Half a million brutally murdered, five million internally displaced, and another six million turned into refugees, willing to risk death to escape the nightmare that is their lives: Welcome to Syria in 2018.
Opposition to the Assad regime seems an almost Sisyphean task but the incomprehensible violence visited on the Syrian people is inconceivable without backing from Tehran.The Iranian regime’s sectarian policies, unflinching support for the Butcher of Damascus, and direct intervention in the Syrian conflict have prolonged Bashar al Assad’s heinous reign and facilitated the Syrian crisis.
But Tehran’s regional arc of influence doesn’t stop in Damascus – Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Gaza have also not been spared from Iranian-backed terror. Three years after the negotiation of the Iran nuclear deal, the regime continues to openly and defiantly develop ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. And though the main instigators have yet to suffer consequences, they have been fortified with cash by the West.
President Donald Trump’s latest condemnation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was the clearest acknowledgement to date that the Obama-era agreementonly ensured the continuation ofIran’s malevolent activities.With the announcement of the US withdrawal from the porous deal complete, those exulting the agreement as a panacea for achieving peace and stability shoulder the burden of proof. If the arrangement was so beneficial, why did anti-regime protests sweep the country? And why are Iranians so frustrated with their leaders?
Iranians demonstrated in more than 140 cities and towns throughout Iran just a few months ago. In these rallies, they chanted slogans like “death to Khamenei” and “death to Rouhani,” demonstrating to all those who would listen that they longed for real change, not cosmetic reform. By yelling “hardliner, reformer, the game is now over,” the aspirations of the Iranian people were given a voice.
In discussing the path forward, Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), observedthat “any future investment in this regime is doomed to failure” and that it “will only embolden the religious fascists’ warmongering, and export of fundamentalism and terrorism.”
In the lead up to his explosive announcement, Trump predicted that the Iranian regime will soon face bigger problems than ever. But these problems will not be the result of sanctions alone. Rather, they will come at the hands of the Iranian peoplewho poured into the streets in December and January and continue to express their demand for regime change through countless demonstrations and acts of defiance– big and small – against their clerical rulers.
By supporting democratic opposition groups, including the Peoples Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), the principal Iranian resistance movement, which organize massive rallies abroad and continues to demonstrate a considerable presence inside Iran as well, ordinary Iranians are participating in courageous acts of civil disobedience to promote change from within.
The Iranian regime has already tried to convinceFrench President Emmanuel Macron to stop harboring the group, and inside Iran they’ve been blamed as an instigator of unrest, lending credence to the notion that the regime is extremely concerned. Yet, the people power factor, driven by an Iranian majority that wants democracy and good relations with the West, remains underutilized.Western nations must better leverage theanti-regime sentiment to increase theinternal pressure on Tehran, thus making future deals more likely.
Trump deserves credit for dialing up the pressure on Tehran with his recent actions but, with a short window of just months before fresh sanctions hit in full force and oil companies depart, Trump must also use his leverage to address ballistic missile violations while simultaneously working to curtail the regime’s regional aggression. In the face of escalating foreign pressure, Tehran risks everything, including income for the IRCG’s business empire and the regime’s very grip on power at home.
This risk could be amplified by the resurgence of a domestic uprising, this time with the full-throated backing of the US and its allies. At the beginningof the Iranian New Year on March 20, Mrs. Rajavi predicted that the regime would soon be facing “a year full of uprisings” and that public demonstrations would continue until the people achieved their ultimate victory over the theocratic dictatorship.”
With the JCPOA acknowledged as a failure, the world can help secure this outcome. Doing so is the best way to resolve not only the nuclear issue but a range of other Middle East crises with Iran at their core.
By strengthening ties with the Iranian resistance, world leaders can clearly demonstrate their support for the Iranian people in their quest for a future free of tyranny. Iranians committed to freedom will gather in Paris on June 30 to outline that brighter future and build momentum for regime change from within.
In previous years the event has attracted upwards of one-hundred thousand Iranian expatriates and political supporters from throughout the world, including prominent figures such as John Bolton and Rudy Giuliani. This year’s event will be bigger than ever.
By making it clear that neither Iran’s nuclear program nor its malign regional activities will be tolerated, Western powers can reinforce the message that they are prepared to challenge the status quo.By casting their lot with those gathered in Paris, world leaders will signal those on the Iranian Street that they deserve a better deal from the West and better treatment by their leaders.
Turkey and the time bomb in Syria
The Turkish attack on northern Syria has provided conditions for ISIS militants held in camps in the region to escape and revitalize themselves.
Turkey launched “Operation Peace Spring” on Wednesday October 9, claiming to end the presence of terrorists near its borders in northern Syria. Some countries condemned this illegal action of violation of the Syrian sovereignty.
