One of the main problems of authors writing on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the misuse of the terminology. There are different groups who misuse the terminology on the conflict. Some authors in purpose misuse the terminologies like the former US ambassador to Armenia John Evans did. John Evans presented Nagorno-Karabakh as a “legal entity” and Bako Saahakyan as its “legal representative”. And others unintentionally interpret the terms by describing Bako Sahakyan as a “leader of Nagorno-Karabakh”. While the author’s approach in the article is rather different, one can assume that the use of the “Nagorno-Karabakh leader” in the headline is an unintentional misuse of the word. The headlines are very important since they dictate number of people reading the story, when social media could massively spread it out. The headlines shape the way people think about a piece and the way they remember it in the future. Misuse of terminology as a result of information pollution is the main problem of modern international relations. Bako Saakyan neither politically nor legally represents the people of Nagorno-Karabakh region; nor is a leader. To be more precise, Bako Sahakyan is the leader of Armenian separatists in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Firstly, Bako Sahakyan, was born in Khankendi, then the central city of Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) of Azerbaijan. In 1988, before becoming the activists of the separatist movement of Nagorno-Karabakh, Bako Sahakyan held different positions in NKAO. In 1990, he joined Nagorno-Karabakh separatist military movement against Azerbaijan. Sahakyan started his career as a responsible person for smuggling arms for Nagorno-Karabakh separatists from abroad, but he was called back due to embezzlement of some money. As a leader of separatists, he is known for buying ordinary people’s loyalty through cash money or by paying their debt for them.
Secondly, Bako Sahakyan cannot be recognized as the “legitimate representative of Nagorno-Karabakh”, since Azerbaijanis living there were deported from their homelands in between 1988-1994. Even on February 20, 1988, when the parliament of the NKAO voted for the unification with Armenia, the representatives of the Azerbaijani community were absent of this process. As a result of parliamentary meeting, without approval of Azerbaijani population of NKAO, they seceded from Azerbaijan contrary to the constitution of Azerbaijan SSR. After the war, when the illegal and unconstitutional referendum over independence took place in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijani population of Nagorno-Karabakh was expelled from the region. Until today, more than 780.000 Azerbaijanis have been deported from the Nagorno-Karabakh region as a result of the Armenia-backed military operations internationally recognized as occupation by the UN Security Council resolutions and resolutions from other international organizations. Because of the occupation, the members of Azerbaijani community of Nagorno-Karabakh remains internationally displaced persons in different regions of Azerbaijan. Thus, the Nagorno-Karabakh region is not consisted of Armenians only, the Azerbaijani population used to live there before they were forcefully left from their homelands.
Armenia and the Armenia-backed separatists captured the management of NKAO through the use of heavy weapons and established their military regime over the civilian population that could not exercise their free will. Not only Azerbaijan, but Armenia itself also suffered from the separatist movement. As a result of this movement, Armenia isolated itself from the regional projects. In 1997, separatists from Nagorno-Karabakh, precisely the so-called “Karabakh Clan” that included Bako Sahakyan as well as the former and current presidents of Armenia Robert Kocharyan and Serj Sargsyan, forced Levon Ter-Petrosyan to resign since he did not share their view of the conflict and expressed his readiness to resolve the conflict. As the President of Azerbaijan Republic Ilham Aliyev put it, “the only reason why Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has not been resolved yet is because Armenia doesn’t want to liberate occupied territories.” Armenia along with occupying Azerbaijani territories, also ruined the prospect of the future development for the Armenian people.
Bako Sahakyan is a representative of illegal entity that occupied the sovereign state’s territories. Nagorno-Karabakh is an internationally-recognized part of Azerbaijan. The issue is not that no country in the world recognizes separatist regime in Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state; it is merely enough to glance at the map of Azerbaijan on the UN official page. The official website of the US State Department also displays Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan. And yet, despite the fact that the UN and also the United States recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan, the US State Department still provided the visa for Bako Sahakyan. By issuing a visa for the separatist leader, the U.S. government indirectly supports the illegal activity of separatists, which killed thousands of people and caused the mass deportation of the civilian population from their homelands.
