive signal to investors. If this happens, economic growth is projected to be 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.5 percent in 2019, before rising to 4 percent in 2020 once election related uncertainties subside.

By contrast, if reforms do not progress and IMF reviews are not completed, overall growth could fall below 2 percent in 2019 as investor confidence deteriorates, macroeconomic vulnerabilities intensify, and financing difficulties force a compression in domestic demand.

Ukraine also needs financing for large public debt repayments in 2019 and 2020. In this context, approving and implementing a credible and affordable 2019 budget that meets the fiscal deficit target of 2.5 percent of GDP is critical. This will require affordable implementation of recent reforms in pensions, health, education, public administration, and housing utility subsidies.

It will also be important to avoid measures that reduce revenues, such as the proposed replacement of the corporate income tax with a capital exit tax which would result in the loss of an important revenue source in a challenging fiscal environment.

Higher oil prices fueled import growth by 15.3 percent from January to August 2018, while exports have suffered from both logistical difficulties in the Azov sea since July and from softening export commodity prices. With the current account projected to widen to 2.9 percent of GDP in 2018, it will be important to secure continued financing from development partners, attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and boost non-traditional exports.

Tapping Ukraine’s trade potential …

According to the World Bank’s Special Focus Note on international trade, Ukraine has tremendous potential to boost exports of higher-value added products, but this potential has not yet been realized.

Ukraine’s exports remain concentrated in metals and cereals, while the share of exports integrated with Global Value Chains (GVC) remains low at 5.7 percent in Ukraine, compared to 27 percent for Poland, 38 percent for Romania, 38 percent for Turkey, and 59 percent for Vietnam.

Boosting higher-value added and GVC exports is a major opportunity for Ukraine to leverage its special access to the EU market. Ukraine has demonstrated potential on this front through the exports of automotive ignition wiring sets which grew from $21 million in 2000 to $1.217 billion in 2017, one of the fastest growing export product categories in recent years.

Reforms to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are an important driver of exports and integration into GVCs. Specifically, this will require reforms to strengthen anticorruption measures and the rule of law, make progress on privatization, safeguard macroeconomic stability, and clean up the high share of non-performing loans.

Ukraine also needs to create an efficient and competitive logistics system to boost exports and accelerate its integration into the global economy. Specifically, this will require improving regulatory clarity and the management of public assets, increasing utilization of river transport, reforming the railway system, and addressing inefficiencies in the storage system.

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Development

Driving Growth Using ‘Practical Wisdom’: Japan’s Perspectives

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In response to the COVID-19 crisis, the World Economic Forum has taken an initiative to create a more sustainable and resilient world. Further to the regular dialogues held on managing the crisis and shaping a positive post-COVID world, the Regional Action Group for Japan (RAGJ), a community of leaders engaged with the World Economic Forum, published a report “Driving Growth Using ‘Practical Wisdom’: Japan’s Perspectives”

The report suggests that the country should create a well-structured, forward-thinking society based on sustainability, inclusivity and resiliency through four pillars: attitude, business culture, economy, and the global collaboration framework. The report also suggests that Japanese leaders can implement the concept by drawing on the country’s “practical wisdom,” or its long tradition of practicing stakeholder-based capitalism, sustainable business models, disaster resilience, and the championing of environmental values.

“There is an urgent need for global stakeholders to cooperate in simultaneously managing the direct consequences of the COVID-19 crisis. It is of great significance for the World Economic Forum that Japanese leaders came together to propose what it takes for the country, as well as for the international community, to improve the state of the world. Japan’s perspectives, laid out in the report, are one of the first responses to our call to present a vision of that guides us through the post-COVID future,” said Makiko Eda, Chief Representative Officer, World Economic Forum, Japan.

“The current crisis requires us to revisit the status quo of every aspect of society. At the same time, it presents us with a unique opportunity to accelerate necessary reforms to shape a better future,” said Nobuhiro Hemmi, Partner and Chief Strategist, Deloitte Japan, who supported the organization of the discussion of the RAGJ. “Capitalizing on this momentum, Japanese leaders are committed to making long-lasting impacts to society while fostering engagement with the public and communities around the world. I hope that the report serves as a catalyst in implementing ‘great resets’ that help shape the post-COVID future,” he added.

