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Ethiopia’s forests, an undervalued resource

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In Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa after Nigeria, policymakers are trying to make their nation’s economic development more sustainable.

One of the challenges they face is that traditional economic accounting does not adequately consider nature’s contributions to a country’s economy.

Ethiopia’s forests cover about 14.7 per cent of the country’s land area, with woodland and shrubland accounting for another 44.7 per cent. But the value of these ecosystems to the national economy is not well understood.

For example, Ethiopia’s System of National Accounts is used to calculate Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but it’s uncertain whether this system fully captures the income that forests produce.

Official statistics from the Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation show the forestry sector’s contribution to be about 3.8 per cent of gross domestic product, or GDP.

But a UN Environment report concludes that forests generated economic benefits in the form of cash and in-kind income equivalent to 12.86 per cent of GDP in 2012 and 2013.

In 2014, the Government of Ethiopia requested the UN Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (through UN Environment) to support the country in assessing the contribution of forest ecosystems to national income in the context of the national REDD+ process.

UN Environment’s resulting report assessed – for the first time – the economic contributions of Ethiopia’s forests.

Main findings

Forests generated economic benefits in the form of cash and in-kind income equivalent to 12.86 per cent of GDP in 2012 and 2013; of this, 6.09 per cent of GDP is attributed to forest industries. This means that forest income has been undervalued by about 38 per cent, because official statistics show the sector’s contribution to be 3.8 per cent (2015).

The contribution of forest ecosystems (including carbon sequestration, crop pollination, conservation of agricultural soils and control of water discharge to streams and rivers) to other sectors, particularly agriculture, is valued at 6.77 per cent of GDP.

The fodder livestock farmers obtain freely (by allowing their animals to graze on forest land) was worth about 3.5 per cent of GDP.

Wood fuel’s value added is estimated at about 4.5 per cent of GDP.

Ethiopia’s Green Economy Strategy

The Government of Ethiopia launched a Climate Resilient and Green Economy Strategy in 2011, with the goal of achieving middle-income status for the country by 2025 while following a carbon-neutral growth path. REDD+ implementation is one of the pillars of the Strategy.

The Strategy recognizes that deforestation and forest degradation must be reversed if the country is to meet its development goals. Wood fuel accounts for more than 80 per cent of household energy supply in Ethiopia and is particularly important in rural areas.

How the study can help policymakers

The study’s findings can help strengthen the national REDD+ process in Ethiopia by, among other things, enabling the relevant government agencies to better understand the extent to which Ethiopia’s forests underpin the economy, thereby building support across different ministries for REDD+ implementation.

The findings could provide the basis for updating Ethiopia’s System of National Accounts with a more accurate account of forest-derived benefits in GDP, particularly the subsistence or in-kind income derived from forests, such as fodder for livestock, wood fuel and roundwood.

The results and recommendations could be incorporated in the REDD+ National Strategy and potentially also be reflected in Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan 2 (GTP2) or any subsequent products and reports based on GTP2.

UN Environment’s economic valuation study has made the “invisible visible” by highlighting how forests contribute not only to the value added of the forestry sector but also other non-forest industries, both in cash and in-kind income.

Implementing the Climate Resilient and Green Economy Strategy, therefore, makes economic sense. In doing so, Ethiopia can safeguard its natural capital, including its forests – valuable resources on which the economy depends to a considerable extent.

UN Environment

National Coordinator, Institutional Strengthening for the Forest Sector Development Program at Ethiopia’s Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change, and UN Environment’s Ivo Mulder, Finance and Private Sector Coordinator of the UN-REDD Programme

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Africa

The Transitioning Democracy of Sudan

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Sudan has been the focus of conflict for much of its six decades as an independent nation. Despite being an anomaly in a region crippled with totalitarian populism and escalating violence, the country hasn’t witnessed much economic or political stability in years. While the civic-military coalition, leading a democratic transition towards elections, has managed to subside the fragments of civil war, growing hostility in the peripheries has begun threatening the modest reforms made in the past two years. The recent coup attempt is a befitting example of the plans that are budding within the echelons of the Sudanese military to drag the country back into the closet. And while the attempt got thwarted, it is not a success to boast. But it is a warning that the transition would not be as smooth a ride as one might have hoped.

The problems today are only a reflection of Sudan’s issues in the past: especially which led to the revolution. The civil unrest began in Sudan back in December 2018. Sudan’s long-serving ruler, Omer al-Bashir, had turned Sudan into an international outcast during his 30-year rule of tyranny and economic isolation. Naturally, Sudan perished as an economic pariah: especially after the independence of South Sudan. With the loss of oil revenues and almost 95% of its exports, Sudan inched on the brink of collapse. In response, Bashir’s regime resorted to impose draconian austerity measures instead of reforming the economy and inviting investment. The cuts in domestic subsidies over fuel and food items led to steep price hikes: eventually sparking protests across the east and spreading like wildfire to the capital, Khartoum.

In April 2019, after months of persistent protests, the army ousted Bashir’s government; established a council of generals, also known as the ‘Transitional Military Council.’ The power-sharing agreement between the civilian and military forces established an interim government for a period of 39 months. Subsequently, the pro-democracy movement nominated Mr. Abdalla Hamdok as the Prime Minister: responsible for orchestrating the general elections at the end of the transitional period. The agreement coalesced the civilian and military powers to expunge rebellious factions from society and establish a stable economy for the successive government. However, the aspirations overlooked ground realities.

