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New Ideological Tactics of al-Qaeda To Revive Its Power

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Leaflets with the oath of loyalty to the military wing of al-Qaeda

According to American intelligence agencies, in the recent six months the influx of new recruits from post-Soviet states of Eurasia to Syria, who want to fight for the establishment of the Caliphate, has significantly reduced. It has occurred after the fall of the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and also after a significant weakening of positions of the jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir Al –Sham associated with al-Qaeda.

However, al-Qaeda, via its groups in Central Asia and Caucasus, which are fighting within Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has developed and actively used new tactics of recruitment and distribution of the radical ideology of jihadism. Since March 2018, two terrorist groups from Central Asia, Katibat Imamal Bukhari and Katibat al Tawhidwal Jihad have started to actively distribute photocopies of leaflets via social media supporting the jihadist line of al-Qaeda.

The leaflets in Russian, Uzbek, Kazakh, Uighur and Tajik advocating the support of pro-al-Qaeda groups in Syria and calling on the continuation of the “jihad to protect Islam” have been regularly published on a Telegram channel. The geography of such leaflet distributors is rather broad. For reasons of security, the leaflets don’t contain full names or surnames of the new supporters of al-Qaeda. Instead, they contain only a region, country, town or village of the leaflet senders. The senders’ addresses imply that the senders reside in Western Europe, Russia, Caucasus, Central Asia and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China.

Despite the fact that leaflets are written in various languages and sent from various regions of the Eurasian continent, the contents of such leaflets are identical.The fundamental idea behind the leaflets is to support the jihadist groups fighting in Syria and to become a member of the main Sunni terrorist organization al-Qaeda.

Thus, March 4, 2018, the Telegram page of Central Asian militants of Katibat al Tawhidwal Jihad contained the leaflet with the following content in Uzbek, “Dear Muslims mujahideen Ahlu al-Sunnah wa al-Jamaah! We support the holy struggle pursued by the brave warriors of Allah Hay’at Tahrir Al –Shamon the blessed land of Sham (Syria) against atheists. Your actions are meant to establish the sharia laws on earth. May Allah be pleased with you. Soon we will come to you to support you. Allahuakbar! Tajikistan, Hudjont, 03.04.2018.”

Another leaflet said that “the Muslims in On Adyr micro-district, Osh, Kyrgyzstan, support the mujahideen of Hay’atTahrir Al –Sham. Let Allah give you victory in the war against the crusaders.” Also a leaflet from Dagestan, Russia, has been published with a call to “support the mujahideen of Hay’at Tahrir Al –Shamand a prayer for the early establishment of the caliphate.” Tawhidwal Jihadon his Telegram page has published the photocopies of over 100 leaflets calling to support jihad under the leadership of pro-al-Qaeda groups in Syria. These leaflets have been sent from Moscow, Chelyabinsk of Russian Federation; Jizak, Ferghana, Namangan regions of Uzbekistan, Chimkent, KyzylOrda of Kazakhstan; Uzgen, Osh, Aravan, Nookat, Jalal-Abad of Kyrgyzstan; Ukraine (no town specified), South Korea (no town specified), Western Europe (no state specified) and Jeddah of Saudi Arabia.

The leaflets have been written mainly in Uzbek and Russian by hand by an ordinary pen. There’s no doubt in the authenticity of these leaflets. The grammar of presentation, the authors’ handwriting and the time of publication in the Telegram indicate that the leaflets have been written by different people, at different times and in different countries.

Among the numerous leaflets published by Katibat al Tawhidwal Jihad on the Telegram channel, we have paid attention to those sent from Turkey and Egypt. The leaflet from Turkey was in the form of an Islamic flag of al-Qaeda and contained the promise that “we will soon arrive in Sham and together with the Mujahideen Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham we will sing Takfir (devotion to Allah). And then the dead bodies of the kafirs will lie under our feet.” The leaflet from Cairo was written by hand in literate Arabic, in which the support of al-Qaeda is expressed on behalf of the Mujahideen of Egypt.

