Today’s wars are a new form and have a lot of complexity. Changes and widespread changes in the type and structure of wars have led to the introduction of new vocabularies into the world’s military literature, which is bioterrorism as a new form of terrorism. The unpredictability and suddenness, the power of mass destruction and destruction and the psychological stress caused by bioterrorism have made it one of the top priorities of societies and countries that want peace and security.
The fear of being exposed to a variety of diseases has always been a concern for man over the course of history. In the meantime, humane animals with animal temperament have always sought to exploit various factors to dominate and harm others. These people, with knowledge of the general panic of disease and the power of pathogens in paralyzing societies, have always sought to make the most of these factors in order to achieve their goals. With the advances made in genetic and medical sciences, this concern and general panic in diseases have been somewhat resolved, but these developments have led to some abuse.
Although bioterrorism is one of the main problems of public health and a threat to infection control, the fact is that bioterrorist thoughts and practices have always been in the aggressive nations, incite mental and political-economic rivals on the one hand, and in adversarial or retaliatory thoughts in individuals On the other hand, thousands of years ago, the armies, governments, and threatened personalities have existed and have sometimes come up with an incredible myth that all of these events reflect the oldness of thoughts and rarely bioterrorist practices. But the word Bioterrorism and Terrorist Wars came back after the 9/11 incident, so that the annual US budget was tens of times tallied to fight these criminal acts. The widespread propaganda that has taken place in this area has caused more and more people to be afraid of this phenomenon and compromising the mental health of societies. However, many people still believe that biological warfare has come to fruition of military imagination, while today, political developments and biotechnology advances have changed this belief.
Despite the irreparable risks and impacts of bioterrorist attacks on various societies, the fear and fear of society, patients, health workers and the general public is much wider than their real consequences. The mental responses of people who have been traumatized may be horror, anger, unnecessary worries about infection, and fear of spreading illness, desires, getting out of the community and turning to immoral things. Therefore, when planning to prepare for bioterrorist attacks, the psychological aspects of the problem as well as the way to prevent fear among people should be considered.
In assessing the factors affecting a bioterrorist attack, a number of other factors must be considered in addition to the assessment of the potential risks of biological agents or the likelihood of bio terroristic attacks. Therefore, it cannot be said that a terrorist’s unwillingness to use a dangerous biological risk reduces the risk of a terrorist attack on it, and on the contrary, even the most dangerous terrorists, in order to achieve their terrorist goals, need to have biological agents for harm and terror.
Dependency of factors causes each other to disproportionately focus on the above branches and to ignore the link between factors that reduce the threat, preventing a bioterrorism operation will be impossible. A tangible example of the above is that by reducing the vulnerability through a general vaccination against a specific agent, the bio terroristic motives and goals will be weaker in applying this particular factor.
In dealing with bioterrorism purposes, in addition to practical (objective) evaluations such as: determining the value of assets, the target vulnerability or the potential risk of a particular factor, consider the mental aspects of the case (the lines in the above diagrams Note). Knowing this subtlety can formulate separate policies that cannot be achieved without tackling terrorist intentions. For example, it is impossible to completely eliminate the vulnerability of the masses to a particular factor, but diverting terrorists’ thoughts from the vulnerability of a region’s people will reduce the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Most of the debates on bioterrorism focus more on the potential risk and less attention is paid to qualitative aspects such as the motivation of terrorists to use such deadly weapons or the vulnerability of different societies to bioterrorism.
One of the new theories about bioterrorism is “opportunity theory.” Thus, rationally, a bioterrorist attack occurs when a person is induced by a bioterrorist attack in a cost-benefit analysis and finds more than its cost. The aforementioned theory states that if the interests of the bioterrorists are more than the costs incurred by them, the probability of committing the crime from the strikers will increase. This theory states that by changing the cost-benefit components, the probability of a crime can be reduced. Also, by eliminating the excuse of the opposition groups to carry out bioterrorist activities, it is possible to prevent such offenses to a very large extent.