Sudan currently stands in the third year of the transitional arrangement that hailed as a victory. However, the regime is now most vulnerable when the defiance is stronger than ever. Despite achieving respite through peace agreements with the rebels in Sudan, the proliferation of arms and artillery never abated. In reality, the armed attacks have spiraled over the past two years after a brief hiatus achieved by the peace accords. The conflict stems from the share of resources between different societal fractions around Darfur, Kordofan, and the Blue Nile. According to UN estimates, the surging violence has displaced more than 410,000 people across Sub-Saharan Africa in 2021. The expulsion is six times the rate of displacement recorded last year. According to the retreating UN peacekeeping mission, the authorities have all but failed to calm the rampant banditry and violence: partially manifested by the coup attempt that managed to breach the government’s order.

The regional instability is only half the story. Since the displacement of Bashir’s regime, Sudan has rarely witnessed stability, let alone surplus dividends to celebrate. Despite thawing relations with Israel and joining the IMF program, Sudan has felt little relief in return. The sharp price hikes and gripping unemployment which triggered the coup back in 2019 never receded: galloped instead. Currently, inflation runs rampant above 400%, while the Sudanese Pound has massively devalued under conditions dictated by the IMF. And despite bagging some success in negotiating International debt relief, the Hamdok regime has struggled to invite foreign investment and create jobs: majorly due to endemic conflicts that still run skin-deep in the fabric of the Sudanese society.

While the coup attempt failed, it is still not a sigh of relief for the fragile government. The deep-rooted analysis of the coup attempt reveals a stark reality: the military factions – at least some – are no longer sated in being equal-footed with a civilian regime. Moreover, the perpetrators tried to leverage the widening disquiet within the country by blocking roads and attempting to sabotage state-run media: hoping to gain public support. The population is indeed frustrated by the economic desperation; the failure of the coup attempt means that people have still not given up hope in a democratic government and a free-and-fair election. Nonetheless, it is not the first tranche of the army to rebel, and it certainly won’t be the last. The only way to salvage democracy is to stabilize Sudan’s economy and resolve inter-communal violence before leading the county towards elections. Otherwise, it is apparent that Bashir’s political apparatus is so deeply entrenched in Sudan’s ruling network that even if the transitional government survives multiple coups, an elected government would ultimately wither.

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Money seized from Equatorial Guinea VP Goes into Vaccine

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As a classic precedence, the Justice Department of the United States has decided that $26.6m (£20m) seized from Equatorial Guinea’s Vice-President Teodorin Nguema Obiang Mangue be used on purchasing COVID-19 vaccines and other essential medical programmes in Equitorial Guinea, located on the west coast of central Africa.

“Wherever possible, kleptocrats will not be allowed to retain the benefits of corruption,” an official said in a statement, and reported by British Broadcasting Corporation.

Obiang was forced to sell a mansion in Malibu, California, a Ferrari and various Michael Jackson memorabilia as part of a settlement he reached with the US authorities in 2014 after being accused of corruption and money-laundering. He denied the charges.

The agreement stated that $10.3m of the money from the sale would be forfeited to the US and the rest would be distributed to a charity or other organisation for the benefit of the people of Equatorial Guinea, the Justice Department said.

The UN is to receive $19.25m to purchase and administer COVID-19 vaccines to at least 600,000 people in Equatorial Guinea, while a US-based charity is to get $6.35m for other medical programmes in Equatorial Guinea.

Teodorin Nguema has been working in position as Vice-President since 2012, before that he held numerous government positions, including Minister of Agriculture and Forestry. Known for his unquestionable lavish lifestyle, he has been the subject of a number of international criminal charges and sanctions for alleged embezzlement and corruption. He has a fleet of branded cars and a number of houses, and two houses alone in South Africa,

Teodorin Nguema has often drawn criticisms in the international media for lavish spending, while majority of the estimated 1.5 million population wallows in abject poverty. Subsistence farming predominates, with shabby infrastructure in the country. Equatorial Guinea consists of two parts, an insular and a mainland region. Equatorial Guinea is the third-largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa.

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African Union’s Inaction on Ethiopia Deplorable – Open Letter

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The crisis in northern Ethiopia has resulted in millions of people in need of emergency assistance and protection. © UNICEF/Christine Nesbitt

A group of African intellectuals says in an open letter that it is appalled and dismayed by the steadily deteriorating situation in Ethiopia. The letter, signed by 58 people, says the African Union’s lack of effective engagement in the crisis is deplorable. The letter calls on regional bloc IGAD and the AU to “proactively take up their mandates with respect to providing mediation for the protagonists to this conflict”.

The letter also asks for “all possible political support” for the AU’s Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Olusegun Obasanjo, whose appointment was announced on August 26, 2021. A United Nations Security Council meeting on the same day welcomed the former Nigerian president’s appointment.

Earlier in August 2021, UN  chief Antonio Guterres appealed for a ceasefire, unrestricted aid access and an Ethiopian-led political dialogue. He told the council these steps were essential to preserve Ethiopia’s unity and the stability of the region and to ease the humanitarian crisis. He said that he had been in close contact with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and had received a letter from the leader of the Tigray region in response to his appeal. “The UN is ready to work together with the African Union and other key partners to support such a dialogue,” he said.

August 26, 2021 was only the second time during the conflict that the council held a public meeting to discuss the situation. Britain, Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway and the United States requested the session.

Fighting between the national government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front broke out in November 2020, leaving millions facing emergency or crisis levels of food insecurity, according to the United Nations. Both sides have been accused of atrocities.

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