Historically Pakistan sought to maintain the policy of neutrality or balance between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In this regard, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy long term strategic ties backed by various economic, defence and military to military cooperation agreements, not to mention the religious affinities that underscore these ties. To be sure, Pakistan has also been very conscious of Iran’s genuine concerns when it comes to managing its ties with Saudi Arabia and at the same time has been making great strides in enhancing the spectrum of cooperation with Iran. Pakistan’s refusal to accept Saudi request to send troops to the costly Yemen war is usually taken as an important example of Pakistan’s commitment to the policy of neutrality. At present, the complexity of the triad has further been increased by Saudi-Israel growing rapprochement. Thus, in order to understand the dynamics and the future trajectory of the triad and Pakistan’s role in it, an important element that needs careful consideration and study is Saudi-Israel growing cordiality and their perception of the changing dynamics on the conflict ridden geo-political landscape of the Middle East.
The triad countries i.e. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan have no formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Their opposition to the state of Israel in Palestine largely stems from religious, humanitarian and legal considerations and the fact that the Israeli occupation forces have left many Palestinians homeless in their own home through illegal settlements, brutal use of force and territorial expansion. Not only the 1967 Arab-Israel war but the recent US decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in manifestation of a major departure from traditional US approach to the issue and violation of relevant UN resolutions do not provide adequate reasons for Arab Muslim world and Pakistan to look for any cordial ties with Israel either.
Paradoxically, despite being the ‘Guardian’ of Islam’s two holy mosques and a long champion of Palestine cause, Saudi ruling elite in recent times have become more overt and accommodative in their dealings with Israel or for that matter the US among others on Palestine issue. The general view about this development is that Saudi Arabia seeks modernization and diversification on economic and defence front. Saudi de facto ruler and Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman’s move to de-link religion from politics by affording more personal freedoms to the citizens explains this pragmatism.
Indeed, his assertive regional policy has led the kingdom into seemingly intractable competition for power and influence in the region with the other regional giant Iran in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon etc. Thus, in the absence of any considerable indigenous military industrial base and prowess, Saudi Arabia is compelled to look for multiple partners and options to sustain its influence at a time when the geopolitical landscape of Middle East witnesses declining hegemony of the long term ally i.e. the US and rising influence of Russia and Iran. As a result, Saudi Arabia considers cooperation with Israel a logical response in the light of its capacity for providing hi-tech military hardware to Saudi Arabia not to mention its enmity towards regional antagonist Iran and influence in the US policy making circles.
As for Pakistan and Iran, there are no prospects of good relations with Israel in the near future at least. This presents a stark picture in the light of current trends in Saudi-Israel relations indicating that the two countries have gone a long away to establish various channels of interaction and cooperation overtly or covertly to gain mutual interests.
The foremost reason that drives Saudi Arabia and Israel closer together is no doubt remains their shared threat perception of Iran. In recent times, Iran appears to have prevailed in various theatres of conflicts including in Syria where it backs Bashar al Assad regime along with Russia. Both Saudi-Arabia and Israel consider Iran’s growing influence in the region as a severe blow to security and strategic interests. The two countries are also reported to have been in cooperation to contain Iran’s rising influence through intelligence sharing. Statements of various Saudi and Israeli officials are testament to this fact. Indeed, by gaining a level of working relation with Saudi Arabia, Israel seeks to concretize its occupation of Palestine while at the same time continuing with its atrocious policies against the Palestinians.
In this complex web of things, Pakistan is confronted with a delicate situation. Because Pakistan’s perception of Israel is not only shaped by the latter’s abominable treatment of Palestinians but also by its strategic ties with Pakistan’s arch rival India and the US. Keeping these facts in view, if we are to assume a conflict situation involving Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel, Pakistan’s policy of balance between Iran and Saudi Arabia comes under considerable strain. This inevitably has some implications for Pakistan’s policy of balance and creates strategic anxiety in Islamabad.
Therefore, keeping in view this background it is established that Pakistan’s policy of balance in the turbulent region of Middle East is increasingly under threat owning to the implicit Saudi overtures to Israel. In this context, Pakistan should keep its dialogue channels open to all sides.