But right after the referendum was held on March 16, 2014 in Crimea, on March 17, 2014,the EU foreign ministers imposed EU-wide sanctions against Crimean separatists. Washington followed up with a sanction list of its own. On April 12 2014, the US imposed sanctions on high-profile Crimean separatists. On June 20, 2014, the US imposed new sanctions against separatists in Ukraine. The targets included some of the most high-profile figures of separatist movements in the eastern Ukraine. On 26 June, 2018,the Trump administration imposed new sanctions against eleven individuals that were involved in separatist movement in the eastern Ukraine. The list includes individuals such as so-called minister of finance, trade, justice and security in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic in the eastern Ukraine. Until today, the US has imposed four sanctions against the separatists from the Crimea, but no sanctions against the Nagorno-Karabakh separatists, including Bako Sahakyan, who can freely receive visa to the EU countries and the US, in order to legalize the illegal entity. Both in case of separatists in Ukraine and Catalonia, we saw that western countries show rather different approaches to separatist attitudes in the Eurasian region.
To sum up, whether intentionally or unintentionally, misusing the terminology of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict serves the legalization of the illegal entity on the territory ofthe sovereign state, which is totally unacceptable. Officials and experts should be careful in choosing the terminology. Because, separatism is not just a problem for Eurasian geography, but as we have seen in the case of Catalonia, for the whole world. The Catalan case proved that sovereignty of the states should be respected by all the actors and they have to avoid providing direct or indirect support for the legalization of illegal entities.
Trump buys Lithuania, EU cannot stop it
The US President Donald Trump is no doubt a successful businessman who rules his country as if it is a huge enterprise. And this kind of management, to his mind, should lead to success. And very often it really works. As a wise leader he uses different tools to reach his goals. Thus, the most cunning one, which the US exploits in Europe – is indirect influence on the EU countries to gain the desired aim. The EU just becomes a tool in “capable hands” of the US.
Let us give the simple example. Last week the Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania announced that the Lithuanian Air Force Base in Šiauliai would get de-icing equipment for the aircraft. It would be acquired according to an agreement signed by the Ministry of National Defence and the AF Security Assistance and Cooperation Directorate (AFSACD) on behalf of the Government of the United States of America.
It is known that the new equipment is capable of removing ice from aircraft at the necessary height which allows the Šiauliai Air Base to support bigger aircraft of the Alliance, such as C-17 – one of the largest transport aircraft capable of moving a large number of soldiers and large amounts of cargo.
It is said that “the procurement for the Lithuanian Air Force Base will fill a critical capability gap and allow the Base personnel to carry out cold weather operations, as well as support the NATO Air Policing Mission. The equipment will also be used for providing servicing for the aircraft of the NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battalion Battle Group-contributing countries and other NATO allies at the Air Base.”
But according to data, only three C-17s belongs to NATO. The US, in its turn, has 222 C-17s in service as of Jan. 2018. Among EU member states the only country that has C-17A ERs is the United Kingdom with 8 C-17A ERs in use. But The United Kingdom is in the process of leaving the organization. So, it is logical to assume that the most interested country in deploying C-17 in Lithuania is the US, not the EU or even NATO. And of course Lithuania cannot even dream of having such planes.
The second issue which is even more important is the fact that the agreement of approximate value of USD 1.03 million is financed from the European Security Assistance Fund (ESAF). Lithuania is not able to share the burden.
So, nothing depends on Lithuania in this issue. It only gives permission.
In the recent years Lithuania’s procurement from the US has grown significantly. The ministry of National Defence is currently in negotiations with the US department of Defence for procuring JLTV all-terrain vehicles.
Unfortunately, being a member of the EU, Lithuania so hardly depends on the US in military and security spheres that it often mixes up its real needs, responsibilities to the EU with the US interests in the region. Such approach could seriously complicate the relations with neighbouring Russia and Belarus which Lithuania borders. These two countries are interested in Lithuania as an economic partner. But if Lithuania will pose military threat to them, deploying US military equipment, these states could terminate any economic cooperation.
Is it a cooperation or manipulation and who will benefit?
Georgia & Silk Roads: Belt & Road Initiative
The ancient Silk Road, or as it is more often called nowadays silk roads, was an ancient trade route from eastern China to various major markets of the ancient and medieval periods (Roman/Byzantine empires, Sasanian Iran, the Arab Caliphate, etc). An important aspect to those trade routes was their changeability over time. This depended mostly on the political situation in the Middle East and this necessitated the seeking out of alternative routes to get important products from Central Asia and western China.
