In 2005, Ex COAS and then President of Pakistan announced various mega projects in the country including Gwadar City, Gwadar deep sea port, Makran Costal Highway, Quetta Water Supply, Tangi Wali Dam and Lwari Tunnel. He was also about to announce the inauguration of Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) when RAW and NDS maneuvered through their proxies in Pakistan. Primarily, Altaf Hussain(MQM) who through a phone call threatened President of Pakistan of dire consequences if Pakistan dam (Kalabagh) was announced. As a matter of fact India/RAW became terrified by construction of Pakistan Damsas on one hand Pakistan has became Atomic Power, Mineral rich country and on the other hand the Water Management by construction of dams would have generated Economic Activity in the county. Hence a conspiracy was hatched by RAW/NDS to create disenchantment / friction between the provinces through their Pakistan based proxies in a bid to create hindrance/ impediments by supporting Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) Baluchistan Liberation Front (BLF) and other terrorist organizations.
Due to their conspiracy, Water scarcity is currently the biggest issue of Pakistan. At present, the country is storing 10% of its annual water flow that is comparatively very low to the global water storage capacity rate of 40%. Therefore, building new water storage reservoirs is the dire need of the hour, otherwise country could approach absolute water scarcity by 2025.
At present, Pakistan can store 30 days of water that is very low compared India that can store water of 170 days, that’s why Pakistan is being ranked among fifteen countries facing very high water stress. According to Indus River System Authority (IRSA), Pakistan is dumping freshwater having an economic value of $21 billion into sea annually due to low storage capacity. There is a marked decrease in per capita water availability of Pakistan due to alarming population increase and reduction in water storage capability of its reservoirs by sedimentation. The gap between water availability and demand was only 4% in 2011 and it is predicted to increase to 31% by 2025, which needs coordinated planning and implementation by all provincial and federal government authorities. There is an urgent need of proper water management to store maximum untapped water by constructing new water storage reservoirs.
Proposed Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) water storage with gross storage of 7.9 Million acre-feet(MAF) and live storage of 6.1 MAF. It would be 260 Ft high above the river Indus bed. It would cost US$ 7.923 Billion. Its installed capacity will be 3600 MW. Dam Siteiseasilyaccessibleandwellconnectedfortransportationofconstruction material through road and Rail Link. Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) is expected to significantly reduce electricity shortage and will enhance water availability for agriculture. This project will improve agricultural and livestock productivity which will livelihood conditions and reduce poverty.
Pakistan will earn economic benefits of billions of dollars from Pakistan Dam annually due to increasing cultivable area, production of cheap hydel electricity and saving spending on costly energy being produced by diesel/gas, this gas will now be available for industries and household use, and avoiding annual flood losses by River Indus. Politicization of this project has put it in cold storage for three decades. Pakistan has not built major water storage dam after 1974 that has stressed its already declining water resources. Furthermore India is building dams on River Jhelum and Chenab violating Indus Water treaty and Afghanistan is already building a dam on River Kabul which is tributary of River Indus and joins it upstream of Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) site. All these factors are complexing the dilemma of water scarcity of Pakistan.
Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) is technically feasible and financially viable project. Its feasibility was approved long time ago addressing concerns of all provinces. Lack of consensus among different provinces of Pakistan is a major hurdle in this project execution. KPK opposed the project by saying that Nowshera city will be submerged after dam construction. Tarbela dam that was constructed 42 years ago and is 600 ft above the Peshawar valley has not caused water logging problem in last four decades, then how it is possible that Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) which will be constructed 25 ft below Nowshera city, could cause water logging. No engineering knowledge is needed to understand that water logging only occurs in areas present below the water line and not above it. According to experts, the even top water level of Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) would remain lower to Nowshera. In addition, Kalabagh consultants rejected construction of irrigation canals along this dam for technical reasons. So this dam motive is not to divert water for Punjab, but in real Chashma Right Bank Lift Canal (CRBC) Project is now functional through which KP is taking its water share from Indus River. So objections have no factual basis. About 8 lakh acres of DI khan arable land that currently laying at highest from Indus River would be under economical cultivation due to the construction of this dam. So this project increases agricultural productivity of KPK too.
