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Mongolia’s Economic Recovery to Continue in 2018 and 2019

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Mongolia’s economic growth will remain solid in 2018 and 2019, albeit with slight moderation, following a strong performance in 2017 as coal exports and mining investments strengthened, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

In its latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018, ADB projects Mongolia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to moderate to 3.8% in 2018 before rising again to 4.3% in 2019 from the 5.1% growth in 2017. This is following the 1.2% growth in 2016. Continued investment in mining, particularly in the development of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine, will continue to drive growth. Transportation bottlenecks, however, will prevent coal exports from matching 2017 performance, although these will ease somewhat in 2019.

“Mongolia’s growth prospects remain solid for 2018 and 2019,” said Yolanda Fernandez Lommen, ADB Country Director for Mongolia. “Sustained investment into the mining sector will form a basis for continued growth. The strong performance against the International Monetary Fund program is helping to restore investor confidence and improve macroeconomic stability. Continued government commitment to this program will be key in ensuring that macroeconomic buffers are built up, reducing Mongolia’s vulnerability to boom-bust cycles in the future. This will be critical to ensure that the investment into Mongolia’s mineral wealth forms a backbone of sustainable and inclusive growth while the conditions are created to support economic diversification and higher productivity growth.”

Inflation will accelerate to 8% in 2018 and ease to 7% in 2019, from the 4.3% recorded in 2017 following the 24.7% depreciation of the Mongolian togrog in 2016, which affected import prices on top of higher commodity prices due to drought and higher excise taxes. Rising domestic demand and international oil and food prices, coupled with the effects of looser monetary policy in 2017, will continue to drive inflation higher in 2018. These effects will be less pronounced in 2019 as oil prices and domestic demand subside.

Mongolia’s budget deficit is projected to equal 6.4% of GDP in 2018 and 5.1% in 2019, from 3.9% of GDP in 2017, as expenditure on social insurance, welfare, and equipment increases, coupled with a likely reduction in budget revenue as reforms to ease reporting requirements and the tax burden for small and medium-sized enterprises take place. A sharp recovery in foreign direct investment, financial support from multilateral development partners, and better terms of trade allowed the country to refinance a major part of its external debt. Gross reserves more than doubled, reaching 5.5 months of imports. These developments pushed the value of the togrog up by 2.5% against the US dollar. The current account deficit will narrow to 6.3% in 2018 before widening to 7% in 2019.

Downside risks to the outlook include lower coal and copper prices, disruptions to the successful implementation of the extended fund facility, higher meat prices, interruptions to Oyu Tolgoi production or investment, and worsening financial instability arising from the bank restructuring program. Upside risks to growth include higher commodity prices and a possible deal on large infrastructure projects tied to existing mining production.

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Women in leadership bring better business performance

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Businesses with genuine gender diversity, particularly at senior level, perform better, including seeing significant profit increases, according to a new report from the Bureau for Employers’ Activities  of the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The report, Women in Business and Management: The business case for change , surveyed almost 13,000 enterprises in 70 countries. More than 57 per cent of respondents agreed that gender diversity initiatives improved business outcomes. Almost three-quarters of those companies that tracked gender diversity in their management reported profit increases of between 5 and 20 per cent, with the majority seeing increases of between 10 and 15 per cent.

Almost 57 per cent said it was easier to attract and retain talent. More than 54 per cent said they saw improvements in creativity, innovation and openness and a similar proportion said effective gender inclusivity enhanced their company’s reputation, while almost 37 per cent felt it enabled them to more effectively gauge customer sentiment.

The report also found that, at national level, an increase in female employment is positively associated with GDP growth. The finding is based on an analysis of data from 186 countries for the period 1991-2017.

“We expected to see a positive correlation between gender diversity and business success, but these results are eye-opening,” said Deborah France-Massin, Director of the ILO Bureau for Employers’ Activities. “When you consider the efforts companies make in other areas to get just an extra two or three per cent in profits, the significance is clear. Companies should look at gender balance as a bottom line issue, not just a human resource issue.”

