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An Alarming Water Crisis: Will Pakistan Have No Water in 2025?

Michael Samuel

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God has bestowed Pakistan with many blessings such as all seasons, glaciers, hill stations, mountains, seas, oceans and many more then what is the reason that Pakistan is briskly running out of water and water shortage has become a problem of our lives?

There are plenty of water resources for Pakistan such as glaciers, monsoon rainfall, subsoil water, lakes (Keenjhar, Saiful Maluk, Manchar, etc.), Arabian Sea is also connected to the shore of Karachi, etc. But still, Pakistan is becoming a water-stressed country. Why? Pakistan is a country, where glaciers melt from the very top and all water from the melted glaciers directly fall into the seas and get wasted. Water is something which is used for daily human consumption also in livestock, power generation, agriculture, water sports, etc. But unfortunately, the country is unable to save water and now an alarming red light has been turned on for Pakistan that it will face a water crisis in 2025.

Pakistan’s history in water, (IWT)

Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is a water dispensing treaty between Pakistan and India. Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed by the first Prime Minister of India Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and President of Pakistan General Ayub Khan in Karachi on September 19, 1960. According to the terms and conditions of this agreement, out of 6 rivers right of three rivers the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej with the mean flow of 33 million-acre-feet (MAF) were given to India and right of three rivers the Indus river also known as Sindh River, the Chenab and the Jhelum river with the mean flow of 80 million-acre-feet (MAF) were given to Pakistan.

Though Pakistan has three major rivers and other water sources to fulfill its needs but last year on September 15, 2017, it was alerted by some experts that Pakistan could face mass drought by 2025 as water level nears “absolute scarcity.” The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) made a forecast which claimed that country touched the “water stress line” in 1990 before crossing the “water scarcity line” in 2005.  According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the water of the Indus River is the best drinking water but the country is destroying it.

Main failures behind this

There might be bunch of failures behind this problem but some of the major failures behind this chaos are that, there are no new dams and reservoirs in Pakistan since the 1960’s to save this surplus water due to which all water gets wasted, an eminent increase in population is becoming a great threat in water depletion, climate change is another factor, water consumption habits, there are no proper water storage facilities and has poor water management, authorities lack the political will to tackle the problem, massive corruption in water sector to profit themselves, always more concerned about blaming India for the breach of an agreement of IWT (1960) that India has stopped water instead focusing on their own weakness.

If we see neighbor countries, for example by comparing Pakistan with India, India has constructed 3200 dams and reservoirs to save water for future needs whereas in Pakistan we have only 150 dams and reservoirs. The two major dams in Pakistan, Mangla Dam and Tarbela Dam which are the only sources for the country for irrigation, flood control and power generation were constructed during the regime of General Ayub Khan after that even a single dam or reservoir has not been constructed. Pakistan’s largest canal system known as Upper Bari Doab Canal (UBDC) which supports the irrigational system till date was also dug up during General Ayub Khan’s regime. There is a myth that only Tarbela dam alone is enough to fulfill the needs and energy of Pakistan which we need to understand is totally wrong. If Tarbela Dam alone is enough for everything, then energy shortage problem and destruction by 2010 flood would never have happened.

By connecting it to the flood of late July 2010, which resulted from heavy monsoon rainfall due to which about 20 million people were affected badly with a death toll of close to 2000. Pakistan had to face an estimated loss of $43 billion worth of property due to the flood and agriculture sector was also heavily and badly affected and by putting other things aside only cotton bales of worth $2 million were destroyed. Pakistan’s Kharif crops have already declined 42%. Country’s per capita water availability has already reduced from 5000 cubic meters per year to around 1000 cubic meters per year. If we had made new dams or reservoirs, flood water would have diverted towards them and that water could be used in power generation but as mentioned before no dams have been constructed since 1960’s till date and due to the poor strategy of government institutions, the country had to go through a huge loss. At that time even two major dams of the country were not enough to tackle that disaster.