Katibat al Tawhidwal Jihad is affiliated with the Jabhat Al-Nusra group and its ancestor Al Qaeda. The leader of the group is the Uzbek jihadist, Abu Saloh. His real name is Sirojiddin Mukhtarov, born in the Osh region of Kyrgyzstan. According to the Kyrgyz law enforcement agencies, in 2014 Abu Saloh was wounded in the eye in fighting against the Syrian governmental forces and then was treated in Turkey. Abu Saloh jointly with the Uighur terrorists from the Turkestan Islamic Party organized the explosion in the Bishkek-based Chinese embassy in August 2016. Also, the Federal Security Service of Russia accuses him of organizing an explosion in the metro of St. Petersburg on April 3, 2017, which killed 15 people, and wounded more than 50 others. The bomb was blown up by a suicide bomber, Akbarjon Jalilov, a 22-year-old native of Kyrgyzstan.

Another jihadist group from Central Asia Katibat Imam al Bukhari, close in its ideological doctrine to al-Qaeda, has also published on its Telegram page many dozens of leaflets. It should be emphasized that the main core of militant groups are nationals of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, who are fighting today in the Syrian province of Idlib in alliance with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham against the regime of Bashar Assad. The leader of Katibat Imam al Bukhari is a native of Tajikistan, ethnic Uzbek, Abu Yusuf Muhojir, who is known for his deep religious knowledge in the field of jihad and devotion to the idea of al-Qaeda. He has trust-based relations with the leadership of the Taliban movement. Some of the militants of the Uzbek group help the Taliban in Afghanistan. But Abu Yusuf Muhojir himself is now in Syria, and he leads the group there.

A leaflet with the al-Qaeda emblem decorated with an Arabic engraving “Allah is Great” was published on the Telegram page of Katibat Imam al Bukhariat the bottom of which is written in Kyrgyz,“By the will of Allah, we love, respect and support the brave lions of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. Soon we will follow the path of jihad, and we will fight shoulder to shoulder with you against the enemies of Islam. Kyrgyzstan, Osh, Nookat. 03.04.2018.”

Similar leaflets in support of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham positions have been widely published on the Telegram by the media structures of Central Asian jihadists JihodShamoli (Wind of Jihad), Sham Ovozi (Voice of Sham) and Tavhid Xabarlari (News of Tawhid).

Tactics of Survival of alQaeda

We have quoted the leaflets in detail and tried to reveal their deep meaning so that the counterterrorism experts could understand the ideological tactics pursued by the main Sunni terrorist organization of al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups Hay’at Tahriral-Sham, Katibat Imamal Bukhari and Katibat al Tawhidwal Jihad.

As the analysis shows, the content and ideological platform of all these leaflets are identical. This campaign aims to, first of all, consolidate al-Qaeda supporters in Western Europe, Russia, Central Asian countries, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China and the Middle East.

Internet and social media have become the main tool of virtual consolidation and recruitment for Salafi-jihadi groups, affiliated with al-Qaeda. The al-Qaeda recruiting strategy in the regions of Central Asia and Caucasus accepts only ideologically verified people who are directly related to the factions of Katibat al Tawhidwal Jihad, Katibat al-Imam Bukhari, Turkestan Islamic Party and Katibat al-Ghuraba.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is known to strictly observe all the requirements of secrecy (no cell phone, no social media usage, no internet usage, and no emails). Therefore, the ideologists of the leaflet campaign have decided not to mention al-Qaeda in leaflets directly, rather they have organized public and mass support of his fighting wing, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. Despite the latest tactical differences between Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the ideological position of the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham group today fully corresponds to the position of al-Qaeda.

The new ideological tactics of al-Qaeda proves the statement of the Council on Foreign Relations of the US that“in recent years, al-Qaeda has been quietly rebuilding and fortifying its various branches, systematically implemented an ambitious strategy and discreetly consolidated its influence wherever the movement has a significant presence.”