Sindh province object Kalabaghdam project that Sailaba (riverine) land will not get water after this dam construction that will not only decrease agricultural productivity but also dry Sindh province. In reality,the issue of riverine lands was taken into consideration by Wapda during this dam feasibility study and it was fully aware of the water needs of farmers of this area. That’s why, water requirements of this tract were calculated in consultation with Sindh Government. Kalabagh consultants conducted in-depth studies about water issues of riverine land that ended in the submission of concrete findings in 1988 that was also sent to Sindh Government. Their conclusion shows that riverine tract water requirements could easily be full filed even with the flood of 300,000 cusecs. So it depicted that this objection has no technical background and it is fiction. Furthermore this objection seems baseless because if Basha dam on River Indus would not cause flow reduction than how it is possible that Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) (that is only Storage dam) will reduce water flow downward. Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) is expected to provide an additional 40 lac acre-feet of water to Sindh, so its construction will help to uplift economic conditions of Sindh farmers.
In reality British government has given this right to Sindh government in 1929 and it is using it continuously but this propaganda is being easily accepted by simple farmers from Sindh due to fear of Water reduction and they reject water flow data provided from Upstream Punjab monitoring points.
Evidently, Pakistan Dam (Kalabagh) is technically viable and concerns of Sindh and KPK has already been addressed in its feasibility study so it is necessary to build it as soon as possible. It is the multi-purpose dam that will help to solve issues of water crisis/scarcity, power load shedding and annual flood damages. But it requires strong political will and pushes from the whole nation. Agriculture sector which is the backbone of Pakistan economy and it contributing about 20% of the country GDP and providing employment to 42% labour force will boost from Pakistan dam project. There is a need to formulate a national water strategy for water resource development and management, increase the storage capacity of existing water storage reservoirs and construct viable storage dams like Kalabagh. These steps will not only reduce water scarce conditions in the country but will also secure a safe and brighter future of our next generations. Hence the Pakistan dam (Kalabagh) be announced forth-with so that RAW and its proxies are defeated once for all.
Indonesian Coal Roadmap: Optimizing Utilization amid Global Tendency to Phasing Out
Authors: Razin Abdullah and Luky Yusgiantoro*
Indonesia is potentially losing state revenue of around USD 1.64-2.5 billion per year from the coal tax and non-tax revenues. Although currently Indonesia has abundant coal resources, especially thermal coal, the coal market is gradually shrinking. This shrinking market will negatively impact Indonesia’s economy. The revenue can be used for developing the country, such as for the provision of public infrastructures, improving public education and health services and many more.
One of the main causes of the shrinking coal market is the global tendency to shift to renewable energy (RE). Therefore, a roadmap is urgently needed by Indonesia as a guideline for optimizing the coal management so that it can be continuously utilized and not become neglected natural resources. The Indonesian Coal Roadmap should also offer detailed guidance on utilizing coal for the short-term, medium-term and long-term.
Why is the roadmap needed?
Indonesia’s total coal reserves is around 37.6 billion tons. If there are no additional reserves and the assumed production rate is 600 million tons/year, then coal production can continue for another 62 years. Even though Indonesia’s coal production was enormous, most of it was for export. In 2019, the export reached 454.5 million tons or almost 74% of the total production. Therefore, it shows a strong dependency of the Indonesian coal market on exports, with China and India as the main destinations. The strong dependency and the global trend towards clean energy made the threat of Indonesian coal abandonment increasingly real.
China, one of Indonesia’s main coal export destinations, has massive coal reserves and was the world’s largest coal producer. In addition, China also has the ambition to become a carbon-free country by 2060, following the European Union countries, which are targeting to achieve it in 2050. It means China and European Union countries would not produce more carbon dioxide than they captured by 2060 and 2050, respectively. Furthermore, India and China have the biggest and second-biggest solar park in the world. India leads with the 2.245GW Bhadla solar park, while China’s Qinghai solar park has a capacity of 2.2GW. Those two solar parks are almost four times larger than the U.S.’ biggest solar farm with a capacity of 579 MW. The above factors raise concerns that China and India, as the main export destinations for Indonesian coal, will reduce their coal imports in the next few years.
The indications of a global trend towards RE can be seen from the energy consumption trend in the U.S. In 2019, U.S. RE consumption exceeded coal for the first time in over 130 years. During 2008-2019, there has been a significant decrease in U.S coal consumption, down by around 49%. Therefore, without proper coal management planning and demand from abroad continues to decline, Indonesia will lose a large amount of state revenue. The value of the remaining coal resources will also drop drastically.
Besides the global market, the domestic use of coal is mostly intended for electricity generation. With the aggressive development of RE power plant technology, the generation prices are getting cheaper. Sooner or later, the RE power plant will replace the conventional coal power plant. Therefore, it is necessary to emphasize efforts to diversify coal products by promoting the downstream coal industries in the future Indonesian Coal Roadmap.