Cape Town, capital of South Africa faced a drought in 2015 resulting in a severe water shortage in the region mostly affecting commercial agriculture. In early 2018, dams were predicted to decline even more at critically low level due to which government then started a campaign and announced plans for “Day Zero.” A day when there will be no water left even a single drop. The city has reduced its daily water usage by complying on to this plan which helped in increasing the level of six major dams up to 65%. Though it was announced that “Day Zero” was unlikely for 2019, but still water restrictions will remain in place until dam levels reach 85%. Just because Cape town is a civilized city that’s why it became an important headline to the whole world. But Karachi is suffering from this problem for 6 to 7 years but unluckily we haven’t heard a single news of it except news by Pakistan’s own news channels. First of all, masses of Karachi do not get any water and we are not talking about clean water or dirty water right now but somehow if they are able to find water they do not know whether it is safe or unsafe for their health. On April 26, 1990, there came a news that Cape town city will run out of the water but government at that time did not carry out emergency measures to curb this problem and now they are struggling to overcome this problem. Right now, Pakistan is also passing through the same situation due to the poor strategy of government institutions, poor distribution of water, disorganized policies and ranks 3rd among countries who are facing water shortage whereas ranks 6 in the list of countries by population and has been ranked at 4th in water consumption but dependent on single source of water that is Indus River Basin in India. According to UNICEF’s report, clean drinking water is not available to 50% of schools and school going children. If the country does not use water carefully, not only will the availability of agricultural products be affected but the country will also be deprived of drinking water.

Measures to curb this problem

The first and foremost thing is that people of the country should not start blame game on government that, this is all due to their dereliction but to start conserving water as much as they can on their own because if one knows about his rights at the same time he must be aware of his obligations also. Stop wasting water extravagantly. Water desalination plants must be installed. Revamp drainage system and recycle wasted water to make it able for reuse. The government of Pakistan must have to make proper and effective policies on an emergency basis and a plan for efficient water distribution and water management for the whole country. Must construct small dams like Iran do instead of big dams which takes time for completion. If this situation persists, it is confirmed that no one can save Pakistan and the country will be doomed for sure. People need to understand that their personal disputes on Kalabagh dam will lead the country to devastation and this problem in the future will become inevitable. So, it is important that they should put their personal interests aside and start working mutually in the construction of the Kalabagh dam. Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP), Mian Saqib Nisar’s initiative for Diamer Bhasha Dam and Mohmand Dam to curb water crisis is of great importance at this time. Both Kalabagh Dam and Diamer Bhasha Dam have the ability to produce 8000MV of energy this means 4000MV by Kalabagh Dam and 4000MV by Diamer Bhasha Dam. If both dams are constructed, then the energy shortage issue prevailing in the country will also be solved along with water shortage. This project should be the main priority for the new government in order to minimize water crisis.

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South Asia

Questioning the Novelty of India’s New Normal

Haris Bilal Malik

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In recent years Indian notions of Pre-emption and so-called surgical strikes have been referred to as the ‘new normal’ by many in India. These have contributed to further affecting the security, stability and strategic equilibrium in the South Asian region. This is evident in how the top-brass within the Indian military has repeatedly asserted that India reserves the right to punish Pakistan with such notions of preemptive strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) under its limited war doctrines, which themselves belie a desire to wage a low-intensity conflict across the border. At the doctrinal level, India has been planning for this for quite some time as evident from its 2004 Cold Start Doctrine (CSD)as well as its more recently released doctrines such as the 2017 Joint Doctrine of the Indian Armed Forces (JDIAF) and the 2018 Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD). These doctrines are all based upon proactive strategies and indirect threats of preemptive strikes against Pakistan. Based on the current patterns of Indian aggression these ideas hold immense significance when considering the latest rounds of tensions over the disputed territory of Kashmir as witnessed in the short-lived military engagement between the two countries in February 2019

Inspired by such notions and in typical fashion, the new Army Chief of India Gen. Manoj Mukund Naravane wasted little time in blaming Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism in India. The same day he took charge of his new appointment he claimed that India reserves the right to respond in the same way it had previously done through its so-called ‘surgical strikes.’ Moreover, he openly asserted to physically taking control of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) if his government ordered him to do so.