Gender balance in senior management is defined as 40-60 per cent of either gender, the same as in the general workforce. The report says that the beneficial effects of gender diversity begin to accrue when women hold 30 per cent of senior management and leadership positions. However, almost 60 per cent of enterprises do not meet this target, meaning they struggle to reap the rewards. In addition, in almost half of companies surveyed, women account for less than one in three of their entry-level management recruits – meaning that the pipeline to senior management may not deliver the talent needed.

Almost three-quarters of the enterprises surveyed had equal opportunity or diversity and inclusion policies, however, the report says more specific actions are needed to ensure that women are visible and promoted to strategic areas of business.

Some key factors preventing women reaching decision-making positions were identified. Enterprise cultures that require “anytime, anywhere” availability disproportionately affect women, relative to their household and family responsibilities, while policies that support inclusivity and work-life balance (for both men and women), such as flexible working hours and paternity leave, need to be improved.

Another factor is the “leaky pipeline”, the tendency for the proportion of women to decline as the management grade rises. The “glass wall” describes the incidence of women managers in roles such as HR, finance and administration that are considered less strategic and less likely to lead to chief executive and boardroom positions. Fewer than a third of enterprises surveyed had achieved the critical mass of one third of women board members. Around one in eight reported they still had all-male boardrooms. More than 78 per cent of enterprises who responded had male CEO’s, and those with female CEO’s were more likely to be small enterprises.

“The business case for getting more women into management is compelling,” said France-Massin. “In an era of skill shortages, women represent a formidable talent pool that companies aren’t making enough of. Smart companies who want to be successful in the global economy should make genuine gender diversity a key ingredient of their business strategy. Representative business organizations and employer and business membership organizations must take a lead, promoting both effective policies and genuine implementation.”

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Advanced economies still have plenty of work to do to reach Sustainable Development Goals

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With only 11 years left to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, some of the most economically advanced countries have still not met targets in areas like poverty reduction, youth employment, education and training, gender equality and numerical literacy, according to a new OECD report.

Measuring Distance to the SDG Targets 2019: An Assessment of Where OECD Countries Stand finds that in most OECD countries there is widespread access to electricity, mobile networks and basic sanitation. Countries have met targets for maternal and infant mortality; and are making progress in reducing deaths from AIDS, TB, Hepatitis B, and road accidents. They are also cutting smoking and gradually adopting renewable energy sources. Yet, OECD countries are still leaving many people behind, and are struggling to reach the targets related to gender equality and to reducing inequality. Even more worrisome, some countries are moving in the wrong direction on some targets, with worsening performance since 2005.

In particular, medium-term GDP growth and productivity growth are on the wane in many countries. One in seven people in the OECD area live in poverty, and one in four 15-year-olds and adults lack basic numerical competency. Obesity and unemployment have been rising in one third of OECD countries since 2005, and in 13 countries vaccination coverage is dropping, risking outbreaks of diseases thought to have been eradicated. The number of threatened species is on the rise in two thirds of OECD countries.

“The SDGs and the 2030 Agenda objective of leaving no one behind are our promise and our responsibility to future generations. Unfortunately we are very far from being able to declare Mission Accomplished,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, launching the report at the start of the annual OECD Week. “We must all redouble our efforts, with countries working together to make sure that the goals are achieved within the deadline that the international community set four years ago. We owe it to our children and to our planet.”

The report uses a unique methodology that enables a comparison of countries’ progress and data gaps across the 17 SDG Goals and the specific targets that underpin them, using the UN Global List of 244 indicators as a starting point. It also finds that over half the 2030 targets involve a transboundary effect, meaning that achieving them in one country will have an impact in others or on global goods, such as climate.