Any action taken to prevent the proliferation of biological agents will make it harder to achieve biological agents and will offer more opportunities to counteract the use of these agents. Therefore, by increasing the cost of doing such operations and taking into account the cost benefit analysis, incentives for using biological weapons are reduced.
The country’s capabilities in this area can be evaluated in various areas such as: public awareness, coping and prevention, treatment and removal of attack lesions. Since our country is an incident and a natural disaster is abundant in it, so looking at how to deal with these crises can be used to counteract bioterrorism attacks in most areas as well. Unfortunately, the unconscious, weak and slow handling of various devices in events such as floods and earthquakes and subsequent reconstruction shows that our country is by no means prepared to deal with such crises. The low level of knowledge and understanding of the executive bodies of the country and the people in coping with crises such as floods and earthquakes, which are well-known phenomena, illustrates the fact that there is a lot of work against threats such as bioterrorist attacks, which are even somewhat unfamiliar to specialized organizations such as the Ministry of Defense and Health. It is difficult and perhaps impossible. As preparations for dealing with these crises are not achieved in the short term, so at the present time, we should focus more on our strength, the country’s intelligence and security systems, which have proven their effectiveness in confronting various threats and prevent them from doing. Such operations will be ideal for the country as well as preventing such attacks from the consequences and pathology.
Preventing bioterrorism attacks using information work is much better and less costly than coping with it. And intelligence and security services have a great role to play. On the other hand, the use of a bioterrorist agent may become so rapid that it is impossible to control it, and the damage and losses incurred even for users is unpredictable and surprising. In some of the bioterrorist attacks, its perpetrators, which are more than the domestic opposition, are not intended to inflict human injuries or economic damage, but to mock the intelligence and security services and to weaken them in preventing and detecting these handicap threats. They take such actions.
Regarding the geographical situation of our country and opposition groups with the regime, it can be said that among the above groups, the MEK, the Kurdistan Workers Party and most importantly ISIS have the motivations to carry out bioterrorist operations against our country. It should be noted, however, that the MojahedinKhalq Organization has recently announced that it is no longer planning to carry out terrorist operations in order to gain EU-US support more openly and more openly. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party also does not have such terrorist operations on its record. The most important threat that can be mentioned is the ISIS group, whose history shows that there is no shortage of widespread and horrific operations. The hatred of this group of Iran’s Shiite system may well be due to the cause. But in my opinion, and given the recent developments in the region, emerging groups such as Jundallah, which do not have a clear and accurate regulation, are far more dangerous, given the violent and overwhelming attacks that have been taking place in recent years. The dependence of these emerging economies on large and advanced countries has increased the risk of these attacks, which indicates the heavy responsibility of the country’s intelligence and security systems at the present time.
Since the terrorist attack may not follow the expected pattern, the military and police forces’ efforts to identify and respond to biological attacks should remain high. In addition, a small prevalence of the disease can be a primary warning to more serious attacks, and the detection and use of preventive measures, such as vaccines and effective antibiotics, can save thousands of lives. In order to facilitate the rapid identification of bioterrorist attacks, all personnel of the military and police forces, such as health and medical personnel, should have at least basic “epidemiological” skills. Any small or widespread disease should be considered as a bioterrorist attack. This preliminary study should not be time consuming or requires new rules. In order to determine everything that seems unusual and refers to bioterrorism, the prevalence of surroundings should be considered.
The discussion of biological wars is a sensitive and preventable task by politicians of military strategists, scientists and lawyers. Performing a pre-biologic action is to create a strong barrier against less-likely threats, but with wider consequences, the most effective way to deal with these attacks. The discussion of bioterrorism attacks is not a cross-sectional one, and the readiness to deal with the bioterrorist attacks should be permanent and permanent.