The military attack has exacerbated the Syrian people’s living condition who live in these areas. On the other hand, it has also allowed ISIS forces to escape and prepare themselves to resume their actions in Syria. Before Turkish incursion into northern Syria, There were many warnings that the incursion would prepare the ground for ISIS resurgence. But ignoring the warning, Turkey launched its military attacks.
Currently, about 11,000 ISIS prisoners are held in Syria. ISIS has claimed the responsibility for two attacks on Qamishli and Hasakah since the beginning of Turkish attacks.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump said that Turkey and the Kurds must stop ISIS prisoners from fleeing. He urged European countries to take back their citizens who have joined ISIS.
It should be noted that the U.S. is trying to prove that ISIS has become stronger since the U.S. troops pulled out before the Turkish invasion, and to show that Syria is not able to manage the situation. But this fact cannot be ignored that ISIS militants’ escape and revival were an important consequence of the Turkish attack.
Turkish troops has approached an important city in the northeast and clashed with Syrian forces. These events provided the chance for hundreds of ISIS members to escape from a camp in Ayn Issa near a U.S.-led coalition base.
The camp is located 35 kilometers on the south of Syria-Turkey border, and about 12,000 ISIS members, including children and women, are settled there. The Kurdish forces are said to be in charge of controlling these prisoners.
Media reports about the ISIS resurgence in Raqqa, the former ISIS stronghold, cannot be ignored, as dozens of terrorists have shot Kurdish police forces in this city. The terrorists aimed to occupy the headquarters of the Kurdish-Syrian security forces in the center of Raqqa. One of the eyewitnesses said the attack was coordinated, organized and carried out by several suicide bombers, but failed.
In response to Turkey’s invasion of Syria, the Kurds have repeatedly warned that the attack will lead to release of ISIS elements in the region. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyib Erdogan denied the reports about the escape of ISIS prisoners and called them “lies”.
European officials fear that ISIS prisoners with European nationality, who have fled camps, will come back to their countries.
Kurdish forces are making any effort to confront Turkish troops in border areas, so their presence and patrol in Raqqa have been reduced.
Interestingly, the Turkish military bombarded one of temporary prisons and caused ISIS prisoners escaping. It seems that ISIS-affiliated covert groups have started their activities to seize the control of Raqqa. These groups are seeking to rebuild their so-called caliphate, as Kurdish and Syrian forces are fighting to counter the invading Turkish troops. Families affiliated with ISIS are held in Al-Hol camp, under the control of Kurdish forces. At the current situation, the camp has turned into a time bomb that could explode at any moment. Under normal circumstances, there have been several conflicts between ISIS families in the camp, but the current situation is far worse than before.
There are more than 3,000 ISIS families in the camp and their women are calling for establishment of the ISIS caliphate. Some of SDF forces have abandoned their positions, and decreased their watch on the camp.
The danger of the return of ISIS elements is so serious, since they are so pleased with the Turkish attack and consider it as an opportunity to regain their power. There are pictures of ISIS wives in a camp in northern Syria, under watch of Kurdish militias, showing how happy they are about the Turkish invasion.
In any case, the Turkish attack, in addition to all the military, political and human consequences, holds Ankara responsible for the escape of ISIS militants and preparing the ground for their resurgence.
Currently, the camps holding ISIS and their families are like time bombs that will explode if they all escape. Covert groups affiliated with the terrorist organization are seeking to revive the ISIS caliphate and take further actions if the Turkish attacks continue. These attacks have created new conflicts in Syria and undermined Kurdish and Syrian power to fight ISIS.
From our partner Tehran Times
The Turkish Gambit
The only certainty in war is its intrinsic uncertainty, something Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could soon chance upon. One only has to look back on America’s topsy-turvy fortunes in Iraq, Afghanistan and even Syria for confirmation.
The Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria has as its defined objective a buffer zone between the Kurds in Turkey and in Syria. Mr. Erdogan hopes, to populate it with some of the 3 million plus Syrian refugees in Turkey, many of these in limbo in border camps. The refugees are Arab; the Kurds are not.
Kurds speak a language different from Arabic but akin to Persian. After the First World War, when the victors parceled up the Arab areas of the Ottoman Empire, Syria came to be controlled by the French, Iraq by the British, and the Kurdish area was divided into parts in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, not forgetting the borderlands in Iran — a brutal division by a colonial scalpel severing communities, friends and families. About the latter, I have some experience, having lived through the bloody partition of India into two, and now three countries that cost a million lives.
How Mr. Erdogan will persuade the Arab Syrian refugees to live in an enclave, surrounded by hostile Kurds, some ethnically cleansed from the very same place, remains an open question. Will the Turkish army occupy this zone permanently? For, we can imagine what the Kurds will do if the Turkish forces leave.
