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South Asia

FATF Greylist: Any Way To Get Out!

Michael Samuel

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Money laundering (concealment of illegally gained money then appear legal) and terror financing (activities which provide finance to individual terrorists or militant groups) nowadays is a big and dire problem. Many countries are engulfed in these problems and trying to get rid of it. Many steps have been taken to overcome these problems but all were in vain. When realized that it is a hard nut to crack a force was set up to root out terror financing and money laundering known as Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Financial Action Task Force commonly known as FATF is a global task force formed in 1989. This task force consists of 37 countries, with its headquarter in Paris, France. It is currently under the presidency of Mr. Marshall Billingslea who was appointed on July 1, 2018. Three main FATF observers are Indonesia, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. The main purpose of this force is to develop policies to combat money laundering and terror financing.

FATF has provided a series of recommendations which can be followed to stop money laundering and terror financing. Countries are monitored worldwide by the task force to examine if they have acted upon its recommendations to restrain the flow of funds to banned organizations (mafias, terrorist outfits, militant groups etc.). Since this is a serious threat at an international level to the integrity of an international financial system, this task force laid down the foundation of a list of those countries which are affected by or who are involved in money laundering and terror financing is known as greylist.

Pakistan’s history in the FATF greylist

It was 2009 when first time Pakistan was put into the Grey List. At that time Government of Pakistan People Party (PPP) was on the run. Later, the name of Pakistan was excluded from the greylist. After that, Pakistan’s name was again included in greylist in 2012 for the second time. In 2013 government of PPP ended and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) supremo Nawaz Sharif’s Government tenure started. Amid inclusion of Pakistan’s name in the grey list, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) launched an operation on June 15, 2014, against terrorism and militant groups called Operation Zarb-e-Azb. As this operation was on the run to hunt down the terrorists, world’s fourth-deadliest Army Public School (APS) massacre happened after which operation against terrorists intensified more. This operation helped a lot in a decimation of terrorism. When witnessed by FATF watchdogs that terrorism has been reduced to the much extent, name of Pakistan was excluded from the greylist in 2015.

As we know after 2015, terrorism has reduced more as compared to previous years and can be seen that it has almost vanished in Pakistan then what are the reasons that Pakistan’s name is again included in the greylist?

These were the aggressive tweets of Donald Trump in the month of January which pointed out that “the US has foolishly given $33bn to Pakistan to curb terrorism but Pakistan has done nothing in return except lies and deceit. Pakistan has failed to hunt down the terrorist and is providing safe haven to them.”

As a result of Trump’s tweets, a meeting was conducted and a petition was launched in which Pakistan needed three votes to stay out of the greylist and Pakistan did grasp the required number of votes (Turkey, China, and Saudi Arabia) and abstained itself to be placed to the list. After this, Khawaja Asif erupted and tweeted that we have thwarted the US’s agenda to put Pakistan to the list due to which Donald Trump jointly by Modi led Indian Lobby after two or three weeks again pressurized FATF for an unprecedented second discussion on Pakistan. Pakistan again needed three votes to stay out of the list. By then, the US convinced Saudi Arabia to give up its support to Pakistan in return for full membership of FATF. Then there left only two, China and Turkey. China, which is known to be all weather friendly and whose friendship is higher than the mountains, deeper than the ocean informed Pakistan that they are “opting out as they don’t want to lose face by supporting a move that’s doomed to fail” and thus voted against Pakistan. Turkey voted in favor of Pakistan. So, this time only one vote goes in favor of Pakistan and thus Pakistan was officially placed in the greylist on June 28, 2018 regardless of the 26-points action plan formulated by the International Cooperation Review Group (ICRG) of the Asia Pacific Group (APG) which was also submitted to the FATF to choke terror financing, money laundering, ban militant groups including mastermind behind the Mumbai attack Hafiz Saeed-led JuD and its affiliates and totally freeze their assets.