However, such assertions from the Indian political and military leadership are simply repetitions of the same statements that have been made by Prime Minister Modi, Mr. Rajnath Singh, and former Army Chief Gen. (R) Bipin Rawat in the recent past. Representing the same aggressive and jingoistic posturing, there is not much novelty in these statements. In fact, even in this so-called ‘new normal’ which these leaders have repeatedly described over the last few years, there is nothing new at all.

Even the oft-quoted notion of a preemptive ‘splendid first strike‘ is not new for Pakistan as it had already formed a key part of the discourse surrounding the Indian and international strategic community since the years 2016-2017. According to this, if in India’s assessment, Pakistan was found to be deploying nuclear weapons, as a contingency, India would likely resort to such a splendid first strike which it has always hinted as being a nuclear strike. As such all this does is prove Pakistan’s pre-existing doubts over India’s long-debated ‘No First Use’ (NFU) Policy. Yet, what’s worth noting here is that this overt shift towards declaring a more offensive doctrinal posture from India represents a more focused attempt at undermining the deterrent value of Pakistan’s own nuclear posture, thus ultimately destabilizing the South Asian region.

Instead, the only thing new to come out from all these assertions from Indian leaders is the prevailing fascist mindset within India that is being fueled by a false sense of racial superiority and hatred against Muslims. This was clearly stated by Prime Minister Imran Khan in his tweet when he attributed the cause of such provocations to the RSS’s extremist ideology. Hence, Pakistan perceives the recent statements from India’s top military brass as also being wholly politically inspired and as a routine attempt to divert attention away from the rampant domestic socio-economic issues currently plaguing India. The fact remains that Pakistan’s response to this Indian self-proclaimed ‘new normal’ which was on full display during the Balakot crisis itself set a clear example of its full spectrum deterrence. Contrary to the notion that a conventional asymmetry of sorts exists between the two countries, Pakistan had responded conventionally and more befittingly while holding its own toe to toe. In other words, Pakistan proved that it can also restore deterrence via conventional means despite the quantitative edge of India’s conventional forces and military hardware.

It is also worth noting that while India is spending billions of dollars on its military modernization program both in terms of its conventional and unconventional acquisitions; allocating billions for defence spending does not necessarily guarantee military supremacy. Especially if the adversary is determined to thwart any such attempts right from the outset. India’s actual capabilities still differentiate widely from what its political and military leadership inspires and projects itself to be. In fact, there is a huge gap between the Indian leadership’s expectations and what its military can actually deliver. As apparent not only in the absurdity of Gen. Naravane’s statement but also in Prime Minister Modi’s and others, the credibility of such threats already remains highly questionable.

Hence at the present, it seems that India is more keen on simply projecting military supremacy vis-à-vis Pakistan as opposed to actually attaining it, as reflected in the statements of its political and military top brass. Its favored notions of preemption at the doctrinal and strategic levels are evidence of such aspirations. As such the increasingly provocative posturing against Pakistan in the form of this so-called ‘new normal’ seems to represent simply a jingoistic approach to manipulate Indian public sentiment in the ruling government’s favor. However, the fact remains that Pakistan has already nullified such notions of preemption in the recent past and has proved it time and again. As such India’s aggressive posturing seems to be collapsing on itself with its self-proclaimed ‘new normal’ unlikely to pose any serious challenges to Pakistan’s strategic posture at least for the time being.

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South Asia

From Scapegoat Back to Key Ally: Pakistan and the Perils of US Maximalism

M Waqas Jan

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In the two years since President Trump accused Pakistan of giving nothing but deceit and lies, relations between both countries seem to have undergone a dramatic turnaround. This is evident not only in the official narrative being put forth by both countries with respect to one another, but also in how this growing sense of cordiality has culminated into a series of high-level visits and meetings between key representatives. For instance, the icy indifference with which US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was greeted with in Islamabad back in September 2018 now stands in stark contrast to the frank more amicable meetings that have been held between Prime Minister Khan and President Trump thrice since then. Not to mention the back to back visits from Alice Wells, the current US government’s focal representative for South Asia, that have further accompanied a steady yet gradual thawing of tensions.