All countries are vulnerable to biological terrorist attacks (Bioterrorism) and should not be ignorant of these attacks. Evidence suggests that the threat of biological attacks is on the rise, and emerging-age groups with less ethical responsibilities are expanding, so focusing on ways to confront the terrorist and concealed biological invasion is necessary. Finally, it should be noted at the end that, as ignoring and disregarding the bioterrorism threats is extremely dangerous, the magnitude and controversy in this case is also false and should be addressed logically.
Pulwama attack: False Flag Operation?
On 14 February 2019, a terror attack killed 40 Indian soldiers at Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir (IOK). The unfortunate incident happened when a convey of Indian soldiers were hit by an SUV full of explosives. The incident was condemned by leaders from all over the world including Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Mr. Khan immediately offered help to probe the incident and provide any possible help to find and capture the culprits. But the Indian government without proper investigation blame Pakistan for the Pulwama attack and showed intentions of strong retaliation.
The Pulwama attack created a serious deadlock between the two nuclear-armed countries. Pakistan called the Pulwama attack a “false flag operation” while India was all set for retaliation. The situation between the countries turned to an “international crisis” when Indian warplanes in the early morning of 26 February crossed the border and dropped bombs in Pakistani territory.
On the very next day, Pakistan conducts an airstrike in the Indian territory and shot down an Indian warplane. The Indian pilot Abhinandan was captured by Pakistani forces. The Balakot incident nearly damaged world peace as the two nuclear-armed states were ready for military conflict. However, Pakistan showed its longstanding desire for peace in the region by releasing the Indian pilot Abhinandan and exposing Modi’s false flag operation.
The Pakistani authorities called the Pulwama attack and the Balakot airstrikes as false flag operations conducted by fascist Modi’s regime to gain popular support in the upcoming election. The operation aimed to divert the public’s attention from domestic issues and create a regional crisis until the general election which was due in April of that year. But the Indian government denied all the allegations and blamed Pakistan for the Pulwama attack without any evidence.
However, during the recent police investigation of Arnab Goswami, the police have retrieved his WhatsApp which has exposed the Indian narrative of the Pulwama attack and Balakot Incident. Arnab Goswami is a renowned Indian journalist and strong supporter of Modi’s regime. During his conversation with Partho Dasgupta on 23 February 2019, Goswami hinted towards the Balakot airstrike and its importance for Prime Minister Modi in the upcoming election. Goswami texted “something big will happen”.
After a few messages on other matters, Dasgupta asked, “Dawood?”, referring to the notorious gangster who is wanted in several cases.
The conversation continued:
Arnab Goswami: “No sir Pakistan. Something major will be done this time.”
Partho Dasgupta: “Good.”
Partho Dasgupta: “It’s good for big man in this season.”
Partho Dasgupta: “He will sweep polls then.”
Partho Dasgupta: “Strike? Or bigger”
Arnab Goswami: “Bigger than a normal strike. And also, at the same time something major on Kashmir. In Pakistan, the government is confident of striking in a way that people will be elated. Exact words used.”
The police investigation of Arnab Goswami and leaked chats has exposed the Indian propaganda and vindicated Pakistan’s longstanding standing stance on Indian false flag operation. Prime Minister Imran Khan has asked for the world’s attention towards the Indian propaganda while saying “In 2019, I spoke at UNGA on how India’s fascist Modi govt used the Balakot crisis for domestic electoral gains. Latest revelations from communication of an Indian journalist, known for his warmongering, reveal the unholy nexus between the Modi govt & Indian media”.
Indian false flag operations like the Pulwama attack and Balakot airstrike are part of India’s Hybrid warfare against Pakistan. As I have discussed in my previous article, India is trying to defame Pakistan through propaganda tactics and present Pakistan as a hub of terrorism. But the recently leaked chats have exposed India and vindicate Pakistan’s desire for peace in the region.
After the leaked chats international community must take action against Modi’s fascist regime for damaging regional peace. Now that it is an established fact that Modi used false flag operations in Pulwama and Balakot to ensure victory in the election, the international community must support Pakistan’s stance towards peace and must hold India accountable.