Pakistan is the ninth country to be placed on the Paris based FATF’s grey list while other eight states with strategic deficiencies are Ethiopia, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia and Yemen. The plan to put Pakistan into the greylist was jointly moved by the US and three key powers of Europe (the UK, France, and Germany) in February. Finance Minister Dr. Shamshad Akhtar represented Pakistan and argued to remove Pakistan from the greylist but they did not hear a word of her sayings.

Consequences of non-implementation of action plan

As being placed on the greylist. It is now worth exploring that what could this mean for Pakistan. How its placement can affect Pakistan’s efficiency at national and international level.

Mainly Pakistan’s inclusivity in greylist can squeeze its economy and could make it harder for the country to meet its ascending foreign financing needs. This could also lead to a downgrade in Pakistan’s debt rating. Pakistan may also suffer a risk downgrade by multilateral lenders like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank and European Union (EU). Currently, these are the major risks which are expected can be inflicted on Pakistan.

In case of blacklisted

If Pakistan fails to comply with its 26-points action plan then there is no doubt that no one can save Pakistan to be placed on the blacklist of the FATF which means total disaster of the country. Currently, FATF blacklist features Iran and North Korea.

Being blacklisted means direct sanctions on Pakistan’s major international transactions, imports and exports, foreign loans, can distort its international standing, banks can pull out, can be a fall in foreign currency inflow, further fall in Pakistan’s large current account deficit (CAD), Pakistan’s stock market can fall at a greater speed. These are few disturbing factors for Pakistan if it ends up blacklisted.

In case of a blacklist, above cited sanctions might also result up as a chaos at a national level in Pakistan leaving no jobs for the masses of Pakistan, increase in debts, increase in taxes, inflation and would be directly and constantly scrutinized by FATF’s financial watchdogs. All confidential transaction will go through under watchdog’s surveillance.

By putting all these risks aside, the factual evidence, both historic and current, demonstrates the incorrectness of these mentioned assertions. Pakistan was on the FATF grey list from 2012 to 2015. A period in which Pakistan’s imports and exports remained stable and grey listing did not prove to be a significant barrier to trade.

Recently, a delegation of FATF came to Pakistan to review the implementation of the action plan and asked Pakistan to maximize the penalty and imprisonment period for those who proved to be involved in such offenses.

What to do to get out of greylist?

The only way for Pakistan to get out of the grey list is to focus on the 26-point action plan. Implementation of action plan effectively by taking enforcement action against illegal money and value transfer services (MVTS), control on illicit movement of currency, identifying and investigating terrorist financing activity and target designated persons and entities, and persons and entities acting on behalf or acting at the direction of designated persons or entities, prevention of moving funds to designated terrorists including freezing of their assets (both movable and immovable) and demonstrate enforcement against TFS (targeted financial sanctions) violations.

South Asia

Remapping Indian Occupied Kashmir: A Multipronged Travesty

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The second Presidential Order on the Reorganization of Jammu & Kashmir by India in 2019 is yet another outlandish decision to challenge the objectives of a peaceful coexistence. It is a call for altering an International Order more conversant to breach the democratic political norms, history and fundamental rights. Kashmiris are once again rebuffed of their demand for self-determination while being locked in an unprecedented brutal curfew entering into more than one hundred days. The desecration is obviously offensive.

Including the areas of Gilgit, Gilgit Wazarat, Chilhas and Tribal Territory of 1947, a part from the remaining areas of Leh and Ladakh districts of 1947 into the Indian Union is a violation of several United Nations Security Council resolutions passed decades ago. The Kargil District was already carved out.

Historically, there were 14 Districts of Jammu & Kashmir at the time of partition, which included Kathua. Jammu. Udhanpur, Reasi,  Anantnag, Baramullah, Poonch, Mirpur, Muzaffarabad, Leh and Ladakh, Gigit, GilgitWazarat, Chilas and Tribal Territory. The new districts included were Kupwara, Bandipur, Ganderbal, Srinagar, Budgam, Pulwama, Shupian, Kulgam, Rajori, Ramban, Doda, Kishtiwar, Samba and Kargil. The illustrative declaration of Muzaffarabad and MirpurKhas areas of Azad Kashmir which are under the administrative rule of Pakistan is an untenable denial of the history of the region.

