With solid economic fundamentals, the Philippines is well-placed to speed up poverty reduction. The challenge is to provide more economic opportunities, which would help many more people earn higher and stable incomes.
These are among the key findings of the report titled Making Growth Work for the Poor: A Poverty Assessment for the Philippines released today by the World Bank.
From 2006 to 2015, the latest available data, the report says that robust economic growth helped the poverty rate in the Philippines to fall by 5 percentage points. Poverty declined from 26.6 percent in 2006 to 21.6 percent in 2015, due to factors like the expansion of jobs outside agriculture, government transfers, in particular to qualified poor Filipinos through the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program, and remittances.
“This experience gives us hope that the Philippines can overcome poverty,” said Mara K. Warwick, World Bank Country Director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. “With a strong economy, the country is well-placed to end the vicious cycles of unequal opportunity that trap people in poverty, set in place measures to improve service delivery, and boost job opportunities.”
In 2015, some 22 million Filipinos—more than one-fifth of the population—still live below the national poverty line. Constraints to achieving faster poverty reduction, according to the report, include the less pro-poor pattern of growth; high inequality of income and opportunities; and the adverse impacts of natural disasters and conflict.
Most poor Filipinos have low levels of education and live in large households headed by individuals who are self-employed or work in agriculture as laborers or smallholder producers. The poorest households are those dependent on agriculture as their main source of income and most of them live in the countryside, in areas prone to disasters or in the conflict-affected areas of Mindanao.
“Making a difference in Mindanao makes a big difference to the Philippines. Increasing public investment in Mindanao to boost development there would expand opportunities for conflict-affected communities, broaden access to services and create more and better jobs,” said Xubei Luo, Senior Economist at the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice.
Inequitable investment in human capital and insufficient well-paying job opportunities trap the poor in poverty across generations, the report explains. High concentrations of wealth constrain equal opportunities and access to services, which are necessary for inclusive growth. Natural disasters disproportionately and repeatedly batter the poorest regions of the country, miring them in higher levels of poverty.
The government has prepared strategic plans focused on reducing poverty, specifically AmBisyon 2040, a long-term vision to bring down poverty and improve the lives of the poorest segments of the population, and the Philippine Development Plan 2017–2022.
These plans target reducing poverty to 13 to 15 percent by 2022. To help achieve these targets, the Poverty Assessment recommends the following policy directions:
- Create more and better jobs;
- Improve productivity in all sectors, especially agriculture;
- Equip Filipinos with skills needed for the 21st century economy;
- Invest in health and nutrition;
- Focus poverty reduction efforts on Mindanao; and
- Manage disaster risks and protect the vulnerable.
Malaysia’s Economy Remains Resilient but Faces Global Headwinds
Malaysia’s economy is expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the near term, growing at 4.7 percent in 2019, according to the World Bank Malaysia Economic Monitor, launched today. But external factors, such as current trade tensions and increased volatility in financial and commodity markets, are weighing on Malaysia’s economy going forward.
A more uncertain external environment places a higher premium on reforms to boost resilience. Both the budget and the mid-term review of the government have specified a series of new goals and initiatives that can strengthen governance and transparency, improve public sector efficiency, and foster equitable growth.
“We are encouraged to see the Malaysian government taking measures to both preserve growth, restore fiscal buffers, and improve governance,” said Mara Warwick, Country Director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. “Such reforms will pay dividends over time, with efforts to improve not just the quantity of economic growth, but also of the quality of economic growth.”
Domestic demand continued to support the economy, with private consumption accelerating at 9.0 percent in Q3 2018 (Q2 2018: 8.0 percent) boosted by the removal of the Goods and Services Tax during that period. Momentum in private investment also grew from 6.1 percent in Q2 to 6.9 percent in Q3 2018, driven by the expansion in manufacturing and services sectors.
Restoring fiscal buffers will be crucial for the country to effectively respond to future shocks to the economy. Efforts to reform the role of the state in business would level the playing field and unlock future productivity growth. Reforms to increase the effectiveness of social safety nets have the potential to achieve greater impact with limited public resources.
This edition of the Malaysia Economic Monitor includes a special focus on human capital development. The main message of the special focus is that Malaysia will need to boost its human capital if it is to join the leading ranks of inclusive, high income nations. The World Bank’s Human Capital Index shows that in the absence of renewed efforts on human capital, a child born today in Malaysia will reach only 62 percent of potential, in terms of productivity and lifetime income.
Priority areas for improving human capital in Malaysia are learning and child nutrition. Due to limited learning in school, the 12.2 years of basic schooling expected for a child born today are equivalent to just 9.1 years in the highest performing systems—a learning gap of 3.1 years more than 1 in 5 children under age 5 is stunted, a key marker of child malnutrition, which limits cognitive development and opportunity throughout life.
