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Big Data and the new techniques of government political and strategic decision-making

Giancarlo Elia Valori

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Some considerations on Big Data.

As is now well-known, it is a technology which mainly  deals with collecting, processing and selecting a huge quantity of different data.

As in some Hegel’s works, here Quantity immediately becomes Quality. The mass of data and the link between them change – hence also its meaning and use change.

A technology or, rather, a series of technologies joined together, which processes many terabytes (2 at the power of 40 bytes, equivalent to 1,048,576 megabytes) at the same time. A huge amount and, above all, simultaneously. Another type of quantity that is immediately turned into quality.

After the creation of the International Telecommunication Union in Geneva in 2017, still led by the Chinese Houlin Zhao, we have some addition alfacts to evaluate the extraordinary relevance of the Big Data Science.

Meanwhile, just the everyday processing-collection of huge amounts of news allows -also by comparison only – the discovery of many new data and often even of industrial or state secrets.

Moreover, if data can be treated with different chains of meaning at the same time, it will be revealed in all its importance and, often, in roles different from those with which we are used to interpret it.

This is obviously essential to make the economic, financial, political, military or intelligence leaders’ analyses and decisions accurate and effective.

Approximately 90% of the data currently present in the world has been generated over the last two years. It seems impossible, but it is so.

Furthermore, every day 2.5 quintillion of new news  (every quintillion is 10 at the power of 13) add to the big data networks alone, but 80% of this mass is non-analyzed and cannot be studied with the usual comparative technologies, whatever the speed with which we employ them.

According to other models for analyzing the global news flows, in 2010 over 1,2 zettabytes – i.e. 10 at the power of 21 bytes, equivalent to a sextillion of bytes – were produced in one year only, while in 2020 a total of 35 zettabytes a year will be produced.

Hence the larger the quantity and the form of big data, the lower our ability to use it, if not with very advanced technologies. However, the larger the quantity of big data, the greater the need to choose the policies to be adopted on the basis of these quantities.

Hence, if the world produces all this data, it is inevitable to consider at least the reason for its huge dimension. Hence even the problems are as big as Big Data.

Just think of environmental and ecological issues or of energy and Internet networks.

It seems almost a paradox, but it is inevitable that nowadays the political, military and strategic decision-making is based on a quantity of news by far exceeding what –  in the best cases – happened in the twentieth century alone.

Governments, however, mainly need the intrinsic predictive ability these new technologies have.

Certainly big data is currently needed – for example – to predict-manage car traffic in large areas and to  organize health, as well as for protection from terrorist attacks or even for environmental protection and protection from natural disasters.

Nevertheless, the Big Data technology is particularly useful for evaluating the development trends of very complex phenomena – trends which become visible and statistically relevant and which are anyway generated only on the basis of huge amounts of data.

However, we are heading for decision-making quantification which is possible, both technologically and ethically, because the huge amount of data collected is anonymous, already structured and, above all, processed for strictly statistical purposes.

With specific reference to military and strategic defense and to intelligence, in particular – which are already the strength of big data technologies – the progress in news gathering stems from the creation of the new In-Q-Tel company “incubator” – at least for the main US intelligence service, namely CIA.

It is the non-profit company which analyzes and later invests in the most technologically advanced projects, or at least in those where there is some relevance for intelligence.

The initial idea for investing in Big Data – at least for the USA and its agencies – was to avoid the most serious mistakes of Human Intelligence (Humint).

As had already happened in Iraq or, previously, in the Lebanon. Still today, however, data is catalogued according to the old system which divides it into structured, semi-structured and non-structured data.

The first class is the one in which each storage element has at least four singular characteristics identifying it. The second class has only some designation features, which are never fully used.

The class of news that currently expands most is obviously that of non-structured data.

Nevertheless the sequence of news to be gathered is more complex: in addition to the typical intelligence collection, there is the operation of cleaning, noting and representing data in such a way that it is readily available for analysis. Furthermore data needs to be processed and specific algorithms to be created, while mechanisms of news similarity must be developed so as to extrapolate  the news  needed, which are probably not known to human users.

A technology known as data mining.

Algorithms also operate to create data collection models for computers, which can continuously teach computers how to refine their search.

This is what is known as machine learning.

Computers learn from a set of data, defined as “examples”, in an automatic process called learning – hence they automatically adjust their algorithms so as to attribute values and categories already known to examples not yet classified, without deleting or changing the incoming data.