To refresh their memories India needs to remember that at the time when Maharaja Hari Singh signed the controversial Instrument of Accession with India in October 1947, Gilgit was already inflamed with the passions of rebellion against Hindus and Sikhs living in Gilgit. While representing the will of his people, Muzzaffar, the raja orderly in Chilas said:

“The whole of Gilgit Agency is pro-Pakistan … we could never swear allegiance to Hindustan. Apart from religion, the Gilgit Agency is really a part of the NWFP and is therefore a part of Pakistan. If Kashmir remains independent, well and good … .But if the Maharaja through pig headedness and bad advice, political pressure or attractive remunerations accedes to Hindustan, then there will be trouble here!”

This was sensed by the British Administrator William Brown as well and decided to overthrow the then Governor Ghansara Singh in a bloodless coup d’etat in November 1947 and a provisional government was established by the locals of Gilgit. Raja Shah Rais was appointed as the president and Mirza Hassan Khan as the Commander-in-Chief. Pakistani political agent took over the region, once Khan Abdul Qayyum received a telegraph from Brown on November 16, 1947.

By May1948, the Gilgit Scouts had already taken over Baltistan, Ladakh and Skardu as well. Indian reinforcements were blocked at Dras and Kargil which helped them cut off Indian communications to Leh in Ladakh. However, Kargil was recaptured by them in autumn 1948 but Baltistan remained in control of Pakistan, after which India itself took the issue to the UN.

The current remapping of the region of Jammu & Kashmir is nonetheless not only a snubof facts but also adding into already destabilising factors in the region.The Pakistani parts of Kashmir to the north and west of the cease-fire line established at the end of the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947, or the Line of Control as it later came to be called, were divided into the Northern Areas in the north and the Pakistani state of Azad Kashmir in the south. The name “Northern Areas” was first used by the United Nations to refer to the northern areas of Kashmir. Pakistan has declared that “no step by India could change the disputed status of Jammu and Kashmir as recognised by the United Nations”, and has pledged time and again that it will continue to support the just struggle of the Kashmiris.

In an attempt to rewind the India of antiquity or revitalize the Indian Civilization lost in the international order of nation-states in the post WWI era, Narendra Modi’s arrogant Hindutva regime is non-realistic. The current attempt is a follow up of the Geospatial Information Regulation Bill (GIRB) passed by the Indian ministry of Home Affairs on May4, 2016, during his earlier tenure of rule on India. The Bill was meant to regulate the acquisition, dissemination, publication and distribution of geospatial information of India. It restricted the addition or creation of any information related to geospatial imagery, data acquisition through space or aerial platforms such as satellites, aircrafts, airships, balloons or unmanned aerial vehicles without the permission of the government of India. The Bill also made its violation indictable in contravention of the section 4 with a fine ranging from Rs. 1 crore to 100 crores or imprisonment for a period of up to seven years. The draft resolution had also decided to set up an Apex Committee, A Security Vetting Authority and an Enforcement and Appellant authority to only allow the distribution of maps considered right by the Indian government. It was deceptively declared to ensure the security, sovereignty and integrity of the state of India with impact on all who may or may not agree with the Bill defining the geographical boundaries of India. The spokesman of the Indian External Affairs Ministry Vikas Swarup once reiterated that the state of Jammu & Kashmir was an “integral part of India” and the GIRB was an “entirely internal legislative matter of India.”

Assaulting the international political system, human dignity, basic liberties and perpetual boundary disputes by the Indian offensive posture have added to the stressed political environment of the region. In case of the failure of the domestic proceedings to address human concerns, it becomes mandatory for the world community to ensure the respect of the world peace. History records that after the WWII, there had been 14 out of 21 major inter-state wars on territorial conflicts. Global history of cartography has always been closely linked. Situating the “geobody,” along with altering the archival documents by the nationalist regime of Modi largely emboldened by the Western powers for their own strategic and economic preferences, is a teasing question on the UN partiality. The history of border violations or failed negotiations over an issue increases the likelihood of armed conflict and nonbinding management.