Global War on Terror: Pakistan’s Role and Evolving Security Architecture for sustainable peace
If Afghanistan, according to former president of the United States (US) George W Bush was the center of terror, then Pakistan had been the center of war against it. After the 9/11 attacks, while announcing the Global War On Terror (GWOT), the former Bush administration invited international community including Pakistan for cooperation and adopted the foreign policy approach of “with us or against us” pick. Thus, there was no choice for the Pakistan except joining the US war in Afghanistan aimed terrorism elimination. The US policy of “with us or against us” to fight together against a common enemy could be dubbed as classic realist approach of “enemy of my enemy is my friend”.
Pakistan played a “crucial role” to eradicate the threat of terrorism to fulfill its desire for peace and stability at regional as well as global level. Despite playing pivotal role to fight the US-war on terrorism, Pakistan’s sacrifices and contributions has not been acknowledged and notion of ‘do more’ was raised by the US officials. However, terrorism encompasses various tactics to launch violent attacks against military personnel, civilians, and public. The most common tactics include use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED), suicide bombing, firing, Hand Grenade, Gun and bombs and Rockets. Thus, it is difficult to respond the tactics of terrorism as an act of war through military operations. Realizing the complicated nature of counter-terrorism operations and lack of success of the US forces in Afghanistan to hit the tactics of terrorist, only way forward for the US is negotiations and political settlements. Pakistan performed important role to construct roadmap for US-Taliban talks and provided relentless support in ongoing Afghan peace process. Pakistan’s role and efforts to facilitate peace negotiations between the U.S. and Taliban to agree on ‘Doha agreement’ are widely appreciated by International community and acknowledged by the US. But when it comes to the US war on terror, Pakistan is still denied of its due appreciation in its fight against terrorism and relentless support to coalition forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s contribution of providing logistic and military support by giving access to its bases and ports to the US, deployment of its forces along its border with Afghanistan to eliminate infiltration of terrorist, intelligence and information sharing to hit and capture extremist leaders is much more than its commitments to Operation Enduring Freedom (2001–2014) or GWOT.
GWOT and Escalating Instability in Pakistan
In the aftermath of its decision to join GWOT, Pakistan became targeted by radical terrorist groups due multiple factors including foreign financial assistance to internal sectarian hostility, religious extremism, emergence of Islam in politics. Significantly the turmoil in Afghanistan had spill over impact in Pakistan. Escalating terrorist attacks and huge influx of Afghan refugees in Pakistan instigate instability and insecurity in the country. Pakistan paid heavy price for its decision to join coalition in terms of relations with Afghanistan, low growth in economic sector including loss of human lives and psychological effects. Pakistan is plagued unprecedented levels of violence since Pakistan joined the GWOT as a front-line state. Independent sources reported that in the post 9/11 period, Pakistan lost 64,000 lives, damaged infrastructure and suffered financial losses of 150 billion USD.
Pakistan undertook a series of military operations to counter the menace of terrorism and extremism. According to the Global Terrorism Database, the sudden explosion of the terrorist attacks occurred in 2005 till 2014. Counter terrorism operations by Pakistan’s military contributed in the WOT and played a pivotal role in winning it. Significant decrease in terrorist activities in Pakistan since 2014 highlights achievement of military operations against terrorists and militants.(See figure 01)
Source: Global Terrorism Data Base & Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Pakistan’s Security Situation in 2020 and Geographic Distribution of terrorist activities
The trends in terrorist attacks indicates that number and lethality of terrorist activities in Pakistan is declining and country is heading towards peace and stability. In 2020, a total of 146 terrorism incidents were reported from across the country in which 220 people lost their lives, while another 547 were wounded. However, in 2019, a total of 230 terrorism incidents were reported from across the country in which 318 people lost their lives, while another 720 were wounded. The statistics for 2020 show a decline in number of terrorist attacks by nearly 38% as compared to 2019 when 230 attacks took place. Geographical distribution of terrorist attacks indicates a notable difference among provinces. Like the previous year, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP) and Balochistan had suffered most numbers of incidents; when compared with 2019, all the provinces have witnessed decline in terrorist activities. Meanwhile, Federal Capital Islamabad, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir remained the safest places as not even a signal terrorist attack occurred during the year 2020. Statistics mentioned in Pakistan’s security report 2020, published by Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) shows that country is making gradual progress to eradicate terrorism.