In more practical terms, the thematic big data collections and the creation of examples can permit the wide use of the  automatic transcription of audio conversations, with a view to making them usable through key words. Then a sentiment analysis can be made through the reactions on social media. Hence mapping the reaction of the population to an event, a stance, a future law or a future trade war.

There is also – among others – the Geofeedia software, another example of sectoral use and machine learning in the Big Data sector, which is a platform enabling analysts to check the social media in geo-localized areas.

In the case of the analytical process, the large “trawlers” of Big Data are mainly needed to define the most probable strategic scenarios in the future or to create more specific and operative working assumptions in the intelligence field, or to analyze the opinion trends of the public and of the debate within the party and Parliamentary ruling classes.

All this is certainly not enough, because the intelligence that matters is like the black pearl or the black swan, or the particular correlation that – if tested within a range of options – creates the most rational choice or, possibly, even the most obvious one for the leadership of an opposing country.

Here the issue does not lie in collecting all the stamps of New Guinea, but to find the penny black that nobody had seen so far.

Nevertheless the analysis of the popular sentiment, or of the most obvious development trends of a social, financial or natural phenomenon, certainly guarantees that these options will be very probable and above all less “polluted” by adverse operations.

Or is this not the case? Indeed, the trolls’ actions  are mainly related to the hybrid war and to the great operations of what -at the time of Cold War – was called dezinformatsjia, literally “disinformation” in Russian.

However, while in a pre-IT phase before the world dimension of the World Wide Web, doing disinformation meant targeting a certain sector of the adversary to fill-saturate it with fake news, which would naturally lead to a wrong decision (to be manipulated as enemy’s mistake or  incapacity) or to a decision-making block, or to the decision that the Enemy wants you to take. Everything changes, however, with the trolls, which are a result of Big Data.

Trolls are anyway subjects who interact on the Web with the other participants without disclosing their identity.

Hence the trolls always operate with huge amounts of data that shield them from others’ sight. They enter the social media of vast user communities and finally react so as not to ever disclose their true nature. They often split and create other trolls.

Hence currently online dezinformatsjia operates with large data sets, such as Big Data, and affects the vast masses of Web users with a view to changing their perceptions, their political action – even on the Web -as well as blocking any reaction in the masses penetrated by an Enemy and, indeed, create a new self-image for them.

Much data, many features with which to hide the new identity of users-adversaries – and the more they are flooded with data, the more they will forget their old identity.

This is the action of a troll in the “hybrid war” and hence  in what we could today define as an automated “mass psychological war”.

Currently there is both a symmetrical and opposite relationship between the Big Data of two enemy countries – as in the series of frescoes known as The Allegory of Good and Bad Government, painted by Ambrogio Lorenzetti and hosted in Siena’s Palazzo Pubblico.

On the one hand, the Angels ensuring justice – the  typically Aristotelian, “commutative” or “distributive” justice – on the other, the Bad Government, the devilish tyrant who administers cruelty, betrayal and fraud, which are the opposite of the three theological-political virtues of the Good Government.

Hence, in more topical terms, Big Data is an extraordinary equalizer of strategic power – there is no longer small or large country, nor even non-State communities, compared to traditional States, which cannot wage a fight – even invisible to the most – with major powers.

Nevertheless, reverting to the current strategic and technological situation, Big Data will have many unexpected effects, at military and geopolitical levels, that we can summarize as follows: a) all “high” and “low” communication will become mobile and geo-localized social media.

Hence, in the future, intelligence will increasingly deal with the selective dissemination of its data, as well as with their careful spatial-personal determination and with their specification according to areas and receptors.

We will have an increasingly tailor-made intelligence. Furthermore, b) the Big Data challenge is somehow the opposite compared to the old Cold War-style technology.

While, in the past, the data collected ranged from Much to Little, looking for the confidential or secret information that changed the whole geopolitical perspective, nowadays it ranges from Much to Much, because the collection of declassified data – if well-processed – generates confidential news and information that are often unknown even to those who generated them.

Currently the secret is a whole technology, not just a mere datum or fact.

It is a technology changing according to the data it processes, precisely at the moment when it processes it.

Furthermore, c) the future “Big Data” solutions will be modeled and increasingly user-friendly.

They will often be intuitive and hence available also to medium-low level operators in the field.

The old division between “analysis” and “operations” will no longer exist. The true or fake news will be so manifold as to become – as such – war actions.

No longer messages to the ruling classes, but mass signals to the masses or selective operations for individual groups.

Moreover, d) the all-pervasive nature of the Web will be such as to create both new information opportunities and unavoidable “holes” that the Enemy will exploit easily.

