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231,000 New Jobs Added in Western Balkans amid Ongoing Economic Challenges, Emigration

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A 3.9 percent increase in employment over the last year has led to the creation of 231,000 new jobs throughout the six countries of the Western Balkans, according to the “Western Balkans Labor Market Trends 2018” report, launched today by the World Bank and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). Unemployment also fell from 18.6 percent to 16.2 percent, reaching historic lows in some countries.

Leading the way for employment in the region was Kosovo, which saw an increase of 9.2 percent, followed by Serbia (4.3 percent), Montenegro (3.5 percent), Albania (3.4 percent), FYR Macedonia (2.7 percent), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (1.9 percent). Despite this progress, however, low activity rates – particularly among women and young people – along with high rates of long-term unemployment and a prevalence of informal work, continue to pose challenges for sustained economic growth in the region.

“The region has made great strides in improving labor market outcomes over the last year – meaning more people are finding jobs,” says Linda Van Gelder, World Bank Country Director for the Western Balkans. “However, we continue to see high rates of people who are not in employment, education or in training programs and we need to find ways to link them to future opportunities.”

Youth unemployment of 37.6 percent is a key challenge for the region. However, this rate is down from last year and nearly every country in the region is experiencing the lowest levels of youth unemployment since 2010. Country rates range from 29 percent in Montenegro and Serbia, to more than 50 percent in Kosovo. According to the report, it may be difficult for young people who become detached from jobs or education for long periods to reintegrate into the labor market. They also face a wage gap, earning up to 20 percent less than those who find employment sooner.

The report also notes that female employment rates are on the rise but they still remain low by European standards. The employment rate for women across the region stands at 43.2 percent, varying from a low of 13.1 percent in Kosovo to a high of 52.3 percent in Serbia. The gender gap in employment has also narrowed since 2010, ranging from 28.9 percentage points in Kosovo to 9.8 percentage points in Montenegro.

“Economic trends in the region look to be headed in the right direction,” says Robert Stehrer, Scientific Director of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. “Getting more people, particularly young and women into employment remains one of the key challenges in the region to sustain economic and social convergence.”

A number of obstacles to employment need to be addressed to reduce ongoing emigration from the region, especially common among young, educated people. In order to address this, further knowledge is needed. Countries in the region should synchronize their data on emigration and improve the registration and publication of migration statistics. By utilizing high-quality data that is in-line with international standards on workforce composition – both domestically and internationally – will produce accurate analysis of labor market dynamics in the region and allow for the design of policies that can simultaneously address the challenges of emigration and reap the benefits of migration.

Better linkages between secondary graduates and the labor market, as well as earlier interventions to retain students, can improve opportunities for employment. Policies, such as child care, care facilities for the elderly, flexible work arrangements and more part-time jobs would also promote labor market integration among women.

The report was produced with financial support from the Austrian Ministry of Finance.

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Turkey: A full recovery from the COVID-19 crisis will take time

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The COVID-19 crisis has hit Turkey’s people and economy hard, accentuating pre-existing challenges such as the low share of workers in formal employment and obstacles to firm expansion. Well-designed support to households and firms that is aligned with a return to macroeconomic stability, and reforms to improve competition and labour laws, institutions and business would help to build a lasting recovery, according to a new OECD report.

The latest OECD Economic Survey of Turkey says a full recovery from the COVID-19 crisis will take time, given the blow from the drop in tourism and uncertainty over the future evolution of the pandemic, as well as Turkey’s limited welfare provisions and high levels of corporate and household debt. The crisis has put pressure on the viability of many businesses and on social cohesion, hitting informal workers, women, refugees and youths particularly hard. While a one-size-fits-all support strategy was justified during the first phase of confinements, policy support in the second wave of the pandemic should now be adapted to the varying conditions of sectors, workers, households and companies.

