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Norway should do more to improve job prospects of low-skilled youth

MD Staff

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Norway should step up its efforts to boost the job prospects of young people without upper-secondary qualification to further reduce the share of under-30 year-olds who are Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEETs), according to a new OECD report.

Investing in Youth: Norway says that labour market conditions of young people in Norway are generally favourable, with more 15-29 year-olds employed than the OECD average (59% vs 52%). The youth employment trend is declining, however, as the number of job opportunities for them has failed to match the rapidly increasing youth population, which rose by 18% between 2007 and 2016. Immigration accounted for over four-fifths of this increase.

Nearly one-in-ten (9%) young people – 86 000 of all 15-to-29 year-olds – were NEET in 2016, two percentage points higher than in 2008. Nearly two-thirds of NEETs were not actively looking for work. More efforts are needed to help NEETs, particularly inactive youth, according to the report.

Norwegian NEETs tend to be more disadvantaged than in other OECD countries. More than half (56%) have not completed upper-secondary education and young people born abroad are more than twice as likely to be NEETs as their Norwegian-born peers. NEETs are also nine times more likely to be of poor health and six times more likely to feel depressed than other young people.

Combatting early school leaving has been a policy priority in Norway for decades but almost one-in-five (19%) 25-34 year-olds do not have an upper-secondary qualification, well above the OECD average of 16%. Early school leaving is especially common among students in vocational education and training (VET), with only 63% graduating within two years of the end of the regular programme, compared to 72% in Sweden or 80% in Austria.

The first two years of VET are mostly school-based and many students then struggle to find an apprenticeship place with a firm for the next two years. Employers are often reluctant to take on apprentices as most students only have limited job-specific skills and apprentice remuneration is also comparatively generous.

The “New Youth Effort”, which replaced Norway’s “Youth Guarantee” in 2017, has the potential to improve employment opportunities for NEETs. For this new policy framework to be effective, its implementation through the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration NAV needs to be systematically monitored, however, and additional funding for employment programmes may be needed.

The report also recommends that Norway take further steps to reduce receipt of incapacity-related benefits among yong people, which – in spite of recent reforms – is the highest across all OECD countries.

Among the report’s recommendations to help young people in Norway into work are to:

Align VET provision more closely with labour market demand by bringing forward specialisation in the school-based part of VET and combining school- and work-based training from day one.

Continue expanding lower-level VET tracks to enable academically weak or practically minded young people to attain a qualification.

Ensure rigorous work capacity assessments and better gatekeeping for disability benefits through clearer guidelines to NAV staff and general practitioners and better compliance monitoring.

Devote additional resources to supporting young Social Assistance recipients with mental health problems and little work experience.

Re-assess the strong reliance on work experience measures for young jobseekers, whose effectiveness have been questioned by a number of recent evaluation studies.

Expand the use of training programmes for jobseekers to include vocational training for low-skilled jobseekers and Norwegian-language classes for migrant jobseekers.

Facilitate data exchange between the educational authorities and NAV to permit NAV caseworkers to better follow up on their users and observe their transitions into education and training.

Make rigorous impact evaluations a pre-requisite for national funding for educational, employment and social-support programmes for NEETs.

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Economy

Deeper reforms in Korea will ensure more inclusive and sustainable growth

MD Staff

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Short-term prospects for the Korean economy are good, with an uptick in world trade and fiscal policy driving growth, but productivity remains relatively low and the country faces the most rapid population ageing in the OECD area, according to a new report from the OECD.

The latest OECD Economic Survey of Korea looks at recent economic developments, as well as the challenges to ensure that the benefits are shared by all. The Survey projects growth of about 3% for the 2018-19 period, and lays out an agenda for ensuring broader-based and more inclusive growth going forward.

The Survey, presented in Sejong by the head of the OECD Korea/Japan Desk, Randall Jones, highlights the need for new policies to help the government overhaul the traditional export-led growth model and to promote innovation led by SMEs and start-ups. It discusses reforms to the large business groups (chaebols), to achieve higher productivity and more inclusive growth, and proposes policies to enhance dynamism in SMEs and boost entrepreneurship. It also outlines the key challenges for reaching higher levels of well-being.

