The infamous Syrian civil war is etched into history forever. A decade-long conflict that claimed almost half a million lives, razed towns, and displaced millions. While the Arab spring is touted as the flicker of angst that sparked the catastrophe, the Syrian uprising began in the quaint city of Deraa. A southwestern city bordering Jordan, Deraa is widely attributed as the birthplace of the upheaval that upended Syria back in 2011 and onwards. However, while the devastating chaos has since mostly subsided, the city remains the epicenter of insidious instability as rebels maintain a domesticated stronghold despite government resistance. And while a fragile negotiation holds the last flicker of hope for the entrapped civilians, it is not a steady ground yet to expect a haven in the war-wrecked country.

The rebels fighting the government of President Bashar al-Assad seized control of Deraa right after the skirmishes turned into conflict before finally escalating into a full-fledged war. Their grip, however, lasted until 2018. With the fall of ISIS and the diffusion of Kurdish fighters to the northern frontier, the Russian-backed regime besieged multiple cities across Syria. The government campaign lasted months as brutal fighting undertook major cities under the control of the rebels. Weeks of fighting eventually led the government forces to overpower the rebels in Aleppo, Deraa, and Idlib. With no alternative, the rebels resorted to surrender. While Moscow brokered a peace agreement, also known as the ‘Reconciliation Accords,’ all was not well – especially in Deraa.

The Russian-backed forces took control of the city and most of the rebels either joined the government forces or handed over heavy weaponry in exchange for a safe exit to government-controlled regions in Syria. However, a few rebels retained control over a slew of areas within the city. With the help of influence within the forces of the regime, the rebels managed to hook control of the southern half of the city; which eventually became known as the eponymous district of Deraa al-Balad, while the northern half stood as the stronghold of the Assad regime.

Since the government seized the city, the escalation has developed into a routine for the civilians. While the genocidal tendencies no longer run rampant in Syria, artillery still rains like purgatory over the civilians as government forces try to permeate the southern region. The government forces have tried to impregnate the outskirts of Deraa al-Balad yet have continuously failed to topple the hold of the opposition leaders. In response, the roads are barricaded to surround the rebels, strangle their ammunition, and subdue their resistance. Instead, civilians have suffered starvation and casualties. Recently in July, an escalation resulted in the deaths of 18 civilians at the hands of the government forces as violence engulfed the city while the government forces attempted to breach the city.

A question is frequently posited; why do the government forces want to infiltrate the city so badly? Especially when the rebels have already surrendered heavy weaponry to the Syrian army. The foremost reason is the strategic location of Deraa al-Balad. The city is extremely proximate to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights: a strategic front touted as a key ground eyed by Iran’s proxies in Syria. The Iranian forces in the echelons of the Syrian army are driven by a motivation to gain access in the city to deploy forces on the southern front of Deraa. Meanwhile, the Russian offensive is at play to completely subdue the rebels to gain a whelming influence over Syria. Thus, the ulterior agendas of Iran and Russia could be labeled as the primary catalyst behind the raging military action around the city.

Another reason could be the desire of President Bashar al-Assad to crush opposition in every which way possible to avoid another scare in the future. The offense is clear in Idlib, Aleppo, and Deraa as the government forces are prudent in maintaining a pivotal position over the rebels to allow leverage if any faction decides to coagulate against the regime. Even during elections, almost a third of the Syrian population was barred from voting, including Deraa al-Balad, where mass demonstrations were staged to denounce Mr. Bashar al-Assad.

With his fourth stint in the office, President Assad has geared a renewed strategy to infiltrate the city of Deraa. The government now aims to deploy more forces in the city, run more rigorous checks and searches while gaining control of the frequented checkpoints of Deraa al-Balad. Moreover, the regime has demanded a surrender of soft weapons as well as a handover of the wanted opposition figures spewing venom against the regime. However, the rebel negotiators have called out for a peaceful transfer of all opposition leaders to Jordon or Turkey: a key point of contention. Furthermore, the leaders of Deraa have voiced their right to hold soft weapons and deny a thorough house search under the conditions of the 2018 Reconciliation accords. The impasse, however, exists as negotiations are teetering on a thin rope to somehow avoid chaos and bag a mutual consensus.