The pandemic has also amplified monetary policy challenges, with inflation surging further to well above Turkey’s 5% official target following interventions to shore up economic activity, bank liquidity and the Lira currency. Support to people and firms should be provided in a transparent and stable way to build investor confidence and reduce the risk of abrupt movements of capital. For example, targeted allowances for a stated period can be more effective than concessional loans and one-off transfers. Turkey should also seek to replenish foreign reserves and restore the independence of the Central Bank, the Survey says.

In parallel to the pandemic, Turkey remains exposed to geopolitical and trade risks, including the effect of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU. As things stand, and factoring in headwinds from the second wave of the pandemic, the Survey projects Turkey’s GDP rebounding by 2.6% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2020.

“Turkey is looking at a gradual recovery from the COVID-19 crisis and risks persist for growth and well-being,” said Alvaro Pereira, OECD Director of Economic Country Studies. “The focus should be on restoring macroeconomic stability and seeing the post-crisis period as an opportunity to encourage foreign and domestic investment through stronger public governance, and to use market and labour reforms to empower businesses to grow and create quality jobs.”

Once a recovery is under way and investor confidence restored, the Survey estimates that a combination of market, institutional and education reforms could lift GDP per capita by 1% per year over the coming years. Market liberalisation reforms should include removing anticompetitive regulatory barriers in product markets, increasing labour market flexibility and reducing corporate income tax, while institutional reforms should improve public governance and the formalisation of business activities.

While the dynamism of Turkey’s business sector, and the country’s strong entrepreneurial spirit and youthful workforce, have been an asset through the COVID-19 pandemic, the majority of Turkish firms are very small and have limited capacity to weather a protracted slowdown. Significant parts of the business sector rely on informal or semi-formal practices in employment, corporate governance, financial transparency and tax compliance. Easing overly stringent regulations on product and labour markets and simplifying business and tax systems would make it easier for young firms to grow and move to the formal sector. A modernized and more efficient business sector would also help firms to emerge stronger from the crisis.

In terms of labour reforms, cutting non-wage labour costs, shifting part of the cost of social protection to sources other than payroll contributions, making statutory minimum wages affordable for low-productivity firms, and modernising regulations for temporary as well as permanent contracts would stimulate the creation of formal jobs once the recovery takes hold.

Education reforms should seek to enhance adult skills in a country which ranks among the highest in the OECD for qualification mismatch, with 43% of the working population either over-qualified (29%) or underqualified (14%) for their job. Investing more in Research & Development and in digital technology and infrastructure would also raise growth prospects.

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Call for Closer Policy Collaboration on Artificial Intelligence

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A recent APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) report revealed that artificial intelligence (AI) has a role to play in mitigating both the short and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on APEC economies.

From automated health diagnostics in hospitals to smart recruitment processes in organizations, the report, titled Artificial Intelligence in APEC, finds that this technology is creating new, previously unforeseen jobs, products and services that will contribute to the post-COVID-19 economic recovery.

“As we release this report, APEC economies are facing the twin threats of a global pandemic and an economic crisis that will leave its mark on our communities for years to come,” said Dato’ Rohana Tan Sri Mahmood, Chair of the 2020 APEC Business Advisory Council.

“How APEC economies address the accelerated rise of the digital economy and leverage new technologies like AI is one of the most pressing issues of our time,” she added.

The report also examines how AI is being adopted and applied across the region and makes key recommendations calling for closer policy collaboration between business and governments.

Of the surveyed APEC economies, the report found that most already have plans, policies or programs devoted to driving or supporting AI ecosystems. In fact, the report highlights some of the AI-related innovation already underway across the region, including finding ways to help patients suffering from locked-in syndrome to communicate with the world by a team of engineers at a university in the Philippines.

Another notable innovation will benefit the farming industry. A Japanese corporation is trying to improve the efficiency of farming by automatically aggregating and analyzing sensor data and satellite images to provide farmers with farm management recommendations. In addition, a group from New Zealand developed AI-powered crocodile-spotting drones to keep swimmers safe in Australian rivers, among others.

“AI technologies have the potential to significantly impact businesses and communities across our economies,” Dato’ Rohana explained. “We believe that APEC can serve as an effective forum for member economies to collaborate on ways to maximize the benefits of AI and promote inclusive growth while ensuring its use in a responsible and ethical manner,” she added.