What should be included: the short-term plan
In designing the Indonesian Coal Roadmap, a special attention should be paid to planning the diversification of export destinations and the diversification of coal derivative products. In the short term, it is necessary to study the potential of other countries for the Indonesian coal market so that Indonesia is not only dependent on China and India. As for the medium and long term, it is necessary to plan the downstream coal industry development and map the future market potential.
For the short-term plan, the Asian market is still attractive for Indonesian coal. China and India are expected to continue to use a massive amount of coal. Vietnam is also another promising prospective destination. Vietnam is projected to increase its use of coal amidst the growing industrial sector. In this plan, the Indonesian government plays an essential role in building political relations with these countries so that Indonesian coal can be prioritized.
What should be included: the medium and long-term plans
For the medium and long-term plans, it is necessary to integrate the coal supply chain, the mining site and potential demand location for coal. Therefore, the coal logistics chain becomes more optimal and efficient, according to the mining site location, type of coal, and transportation mode to the end-user. Mapping is needed both for conventional coal utilization and downstream activities.
Particularly for the downstream activities, the roadmap needs to include a map of the low-rank coal (LRC) potentials in Indonesia, which can be used for coal gasification and liquefaction. Coal gasification can produce methanol, dimethyl ether (a substitute for LPG) and, indirectly, produce synthetic oil. Meanwhile, the main product of coal liquefaction is synthetic oil, which can substitute conventional oil fuels. By promoting the downstream coal activities, the government can increase coal’s added value, get a multiplier effect, and reduce petroleum products imports.
The Indonesian Coal Roadmap also needs to consider related existing and planned regulations so that it does not cause conflicts in the future. In designing the roadmap, the government needs to involve relevant stakeholders, such as business entities, local governments and related associations.
The roadmap is expected not only to regulate coal business aspects but also to consider environmental aspects. The abandoned mine lands can be used for installing a solar farm, providing clean energy for the country. Meanwhile, the coal power plant is encouraged to use clean coal technology (CCT). CCT includes carbon capture storage (CCS), ultra-supercritical, and advanced ultra-supercritical technologies, reducing emissions from the coal power plant.
*Luky Yusgiantoro, Ph.D. A governing board member of The Purnomo Yusgiantoro Center (PYC).
Engaging the ‘Climate’ Generation in Global Energy Transition
Renewable energy is at the heart of global efforts to secure a sustainable future. Partnering with young people to amplify calls for the global energy transition is an essential part of this endeavour, as they represent a major driver of development, social change, economic growth, innovation and environmental protection. In recent years, young people have become increasingly involved in shaping the sustainable development discourse, and have a key role to play in propelling climate change mitigation efforts within their respective communities.
Therefore, how might we best engage this new generation of climate champions to accentuate their role in the ongoing energy transition? In short, engagement begins with information and awareness. Young people must be exposed to the growing body of knowledge and perspectives on renewable energy technologies and be encouraged to engage in peer-to-peer exchanges on the subject via new platforms.
To this end, IRENA convened the first IRENA Youth Forum in Abu Dhabi in January 2020, bringing together young people from more than 35 countries to discuss their role in accelerating the global energy transformation. The Forum allowed participants to take part in a truly global conversation, exchanging views with each other as well as with renewable energy experts and representatives from governments around the world, the private sector and the international community.
Similarly, the IRENA Youth Talk webinar, organised in collaboration with the SDG 7 Youth Constituency of the UN Major Group for Children and Youth, presented the views of youth leaders, to identify how young people can further the promotion of renewables through entrepreneurship that accelerates the energy transition.
For example, Joachim Tamaro’s experience in Kenya was shared in the Youth Talk, illustrating how effective young entrepreneurs can be as agents of change in their communities. He is currently working on the East Africa Geo-Aquacultural Development Project – a venture that envisages the use of solar energy to power refrigeration in rural areas that rely on fishing for their livelihoods. The project will also use geothermal-based steam for hatchery, production, processing, storage, preparation and cooking processes.
It is time for governments, international organisations and other relevant stakeholders to engage with young people like Joachim and integrate their contributions into the broader plan to accelerate the energy transition, address climate change and achieve the UN Sustainable Development Agenda.
Business incubators, entrepreneurship accelerators and innovation programmes can empower young people to take their initiatives further. They can give young innovators and entrepreneurs opportunities to showcase and implement their ideas and contribute to their communities’ economic and sustainable development. At the same time, they also allow them to benefit from technical training, mentorship and financing opportunities.