The wars in Syria and Iraq have shown that al-Qaeda and ISIS have different tactics for using militants from Central Asia in a real battle. ISIS is known for using the militants from Central Asia as cannon fodder, neglecting human lives. In the protection of Mosul and Raqqa, Tajik and Uzbek jihadists have been massively used as suicide bombers who blew themselves up in the name of Allah as martyrs. According to the study of The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, in the ISIS ranks, people from Central Asia were leading in terms of the number of suicide bombers. As a result, more than 80% of the Central Asian militants in the ISIS were destroyed. The surviving militants have managed to move to Afghanistan and rejoin ISIS-Khorasan. Some of them have returned to their countries and surrendered to law enforcement agencies, as a result, many of them were sentenced to prison.

Unlike ISIS, al-Qaeda follows the doctrine of its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri who said, “We should adapt to the practical reality wherever it is. We would take into account the circumstances of each jihadist arena and what achieves its interests”.Due to this tactics, al-Qaeda has managed to survive and maintain the efficiency of its groups in Syria, including Katibat Imamal Bukhari and Katibat al Tawhidwal Jihad from Central Asia. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, in Syria alone, al-Qaeda now has upwards of twenty thousand men under arms, and it has perhaps another four thousand in Yemen and about seven thousand in Somalia.

Due to the strategy of adoption to the practical reality, al-Qaeda has survived from unmanned aircrafts, ground clashes with the Assad forces and won in the tough competition with ISIS for the leadership in the global jihad. ISIS no longer can compete with al-Qaeda in terms of influence, coverage of territories, militant force or solidarity. The only trump card of ISIS is its ability to launch transnational terrorist strikes in Europe and USA. Today only due to “lone wolves” ISIS can still maintain its menacing brand and hold intelligence services on western countries in suspense.

Purpose of Leaflet Campaign

The leaflet campaign in support of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham group pursues the three aims that comply with the strategic task ofal-Qaeda.

First, as we have already mentioned, this is a consolidation of supporters and distribution of the al-Qaeda ideology in the post-Soviet territory. Compared to the Arabic countries of the Middle East, African Maghreb, and Southern Asia, the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia and Muslim republics of Russia remain the least exposed to the radical ideology of al-Qaeda. Therefore, al-Qaeda thinks that it’s time for the deeper invasion in the Eurasian region.

Second, the recruitment of new members for Salafi-jihadi groups affiliated with al-Qaeda is an important aim of this leaflet campaign. After the fall ofISIS, many of its supporters and potential jihadists in Central Asia have become confused. In this situation, al-Qaeda has decided to fill in the gap and convert the former ISIS members to their side.  Moreover, the war in Syria and Iraq has shown that Central Asia has a good potential for the recruitment of jihadists.

Third, al-Qaeda is intending to open another branch in the post-Soviet area of Central Asia in addition to the five existing branches. These tactics supports the ambitions of al-Qaedato become the leader of the global jihad. After the defeat of ISIS, Ayman al-Zawahiri has turned into a powerful leader able to set strategic tasks and to implement them successfully step by step.

In conclusion, it should be emphasized that the main target of al-Qaeda is, according to the will of Bin Laden, the USA and its allies. Therefore, western countries at the head of the US should take the “leaflet campaign” of al-Qaeda seriously because it has far-reaching goals and poses a serious threat to the interests and partners of the USA all over the world.

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Sino-Russian regional activities after Afghanistan

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After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan last August, Russia warned against the threat from the extremist organisation of the Islamic State (ISIS) and the increase in drug trafficking.

The Taliban have decided to cooperate with Russia, China and Iran to maintain regional security. The news agency France-Presse reported that the Taliban had participated in high-level talks in Moscow. During that time, ten countries requested emergency humanitarian assistance for Afghanistan and said that the countries which have recently withdrawn from Afghanistan should provide funds to help with reconstruction. The countries are the following: China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Before that meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin had warned that some ten thousand ISIS fighters had gathered in Northern Afghanistan to spread religious and ethnic discord. The Soviet Union once bordered on Afghanistan and Russia still considers this area a zone of influence.