Nor should we forget the use of other new technologies, such as laser optical space communications, which will make military and “service” communications safer – although further challenges, such as the new encrypted and adaptable “Internet of things”, will already be on the horizon.

In essence, in the intelligence field, Big Data will match  the human operators’ analytical potential, thus making them often capable of operating in restricted and selected areas with a speed equal to that of the perceived threat.

A sort of “artisanalisation” of the intelligence Services’ analysis, which will incorporate more data from the action field and will be ever less controllable ex-ante by some central political authorities.

Again thanks to the huge amounts of incoming data (or data targeted to the Enemy), there will be vertical integration between strategic analysis and top political decision-making, while both analytical and operational choices will be entrusted to local units, which will see an ever-increasing integration between operators and analysts.

We must not even forget, however, the real military technologies: the analysis of social networks, which can be automated, at least at the beginning, and manipulate both the popular sentiment and the adversary technologies.

Furthermore the automatic update of the weapon systems networks, increasingly integrated via the “Internet of Things”, as well as intelligence and the analysis of trends for tactical operations. Finally the activity based intelligence, i.e. a methodology – again supported by IT networks – which allows the analysis of even microscopically anomalous behaviors of the enemy’s small patterns of life.

There will be new types of analysis and hence new collections of large (and new) data.

Hence not only Big Data, but new storage for new classes of data.

Moreover, we should not forget a real cultural revolution that all what is very advanced technology will make  absolutely necessary.

Hence, while in the past the intelligence area was well defined and regarded a (not always easy) correct perception of the national interest or the position of one’s own stable international alliances, currently – thanks to Big Data -all this becomes not obsolete, but anyway very different from the logic of Nation-States.

Nowadays, for example, the analysis of intelligence Services – at least of the most advanced ones – will be increasingly oriented to the creation-verification of the different fault lines of the opposed public opinions, or to a new sector we could define as “political intelligence”, which is no longer just the manipulation of the enemy ruling classes, but not even the current mass dezinformatsjia spread through Big Data.

In the future, I already see the creation of diversified managerial classes from outside, with the distribution of technologies which is allowed or forbidden depending on the geopolitical choices of one or more adversaries. Hence we shall imagine a new intelligence which, unlike what currently happens, plays a role in the determination of the international “value chains” and in the global distribution of work, but above all of the technologies that enhance it.

Everything will take place ex ante and ever less ex post. Nevertheless this implies a transformation of the ruling  classes and hence a profound change in their selection.

Advisory Board Co-chair Honoris Causa Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori is an eminent Italian economist and businessman. He holds prestigious academic distinctions and national orders. Mr. Valori has lectured on international affairs and economics at the world’s leading universities such as Peking University, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Yeshiva University in New York. He currently chairs “International World Group”, he is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group. In 1992 he was appointed Officier de la Légion d’Honneur de la République Francaise, with this motivation: “A man who can see across borders to understand the world” and in 2002 he received the title “Honorable” of the Académie des Sciences de l’Institut de France. “

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Intelligence

The old and new techniques of Dezinformatsjia

Giancarlo Elia Valori

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Disinformation – i.e. what the Soviet intelligence services called Dezinformatsjia – is at the origin of the phenomenon that we currently define – with oversimplification -fake news, spread to support or not voters’ or consumers’ specific choices, obviously both nationally and internationally. Nowadays the “political market” is globalized exactly like the market of goods and services and hence all the tools available to a country and to its political elite need to be used.

Certainly the intelligence agencies’ room for manoeuvre is currently much wider than it was at the time of the Cold War. Hence many mass manipulation techniques, which in the past were specifically political, are now also commercial, behavioral, cultural, scientific or pseudo-scientific. They are closely interwoven and currently the electoral or political manipulation operations often stem from commercial marketing techniques.

Dezinformatsjia, however, is always a “weak to strong” operation, i.e. a series of strategic and information actions that try to prevent the use of force by those who are tactically superior.

Those who have not enough missiles targeted against the enemy,  or have not the maximum military efficiency, faces the opponent with psychological and propaganda techniques, which cost less and – by their very nature -do not trigger a conventional military countermove by the enemy against whom they are targeted. However they can trigger an equal and opposite disinformation by the target country.

These are all “ironic” operations, in the etymological sense of the word. Irony comes from the Greek word eironèia, i.e. “fiction, dissimulation, or to say the opposite of what you think”.

