The situation in Gaza today appears to indicate that a war with Israel is likely. Israeli airspace has been violated time and again in the last several months with drones, rockets and balloons that contain explosives. The government in Tel Aviv is currently working on a way to de-escalate the situation in Gaza. In addition, Israel has sought help from an unusual regional source: Egypt.
Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al- Sisi met secretly earlier last month with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. That was after the Egyptian head of intelligence, Abbas Kamal, met with the Israeli National Security Advisor and possibly with Netanyahu himself. Their discussions continue to focus on finding a solution that could end the crisis in Gaza, which borders both Egypt and Israel.
The Israeli and the Egyptian leaders have had a strong relationship since they signed a peace treaty in 1979 after the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Their relationship is based on both trust and mutual strategic interest in the region. For instance, both heads of governments meet publicly and are photographed together, which is a distinct shift from the Mubarak regime’s policy of keeping Israel at arm’s length. Egypt and Israel have co-operated in fighting terrorist groups in the region, including Hamas militants and the Islamic State in Sinai, and to control the smuggling of arms from the Sinai Peninsula into the Gaza strip, which is controlled by Hamas. Moreover, both nations share a common interest in several regional issues, such as the presence of Islamic State in the Sinai and the perceived Iranian threats to the region.
Finding a solution to the Gaza strip issue is more complicated than most other mutual challenges for Egypt and Israel. They would find it difficult to find even a short-term arrangement to reduce the conflict in Gaza. This is predicated to a large extent on Hamas’ doctrine of not abandoning the idea of confrontation with Israel. Added to that is the influence and roles of multiple militant groups in the area that neither Israel nor Egypt are able to ignore, leave alone control.
Egypt would prefer that Mahmoud Abbas control the Gaza strip, similar to the West Bank. Abbas, as Fatah’s leader, is willing to provide financial support to Hamas to overcome their internal obstacles, but not to strengthen their capability over Fatah, however. That reasoning forms the basis of Abbas’ rejection of any Hamas- Israeli arrangement in the last weeks. Meanwhile Qatar and Turkey seek to strengthen Hamas as well as the Muslim Brotherhood inside Egypt, which is rejected by both Egypt and Israel.
The new U.S peace plan that President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, engineered could help to find a solution for Gaza, but that plan is not yet confirmed. Therefore, Egypt and Israel cannot bank on the U.S. While the violence in Gaza continues and solutions are not available, Israel keeps responding to the activities on its borders by destroying Hamas infrastructure and their logistical resources. At the same time, the Egyptians continue to hold talks between different Palestinian actors aimed at pushing for a short-term arrangement that stops the violence in Gaza. On the other hand, formulating a cease fire is not enough for Israel, since that could allow Hamas to increase military capabilities, especially their rocket systems that threaten Israel.
Egypt plays a critical role in preventing a brutal war in the region that will be, according to Israel, very painful for both Hamas and Israel. It appears, therefore, that a very different long-term agreement, one in which Hamas no longer controls the Gaza strip, is warranted. This is especially the case since Egypt and Israel are co-operate in countering terrorist groups and share a common antipathy to the Turkish-Qatari involvement in the region.