Putin reported in mid-September that the ISIS leader was planning to send people disguised as refugees to neighbouring countries in Central Asia.

The countries participating in the Moscow talks stressed in a joint statement that they were concerned about the actions of terrorist organisations and reaffirmed their willingness to continue to promote security in Afghanistan to contribute to regional stability.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticised the absence of US officials during the meeting. He said earlier that ISIS-affiliated fighters and al-Qaeda were trying to take advantage of the power void in some parts of Afghanistan.

In the joint statement, the participating countries urged the Taliban to implement appropriate and cautious domestic and foreign policies and adopt a friendly policy towards Afghanistan’s neighbours.

In terms of internal policy, they demand that the Taliban respect the rights of ethnic groups, women and children. Prior to that meeting, Taliban representatives had met with EU and US officials and had also travelled to Turkey, hoping to gain official recognition and assistance from the international community.

The Taliban are in desperate need of allies at the moment because Afghanistan’s economy is in danger due to the loss of international aid, rising food prices and increasing unemployment.

With specific reference to China and Russia, on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the signing of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation, relations between the two countries entered the third decade of stability and friendship.

Currently, however, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has led to at least two negative outcomes for China and Russia: 1) Afghanistan, located in the ‘backyard’ of China and Russia has destabilised; 2) the conflict has been chaotic and the future is uncertain and after thirty years since the end of the Cold War, the United States has freed itself from that burden to focus on the challenges of the two major Eurasian powers.

Before the US withdrawal – although the Sino-Russian-US geopolitical game continued to intensify – Afghanistan was still the place where the interests of the three countries overlapped and the parties were all interested in achieving a “soft landing” on the issue.

Since 2019 the three countries have been working together in the form of an enlarged “troika” to peacefully resolve the Afghan issue. For Russia and China, the US military presence in Afghanistan was a double-edged sword: it did not only represent a geographical threat, but could also effectively contain radical Islamic forces in the region.

Both China and Russia hoped that, after reaching a sustainable peace agreement with the parties involved in Afghanistan, the US military would withdraw from Afghanistan in an orderly way to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a “terrorist sanctuary” again.

The quick US defeat in Afghanistan, however, without agreements and/or compromise solutions, was unexpected for China and Russia, especially when, on May 11, the US military evacuated the Kandahar airport without informing the Afghan government, etc.

China and Russia have no choice but to face an Afghanistan whose political future is doubtful. The two superpowers, however, have completely different attitudes towards the Afghan issue: the former is more proactive in contacting all parties inside and outside Afghanistan.

On May 11, at the Second Meeting of the Five Foreign Ministers in the format of “Central Asia and China” held in Xi’an, the Chinese State Councillor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, had warned that “foreign troops should withdraw from Afghanistan in an orderly and responsible manner to prevent hasty actions against Afghanistan”. A few days later, the Chinese Foreign Minister told his Afghan counterpart that China was “willing to host Afghanistan’s internal talks and help its efforts against terrorism”. In mid-July, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Dushanbe, Wang Yi reiterated that proposal.

It was in that context that Wang Yi paid an official visit to Tajikistan on July 14 and then participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Foreign Ministers’ meeting and met Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Tashkent the following day. Furthermore, on July 16, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with the then Afghan President Ashraf Ghan. Xi Jinping urged “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned political dialogue to promote national reconciliation and peace processes”. He also promised to provide more assistance to Afghanistan in the fight against Covid-19 and hoped that the Afghan side would provide more protection to Chinese citizens and organisations in Afghanistan.

Ten days after US forces suddenly withdrew from Bagram Air Base (July 6), i.e. when Xi Jinping and Ghani were in talks, the United States announced that the new deadline for the US withdrawal was August 31, thus causing the Afghan army’s collapse across the country as early as late July.

On July 28, while meeting Taliban political leader Abdul Ghani Baradar in Tianjin, Wang Yi said: “The sudden withdrawal of the US and NATO troops from Afghanistan marks the failure of US policy in Afghanistan. The Afghan people are now faced with an important opportunity to stabilise and develop their country”.