Signs of this turnaround are further evident in how last month’s resumption of military education and training programs for Pakistani Officers marks one of the first steps towards renewed strategic cooperation. This represents an important milestone since President Trump had announced the cancellation of all forms of US military aid to Pakistan in early 2018. Similarly, acknowledgments of the progress made as per the requirements of the FATF review, as well as the ‘concern’ expressed over India’s recent actions in Kashmir are all signs aimed at placating some of Pakistan’s most pressing interests. Thus, hinting at what more cordial relations with the US could look like for Pakistan, while just stopping short of making any concrete commitments.

Yet, to say that Pak-US ties have begun to ‘normalize’ or ‘revert’ towards a mutually beneficial status quo would be ignoring the age-old complexity that has characterized relations between both countries. Especially for a relationship that has been long described as blowing hot and cold, on and off, as a rollercoaster ride, or simply a love-hate one. History has borne witness to the fact that US foreign policy towards Pakistan has more than often been based on a ruthless pragmatism and maximalism. This all or nothing approach has brought immense amounts of aid and funds for Pakistan which have been always cut off just as abruptly as they were initiated. Often without any long-term assessment or appreciation of what such actions are likely to lead to beyond the US’s more immediate goals.

None of this has been more evident than in US expectations from Pakistan regarding Afghanistan and the Taliban. It’s no secret that the very inception of the Taliban came from US funds and training during the waning stages of the Cold War for which Pakistan played the role of an indispensable intermediary. Yet following the 9/11 attacks, US policy towards the Taliban changed overnight when the US in lumping the Taliban together with Al-Qaeda brought down its military might on the entire Afghan State. What’s more it forced Pakistan to join its War on Terror almost at gunpoint. The infamous statement attributed to then US deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage where he allegedly threated ‘to bomb Pakistan back to the stone age’ stands as a stark reminder of how even labeling this relationship as ‘complex’ is simply an understatement.

This aspect is further reinforced in the damning revelations of the Afghanistan Papers that were released just last month. Representing a cache of candid interviews of key officials responsible for formulating and implementing the US’s Afghanistan policy, these interviews have been used to piece together crucial mistakes at the strategic and policy levels made by successive US governments over the last two decades.  One of these mistakes has been highlighted as ‘trusting Pakistan as a friend’ where Pakistan has been repeatedly accused of providing sanctuary and support to certain militant groups. Hence, accusations of Pakistan playing a double game, as well as the confusing distinctions between good and bad Taliban all contributed to a narrative that Pakistan was doing more to upend US progress than support it. This had caused much of the resentment and mutual distrust specifically during the Obama years which starting from calls to ‘do more’ resulted in the US unilaterally and covertly taking out Osama Bin Laden deep inside Pakistani territory. As ties worsened, the advent of the Trump presidency brought with them an overt sense of finality in the form of his new year tweet that was referred to in the beginning of this article.

Yet, even now as both countries come full circle with the US asking for help in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, one fears that the US may still not have learnt anything from its adventurist debacles. As the Afghanistan Papers themselves testify, Pakistani officials have remained quite  candid in their desire to hedge their bets against the US by maintaining limited ties with the Taliban. This was made clear to Ambassador Ryan Crocker who had served as the US ambassador in Islamabad from 2004-2007. In one of his interviews in the Afghanistan Papers, the former ambassador directly quotes a conversation he had with Gen Ashfaq Kayani who was then the DG ISI.As Mr. Crocker himself recounts, the general had quite explicitly made clear his reservations against an abrupt US withdrawal that would force Pakistan to once again pick up the pieces while having made the Taliban a mortal enemy. Hence justifying the reasons behind Pakistan’s so-called duplicity.