Key findings in the report include:

  • Around 14% of the OECD population lives in relative poverty, far from the goal of halving poverty rates (half of the median rate in OECD countries is 5.5%).  
  • Across the OECD, 14% of youths are not in education, employment or training. Rates are above 20% in Italy and Turkey, and are at least 17% in Chile, Mexico and Spain.
  • Women hold fewer than one-third of seats in national parliaments on average in the OECD, with no country achieving the target level (i.e. equal representation).
  • Official development assistance (ODA) is still running at less than half the UN target of 0.7% of national income.
  • Some 6% of women across the OECD report having been subjected to violence by a partner in the last 12 months [and as high as 11% in some countries]. This is far from the target to eliminate all forms of violence against women and girls.
  • Significant data gaps for the UN Global List of indicators mean that performance on more than one-third of the SDG targets cannot be assessed in OECD countries. Environment goals contain some of the biggest data gaps. 

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Data Collaboration for the Common Good

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Delivering on the promise of public-private data collaboration for the common good requires attention in five priority areas according to a new report, Data Collaboration for the Common Good, published by the World Economic Forum today.

The report, done in collaboration with McKinsey and Company, represents a year-long effort with business, government, civil society leaders, experts and practitioners to advance public-private data collaboration to address some of the world’s most pressing humanitarian and sustainable development challenges.

The linking, connecting and sharing of data has emerged as one of the primary factors shaping today’s digital economy. From 2017 to 2019, the number of companies forming data-related partnerships has risen from 21% to 40%. Against this backdrop, the report provides an evidence base of use cases of data collaboration for the common good as well as pragmatic tools for strengthening stakeholder trust.

“Having experienced the positive impact of public-private data collaboration in improving the epidemic readiness in South Korea myself, I sincerely believe in the promising future that public-private data collaboration will lead us into,” said Dr. Chang-Gyu Hwang, Chairman and CEO of KT. “I would like to encourage more world leaders and thinkers to join World Economic Forum’s effort to make lasting and fundamental changes for humanity with trustworthy data and data collaboration.”

The report provides a holistic governance framework designed to strengthen trust, balance competing interests and deliver impact. It offers insights to balance both the need to innovate in the use of data and the mandate to protect vulnerable populations against known and emerging harms.

“Data holds great promise as a transformative resource for social good,” notes JoAnn Stonier, Chief Data Officer, Mastercard.

The report identifies five key areas for action, across the data collaborative lifecycle:

Stakeholder alignment – Ensure stakeholders commit to intended outcomes by conducting rigorous due diligence to ensure commitment and resource availability

Responsible data governance – Build a secure, resilient and fit-for-purpose governance and technical infrastructure and invest in comprehensive data-impact assessments to identify and manage the risks to vulnerable populations and communities.

Insight generation and validation – Verify the provenance, completeness and accuracy of data inputs and establish effective governance processes on how packaged data products/services will be used to make decisions in the field.

Insight adoption – Invest in last-mile implementation capacities and the leadership to create a data culture within organizations with

Economic sustainability and scalability – Look beyond early stage data philanthropy and donor underwriting to create sustainable economic models.

Given the likelihood and severity of disease outbreaks and natural disasters resulting from climate change, the report calls for a greater focus on how private sector data can be used for epidemic readiness and natural disaster preparedness.

“Public-private data collaboration is foundational for building a shared digital future that is more inclusive, trustworthy and sustainable,” notes Derek O’Halloran, Head of the Future of Digital Economy and Society, World Economic Forum. “This new report provides pragmatic approaches for using private sector data to deliver faster decision-making during natural disasters, a better understanding for how to be ready for epidemics and new ways to measure progress on achieving the SDGs.”

Project advisors and participants include representatives from Bayer, Cloudera Foundation, Dharma AI, Digital Impact Alliance, Edelman, Facebook, Flowminder, Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data, GovLab, Harvard University, Kaiser Permanente, KT Corporation, MIT, Mastercard, MERL Tech, NetHope Inc., New York Presbyterian, Nielsen, SAP, Sustainable Development Solutions Network, University of Washington, UN Global Pulse, UNOCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data, Verizon Communications, World Bank.

Key Priorities Across the Public-Private Data Collaboration Lifecycle

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