Since 2018, the Assad regime is accused of severing necessities from the city of Deraa al-Balad. Human rights observers have voiced concerns as the government forces continue to weaponize aid to bend the rebels to their will. International humanitarian organizations have cited that the government forces don’t differentiate between the civilians and the rebel fighters as hundreds of innocent civilians have been brutally killed since the government’s siege of northern Deraa. Now as the negotiations falter so does the standard of living of the civilians. Their lives have been forced to get accustomed to a constant fear of bombardment while barely surviving without food, medicines, or electricity.

Approximately 24,000 residents have been displaced while close to 12,000 still remain entrapped as government forces perpetually clash with the rebels. The harrowing reality is if the negotiations fail to settle the dispute, and the government’s assault progresses further, then surely the city of Deraa al-Balad would fall into a humanitarian crisis. A lasting solution is required, not a ceasefire, as both rebels and the government forces are not civil enough to maintain a passage of peace without going ballistic. The government (and the allied forces) should stop using civilians as scapegoats to lure the rebels and achieve geopolitical objectives. Instead, the government should strive for an inclusive society to put an end to the spiral of civil war – once and for all.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan perpetuates a paradigm of failed governance in the Muslim world based on a centuries-old alliance between Islamic scholars and the state that, according to scholar Ahmet T Kuru, explains underdevelopment in many Muslim-majority states and authoritarianism in most.

The takeover also highlights that, in a twist of irony,  a majority of competitors for Muslim religious soft power, leadership of the Muslim world, and the ability to define Islam have as much in common as they have differences.

The takeover further spotlights the Muslim world’s struggles to free itself from the shackles of a paradigm that is at the root of its ills. That struggle has expressed itself in a decade of protest, dissent, defiance, and often brutally suppressed or derailed popular revolts as well as the self-defeating flight into militant and jihadist interpretations of the faith that fail to recognize that their radical view is nothing else but another variant of a failed model.

Neither do the other major religious soft power contenders, with the exception of Nahdlatul Ulama, one of the world’s largest, if not the largest Muslim organization based in Indonesia, irrespective of the ideological bent of their religious vision.

Nahdlatul Ulama, a politically influential civil society movement, is the only non-state player in what amounts to a battle for the soul of Islam that will determine the degree to which a moderate Islam incorporates principles of tolerance, pluralism, gender equality, secularism, and human rights as defined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

The other major contenders include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, proponents of a state-led moderate form of Islam that propagates absolute obedience to the ruler; Turkey that pushes a Turkic-centric and nationalist state-controlled interpretation of the faith, and Iran that is ruled by the clergy.

“Some ‘moderates’ think that Islam should be controlled by the state… The result is strengthening of the ulema-state alliance and its authoritarianism. Radicals. on the other hand, have sought a unification; claiming that Islam is both religion and the state,” Mr. Kuru said in an email exchange with the author.

The contenders, again except for Nahdlatul Ulama, insist that there is not only one religious but also only one political truth. Nahdlatul Ulama officials say that the movement’s most influential ‘spiritual’ wing argues the diametrically opposite despite a diversity of views within their ranks.

“The spiritual wing of the Nahdlatul Ulama teaches the duty to find the truth… Don’t try to impose your opinion and your so-called perception on other human beings. Nobody knows if you are correct or if you’re wrong… The spiritual ulema strive to know the truth rather than proclaim the truth,” said a prominent figure in the movement.

Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is not a major contender in the battle for the soul of Islam but revives the country’s adherence to Mr. Kuru’s paradigm.

The Middle Eastern contenders in the battle have more than just the ulema-state paradigm in common. Some also share an arbitrary attitude towards the sanctity of private property.

Authorities in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey have in recent years confiscated some US$135 billion in assets and cash as part of naked power grabs and crackdowns on political opponents that appeared arbitrary rather than anchored in legally credible procedures.