Contrary to widespread arguments, Georgia appeared on those trade routes only from time to time as a result of political disturbances (invasions, economic problems, etc.) in the region. The trade route across Georgia passed from North to South, from Georgia itself further south to Armenia and Iran as well as from East to West. Thus it is difficult to say that Georgia was either totally absent or dominated ancient and medieval trade routes. The Russians at times opened the Georgian transit route for European products to reach Iran in the 19th century. But the success of this commercial road ultimately depended on Russian political decisions. As is also well known that in Soviet times, virtually no international trade routes ran through Georgia as the Union was a closed-border one.
Thus, for the first time in many centuries, Georgia now has the chance to become a transit corridor for trade and energy from the Caspian area, Central Asia and even from western China. Refocusing on Georgia’s transit potential is linked to China’s economic and military rise which is arguably one of the central themes in 21st century geopolitics. Like many other rising powers throughout history, China has strategic imperatives that clash with those of the US. Beijing needs to secure its procurement of oil and gas resources, which are currently most available through the Malacca Strait. In an age of US naval dominance, the Chinese imperative is to redirect its economy’s dependence, as well as its supply routes, elsewhere.
This is how it comes to the almost trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is intended to reconnect the Asia-Pacific with Europe through Russia, the Middle East, and Central Asia. There are several major corridors pinpointed by the Chinese:
- China to Europe through the New Eurasian Land Bridge;
- The China-Mongolia-Russian Corridor;
- Central and West Asian countries.
- The China-Indochina Peninsula Corridor linking China with the South Pacific Ocean through the South China Sea;
- The China-Pakistan trade corridor;
- The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar trade route.
As seen, neither Georgia nor the South Caucasus feature on the list and many analysts think that this is proof that China will unlikely be interested in the South Caucasian route. Yet, the nature of the BRI is not static; it undergoes constant changes and it is likely that Beijing will always adjust its trade routes to rising challenges and new opportunities, trying to operate through difficult geographic terrain as well as politically unstable regions. These are Beijing’s major enemies which make any routes vulnerable and susceptible to re-routing. And this is very much similar to how transcontinental trade routes operated in ancient and medieval periods.
Thus China has and is likely to have in future, an individual approach to each country, which makes the fact that Georgia does not feature on the above-mentioned list of trade routes not an obstacle per se. China is responding to rising opportunities and in that sense Georgia’s ability to develop its Black Sea ports, internal railway and highway networks will facilitate China’s decisions on the active inclusion of the South Caucasian route in its BRI or any future commercial undertakings.
Surely the Chinese also look at the security of the South Caucasus and it is difficult to imagine that Beijing will not take into account Russian moves in the region. Mitigating the Russian challenge together with opening the Georgian market to other powerful players in Eurasia is arguably a modus vivendi for the region’s successful development.
Author’s note: First published in Georgia Today
Azerbaijan: Human Capital Forum Helps the Country Orient Itself for the Future
Recognizing the key role of human capital in growth and competitiveness, the Government of Azerbaijan and World Bank Group organized a three-day, high-level Human Capital Forum in Baku from December 19 to 21, 2018. Each day, approximately 150 participants including government ministers, top policy experts, academics, development and business community leaders, and media representatives gathered to discuss how best to support the Government of Azerbaijan in accelerating the development of its people.
Over the past two decades, oil wealth has helped Azerbaijan achieve high growth rates, significant poverty reduction, and a middle-income status. However, Azerbaijan is facing new and emerging challenges such as how to achieve broad-based, private sector-led growth and make key public services and economic opportunities accessible to all citizens across the country.
Further, on the recently released Human Capital Index, Azerbaijan ranks 69th out of 157 countries. A child born in Azerbaijan today will be 60 percent as productive when she grows up as she could be if she enjoyed complete education and full health. Already, the country’s development strategy documents—the Azerbaijan 2020: Vision for the Future and the Strategic Roadmaps for Economic Reforms —envision human capital development and its effective engagement in the development of Azerbaijan.
The Forum provided a way to explore a “whole-of-government” approach to nurturing human capital by engaging ministers and officials from education, health, tax, labor and other fields.
On Day 1, with the focus on jobs, Sahil Babayev, Minister of Labor and Social Protection of Population, emphasized the country’s commitment to the formation of human capital and measures to stimulate the labor market. He particularly appreciated that human capital development is looked at through the prism of economic growth and social cohesion.