The report proposes that Japan draws on its “practical wisdom” in its effort to resetting four areas:

Attitudes: To address systemic challenges such as sustainability and climate change, leaders must abandon wishful thinking that such a task will be easy. Three approaches should help this shift: sharing a greater sense of urgency among officials, businesses, and the public; accelerating necessary reforms for a long-lasting impact on public trust; and addressing unresolved issues to usher in a new era for Japan.

Business Culture: Leaders should transform their own businesses’ behavior, moving the focus away from their own successes in favor of contributing to the common good. Three steps are proposed: growing truly purpose-driven businesses for long-term value generation; upgrading community and environmental solutions via digital leapfrogging; and promoting diversity and inclusion to revitalize the leadership.

Economy: Japanese leaders must transform the economy system, shifting the emphasis away from shareholders to stakeholders. Three measures should support the shift: redefining economic success; striking a shareholder-stakeholder balance to reframe economic focus; and shifting investor focus from short-term returns to long-term value creation.

Global collaboration framework: Japan must rebuild the bonds of global cooperation by growing out of its traditional role as a rule-follower and becoming a rule-shaper. This is made possible by three approaches: adjusting or adopting rules to create a new era of cooperation; renewing global trade systems; and serving as a great mediator for transnational cooperation.

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IEA: take urgent action to cut methane emissions from oil and gas sector

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Methane emissions from the global oil and gas industry fell by an estimated 10% in 2020 as producers slashed output in response to the historic shock of the Covid-19 crisis, the International Energy Agency said today, warning that these emissions could rebound strongly without greater action by companies, policy makers and regulators.

Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2) and makes a major contribution to global warming. According to the IEA’s 2021 update of its Methane Tracker, oil and gas operations worldwide emitted more than 70 million tonnes of methane into the atmosphere last year. This is broadly equivalent to the total energy-related CO2 emissions from the entire European Union.

The new IEA analysis indicates that a large part of the drop in methane emissions in 2020 occurred not because companies were taking more care to avoid methane leaks from their operations, but simply because they were producing less oil and gas. As such, there is clearly a risk that this downward trend will be reversed by an increase in production to fuel a rebound in global economic activity.

“The immediate task now for the oil and gas industry is to make sure that there is no resurgence in methane emissions, even as the world economy recovers, and that 2019 becomes their historical peak. There is no good reason to allow these harmful leaks to continue, and there is every reason for responsible operators to ensure that they are addressed,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director.

“Alongside ambitious efforts to decarbonise our economies, early action on methane emissions will be critical for avoiding the worst effects of climate change. There has never been a greater sense of urgency about this issue than there is today, said Dr Birol. “To help accelerate these efforts, the IEA is today releasing a ‘how-to’ guide that governments and regulators can use to bring down methane emissions from oil and gas operations.”

IEA analysis highlights that reducing methane emissions is very cost-effective for oil and gas companies. Unlike CO2, there is already a price for methane everywhere in the world – the price of natural gas. This means the costs of improving operations or making repairs to prevent leaks can often be paid for by the value of the additional gas that is brought to market.

“We believe that industry must act, visibly and quickly,” Dr Birol said. “But there is also a strong role for government policies; to incentivise early action by companies, push for transparency and improvements in performance, and support innovation in getting results.”

The new IEA report, Driving Down Methane Leaks from the Oil and Gas Industry: A Regulatory Roadmap and Toolkit, offers a step-by-step guide for anyone trying develop or to update regulation on methane. Its advice draws on analysis of how more than 50 countries, states or provinces – from the United States to Nigeria, from Iraq to China and Russia – have tackled methane emissions from a regulatory perspective.

“In this crucial year for climate action leading up to COP26 in Glasgow in November, this is the moment for governments to raise ambitions not only on CO2 but also on methane,” Dr Birol said. “One important avenue, especially for countries with large oil and gas sectors, will be to include commitments on methane in their new or updated pledges in advance of the COP meeting. This is also the moment for companies to put all their weight behind this effort.”

The case for action is not just environmental or reputational. There are increasing signs that consumers are starting to look carefully at the emissions profile of different sources of gas when making decisions on what to buy. A gas producer without a credible story on methane abatement is also one that is taking commercial risks.