“Korea has rebounded after several years of sub-par growth, and the expansion is expected to continue,” Mr Jones said. “However, the traditional economic model of manufacturing and export-led growth is running out of steam. The challenge going forward will be to develop a new growth model that addresses today’s economic and social polarisation and leads to a more sustainable and inclusive economy for all Koreans.”

Despite the important role of the large business groups in Korea’s economic growth, the Survey says that a more balanced economy with larger roles for services and SMEs would promote inclusive and sustainable growth. The Survey suggests that strengthening product market competition, by relaxing barriers to imports and inward foreign direct investment and liberalising product market regulation, would reduce rent-seeking behaviour by large firms. Corporate governance reform is also necessary.

Beyond chaebol reform, the Survey identifies measures that would enhance dynamism and productivity growth in SMEs, including regulatory reforms, better access to credit, changes to the insolvency framework and improvements to the vocational education system.

The Survey proposes a range of potential reforms to boost well-being in Korea, including measures to expand female employment; labour market reforms to break down the segmentation between regular and non-regular workers; policies to reduce elderly poverty; and the use of economic instruments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution.

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Economy

Extending people’s working lives could add US$3.5 trillion to OECD GDP in long run

MD Staff

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Extending people’s working lives to reflect the ageing of their populations could release massive untapped value for their economies to the tune of US$3.5 trillion across the OECD as a whole in the long run.

Iceland, New Zealand and Israel are the leaders in boosting employment rates among older workers, setting a model for others to follow, according to the latest research by PwC.

Between 2015 and 2050, it’s estimated that the number of people aged 55 and above in the 35 OECD countries will increase by almost 50% to over 500 million. But how many of these half a billion people will be working?

PwC’s Golden Age Index benchmarks, ranks and analyses the performance of OECD countries in fostering older people’s participation in the workforce through employment and training data. It reveals how large potential economic gains are available if employment rates for those over 55 can be raised to those of the top performers.

Current employment rates for workers aged 55-64 vary dramatically across the OECD, from 84% in Iceland and 78% in New Zealand to 38% in Greece and 34% in Turkey.

For example, increasing the over-55 employment rate to New Zealand levels could deliver a long-run economic boost worth around US$815 billion in the US, US$406 billion in France and US$123 billion in Japan – with the total potential gain across the OECD adding up to around US$3.5 trillion. This economic uplift would be combined with significant social and health benefits from older people leading more active lives and having higher self-worth through continuing to work where they wish to do so.

John Hawksworth, Chief Economist at PwC UK, comments:

“Of course, it’s good news that we’re living longer. But an ageing population is already putting significant financial pressure on health, social care and pension systems, and this will only increase over time. To help offset these higher costs, we think older workers should be encouraged and supported to remain in the workforce for longer. This would increase GDP, consumer spending power and tax revenues, while also helping to improve the health and wellbeing of older people by keeping them mentally and physically active.”

For governments, ways to realise these benefits include reforming pension systems and providing other financial incentives to encourage later retirement – steps that several countries are already prioritising.

Significantly, the top-performing countries on the Index tend to share a number of characteristics, including a labour market that supports flexible working and the implementation of reforms targeted at older workers, such as redesigning jobs to meet physical needs. Successful policy measures include increasing the retirement age, supporting flexible working, improving the flexibility of pensions, and providing further training and support help older workers become ‘digital adopters’.

To help governments take the right actions, PwC has used this year’s update of the Golden Age Index to carry out a rigorous statistical analysis of the underlying drivers of higher employment rates for older workers across 35 OECD countries.

The findings from this analysis include that financial incentives like pension policy and family benefits can influence people’s decision to stay employed, and that longer life expectancy is associated with longer working lives. The study also shows that flexible working and partial retirement options can pay dividends for employers, as can redesign of factories, offices and roles to meet the changing needs and preferences of older workers.