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), National/Local newspapers & Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Pakistan’s counter terrorism operations have played significant role to fight the violence and establishing peace in the country. Yet, Pakistan’s fight against terrorism is facing challenges due to continuing foreign finances and resources supply to terrorists’ organizations. Pakistan’s Counter-terrorism strategies should formulate mechanism to further strengthen multilateral cooperation among states to prevent, protect and pursue an attack and enhance the capacity to minimize the consequence of terrorist attack. Pakistan has entered in a fruitful phase of combating terrorism and managing its consequences efficaciously. Thus far, the US needed to acknowledge the unconditional contributions and sacrifices made by Pakistan and support the country in fighting this exhaustively expensive war on behalf of world community.
Hidden History – 1977 Terrorist Attacks in Moscow
On January 8, 1977,a series of terrorist attacks struck Moscow city, the capital of the Soviet Union. Three explosions occurred in a row in different places, with an interval of less than 40 minutes. All the employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB were raised on alarm. Leonid Brezhnev, General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee, who spent Saturday hunting, urgently left for the capital. At that time, the life of Muscovites was not overshadowed by rampant criminality. The concept of “terrorism” was exclusively referred to as a characteristic of capitalist countries by the Soviet people.
OnSunday rush hour, the first bomb exploded at 17.33 in a Moscow metro train,which was on the stretch between the stations “Izmailovskaya” and “Pervomayskaya”.The second bomb went off in the grocery storeNo.15 in the formerly named Dzerzhinsky Street (now Bolshaya Lubyanka), not far from the headquarters of the KGB at 18.05.Five minutes later, the third explosion occurred near the grocery store No.5.In total,7 people were killed and 37 got injuries of varying severity.The terrorist incident was kept secret from the public.
The KGB was assigned to lead the operation codenamed “Explosives” (“Взрывники”). The best investigators of the Prosecutor General`s Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB were engaged in the criminal investigation. The progress of the investigation was regularly reported to the then KGB Chairman Yuri Andropov and personally to Leonid Brezhnev. Although more than 500 witnesses were interviewed, not a single clue was found.In the end, the circle of suspected cities was reduced to three – Rostov-on-Don, Kharkov and Yerevan.
However, the terrorists were identified only after they began to prepare a new terrorist attack. On November 2, 1977, they decided to repeat the attack leaving a bag with a bomb, similar to the ones that went off in January in the waiting room of the Kursk railway station. But it stood in a crowded hall almost for a day and did not explode, because the batteries ran out. The ownerless item attracted one of the passengers’ attention, who reported the finding to the police on duty. A valuable piece of evidence was obtained: a blue sports jacket with an Olympic patch and a hat with earflaps manufactured in Yerevan.