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EU Politics

Commission sets out key actions for a united front to beat COVID-19

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Two days ahead of the meeting of European leaders on a coordinated response to the COVID-19 crisis, the Commission set out a number of actions needed to step up the fight against the pandemic. In a Communication adopted today, it calls on Member States to accelerate the roll-out of vaccination across the EU: by March 2021, at least 80% of people over the age of 80, and 80% of health and social care professionals in every Member State should be vaccinated. And by summer 2021, Member States should have vaccinated a minimum of 70% of the adult population.

The Commission also calls on Member States to continue to apply physical distancing, limit social contacts, fight disinformation, coordinate travel restrictions, ramp up testing, and increase contact tracing and genome sequencing to face up to the risk from new variants of the virus. As recent weeks have seen an upward trend in case numbers, more needs to be done to support healthcare systems and to address “COVID-fatigue” in the coming months, from accelerating vaccination across the board, helping our partners in the Western Balkans, the Southern and Eastern neighbourhood and in Africa.

Today’s Communication sets out key actions for Member States, the Commission, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which will help reduce risks and keep the virus under control:

Speeding up the roll-out of vaccination across the EU

By March 2021, at least 80% of people over the age of 80, and 80% of health and social care professionals in every Member State, should be vaccinated.

By summer 2021, Member States should have vaccinated 70% of the entire adult population.

The Commission, Member States and the EMA will work with companies to use the EU’s potential for increased vaccine manufacturing capacity to the fullest.

The Commission is working with Member States on vaccination certificates, in full compliance with EU data protection law, which can support the continuity of care. A common approach is to be agreed by the end of January 2021 to allow Member States’ certificates to be rapidly useable in health systems across the EU and beyond.

Testing and genome sequencing

Member States should update their testing strategies to account for new variants and expand the use of rapid antigen tests.

Member States should urgently increase genome sequencing to at least 5% and preferably 10% of positive test results. At present, many Member States are testing under 1% of samples, which is not enough to identify the progression of the variants or detect any new ones.

Preserving the Single Market and free movement while stepping up mitigation measures

Measures should be applied to further reduce the risk of transmission linked to the means of travel, such as hygiene and distancing measures in vehicles and terminuses.

All non-essential travel should be strongly discouraged until the epidemiological situation has considerably improved.

Proportionate travel restrictions, including testing of travellers, should be maintained for those travelling from areas with a higher incidence of variants of concern.

Ensuring European leadership and international solidarity

To ensure early access to vaccines, the Commission is to set up a Team Europe mechanism to structure the provision of vaccines shared by Member States with partner countries. This should allow for sharing with partner countries access to some of the 2.3 billion doses secured through the EU’s Vaccines Strategy, paying special attention to the Western Balkans, our Eastern and Southern neighbourhood and Africa.

The European Commission and Member States should continue supporting COVAX, including through early access to vaccines. Team Europe has already mobilised €853 million in support of COVAX, making the EU one of COVAX’s biggest donors.

Members of the College said:

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “Vaccination is essential to get out of this crisis. We have already secured enough vaccines for the entire population of the European Union. Now we need to accelerate the delivery and speed up vaccination. Our aim is to have 70% of our adult population vaccinated by summer. That could be a turning point in our fight against this virus. However, we will only end this pandemic when everyone in the world has access to vaccines. We will step up our efforts to help secure vaccines for our neighbours and partners worldwide.”

Vice-President Margaritis Schinas, responsible for Promoting our European Way of Life, said: “The emergence of new variants of the virus and substantial rises in cases leave us no room for complacency. Now more than ever must come a renewed determination for Europe to act together with unity, coordination and vigilance. Our proposals today aim to protect more lives and livelihoods later and relieve the burden on already stretched health care systems and workers. This is how the EU will come out of the crisis. The end of the pandemic is in sight though not yet in reach.”

Stella Kyriakides, Commissioner for Health and Food Safety, said: “Working together with unity, solidary and determination, we can soon start to see the beginning of the end of the pandemic. Now in particular, we need swift and coordinated action against the new variants of the virus. Vaccinations will still take time until they reach all Europeans and until then we must take immediate, coordinated and proactive steps together. Vaccinations must accelerate across the EU and testing and sequencing must be increased – this is show we can ensure that we leave this crisis behind us as soon as possible.”

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