The Malaysia Economic Monitor series provides an analytical perspective on the policy challenges facing Malaysia as it grows into a high-income and developed economy. The series also represents an effort to reach out to a broad audience, including policymakers, private sector leaders, civil society, and academia.
Global coal demand set to remain stable through 2023, despite headwinds
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as declines in Europe and North America are offset by strong growth in India and Southeast Asia, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest coal market report, Coal 2018.
Air quality and climate policies, coal divestment campaigns, phase-out announcements, declining costs of renewables and abundant supplies of natural gas are all putting pressure on coal. As a result, coal’s contribution to the global energy mix is forecast to decline slightly from 27% in 2017 to 25% by 2023.
But coal demand grows across much of Asia due to its affordability and availability. India sees the largest increase of any country, although the rate of growth, at 3.9% per year, is slowing, dampened by a large-scale expansion of renewables and the use of supercritical technology in new coal power plants. Significant increases in coal use are also expected in Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Pakistan.
Coal in China accounts for 14% of global primary energy, the largest around in the world. Developments in the Chinese coal sector have the potential to affect coal, gas and electricity prices across the world, for instance through inter-fuel substitution or regional arbitrage. This puts China’s coal sector at the centre of the global energy stage. While China accounts for nearly half of the world’s coal consumption, its clean-air measures are set to constrain Chinese coal demand going forward. We forecast Chinese coal demand to fall by around 3% over the period.
Meanwhile, in a growing number of countries, the phase out of coal-fired generation is a key policy goal. But market trends are proving resistant to change.
“The story of coal is a tale of two worlds with climate action policies and economic forces leading to closing coal power plants in some countries, while coal continues to play a part in securing access to affordable energy in others,” said Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA. “For many countries, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, it is looked upon to provide energy security and underpin economic development.”
This is why the IEA sees technologies like Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) as essential tools to bridge current and future energy needs with global and national climate ambitions. To help build a new momentum behind the technology, the IEA and the Government of the United Kingdom recently co-chaired an international summit where ministers, senior governmental officials across the world, CEOs from major energy companies and the financial community came together to identify practical steps to accelerate investment and deployment of CCUS.
“Tackling our long-term climate goals, addressing the urgent health impacts of air pollution and ensuring that more people around the world have access to energy will require an approach that marries strong policies with innovative technologies,” said Mr Sadamori. “It must rely on all available options – including more renewables, of course – but also greater energy efficiency, nuclear, CCUS, hydrogen, and more.”
Faster Transition to Clean Energy Would Bring Great Benefits to Poland
Scaling up renewable energy sources in Poland would benefit the economy, improve people’s health, and reduce serious environmental problems – including the worst air pollution among cities in Europe – says a new World Bank report, “Poland Energy Transition: The Path to Sustainability in the Electricity and Heating Sector.”
The report says that an ambitious target for Poland would be for the share of renewable energy in power generation to reach almost 50 percent by 2030 (versus 14 percent now) – with the share of coal dropping below 40 percent (versus 80 percent now). This transition would drastically lower air pollutants and CO2 emissions while costing the economy just seven percent more than the transition now planned by the Polish government. Furthermore, the local and global environmental benefits would fully compensate for these additional costs.
The most ambitious scenario set forth in the report could also lead to a 25 percent reduction (20,000 jobs) in direct coal mine jobs by 2030, however, it will be more than offset by potential 100,000 jobs a year created by improving the energy efficiency of homes in Poland. Active labor market policies can help mitigate impacts on jobs, which are expected to be negligible at the national level and modest at the local level, given a dynamic economy and tight labor market in the coal-producing Silesian region.
“Poland has already achieved success in decoupling economic growth from emissions. It has simultaneously increased its gross domestic product seven times and decreased its emissions in the electricity and heating sector by 30 percent since 1989”, says Carlos Piñerúa, World Bank Country Manager for Poland and the Baltic States.
“However, Poland’s heavy reliance on coal creates serious environmental problems and imposes heavy health costs on the population, who breathe polluted air. Our analysis shows that investing in renewables now would be good for people’s health as well as economically justified.”
The report acknowledges coal has contributed enormously to Poland’s economic and social development. Yet, European and global environmental trends mean that a transition to cleaner energy is inevitable and technological progress has made switching to cleaner energy affordable and cost-effective. Globally, the energy sector is moving toward sustainability, driven by economics, the need to reduce air pollution, and the national targets set as part of the Paris Agreement.
“More than 60 percent of Poland’s existing coal-fired power plants is over 30 years old. The replacement of these plants presents an opportunity to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions by shifting to cleaner sources,” says Xiaodong Wang, senior energy specialist at the World Bank and the author of the report.
“The decisions made today will strongly shape emissions in 30-40 years, so if Poland wants to put itself on a sustainable path, the time to act is now.”
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