Just think of the great demonstrations against “Euromissiles” in the early 1980s -not foreseen by the Soviets, which put a strain on the huge intelligence network of the Warsaw Pact in Europe – or of the myth of the opening to dissent in the era of Khrushchev’s “thaw”. Or just think – as maintained by Anatoly Golytsin, the former KGB officer who defected to the USA – of the schisms between the USSR and Mao’s China, or of the transformation of the Komintern into Kominform, in which also Yugoslavia secretly participated, even after the famous schism between Tito and Stalin.

According to Golytsin, a senior KGB officer, all the divisions within the Communist world were a huge and very long sequence of fake news. Westerners never believed him, but the predictive power of his book, New Lies for Old, published in the USA in 1984, is still extraordinary.

He foresaw the “liberalization” of the Soviet system and even its collapse, so as to be later reborn in a new guise. All true, until today.

But what is really Dezinformatsjia, i.e. the technique that is at the origin of fake news and of all current psychopolitical operations?

For the KGB experts, disinformation is linked to the criterion of “active operations” (aktivinyyemeropriatia), i.e. the manipulation and control of mass media; the actual disinformation, both at written and oral levels; the use of Communist parties or covert organizations. In this case, just think of all the organizations “for peace” or for friendship “among peoples”, as well as of radio and TV broadcasts.

“Active measures” even include kompromat, i.e. the “compromising material”, as well as damaging and disparaging information about Western agents or politicians’ involvement in sex, illegal and drugs affairs. This information is collected and used strategically across all domains, with a view to creating negative publicity.

An active kind of measure that we have recently seen at work against President Trump. Nevertheless it has been implemented by his fellow countrymen, who, however, do not seem to be very skillful in the art of desinformatsjia.

It should be recalled, however, that currently a fundamental technique is to manipulate the opponents’ economies or to support guerrilla groups or terrorist organizations.

Manipulation of economies through statistical data or governments’ “covert” operations on stock markets, while support for terrorist groups, even those far from the State ideology, is provided through an intermediary that may be another State or a large company, or through bilateral financial transactions outside markets.

The Red Brigades, for example, initially trained in Czechoslovakia by passing through the Austrian woods at the border, owned by the Feltrinelli family.

When the publisher Giangiacomo Feltrinelli was found dead near an Enel trellis in Segrate, but long before the Italian police knew who had died on that trellis, the Head of the KGB center in Milan hastily went to report to the Soviet embassy in Rome.

Many friendly and enemy States, however, used right-wing and left-wing terrorism against the Italian Republic.

The goal was clear: to destroy or annihilate a dangerous economic competitor, especially in Africa and in the East.

Dezinformatsjia, however, was institutionally targeted against what the Soviets called “the primary enemy”, namely the United States.

Under Stalin’s power – who was dialectically “superseded” by Khrushchev, always in contrast with true innovators – “active measures” also included assassination.

I do not rule out at all that, in particular cases, this tradition has been recovered even after the death of the so-called “little father”.

As we can see, “active measures” -namely Dezinformatsjia – still has much to do with contemporary world.

If we only talk about fake news, we cannot understand why it is spread, while if it is interpreted in the framework of the old – but still topical – disinformation strategy, everything gets clearer.

In the Soviet regulations of the 1960s, every KGB foreign branch had to devote at least 25% of its forces to “active measures”, while each residence had an officer specifically trained at Dezinformatsjia.

It should be noted that, in 1980, CIA estimated the total cost of “active measures” at 3 billion US dollars, at least.

It was the real struggle for hegemony that the USSR was fighting, considering that the missile, nuclear and conventional balance of the two forces on the field did not permit a real military clash.

However, the result of the final clash would have been very uncertain.

Nowadays every State produces fake news, as well as ad hoc opinion movements, and spreads agents of influence in the media, in universities, businesses and governments.

Hence the globalization of disinformation, not simply fake news, is the phenomenon with which we really have to deal.

During the Cold War, the Soviet apparata spread the fake news of the CIA and FBI involvement in the assassination of John F. Kennedy, while the East German apparata often spread news about Western politicians being members of Nazi hierarchies or about the pro-Nazi sympathies of Pope Pius XI.

It should also be noted that Andropov, who was elected General Secretary of the CPSU in 1982, had been the Head of the KGB First Chief Directorate, precisely the one that coordinated and invented all “active measures”.

At the time, Western newspapers were filled with news about Andropov as a “modernizer”, a reader of the American literature classics and a jazz lover.

Was it Dezinformatsjia? Obviously so, but no one answered that question, thus raising expectations – among the NATO European Member States’ peoples – about a sure “democratization” of the Soviet Union in the future.

Andropov, however, secretly believed that the United States would unleash a nuclear war in the short term against the USSR. Hence this was the beginning of a long series of Dezinformatsjia hard operations right inside the United States.