Baradar hopes that China will increasingly participate in the peace-building process in Afghanistan and play a greater role in the country’s reconstruction and economic development. Wang Yi said the Taliban should draw a clear line with terrorist organisations such as ISIS. In response, Baradar promised that the Afghan Taliban would “absolutely not permit any force to do anything harmful to China on the territory of Afghanistan”.

Baradar is not the first to visit China. Before September 11, 2001, the Taliban had contacts with China but, after the tragic events, China supported the Afghan Northern Alliance and the aforementioned contacts with the Taliban were interrupted for several years. Nevertheless, China has never classified the Taliban as a terrorist organisation.

China’s active diplomacy towards Afghanistan has two main reasons: firstly, security concerns, particularly China’s Western borders; secondly, economic interests, because all of Afghanistan’s neighbours are countries linked to the Silk Road Initiative.

In the actual operation, security and economy are closely related and are both essential. On July 14, the shuttle bus of the Dasu Hydropower Project in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Northwest Pakistan, was attacked by terrorists. The attack caused the death of thirteen people, including nine Chinese citizens. The Dasu Hydropower Plant is part of the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Moreover, as a neighbouring country to Afghanistan, China has a 92-kilometre-long border at the eastern edge of the 300-kilometre-long Wakhan Valley, which is connected to this war-torn country. According to reports, China provided about 70 million dollars in military assistance to Afghanistan between 2016 and 2018 and helped the Afghan army establish a mountain brigade dedicated to fighting terrorism in the Wakhan corridor.

Furthermore, during the two decades in which the United States occupied Afghanistan, China’s investment there included millions and millions of dollars in economic assistance, including various projects such as schools, hospitals, flats and food assistance, and trained thousands of Afghan students and technicians in China and Afghanistan.

Since 2017 China, Afghanistan and Pakistan have been discussing the possibility of extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan. Nevertheless, some major economic projects, such as the 2008 four billion dollar contract for the Anyak copper mine and the 2011 contract for the Amu Darya Basin joint oil and gas field development, have been suspended due to security concerns.

Unlike China, Russia has considered the Taliban a terrorist organisation since February 2003, but this has not prevented it from having contacts with them. On August 13 last, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed: ‘We are in dialogue with all important political forces in Afghanistan, including the Afghan government and the Taliban, the representatives of Uzbeks and Tajiks and others”.

In fact, the representatives of the Taliban visited Moscow as early as November 2018 to participate in the peace Conference hosted by Russia. They also held two meetings in 2021 (on March 18 and July 8) to participate in tripartite consultations, Russia’s preferred format for dialogue. Two days before the Taliban took control of Kabul, Foreign Minister Lavrov envisaged an enlarged tripartite consultation mechanism to include Iran and India in addition to Pakistan. Outside Afghanistan, Russia has invested many resources in Central Asia and has considerable influence in the security field (Collective Security Treaty Organisation).

As important countries, many global problems are related to the relationship between China and Russia. Western countries, like colonies led by the United States of America, have preferred to have hammers in their hands and nails in their eyes. China and Russia have not followed the Western model, but have gone their separate ways. This is a hope for the countries that have been devastated by the US interference (former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, African countries, etc.), and it is also a hope for the Westphalian world order disrupted by the United States after the Twin Towers attack.

The development and progress of human civilisation cannot have only one pathway, nor should there be only one model. As a Chinese saying goes: “Those who are fit for themselves but forgets the others are abandoned by the people; those who deny themselves and rise again are admired by everybody”.

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A More Diverse Force: The Need for Diversity in the U.S. Intelligence Community

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As part of a hiring initiative meant to attract new and diverse hires, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) released a new recruitment video in March of 2021. The video featured a Hispanic female discussing her background and time in the CIA, as well as why she chose to serve her country. She says at one point, “I’m a woman of color. I am a mom. I am a cis-gender millennial who’s been diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorder…I did not sneak into CIA. My employment was not and is not the result of a fluke or a slip through the cracks. I earned my way in, and I earned my way up the ranks of this organization”.