There is another aspect of modern conflict that has made conquest no longer such a desirable proposition — the guerrilla fighter. Lightly armed and a master of asymmetric warfare, he destabilizes.
Modern weapons provide small bands of men the capacity and capability to down helicopters, cripple tanks, lay IEDs, place car bombs in cities and generally disrupt any orderly functioning of a state, tying down large forces at huge expense with little chance of long term stability. If the US has failed repeatedly in its efforts to bend countries to its will, one has to wonder if Erdogan has thought this one through.
The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 is another case in point. Forever synonymous with the infamous butchery at Sabra and Shatila by the Phalange militia facilitated by Israeli forces, it is easy to forget a major and important Israeli goal: access to the waters of the Litani River which implied a zone of occupation for the area south of it up to the Israeli border.
Southern Lebanon is predominantly Shia and at the time of the Israeli invasion they were a placid group who were dominated by Christians and Sunni, even Palestinians ejected from Israel but now armed and finding refuge in Lebanon. It was when the Israelis looked like they were going to stay that the Shia awoke. It took a while but soon their guerrillas were harassing Israeli troops and drawing blood. The game was no longer worth the candle and Israel, licking its wounds, began to withdraw ending up eventually behind their own border.
A colossal footnote is the resurgent Shia confidence, the buildup into Hezbollah and new political power. The Hezbollah prepared well for another Israeli invasion to settle old scores and teach them a lesson. So they were ready, and shocked the Israelis in 2006. Now they are feared by Israeli troops.
To return to the present, it is not entirely clear as to what transpired in the telephone call between Erdogan and Trump. Various sources confirm Trump has bluffed Erdogan in the past. It is not unlikely then for Trump to have said this time, “We’re leaving. If you go in, you will have to police the area. Don’t ask us to help you.” Is that subject to misinterpretation? It certainly is a reminder of the inadvertent green light to Saddam Hussein for the invasion of Kuwait when Bush Senior was in office.
For the time being Erdogan is holding fast and Trump has signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Turkish officials and institutions. Three Turkish ministers and the Defense and Energy ministries are included. Trump has also demanded an immediate ceasefire. On the economic front, he has raised tariffs on steel back to 50 percent as it used to be before last May. Trade negotiations on a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey have also been halted forthwith. The order also includes the holding of property of those sanctioned, as well as barring entry to the U.S.
Meanwhile, the misery begins all over again as thousands flee the invasion area carrying what they can. Where are they headed? Anywhere where artillery shells do not rain down and the sound of airplanes does not mean bombs.
Such are the exigencies of war and often its surprising consequences.
Author’s Note: This piece appeared originally on Counterpunch.org
Could Turkish aggression boost peace in Syria?
On October 7, 2019, the U.S. President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of American troops from northeast Syria, where the contingent alongside Kurdish militias controlled the vast territories. Trump clarified that the decision is connected with the intention of Turkey to attack the Kurdish units, posing a threat to Ankara.
It’s incredible that the Turkish military operation against Kurds – indeed the territorial integrity of Syria has resulted in the escape of the U.S., Great Britain, and France. These states essentially are key destabilizing components of the Syrian crisis.
Could this factor favourably influence the situation in the country? For instance, after the end of the Iraqi war in 2011 when the bulk of the American troops left the country, the positive developments took place in the lives of all Iraqis. According to World Economics organization, after the end of the conflict, Iraq’s GDP grew by 14% in 2012, while during the U.S. hostilities the average GDP growth was about 5,8%.
Syria’s GDP growth should also be predicted. Not right away the withdrawal of U.S., French, British, and other forces, but a little bit later after the end of the Turkish operation that is not a phenomenon. The Turkish-Kurdish conflict has been going on since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire when Kurds started to promote the ideas of self-identity and independence. Apart from numerous human losses, the Turks accomplished nothing. It is unlikely that Ankara would achieve much in Peace Spring operation. The Kurds realize the gravity of the situation and choose to form an alliance with the Syrian government that has undermined the ongoing Turkish offensive.
Under these circumstances, Erdogan could only hope for the creation of a narrow buffer zone on the Syrian-Turkish border. The withdrawal of the Turkish forces from the region is just a matter of time. However, we can safely say that the Turkish expansion unwittingly accelerated the peace settlement of the Syrian crisis, as the vital destabilizing forces left the country. Besides, the transfer of the oil-rich north-eastern regions under the control of Bashar Assad will also contribute to the early resolution of the conflict.
It remains a matter of conjecture what the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia agreed on during the high-level talks. Let’s hope that not only the Syrians, but also key Gulf states are tired of instability and tension in the region, and it’s a high time to strive for a political solution to the Syrian problem.
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