Nevertheless, following the rules of “active measures”, they were not specifically targeted against the US military and political system, but against other targets apparently unrelated to the primary aim: the US responsibility for the (impossible) creation of the AIDS virus or – as the Soviet Dezinformatsjia always claimed – the “unclear” role played by CIA and FBI in the assassinations of J.F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King or even the death of Elvis Presley.

A specific product for each public.

Hence a fake storytelling is created – not a series of objective data – around a theme that is instead real, so as to reach the goal of a generic defamation of the primary enemy, where there is always a “bad guy” (obviously the US government and its Agencies) and a “good guy”, that is the American people that must be freed from the bad guy holding them prisoner.

According to the theories of the great Russian scholar of myths, tribal rituals, folktales and fairy storytelling, V.I. Propp, whose text “Morphology of the Folktale” was published in Leningrad in 1928, this is exactly one of the primary narrative elements of the folktale.

As in the case of  KGB “active operations”, Propp’s scheme envisages some phases of construction of the myth or of the folktale: 1) the initial balance, i.e. the phase in which everything is devoid of dangers; 2) the breaking of the initial balance and hence the creation of the motive for the subsequent action; 3) the vicissitudes of the hero, who is the one who “restores order” after the natural twists and turns; 4) the restoration of balance, namely the conclusion.

Hence the mythical and fairy mechanism concerns the archetypes of the human psyche, as described by Carl Gustav Jung.

This is the reason why, despite their evident counter factuality, propaganda constructions work well and last well beyond the time for which they were thought and designed.

Active operations are modeled on the natural parameters with which the human mind works. When well done, said operations do not use abstract theories, cultural or sectoral models. They speak to everyone, because they act on the unconscious.

It is no coincidence that currently the archetypal branding – i.e. the marketing system based on the 12 Jungian archetypes – is increasingly widespread.

It was created in 2001, several years after the fall of the USSR and in the phase in which the New World Order was strengthening.

Propp’s four elements work just as an “active measure”, based on four categories: 1) mastery and stability; 2) belonging; 3) change; 4) independence.

It is easy to verify how these four categories of modern marketing (and of the archetypal tale) fully apply  both to disinformation operations, which can often favor one of the four elements compared to the others, and to the actual political marketing.

Hence politics, intelligence services’ propaganda and marketing currently work on the basis of the same deep psychic mechanisms.

In the Soviet tradition, there is also a certain tendency to use Ivan Pavlov’s psychology in the field of intelligence.

Pavlov developed the theory of “conditioned reflexes”, i.e. the psychic mechanism that is produced by a conditioning stimulus.

The experiment of the dog and the bell is, in fact, well-known and needs no elaboration.

It should be noted, however, that the conditioned reflex is triggered precisely when the food announced by the sound of the bell is no longer there, while the dog shows all the typical reactions of the animal in the presence of food.

Here, the “active measures” of disinformation create a conditioned reflex by connecting a country, a leader or a political choice to something universally negative which, however, has nothing to do with the primary object.

This connection becomes instinctive, automatic, obvious and almost unconscious.

Just think of the automatism – once again artfully created – between the Italian intelligence services and the so-called “strategy of tension”.

The goal of perfect Dezinformatsjiais to create a Pavlovian conditioned reflex that works immediately and naturally as a Freudian “complex”.

Nevertheless, with a view to being successful, every fake news or message that is part of an “active measure” must have at least a grain of truth – otherwise it immediately appears as an opinion or ideology, which is soon rejected by the subject.

This means they can be discussed and maybe accepted rationally, but the “active measure” must mimic an immediate, natural and pre-rational reaction. Otherwise it becomes traditional propaganda or part of an open debate, exactly the opposite of what it has to do.

Hence the message must be processed with extreme care to reach the goal of any disinformation operation: to convey in the public “enemy” and / or in its ruling classes a message that – when well done – fits perfectly and unknowingly into the communication mechanisms of the “enemy”.

Western experts call this procedure “weaponization of information” or “fabrication of information”.

Nowadays, however, all information is distorted by the manipulation about the aims it must achieve – just think of the Italian and European debate on immigration from Africa.

Hence also the West uses the weaponization of information- but, probably, it still uses it badly.

Hence we will never witness the end of fake news – which  have always existed – but simply its refinement as real natural “states of mind” or, more often, as immediate reactions, such as those connected to a conditioned reflex artfully created.

In this case, there is no longer difference between reality and imagination.

Fake news as fiction – we could say.