The video showed a woman who cares for her family, cares for her country, and desires to see a difference be made in the world. However, some took issue with the advert though, though these criticisms came over a month after the video first was published and made available to the public.

In a tweet, the Republican Senator from Texas, Ted Cruz, said, “If you’re a Chinese communist, or an Iranian Mullah, or Kim Jong Un…would this scare you? We’ve come a long way from Jason Bourne”. Many criticized Cruz for his usage of Jason Bourne, a fictional CIA Paramilitary Operations Officer, yet he took to Twitter once again to clarify, saying, “My point is that CIA agents should be bad-asses—not woke, fragile flowers needing safe spaces”.

Donald Trump, Jr. tweeted “China & Russia are laughing their asses off watching CIA go full woke…If you think about it, wokeness is the kind of twisted PSYOP a spy agency would invent to destroy a country from the inside out”. Others, including popular conservative commentators like Dinesh D’Souza and Meghan McCain, also criticized the ad calling a “joke” or “insane” while others went as far to say that the CIA was “actively looking to recruit the most immodest, narcissistic, grotesquely self-serving people in the world”.

Criticism towards the ad did not purely come from the Conservative, rightist personalities either, but also members of the left. Left-leaning publications such as The Intercept and Jezebel both critiqued the ad. It seems that, from all sectors of American public and political life, this advert and total tactic was heavily derided; from members of the left, it was cringey and irrespective of the agency’s long and controversial history while, from members of the right, it was ineffective national security and intelligence policy.

However, what many seem to be forgetting is that diversity within the intelligence world is an extremely important factor in creating effective and accurate foreign policy and in gaining the most up to date and accurate intelligence.

Intelligence analysis is probably the most important part of the Intelligence Cycle and holds just as much, if not more, importance as the end result, the intelligence estimate or packet. To put it simply, if the analysis is corrupted in some way, shape, or form by either the analyst’s personal views or tainted by poorly verified intelligence, then the action taken based upon this intelligence could result in missteps or negative affects to U.S. policymakers, military units, or regions in which the intelligence affects. Throughout history, there are an abundance of examples in which intelligence analysts have misinterpreted situations due to their own biases about a nation, political ideology, or have been selected specifically to sort through intelligence in order to back up a preconceived opinion.

One of the best examples in showing how analysts’ personal views, both conscious and subconscious, can affect their overall analysis is the 1954 coup d’état of Guatemalan President Jacobo Árbenz.

The coup, which was given the CIA codename Operation PBSUCCESS, was a mission in which the U.S. government, via the CIA and U.S. State Department, engaged in fomenting a coup to remove Árbenz, the leftist president who had approved of agrarian reforms within Guatemala. To justify an invasion, members of the State Department and CIA tried to link Árbenz to Guatemalan communists, yet this proved very difficult as there was “no evidence that Arbenz himself was anything more than a European-style democratic socialist”. A CIA paper, published two months before the coup, also, “did not cite any direct contact between Guatemalan Communists and Moscow. The paper offered ideology, not facts…”. 

A master’s thesis written by a student at West Virginia University extensively and exclusively covers the CIA’s decision making process, detailing how, “CIA reports from the early 1950s also demonstrated this fear [of Communism]… The “red scare,” in essence, affected nearly all Americans. Many in the Eisenhower government also felt that Moscow had a nefarious hidden hand and controlled communist sympathizers around the globe,” while also noting that the, “ONI [Office of Naval Intelligence] did not feel that CIA had valid reasons or enough sources to reach the conclusion it did regarding Soviet intentions in Latin America”. The heightened fears of Communism and the Soviet Union that permeated the minds of analysts within the State Department and CIA (as well as the desires by some to ensure the survival of the United Fruit Company in the country) resulted in intelligence that was skewed to believing that the Guatemalan government was embracing Communism, when, even according to the CIA’s own histories, was baseless.