In the Moscow-Yerevan train near the administrative border of Georgian SSR and Armenia SSR, an unknown young man who was traveling with a friend was detained. The passengers were identified quickly enough. They turned out to be 28-year-old Hakob Stepanyan and 23-year-old Zaven Baghdasaryan. Regardless of the fact that it was sharply opposed by Karen Demirchyan, the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Armenian SSR Communist Party, their apartments in Yerevan were searched, where additional evidence were found, including elements of explosive devices and a scheme of an explosive device that went off in the Moscow metro. Through Stepanyan, the investigation reached the third member of the criminal group. Stepanyan and Baghdasaryan, realizing that they were fully exposed, testified against the third member of the group, Stepan Zatikyan,who was not in Moscow at the time of the explosion. They confessed that he dragged them into the preparation of the terrorist attack. It was Zatikyan, who was the brain and ideological inspirer of the group. By that time, he was working at the Yerevan Electromechanical Plant. While studying at the Yerevan Polytechnic Institute, he founded the illegal National United Party of Armenia (NUPA) along with other friends in 1966.The group of nationalists developed an active underground activity and advocated for separatism. They published a clandestine periodical named “Paros” (Phare) and distributed leaflets protesting against “Russian chauvinism” and demanding the return of Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan to Armenia SSR. The group was uncovered in 1968. The founders and active members of the NUPA were convicted of anti-Soviet agitation and propaganda. Zatikyan’s verdict was not too harsh, he was released in 1972.In 1975, he sent a statement to the Supreme Soviet in which he renounced Soviet citizenship and asked to be given the opportunity to leave for any non-socialist country. The NUPA operated until 1987, when it was renamed the Union for National Self-Determination.
The investigation into the case of Zatikyan and his accomplices lasted about a year. The trial of the terrorists in the Supreme Court of the USSR took place from January 16 to 20, 1979. It was closed and secret. Even the relatives of the defendants were not allowed into the courtroom. The only information about the trial and the verdict in the news media was a short note in Izvestia (January 31, 1979).Stepanyan and Baghdasaryan pleaded guilty, Zatikyan did not. For him, the court became a political platform.A documentary about this trial was made. On the recording, one can hear Zatikyan saying in Armenian: “Tell people that these were Stepan’s last words: Revenge, revenge and revenge again.”On the other hand, Stepanyan said: “If one of us survives, there will be explosions again.”
On January 24, 1979, all the accused were found guilty by the court and sentenced to capital punishment – execution. On January 30, the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR rejected the petition for clemency, and on the same day, the sentence was carried out.
The acts of terrorism carried out by Armenian nationalists have gone beyond the Soviet Union borders. In this respect,Turkish diplomats have become the target of terrorism. “Armenian terrorism, as well as its support in the larger Armenian community, was unique in its visceral hatred of its Turkish enemy” writes Michael M. Gunter in his book titled Armenian History and the Question of Genocide. As a result of the Armenian terror, more than 30 Turkish diplomats and their families have lost their lives since 1970.Most of these assassinations were mainly carried out by terrorist organizations, such as the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) and the Justice Commandos of the Armenian Genocide (JCAG).Both groups were founded in the mid-1970s and by the early 1980s had become extremely active.Despite both groups having disintegrated in the end of 1980s, an Armenian protester was spotted with an ASALA T-shirtin Los Angeles on July22, 2020.The ideology that feeds those terrorist organizations, which mainly operated in Western countries, is still alive. The main reason for their “success” in the West is that they have not been properly punished until now.
Furthermore,Armenian terrorist organizations systematically and deliberately perpetrated acts of terrorism on Azerbaijani territory, as well. On March 19, 1994, 14 civilians lost their lives and 49 were injured as a result of the bombed attack perpetrated at the “20 January” metro station in Baku.
To put it briefly, the terrorist tradition of the Armenian ultranationalists needs to be deeply and systematically studied. The root causes of violent extremism in Armenian society are complex, multifaceted and intertwined as it has more than 100 years of history. Armenians present their terrorists to future generations as heroes, leaving their statues and encouraging future generations to grow up as terrorists.A clear example of this is the monument erected in memory of members of the ASALA terrorist organization at the Yerablur State Military Cemetery in Yerevan, Armenia.Asidefrom that, the defeat on the front in the 44-day war with Azerbaijan correspondingly pushed Armenian society into a deep sense of collective frustration and humiliation; in turn, it triggered a rise in nationalist sentiments and made them more radicalized, which galvanize terrorist attacks against Azerbaijani people. Considering that, the intelligence services and law enforcement agencies of the countries, where both Azerbaijani and Armenian diaspora live, should expeditiously increase situational awareness.
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