The World Bank presented the World Development Report 2019 The Changing Nature of Work, a study on how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today and how governments can best respond to these changes by investing in human capital and offering social protections to all people. Sahil Babayev was joined by Khagani Abdullayev, Adviser to the Minister of Taxes, Kestutis Jankauskas, Head of the EU delegation, and Maleyka Abbaszadeh, Chairperson of the State Examination Center of Azerbaijan, as panelists.
While discussing how investing in human capital must be a priority for governments for workers to build in-demand skills, Mr. Abdullayev said, “Experience shows that properly implemented tax policies contribute to the implementation of a mechanism for encouraging investment in human capital; in this context, Azerbaijan is paying attention to areas which require unique skills.
This year, it was proposed to introduce tax incentives for a period of ten years for investments in such areas as education, science, sports and culture. At present, educational institutions where people with disabilities study are exempted from income tax in 2019.”
Day 2 focused on education. Setting the stage for discussion, Naveed Naqvi, World Bank Country Manager for Azerbaijan, stressed that the people of Azerbaijan were the country’s only true resource and for them to fully utilize their potential, increased investment in education and skills was needed.
Jeyhun Bayramov, Minister of Education of Azerbaijan, confirmed this in his opening remarks, stating, “Our world requires well-educated, skills-equipped graduates from our schools who will shape our today and tomorrow. And achieving this is a shared responsibility of education, business and government leaders.”The topic was further elaborated in the WB presentation on the 2018 World Development Report: Learning to Recognize Education’s Promise.
In the discussion following the presentations, Jeyhun Bayramov was joined by William Gill, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires; Edward Carwardine, UNICEF Country Coordinator; Fariz Ismailzade, Vice Rector of ADA, Maleyka Abbaszadeh (mentioned above), and Cem Mete, Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice Manager, Europe & Central Asia, World Bank, as panelists. Participants debated measures to ensure that schooling and learning went hand in hand, how to act on evidence to maximize learning outcomes, and how to align various actors in the system to make it work for learning. Mrs. Abbaszadeh said, “It is necessary to change the nature of education to make it career-oriented.”
A presentation on the changing nature of wealth and a discussion centered around The Human Capital Index and Human Capital Project set the agenda for Day 3. Panelists for the latter included Vusal Gasimli, Head of the Center for Analysis and Communication of Economic Reforms, Hijran Huseynova, Chairperson of the State Committee for Family, Women and Children Affairs, Zakiya Mustafayeva, Head of Apparatus, Ministry of Health, Zaur Aliyev, State Agency for Mandatory Health Insurance, Dr. Hande Harmanci, WHO Representative, Garay Garaybayli, Rector of Azerbaijan Medical University, and Ghulam M. Isaczai, UN Resident Coordinator.
Issues for discussion included: Why should countries invest in human capital? Can early health care and education prepare children to succeed and prosper as adults in a rapidly changing world? What are the barriers to nurturing human capital and how can countries overcome them?
Additional forum sessions included the World Bank’s analytical work on employment, higher education, health financing, and early childhood development in Azerbaijan.
Finally, at the end of the three-day forum, the main presentations, key messages and recommendations from the event were presented at the National Parliament of Azerbaijan (Milli Mejlis). Mr. Ziyad Samadzade, Chairman of the Economic Policy Committee, led an engaging discussion on the state of human development in Azerbaijan and ways to accelerate the transformation of Azerbaijan’s oil wealth into human capital.
Extensive communication, both before and during the event, helped achieve broader public conversation around the themes of the Forum. A dedicated event webpage detailed the agenda and included links to key World Bank publications and the Human Capital Project page. One-to-one meetings with key government officials ensured their participation and contribution. The event had impressive media coverage. In the run-up to the event, World Bank officials gave numerous media interviews to promote interest in it. During the Forum, presenters and experts talked extensively to the media.
One of the main conclusions of the 3-day event was that Azerbaijan needs to invest more and better to harness the potential of its human capital, and that its current human capital index is not commensurate with its income level. “With the confluence of rapid technical change and globalization and the need to engage in the global knowledge economy, Azerbaijan’s investments in human capital will be key to its ability to collaborate and compete with other nations,” said Lire Ersado, Program Leader, World Bank.
By championing human capital formation through a whole-of-government approach, Azerbaijan can prepare its citizens for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. With this in mind, the WBG is making a strategic shift to focus its support more on human development in Azerbaijan.
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