The confiscations cast a shadow over economic reform efforts, hinder unfettered economic development and stymie innovation at a moment that oil producers’ ability to continue to rely on export revenues may be diminishing.

In a just-released study, Mr. Kuru calls for the replacement of the ulema-state alliance with “open, meritocratic, and competitive systems where the political, religious, intellectual, and economic classes are able to operate autonomously, and none is able to dominate. Such a reform requires the expansion of freedom of thought, by abolishing apostasy and blasphemy laws, and a deeper protection of private properties by preventing the state’s seizure of them. The reform also necessitates an institutionalisation of separation between religion and the state.”

Muslim autocrats and authoritarians, in contrast to China, which has experienced phenomenal economic growth directed by an autocratic regime, perpetuated under- or lop-sided economic development by maintaining the ulema-state alliance, creating rentier states in resource-rich countries, and failing to invest in education and bureaucratic efficiency.

Shifting the paradigm may constitute a challenge that few Muslim rulers are likely to accept. Sounding on an optimistic note, Mr. Kuru argued that the fact that rentier oil-producing states will need to diversify their economies may leave rulers with little choice.

“Oil rents have funded ulema-state alliances for the past five decades. Soon, these rents may lose their importance with the depletion of reserves, rise of domestic consumption, and/or innovation of alternative energy technologies. Many Muslim countries will need economic restructuring and innovations to be prepared for the challenges of the post-oil era. To maintain long-term stability and prosperity, these countries need to build productive systems that encourage entrepreneurship. Such a reform requires that the ulema-state alliance ceases to control socio-political life,” Mr. Kuru said.

Mr. Kuru suggests that his prescription is not without precedent in Islamic history. The Muslim world’s golden age that lasted from the 8th to 11th century was enabled by intellectual and mercantile classes that could drive scientific and economic progress because it enjoyed “a certain degree of separation” from its political rulers.

“During the same time period, Western Christian societies had almost the opposite characteristics. There was a strong alliance between the Catholic church and royal authorities, while the philosophical and merchant classes were either non-existent or very weak. Western Christian countries were places of religious orthodoxy and intolerance in comparison to their Muslim counterparts,” Mr. Kuru said.

The 11th century is when the Muslim and Christian worlds reversed roles. The Muslim world moved towards the ulema-state alliance and militarisation while Europe institutionalized the separation of state and church.

Europe witnessed the opening of universities and the rise of commercial city-states while the Muslim world experienced the emergence of a stifling feudal economy, the origins of sectarianism, the marginalization of private landowners and merchants, and the dominance of narrow-minded religious education.

To be sure the facets of post 11th century Muslim society have evolved over the centuries as the world moved forward and as a result of social, economic, technological, and political advances. Muslim-majority countries today all have the attributes of a modern state. They embrace economic reform, social change, and technological innovation to varying degrees, and political change not at all.

In the 19th century, Ottoman and Egyptian reformers reduced the power of the ulema by absorbing their role rather than creating space for a more independent intelligentsia and merchant class. So did 20th century secularist leaders who viewed intellectuals and independent businessmen as threats to their grip on power that they sought to legitimize with Islam.

These 20th-century leaders revived the ulema state alliance in different forms, including the creation of institutions Turkey’s Directorate of Religious Affairs or Diyanet or the state-encouraged and controlled Islamization of countries like Egypt and Pakistan.

Taken to its logical conclusion, Mr. Kuru argues that current ‘moderate’ Muslim rulers, as well as jihadists and militants, misinterpret Muslim history in ways that justify their autocratic rule and give them an edge in the battle for the soul of Islam yet are not born out by historical research.

The golden age of Islam teaches the opposite. The norm then was a degree of ‘separation of church and state,’ not the control of religion by the state advocated today by statist moderates and radicals alike.