If this is the new battlefield of psywar, it will be good for Italy – even autonomously from the NATO center that deals with “strategic information” – to equip itself with a structure, within the intelligence agencies, developing and carrying out specific disinformation operations.

For example, with reference to the Italian companies operating abroad, to Italy’s general image in the rest of Europe and to its action in Africa or in the rest of the world.

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The third way between war and diplomacy

Sajad Abedi

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The American presidents all asked the CIA when they arrived at the White House, “What should they do with it?” Often they underestimated the CIA’s analysis. These analyzes described a complex world and they said the process of events was ambiguous.

Evaluation, hypothesis, probability. The White House never praised such literature. The White House often preferred analyzes that were within the framework of its political intentions and intentions. On the other hand, the White House has been increasingly inclined to publicly disclose some of the information collected by the services, due to the persistent desire to attract people from their big decisions.

Instead, the presidents were heavily pushed by the secret power that the CIA possessed. The covert activities, as a “third way” between war and diplomacy, heavily attracted them. All of them have implemented programs in secret to stealthily influence the process. All of them were trying to keep their apps in use. Despite the scandals, the political and diplomatic problems caused by secret activities, none of them questioned the necessity and effectiveness of this instrument in foreign policy.

These covert measures began to expand slightly in the 1950s, at a time when the CIA’s invincible myth was formed. CIA officers, who found such actions as a source of prominence and privilege, did everything to cultivate them. This myth derives from a special cultural sign: Americans as a nation have a very positive image. America considers itself to be a nation that succeeds; it is a winner who challenges ahead of them through his will and technology. The CIA is responsible for this sweeping spirit in Washington.

The slogan of the CIA has long been: “The agency can do it.” Therefore, the opponents of power would not be taken into consideration because the United States needed shadow warriors to protect the country from the Soviet threat, without anyone having much to know about it. This era of trust ended in the process of deconstruction and after disclosure of the “internal” spy activities of the CIA. So the great age of complexity began, which brought fantasies and other conspiracy theories. The CIA takes ugly signs into a dangerous, rogue and out-of-control organization. But Robert Gates states: “The CIA is nothing more than a presidential organization. Every time this organization has faced trouble, it was due to the mission that the president ordered. »

In any case, this is the image of America in a world that has suffered the most pain and suffering from this country. The fact that the United States has an agency like the CIA is necessarily a two-tail razor.

The press and the Congress, in spite of the fundamental belief in the effectiveness of the CIA, served as two powerful guardian dogs to oversee the agency in the service of the president. The dynamics of American democracy, as well as the strong attachment to the constitution and individual freedoms, have made the CIA the “most transparent” intelligence service in the world. The contradiction is that the Americans know more about the secret activities (activities that are definitely the most secret and sensitive activities) to the total CIA performance. Perhaps even more are than the overall performance of other institutions, including the State Department or the Ministry of Health.

Sept. 11 attacks occur and shake the sense of security and invincibility that the United States has plunged into. Since then, US soil is no longer a haven, and the attack has the same effect as Pearl Harbor’s attack. The outcomes of the Iraq war are being added to the most fundamental reorganization in the US intelligence community since about sixty years ago. Information services acquire new authority, many other services are formed, and some of the old networks are weakened or even destroyed, the need to focus more on the powers of information services is felt.

These changes are so far as the United States is creating a CIA over the previous organization. The new goal is to give Americans a unique look at the services. The new organization will focus it’s analyze on the analysis. That’s why we can bet that in the future less than the CIA’s inability to anticipate important events. On the other hand, because of the new reformation of the new head of the American intelligence apparatus, and the CIA has become the agency responsible for all the secret activities, it can be assumed that the CIA will (slightly) head over the next few years will be kept.

The tension between interventionism and the previous doctrine of isolationism has led Americans to redefine the intelligence system as the “last line of defense”. In some respects, this device is the beginning and end of its power; and since the CIA has seen its strength in its mission of being as close as possible to the American enemies, that’s why today it still maintains this precious position.

The CIA actually has an almost inescapable position in the imagination as well as the American political system. The organization gives all its actors the confidence that someone, something, America is intertwined with international affairs, and its influence on the four corners of the world shines.

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What is the Future of Malhama Tactical?

Uran Botobekov

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The leader of Malhama Tactical Abu Rofiq

Perhaps no single Salafi-Jihadi groups from Central Asia deserved such close attention of Western media like an Islamist private military contractor (PMC) Malhama Tactical (MT), that founded by a jihadist from southern Kyrgyzstan and training militants in Syria.This was possible thanks to the creativity and active self-promotion of the head of this small consulting firm on the Internet, which has managed to attract the attention of many Western journalists and researchers on Islamic radicalism.