But considering how it is in fact the US now that is pressing Pakistan to use those same ties to help extricate itself out of the Afghan quagmire, Pakistan’s strategy against the Taliban seems to have stood wholly vindicated. In fact, it appears downright visionary considering how in hindsight, Pakistan had repeatedly called on the US to consider negotiating with the Taliban – especially when the US had the upper hand following its initial successes back in the early 2000s.However,the US after squandering its own reputation and credibility and already having missed multiple chances to engage with the Taliban are now ironically banking on Pakistan to help secure an exit. A kind of exit that not only allows the US to perhaps save face at the international level, but also offer something palatable to the American people during an election year. Thus, once again reeking of the reactionary maximalism that has so often brought into question the US’s reliability and trustworthiness as an ally. Not to mention President Trump’s own ‘America First’ policy, which already risks squandering whatever little credibility the US has been left with in the first place.

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South Asia

India’s Modi: Messiah or Menace

Dr. Arshad M. Khan

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When the Hindu sages developed their way of life, they divided people into four castes:  Brahmins, the thinkers, scholars and priests at the top for they were the guides; Kshatriyas, the soldiers including the king second for they protected and governed society; Vaishyas the merchants third with their commerce facilitating daily living; and Shudras who were the laborers and service workers at the bottom.

Well, the world has changed as it should but perhaps they had a point as there is a Vaish — not one at the top of the class but a tea-seller from a shop that would be at the other end of the spectrum from those charming English tea shops in Devon — now running the country.  Of dubious education that has been challenged and a beginning in the ultra-nationalist RSS (once outlawed by India’s founding prime minister and known also for producing Gandhi’s assassin) Narendra Modi is at India’s helm.  His BJP party’s rise is linked to stoking up tensions between Hindus and minority Muslims, whose suffering has been well documented.  Police powers have been increased and Muslim Kashmir is now under direct rule from Delhi, while new laws are disqualifying Muslims from citizenship.  So reports The Economist in its special issue, The State of the World in 2020 (p. 53).

Better known is the pogrom of Muslims in Modi’s Gujarat when he headed the provincial government there, and his party’s role in the destruction of a 500-year old mosque built by Babur so that the fictitious birthplace of Ram would be holy to both religions.  Having overthrown the Muslim Lodi dynasty and with a tenuous hold, Babur was seeking friends among Hindu Rajas who generally owed fealty to the Delhi sultans.  The Mughal Emperors also started the custom of marrying Hindu royalty to cement relationships and ensure loyalty.  And this Mughal openness to other religions reached its apex under Emperor Akbar who founded a new religion, Din-i-Ilahi, attempting to incorporate the best from all faiths but which, lacking roots, died with him.

After the Indian rebellion against British rule, the British saw advantage in fostering division among communities in the infamous divide-and-rule maxim, now changed by Modi into suppress-and-rule, as the left-over Muslim community is poor and weak after the emigration of many to Pakistan following partition and independence in 1947.

Gandhi and founding prime minister Nehru’s vision of a secular India is enshrined in its constitution, which Modi and the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda subverts.  Its Hindutva, a Nazi-like ideology holding Hinduism supreme, wants India to be an exclusively Hindu nation noting that Hindu and Muslim cultures are different, without regard to the similarities.  As a video demonstrating the new ideology in practice points out, it is safer to be a cow than a Muslim in Modi’s India.

It is what one can expect when an ill-educated, charismatic tea-seller takes over the world’s largest democracy offering cultural superiority and its false pride, hare brained schemes like a deadline  declaring old high denomination banknotes illegal causing chaos at banks.  Poorly managed plans like toilets and gas cookers for the poor are touted as successes.  But the toilets are not used because the plans did not include maintenance, and gas cooker distribution is riddled with corruption.  Meanwhile, the economy suffers and the country ranks 102 out 117 on the Global Hunger Index (between Sierra Leone and Niger) and far behind Bangladesh.  So much for the hype.

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