Based upon this example, as one can see, the intelligence provided to the U.S. government was based upon analyst biases and did not accurately reflect how the Guatemalan government under Árbenz operated nor how entrenched the Communists were in political life. The fear of Communism overwhelmed the amount of solid and fact-based analysis, resulting in an invasion that removed a democratically elected president.

This coup eventually resulted in the emplacement of a right-wing, military government, which would rule until 1996, overseeing a brutal civil war complete with death squads, acts of genocide committed by presidential administrations, political assassinations, and a drastic increase in governmental corruption. Members of the CIA who were involved in the operation too regretted their actions and acknowledged that the outcome did not benefit Guatemala, the U.S., or Latin America. Operation PBSUCCESS did not bring about a U.S.-friendly democracy, but a U.S.-friendly military dictatorship that engaged in war crimes and severely destabilized the entire country. The failure of this operation to bring about a democracy and U.S. intervention in the country in the first place was, in my own view and examination, based upon biased analyses by the CIA which promoted the view that Guatemala was becoming sympathetic to Communists and the operation itself shows just how important intelligence analysis is.

Not only is analysis an incredibly important tool within the intelligence cycle as a whole, but the analyst themselves are highly important. The analysis is only as good as the analyst and if the analyst is biased, limited in their outlook or worldview, or come from a sole section of society, then the analysis will reflect those beliefs. Most of the analysts involved in the Guatemalan operation were white and male, most likely coming from middle-class backgrounds and either having military service or Ivy League education or both. These beliefs and hiring processes which exclude persons beyond the majority of America’s populace can significantly hinder an agency and promote a poor world outlook. The majority of persons in countries in which the U.S. is involved, thinking of becoming involved, or are creating analyses in anticipation of potential foreign policies are not white or male nor from wealthy societies; they are, most often than not, of an extremely different mindset than many Americans, live in poverty or close to poverty, and have an immensely different culture. While the CIA has made some headway in this area, retired CIA case officers and analysts have made claims that the CIA (and the Intelligence Community as a whole) are severely underperforming and not effectively recruiting towards people from outside of that select pool.

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, Jr.’s comments about the CIA lowering their standards and fostering an environment in which the CIA now is ineffective at creating intelligence or defending the United States from foreign threats (not being “badass” enough) is nonsensical. If anything, the inclusion of persons who are not white or male, who have experience outside of the military, who are knowledgeable on issues beyond military, intelligence, and national defense/security makes for a more well-rounded force and an agency more effective at analyzing collected intelligence, crafting accurate and informed recommendations, and allowing past mistakes, the misreading of important political events, to take hold. Including strong, analytical persons from more minority backgrounds into the national security framework will perform wonders for American intelligence analysis and in making influential policy decisions.

To quote Marc Polymeropoulos, a retired CIA officer, “Diversity is an operational advantage. Simple as that. I want case officers who look like the UN”.

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Women Maoists (Naxalbari)

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Every now and then, Indian newspapers flash news about Maoist insurgents, including women being killed. They usually avoid mentioning how many soldiers were killed in encounters, whether fake or genuine.  Here is a glimpse of such news: A woman fighter, along with a male c-fighter, was killed in a clash with government forces in Odisha’s Malkagiri district (Press Trust of India, December 14, 2020).

In another incident, a woman Maoist was killed in an encounter with India’s security forces in Sukma district of Chhatisgarh  (PTI, October 13, 2010). A woman Maoist was killed near Anrapali forest (Visakhapatnam, Andhrapradesh). And, another woman Maoist, carrying Rs. 16 lac reward on her head was killed in Gadchiroli district of Maharashtra.

Sometimes there are pitched battles between the Indian forces and the Maoists, including women. For instance, there was a head-on confrontation between a Maoist group and government forces of over 1500 “jawan”, equipped with state-of-the-art weapons and helicopters at the Bijapur-Sukma border. Sans air power, the Maoists, armed only with machine guns, gunned down 22 soldiers belonging to Central Reserve Police Force, Commando Battalions for Resolute Action (Cobra), and Bastariya Battalion of the Central Reserve Police.

