Turkey’s current foreign policy, emerging from the theory of New – Islamism and Pan-Turkism intertwined with the expansionist Azerbaijan’s aspirations, poses a real threat to the security of the region and the territorial integrity of states.
The Turkish-Azerbaijani militaristic policy includes Nakhichevan, thus the Armenian authorities as well as the society can’t be unconcerned about it.
The gross violation of the governance and status quo of Nakhichevan occurs in the eyes of the interested states and international organizations: violating the 1921 international treaties of Moscow and Kars, according to which Azerbaijan is merely a Protector of Nakhichevan, Baku regards the latter as a part of its territory on the one hand, and on the other, it gives Turkey an opportunity to advocate an economic and military annexation of this autonomous republic.
In 2010, Azerbaijan and Turkey signed a “Strategic Partnership Mutual Assistance Agreement”, which, according to specialists, raises the level of Turkish-Azerbaijani relations to the level of military alliance, and in case of a third country attacking Turkey or Azerbaijan, the parties will implement joint security measures and defense.
Joint military exercises are being held in Nakhichevan over the last two years, when the number of Turkish military servicemen (5,000) exceeds that of Azerbaijan. The military exercises include Tur-Az Katali and Tur-Az Sahini air force exercises.
The calculations of the Azerbaijani military units in Nakhichevan and the 3th Turkish Armed Forces Corps supporting them,are based on the conclusion that in the case of a military conflict with Armenia, its Armed Forces will be imposed a two-front war keeping the rear of the main front under the pressure.
In addition, developments in Nakhichevan threaten not only Armenia, but other states in the region, especially Iran, first within the framework of logic, that in the case of the future Kurdish state (if it happens), Nakhichevan can be found within the Iranian Kurdistan.
It should not be ruled out that in the case of such developments, Iran will try to control Nakhichevan.
It should be noted that the Turkish-Azerbaijani aggressive policy vector towards Nakhichevan is just a link of the chain. This policy is fraught with prospects of global destabilization and has a tendency to spread in different directions – the Greater Middle East, Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea, the Caucasus, the Russian-Muslim regions, Central Asia up to Chinese Xinjiang.
These threats, moreover, are accompanied by Recep Erdogan’s persistent demands of reviewing the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) to restore Turkey’s right to the lost lands of the Ottoman Empire.
One of the priorities of the Armenian diplomacy should be to implement the coordinated events as soon as possible – an international conference, embassies-oriented activities, information-propaganda as well as media campaigns, explanatory events, etc. to clarify the dynamics of the Turkish-Azerbaijani militaristic policy in Nakhichevan, which may cause a tsunami in the Middle East, which this time will move to the North – in Transcaucasia and beyond.