According to the report, recognizing this technology and all its capabilities is a central component of an economy’s forward-looking policy for growth, productivity and job creation, highlighting that the potential of AI extends beyond economic benefits and includes tools to address complex issues such as poverty, inequality, climate change, healthcare and ways to cope with effects of the pandemic.

As AI becomes more widely accepted, adopted and used for innovation, the report suggests that APEC policymakers will need to draft new policies, revise existing ones, confront new questions, address new needs and reassess its impact.

“With the cooperation of the public and private sector, a coordinated future of AI will increase the Asia-Pacific region’s competitiveness and further facilitate regional integration,” the report notes.

Artificial intelligence, already well on its way to transforming the Asia-Pacific, drives social and economic growth across all key sectors. However, the pandemic, and the ensuing focus on economic recovery, brings a renewed sense of urgency to discussions around AI usage. 

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Global Economic Outlook 2021: Rebound will drive growth at record speed

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The global economy is projected to grow in 2021 by around 5% in market exchange rates – the fastest rate recorded in the 21st century – returning the global economy in aggregate to pre- pandemic levels of output by the end of 2021 or early 2022.

The predictions published today in PwC’s Global Economy Watch for 2021 – From the Great Lockdown to the Great Rebound – highlight key themes for 2021 linked to a wider reset for economies, skills and society. 

Growth will return, but be uneven and be contingent on a successful and speedy deployment of vaccines and continued accommodative fiscal, monetary and financial conditions in the larger economies of the world.  Another key theme will be how the push for recovery and growth could synchronize green infrastructure investment, creating a turning point in the fight against climate change. 

Growth will return but be uneven 

Despite projected expansion of 5% in market exchange rates this year, the predictions caution that the next three-to-six months will continue to be challenging, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere countries going through the winter months as they could be forced to further localised or full economy-wide lockdowns (as recently displayed in the UK). 

Output in some advanced economies, for example, could contract in Q1 and growth overall is more likely to pick up in the second half of the year, when it is expected that large advanced economies will  have vaccinated at least two thirds of their population.

Barret Kupelian, senior economist at PwC, said:“While it’s good news that the global economy in aggregate is likely to be back to its pre-crisis levels of output by the end of 2021 or early 2022, a distinguishing feature of the Great Rebound is that it will be uneven across different countries, sectors and income levels. For example, the Chinese economy is already bigger than its pre-pandemic size, but other advanced economies ‒‒ particularly heavily service based economies like the UK, France and Spain or those focused on exporting capital goods, such as Germany and Japan ‒‒ are unlikely to recover to their pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021.”

In economies such as the UK, France, Spain and Germany, growing but lower levels of output are projected to push up unemployment rates, with most of the jobs affected likely to be those at the bottom end of the earnings distribution, thus exacerbating income inequalities. 

Barret Kupelian, senior economist at PwC, added: “Once the virus is under control, policymakers’ attention will need to focus on laying the foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth with particular focus on creating jobs and pushing the green economy agenda. Business leaders need to plan now both in terms of growth and investment, including upskilling of their existing workforce as a key aspect.”

A synchronised push for green infrastructure 

The environment will be an important focus for 2021 and is already being positioned as an opportunity for accelerating the business and policy transition to net zero. Significant investment and policy shifts related to the Paris Climate Agreement are expected in 2021 in the major trading blocks including the US, China and the EU. 

Green bonds, which are used to directly finance environmental projects, currently make up less than 5% of the global fixed income market. In 2021, total green bond issuance will increase by over 40% to top half a trillion US dollars for the first time. In addition, investor appetite for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) funds will continue to increase and could account for up to 57% of total European mutual funds by 2025. 

Globally, the analysis points to electricity production from renewables continuing to gather momentum, with solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity likely to grow at rapid rates on the back of growing capacity in the EU, India and China. If current trends continue, solar PV capacity is on course to surpass natural gas in 2023 and coal in 2024 in the global electricity sector.

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