Governments must also engage young people by reflecting their views and perspectives when developing policies that aim to secure a sustainable energy future, not least because it is the youth of today who will be the leaders of tomorrow.
The Urgency of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for Indonesia’s Energy Security
Authors:Akhmad Hanan and Dr. Luky Yusgiantoro*
Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, which has great potential for natural disasters. These disasters have caused damage to energy infrastructure and casualties. Natural disasters usually cut the energy supply chain in an area, causing a shortage of fuel supply and power outages.
Besides natural disasters, energy crisis events occur mainly due to the disruption of energy supplies. This is because of the disconnection of energy facilities and infrastructure by natural disasters, criminal and terrorist acts, escalation in regional politics, rising oil prices, and others. With strategic national energy reserves, particularly strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), Indonesia can survive the energy crisis if it has.
Until now, Indonesia does not have an SPR. Meanwhile, fuel stocks owned by business entities such as PT Pertamina (Persero) are only categorized as operational reserves. The existing fuel stock can only guarantee 20 days of continuity. Whereas in theory, a country has secured energy security if it has a guaranteed energy supply with affordable energy prices, easy access for the people, and environmentally friendly. With current conditions, Indonesia still does not have guaranteed energy security.
Indonesian Law mandates that to ensure national energy security, the government is obliged to provide national energy reserves. This reserve can be used at any time for conditions of crisis and national energy emergencies. It has been 13 years since the energy law was issued, Indonesia does not yet have an SPR.
Lessons from other countries
Many countries in the world have SPR, and its function is to store crude oil and or fuel oil. SPR is built by many developed countries, especially countries that are members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA was formed due to the disruption of oil supply in the 1970s. To avoid the same thing happening again, the IEA has made a strategic decision by obliging member countries to keep in the SPR for 90 days.
As one of the member countries, the US has the largest SPR in the world. Its storage capacity reaches a maximum of 714 million barrels (estimated to equal 115 days of imports) to mitigate the impact of disruption in the supply of petroleum products and implement US obligations under the international energy program. The US’ SPR is under the control of the US Department of Energy and is stored in large underground salt caves at four locations along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.
Besides the US, Japan also has the SPR. Japan’s SPR capacity is 527 million barrels (estimated to equal 141 days of imports). SPR Japan priority is used for disaster conditions. For example, in 2011, when the nuclear reactor leak occurred at the Fukushima nuclear power plant due to the Tsunami, Japan must find an energy alternative. Consequently, Japan must replace them with fossil fuel power plants, mainly gas and oil stored in SPR.
China, Thailand, and India also have their own SPR. China has an SPR capacity of 400-900 million barrels, Thailand 27.6 million barrels, and India 37.4 million barrels. Singapore does not have an SPR. However, Singapore has operational reserve in the form of fuel stock for up to 90 days which is longer than Indonesia.
Indonesia really needs SPR
The biggest obstacles of developing SPR in Indonesia are budget availability, location selection, and the absence of any derivative regulations from the law. Under the law, no agency has been appointed and responsible for building and managing SPR. Also, government technical regulations regarding the existence and management of SPR in Indonesia is important.
The required SPR capacity in Indonesia can be estimated by calculating the daily consumption from the previous year. For 2019, the national average daily consumption of fuel is 2.6 million kiloliters per day. With the estimation of 90 days of imports, Indonesia’s SPR capacity must at least be more than 100 million barrels to be used in emergencies situations.
For selecting SPR locations, priority can be given to areas that have safe geological structures. East Kalimantan is suitable to be studied as an SPR placement area. It is also geologically safe from disasters and is also located in the middle of Indonesia. East Kalimantan has the Balikpapan oil refinery with the capacity of 260,000 BPD for SPR stock. For SPR funding solution, can use the state budget with a long-term program and designation as a national strategic project.
Another short-term solution for SPR is to use or lease existing oil tankers around the world that are not being used. Should the development of SPR be approved by the government, then the international shipping companies may be able to contribute to its development.
China currently dominates oil tanker shipping in the world, Indonesia can work with China to lease and become Indonesia’s SPR. Actually, this is a good opportunity at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic because oil prices are falling. It would be great if Indonesia could charter some oil tankers and buy fuel to use as SPR. This solution was very interesting while the government prepared long-term planning for the SPR facility. In this way, Indonesia’s energy security will be more secure.
*Dr. Luky Yusgiantoro, governing board member of The Purnomo Yusgiantoro Center (PYC).
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