The authoritative Foreign Policy called MTthe world’s first jihadi consortium of elite, well-paid fighters from across the former Soviet Union and compared its activities with the infamous Blackwater USA (now named Academi).BBC Monitoring published a series of analytical articles entitled How Malhama Tactical became the ‘Blackwater of the Syrian jihad’ in December 2018.The Independent, CSAF,the American Partisan, The Daily Caller, MEMRI and others also described MTas a successful jihadist training organization that supposedly changed the course of the Syrian war.My colleagues in the study of Salafi Jihadism Pieter Van Ostaeyen and Neil Hauer even interviewed the MT’s commander in November 2018.

The main disadvantage of all these articles is the lack of critical thinking regarding MT.Western analysts relied on videos, interviews and statements of MT’s leaders published on the Internet as advertising.As a result, the MT’s tactical role in the Syrian war is undeservedly overestimated since the boast of its leaders is taken at face value.

About MT more detailed facts cited the Russian Telegram channel Directorate 4, which is associated with the Russian special services.But the main problem of Russian researchers is that it is difficult to determine the edges of analysis and propaganda, which in some places is accompanied by rude insults to the MT’s leader.

The mysterious name of Al-Malhamah Al-Kubra

One should recognize the creative thinking of the Uzbek young man Abu Rofiq, who gave his organization the mysterious name “Malhama Tactical”, which was immediately noticed by the sponsors of the Salafi movement in the Islamic world. According to the Hadith, the al-Malhamah Al-Kubra means the great battle, bloody fights, massacres and the conquest of Constantinople by Muslims from the Romans.

Abu Rofiq likes to create a halo of mystery around his person and his organization. Western media have created his image like the fearless Rambo and a former officer of the elite of the Russian Airborne Forces, who from the inside knows the secrets of the Russian military-training science. On Facebook Abu Rofiq at one time positioned himself as a former sniper of the Russian elite Special Forces GRU whose staff was involved in the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Skripal in British Salisbury and in the interference of the 2016 US elections.

The leader of Malhama Tactical Abu Rofiq

But our analysis showed that some of the statements of Abu Rofiq were not true.All his biographical data, family ties and information about the military career are known to the authorities of Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The real name of Abu Rofiq is Sukhrob Baltabaev who was born in the Osh region of Kyrgyzstan on August 10, 1993.By the way, the leader of al Qaeda-linked Katibat al-Tawhid wal Jihad Abu Saloh is also from this region.

After completing school in 2010, he left as a labor migrant to Russia. The Russian authorities have documented that Sukhrob Baltabaev was called up for military service on May 14, 2012, by the Military Commissariat of Russia’s Tatarstan.He began serving in the 45th Guards Separate Special Purpose Intelligence Regiment of the Airborne Forces in the Moscow Region.However, due to the disease of an intervertebral hernia, he was discharged from the Russian army.

Hijrah to Sham not for the purpose of Jihad but for making money

According to Russian sources, after an unsuccessful military career, Sukhrob Baltabaev returned from Moscow to Kazan and worked as a computer programmer at the firm Potok.In those years that ISIS and al Qaeda began actively recruiting Central Asian migrants working in Russia to Syria and Iraq.Having fallen under the influence of the ideologists of Wahhabism, in February 2014, he left for Syria and joined the Jamaat of Chechen militants Shishani.A young wife from Osh and a son Muhammadrofiq remained at home.

At the end of 2015, he created MT with several friends from Central Asia, who began to train on a commercial basis both local and foreign militants in Syria fighting against the regime of Bashar al-Assad.The exact number of the group’s members is unknown but it is thought to consist of 10-15 fighters, all originating from former USSR states.Knowledge of computer technology, creative advertising campaign and ability to find a common language with the leaders of jihadist jamaats helped him in developing this business.MT has become popular due to the wide use of social networks such as YouTube, Facebook, VK, Twitter and Telegram, where he began to publish examples of military training under the pseudonym Abu Rofiq and offer his services for money.

In Central Asia, there is a saying that “Uzbeks know how to make money out of thin air.” There is even a joke about when the American astronaut Neil Armstrong first landed on the moon, he met there Uzbek who trading in the Lunar Bazaar. In the genes of the peoples of Central Asia, where the Great Silk Road lay, historically there is the ability to trade. The natural flair did not fail Abu Rofiq: he found a unique opportunity to make money from the Syrian war.