A further area that the latest Golden Age Index examines concerns the implications for older workers of rising use of artificial intelligence (AI) and related automation technologies in the workplace. It finds that these technologies raise both potential opportunities and challenges for the over-55s.

Up to 20% of the existing jobs of older workers could be at risk of automation over the next decade, so retraining and lifelong learning will be critical to enable older workers to take up the many new job opportunities that AI and related technologies will create.

PwC UK Chief Economist John Hawksworth explains: “AI technology can boost economic growth, generate more labour demand and support longer working lives, for example through the use of digital platforms that allow older workers to market their skills more widely. However, our estimates suggest that older workers do face a higher risk of job automation compared to other age groups, with up to 20% of the existing jobs of over-55s at potential risk of automation over the next decade. Measures to support lifetime learning and retraining for older workers will be critical to maximising the gains from these technologies while mitigating the costs.”

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Economy

Further reforms needed for a stronger and more integrated Europe

MD Staff

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The European economy is growing robustly, helped by accommodative monetary policy, mildly expansionary fiscal policy and the global acceleration. The current economic expansion should be used to speed up implementation of reforms to the euro area architecture and EU policies that would support greater European integration and ensure stronger, more inclusive long-term growth, according to two new reports from the OECD.

The latest OECD Economic Survey of the European Union and Economic Survey of the Euro Area look at the factors behind the strong recovery, as well as the challenges facing Europe. The Surveys project growth topping 2% for the 2018-19 period, and lay out an agenda for boosting long-term growth and living standards across Europe.

The Surveys, presented in Brussels by OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, highlight the need for EU budget reform, more efficient cohesion policies to reduce regional divides and further efforts to deepen the single market. The OECD also discusses how completing the banking union, creating a common fiscal support scheme and simplifying fiscal rules would strengthen the euro area by making it more resilient to economic shocks.

“After years of crisis, positive economic momentum has taken hold across Europe,” Mr Gurría said. “Growth continues at a solid pace, and has broadened across sectors and countries. The conditions are right for a new wave of reforms to revive the European project and ensure that the benefits are shared by all.”

The Surveys say that macroeconomic policy must be tailored to support economic expansion while reducing imbalances. Monetary policy should remain accommodative until inflation is durably back to the objective, even as the ECB prepares for a very gradual normalisation of its policy. With an economic expansion under way, governments should reduce debt-to-GDP ratios. Simplified fiscal rules and a stronger focus on expenditure growth should help achieve this objective without derailing the recovery.

Ensuring the stability of the monetary union and enhancing the common currency’s resilience to downturns will be critical to future economic progress. More risk sharing will be necessary. The Survey calls for a European unemployment reinsurance scheme to cope with economic shocks too large to be dealt with solely by national fiscal policies or monetary policy. Reforms to develop the capital markets union along with a rapid reduction of non-performing loans are also important to allow a better functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union.

Additional reforms to complete the banking union are also necessary, in particular the setting up of a common European deposit-insurance scheme and using the European Stability Mechanism as a backstop for the Single Resolution Fund; both reforms would help prevent any future banking crisis developing into a sovereign debt crisis. The introduction of additional capital charges for banks holding high levels of government debt from their own country should occur alongside the creation of a new European safe asset. This would favour the diversification of banks’ exposure to government debt and mitigate negative feedback loops between weak banks and stressed public finances.

Reforms to the EU budget can enhance growth and make it more inclusive. There is scope to increase member states’ contributions, including by reassessing how the European budget is financed, as the current financing does not reflect countries’ ability to pay. The EU Survey suggests that resources to finance growth-enhancing spending, including R&D, be freed up by phasing out production-based payments in the Common Agricultural Policy and better targeting regional policy to lagging regions.

Improving the functioning of the Single Market would boost growth and living standards, the Surveys said. There is scope to ease regulatory burdens and address barriers to trade in services, improve cross-border cooperation in the energy sector through better power system operation and trade, and help member states boost digital skills acquisition.

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