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South Asia

Kartarpur Corridor: A message of Peace and Prosperity

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Kartarpur corridor was opened on 9 November 2019 (Saturday). It paved the way for the Sikh community to visit one of the most important religious shrines without a visa. There are approximately 150 million Sikhs around the world, out of which around 120 million are living in India. The other countries having the Sikh community are Afghanistan, Pakistan, UK, Canada, and USA.  However, the origin of the Sikh religion in Punjab, which was divided into Indian Punjab and Pakistani Punjab in 1947 at the time of independence of the sub-continent from British rule. The partition of Punjab has divided many Sikh families between Pakistan and India.  Due to political rivalry, among Pakistan and India, has adversely affected the Sikh Community. Some of the family members have never met in the last 72 years and few of them have already expired already.

While Sikh, Muslims and other religions lived together for centuries, especially in Punjab, and enjoyed complete harmony as the language and cultures are identical. But after partition, in 1947, the rivalry between Pakistan and India kept them separated for 72 years. With the opening of this Corridor, the Sikhs community in India becomes the most beneficiary and they are grateful for the gesture of goodwill by Pakistan.

The Kartarpur Corridor connects between Pakistan and India, the Sikh shrines of Dera Baba Nanak Sahib (located in Punjab, India) and GurdwaraDarbar Sahib (in Punjab, Pakistan). The corridor is intended to allow religious devotees from India to visit the Gurdwara in Kartarpur, 4.7 kilometers from the Pakistan-India border, without a visa.

The Corridor was first proposed in early 1999 by the prime ministers of India and Pakistan, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif, respectively, as part of the Delhi–Lahore Bus diplomacy. On 26 November 2018, the foundation stone was laid down on the Indian side and after two days, on 28 November 2018, the foundation stone on the Pakistani side was laid down by Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan. The corridor along with all its allied services and amenities was completed in a record time frame. The corridor was completed for the 550th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev on 12 November 2019. As a special to mark the 550th birth anniversary, the Government of Pakistan has waved the fee amounting to US Dollars 20 for three days. It has created a huge good-will.

The corridor has not only connected the Sikh community on both sides of the border but also opened a new chapter of religious tourism in Pakistan. There are many other religious sites in Pakistan, which belongs to Hindus or Sikhs religion and may attract devotees and visitors in thousands of thousands in number. Kartarpur corridor is just a beginning, if it goes smoothly, many new sites will be open to Hindus and Sikhs as well.

This will also generate an opportunity for economic activities and enhance people to people contact. Promote harmony and understanding between the two hostile nations. In fact, Kartarpur Corridor is a message of Peace and Prosperity.

Pakistan is a peace-loving nation and a very responsible state. Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan is well matured, visionary leader. He said on this occasion “Pakistan believes that the road to the prosperity of the region and bright future of our coming generation lies in peace”, adding that “Pakistan is not only opening the border but also their hearts for the Sikh community”. The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, compared the decision to go ahead with the corridor by the two countries to the fall of the Berlin Wall, saying that the project may help in easing tensions between the two countries.

Previously, pilgrims from India had to take a bus to Lahore to get to Kartarpur, which is 125 km journey although people on the Indian side of the border could physically see GurdwaraDarbar Sahib Kartarpur on the Pakistani side. An elevated observation platform had also been constructed on the Indian side, where people use binoculars to get a good view.

Indian Prime Minister Modi has thanked PM Imran Khan for his good-will gesture. It is hoped that India will reciprocate in the same manner and provide an opportunity to the People of Pakistan and Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan to thanks Indian Prime Minister Modi.

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South Asia

The efficiency of German contribution in the Afghan peace process

Ajmal Sohail

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Germany is heavily involved in the afghan affairs since 9.11.2001; the country has brought in to being the modern Afghanistan thru launching the international Bonn conference “Bonn 1” in December 2001, the said conference toke place right after the collapse of the barbaric regime of Taliban in Afghanistan. Furthermore, it paved the way to engage several rival groups to establish an interim administration under the leadership of pro-American figure “Hammed Karzai”. Albeit the conference was a turning point in the Afghan modern history, but it encompassed numerous shortcomings because Taliban, Haqani Network and Hikmatyar band, who had been the main adversaries to the acting Government, were excluded from the process, which opened Pandora’s Box. Moreover, the national interests and apprehensions of the regional countries were not taken serious, which in turn caused destabilization and gloominess in Afghanistan.