The company has been working with the al Qaeda-affiliated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ajnad al Kavkaz, Jaysh Muhajirin wal-Ansar,and other groups, even Ahrar as-Sham .I am not a military specialist and cannot assess the quality of MT’s tactical trainees on the use of various types of weapons and fighting in urban combat. But MT’s instructors use popular Russian-made 7.62 mm machine gun, US-made modern sniper rifles, helmets with night vision goggles and the expensive military equipment that the armies of Central Asia cannot afford. The other equipment shown in the videos, like the first-aid kit, is also of high quality, used often in US army and its allies.

Malhama produces equipment for other jihadi groups, manufactures accessories for the PKM, vests and grips, widely used in Syria. This means that MT’s business is doing well and its leader has enough connections somewhere to guarantee himself a supply line of such type. The MT leader actively used the online crowdfunding urging sympathizers to donate money to continue Jihad and training the Mujahedeen. At the same time, currencies of all countries were accepted, even bitcoin, QIWI and Yandex. Money electronic transfers.

Russian hunt for the leader Malhama

With the acquisition of fame and the growth in the number of clients, the real hunt started for the MT leader from the Russian special services, the Assad regime and ISIS.The MT leader considers Moscow and Damascus enemies of Islam who destroy peaceful Muslims in Syria. Moscow has special claims to the MT leader. As shown the attempt to kill former KGB agent Skripal in the UK, Putin will pursue his military, who have betrayed the oath. Despite Moscow’s refusal, Sukhrob Baltabaev is a former military of the Russian Army.

In addition, he inflicts sensitive blows to Russia. In a recent interview, the MT’s head stated that the Mujahideen Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who had been trained by Malhama, had made an attack in Tarabiya, Northern Hama, and killed four high-ranking Syrian officers and seven Russians on November 10, 2018.ANNA-News Agency confirmed this information.

Trainers of Malhama Tactical

MT has also been vocal about its opposition to ISIS. On 20 June, Abu Salman posted on his Twitter account an anti-IS message saying: “We must kill them all, ISIS is evil and we have to do something to wipe them out”.

For security reasons, the MT leader appears in the media in masks, or with a scarf tied on his face. According to BBC, the first MT leader Abu Rofiq was killed in February 2017 in a Russian air strike in Idlib. After that Abu Salman Al-Belarusi on Twitter called himself a new MT commander who is Uzbek from Belarus and served as senior sergeant of the 103 Airborne Brigade of the Belarusian Army in Vitebsk. But the Belarusian side did not confirm this information.

But according to the Russian media Abu Rofiq did not die.In order to mislead the Russian special services he spread false information about his death, and now he took the pseudonym Abu Salman Al-Belarusi. That is, Abu Rofiq and Abu Salman Al-Belarusiare one and the same person, that is, Sukhrob Baltabaev from Kyrgyzstan. After comparing the audio and video performances of Abu Rofiq and Abu Salman Al-Belarusi, we concluded that the voice belongs to the same person. The authorities of Russia and Central Asia have identified Sukhrob Baltabaev and continue to closely monitor his relatives.

Ideological views of Malhama Tactical

The ideological views of the MT leader contain the outfit’s mixture of Salafi ideology with the privatization of war because money plays an important role for him in his project. But he cannot be counted among the radical Wahhabis, who are ready to die as Shahid in the name of Allah. His various speeches showed that his level of knowledge of the Quran, Hadith, and Surah, the basics of Tawhid and Fiqh, is not very deep. Perhaps because of this, he avoids the Central Asian Salaf-Jihadi groups Katibat al-Tawhid wal Jihad, Katibat Imam al-Bukhari and Turkestan Islamic Party, who fight in Idlib. In ideological terms, he does not represent a big threat to Central Asia’s countries, because he is not able to conduct propaganda and recruiting campaigns. But he can be described as a jihadist who has close views with al Qaeda and performs his tactical tasks on technical training for jihadists.

Thus, MT was a new phenomenon in the Islamic world which has laid the foundation for the professionalization of Jihad. But without ideological doctrine, it is difficult to predict the continued “successful functioning” of the world’s first jihadi contractor. Therefore, it can be expected that the turbulent development of Jihadism and the fierce competition of terrorist groups will force MT to adopt the radical Salafi ideology and join a certain terrorist group. The history of radical Islamism has shown that the Wahhabi world will not accept those who do not have a deep ideological doctrine of Jihad.In the future, we can expect that the radical principles of Jihadism will force MT to go beyond earning money. MT is already gradually abandoning the concept of money…

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