The Kingdom of Morocco is voting this Wednesday, September 8, in general elections combining legislative, regional, and local elections for the first time. These third elections since the “Arab Spring” and the constitutional reform of 2011 that redistributed powers between the Royal Palace and the executive branch are being held despite the constraints of the pandemic and are particularly important as the balance of power in the region is changing substantially, especially between Morocco and Algeria.

For the past month, the world’s attention was riveted on Afghanistan, following the Taliban’s takeover of the country and the American disengagement, emblematic of a radical change in the US External policy. However, at the gates of Europe, an essential geopolitical reconfiguration is taking place, one of the most important moments of which will be the general election that will take place in Morocco on September 8, while the Maghreb is undergoing great changes.

Morocco is indeed considered by many analysts as the country that has best resisted the pandemic, ranking first in Africa in terms of vaccination – more than 60% of its target population to date has received at least one dose – and having succeeded in mobilizing considerable resources for its economic recovery over the past two years, while deploying a giant safety net for the most fragile populations. On the industrial front, the Kingdom of Morocco, which has relied since the mid-2000s on automobile production in particular, has seen its exports jump and is expected to pass the symbolic milestone of $10 billion in value by 2023, with nearly 700,000 vehicles produced per year. As noted by the American giant Deloitte in its latest report on Morocco released in August 2021: ” In the context of the Covid-19 global crisis, the Kingdom of Morocco demonstrated remarkable responsiveness on both the health front and at an economic and financial level. The Kingdom successfully reorganized the productive system to stop the wave of contaminations, while rolling-out major measures to provide an economic buffer to the significant social distress generated by lockdown measures. The country has also capitalized on this crisis to undertake fundamental reforms, such as the generalization of social protection measures launched in the spring of 2021 and the gradual digitization of public services.”

But it is on the diplomatic front that the years 2020 and 2021 have certainly seen the most developments, contributing to a rise in tensions with neighboring Algeria, which led the latter to unilaterally break off diplomatic relations with Morocco on August 24.

Several factors to consider

There are several factors behind this decision. First, the recognition by the United States of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in December 2020. Considered one of the world’s longest-running low-intensity conflicts, the dispute over Western Sahara pits Morocco, which administers the largely desert territory in the south of the Kingdom, against the Polisario Front, which is supported politically, financially and militarily by Algeria. Although recognized by only a dozen countries, the Polisario Front continues to demand the organization of a referendum on self-determination in Western Sahara, where Morocco has been proposing broad autonomy for the territory since 2007. Second, the resumption of diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel, home to nearly 700,000 Jews from the Kingdom, has increased tensions between the two countries. More recently, an initiative by Morocco’s representative at the United Nations to support the autonomous movement in Kabylia has been a “Casus Belli” for Algeria, leading it to break off relations with its neighbor, with which the land borders have been closed since the mid-1990s, despite numerous calls from Rabat to reopen.

Very different trajectories

Beyond these elements, the election organized by Morocco on September 8, for which nearly 4,500 domestic and foreign observers were deployed, illustrates a fundamental difference in trajectory for the two Maghreb brothers. On the one hand, a Morocco that is diplomatically, industrially and economically offensive, that dreams of being a future African “Dragon”, but that still suffers from social polarization and strong income disparities. On the other, an oil and gas powerhouse that has suffered from the fall in the price of oil since 2014 and whose political context is still fragile following the “Hirak” revolt movements that led to the fall of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in early 2019. As noted by the Maghreb specialist and German researcher Isabelle Werenfels in an interview with French newspaper Le Monde “In recent years, it is Morocco that has scored points. Not only has the kingdom achieved important economic, political and diplomatic successes (religious diplomacy, regularization of sub-Saharan migrants, participation in COP 22, etc.), in sub-Saharan Africa and on the international scene. But he has also been very good at selling them.”

In this context, the holding of the Moroccan elections on time despite the epidemic context, as well as the likely establishment of a broad coalition government regardless of which political party came out on top of them, is undoubtedly a signal of the lasting installation of Morocco as the country with the most important assets to be the bedrock of stability and security in a still troubled region.