Consequently, Pakistan and Iran who have been pursuing strategic depth in Afghanistan began to regroup, fund, train and outfit the Afghan government antagonists, which unfortunately incited a proxy war in the country. 

The second Bonn conference

Germany hosted the second Bonn conference in December the 5th 2011 to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the first Bonn conference, in order to renew the so-called mutual commitment to a table, democratic and prosperous future for Afghanistan.

In addition, the participants of the conference ought to shed lights on some issues such as governance, security, economic developments, regional cooperation, peace process and the way forward. The participants called for a political solution to achieve peace and security in Afghanistan, in order to ensure durable stability.

Additionally, it was discussed to promote capacity building in the country to uphold   a political process, to endorse negotiation and reconciliation. Unfortunately, the conference primarily focused on economic developments and continuation of democratization in the country, so that the peace process was sidelined and the root-cause of the instability and insecurity was not identified. Which ended up with further destabilization and blood-shed in addition, sparked fears and violence in Afghanistan.

Doha conference

In July the 7th 2019 Germany and Qatar hosted a conference in Doha Qatar, which was labeled intra-afghan dialogue. The hosting countries endeavored to bring about a framework in order to support the peace process in Afghanistan. In accordance with the joint statement, that the country is at a central crossroad to snatch the chance to accomplish peace, so the shortest concord linking the afghan adversary groups could be one of the essential factors of any process leading to such an objective.

It was also expect, that the conference would contribute to confidence-building amid chief rivals to hold up peace and constancy in Afghanistan. Although the conference did not have a tangible agenda, but at the end a resolution was released calling for reducing violence, avoiding to assail public institution and bringing civilian causalities to “zero”.  Despite the efforts of the conference hosting countries, the conference comprised inadequacies; the Afghan government, which ought to be the main party, was excluded from the direct-intra-afghan-dialogue.

Not only the ceasefire, which has been the only wish of the Afghans, was not sincerely addressed, but also no-part of the outlined resolution has been implemented. Regrettably convening of the conference did not put into practice the expectations of the Afghan people, so that the security situation fundamentally deteriorated.  

The third Bonn conference

Subsequent, to the walk out of the US president from the Afghan peace deal, Germany wants to jump in exerting its leverage to bring the Afghan rivalry bodies to the negotiation table. Germany is really concerned, if the US troops withdrawal will take place Kabul government would collapse and the positive developments have so far came about would be lost. Thus Markus Potzel Germany’s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, since some times endeavors to hold meetings with the representatives of both Taliban and the Afghan government, in order to initiate another round of peace talks.  

 Consequently, If Germany genuinely put forth its efforts, it will help to avoid political vacuum in Kabul, let the democratization process to flourish, women rights to thrive and the economic prosperity to boom. Germany enjoys full-scale leverage in the entire region and beyond, because Germany stationed the second largest troops in Afghanistan, the country is one of the main initiator of the NATO Resolute Support Mission for Afghanistan and it is one of the top 10 contributors to the reconstruction process and humanitarian assistance in the country.

Germany has very good diplomatic relations with almost all of the surrounding countries of Afghanistan; it has influence on all of the gulf countries including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE, which are supposed to be the major patrons of Taliban.

In addition, Germany leads the EU commission and it is the number one economy in Europe and number 4 economy in the world. If it will put in 2% of its GDP to the NATO annual budget, Germany would be the second leverage enjoyer within NATO following the United States of America. So Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany (cnt-alliance) express the need for the initiation of the third Bonn conference, which should include all opponents to be brought to the negotiation table, in order to form a framework of lasting peace, continuation of the political process, stability, Good and lean governance, economic prosperity, revival of democratic norms and revamping of human and women rights as well as confidence building amongst regional countries.   

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