Why do women join the Maoist Movement?

They find the Maoist narrative of emancipation attractive. . Not only the low-caste women but also the high-caste ones joined the Maoist ranks in droves. About 30 to 40 per cent of combatants are Maoists. The status of women in the Indian society is no better than that of slaves. They are not supposed to form an opinion or dare express it. Even the high-caste women are supposed to be reticent and coy. They are tutored to be housewives confined to quadrilateral of their homes, rear children, and do household chores. The Maoist ideology ingrained the sense of empowerment in them. The Maoist manifesto teems with such words as “mahila sasahktikaran” (women’s empowerment), “raise their voices” (awash uthaunne), “get their voices represented” (mahilako awaj ko pratinidithyo) and “understand women’s grief” (mahila ko dukka bhujnne).

The Maoist struggle is commonly known as “the people’s war”. The “war” aims at abolishing the feudal system, and creating a democratic egalitarian society. The bulwark of the Maoists is rural population, lower castes and women. Women and men of all castes, classes, ethnic backgrounds and education levels joined the movement.

Pro-women manifesto

The Maoist has incorporated women’s emancipation in their ideological manifesto, actually a “40-point demand-document”. The gender equality is enshrined in points 19, 20 and 21, mentioned heretofore:

“19. Patriarchal exploitation and discrimination against women should be stopped, girls should be allowed to access paternal property as their brothers.

20. All racial exploitation and suppression should be stopped. Where ethnic communities are in the majority, they should be allowed to form their own autonomous governments.”

People’s courts

The Maoist proved their heart-felt commitment to the manifesto by punishing rapists, wresting back the usurped land of single women, penalising men for polygamy, and prohibiting the sale of liquor as drunken men more often beat the women.  Jan adalats (“people’s courts”) ferociously uphold women’s rights on issues of social and domestic violence.

Equal authority

Women were given political or combat position on the basis of merit. Untouchability and gender discrimination has been abolished. The points 19, 20 and 21 of the Maoist manifesto relating to women stress the need to transform state and customary laws to redress gender inequality at all levels.

In 2002, in recognition of their female constituency, the Maoists introduced the so-called “prachanda path,” creating a women’s department in the Central Committee. In several cases, it is the women who slay the incorrigible feudal tyrants. The women realise that they are “agents of change” who have to fight out repression in all its manifestations.  The women have become politically aware that they have the right make decisions about their marriages, children’s education, and other everyday gender needs.

Indian police admit it was the women fighters who were in the vanguard of a deadly attack in Chhattisgarh, where 24 people, including some top politicians, were killed.

 Because of its liberal manifesto, the insurgency has spread to 11 states, with Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha as epicenters. It has become entrenched in all central and eastern Indian states, often referred to as the “Red Corridor.

Fake news

Having failed to subdue the Maoists, the government occasionally resorts to spreading false news about deaths of Maoist leaders. For instance, Hindustan Times dated June 24, 2021 reported that Maoist leader Haribushan, carrying a reward of Rs. 40 lac on his head, had died from COVID19. Her wife rebutted the news (Parveen Kumar Bandari Hans News Service October 5, 2021). “More than 16 senior and middle level level communist leaders have died in the last couple of months due to COVID19…Two senior most leaders of Bastar Ganga, including Dandakaryana Special Zone Committee members Ganga and Sobhroi have died due to infection in the last couple of months”.

Sympathy with Naxals is an offence

In the Bhim Koregaon planted-letters case, several intellectuals and rights activists including Navalakha were declared “traitors” by the Indian government. They were even accused of having links with Kashmiri militants. Fake letters were inputted into their computers. They were even accused of being Pakistan’s intelligence agencies agents through Ghulam Nabi Fai, a US-based Kashmiri leader. Fei has served two-year imprisonment in the USA for having illegally received funds from the inter-services intelligence of Pakistan.

Urban militia

The Maoist are trying to disseminate their message to urban areas also. They understand that the minorities are fed up with the regressive caste system. The rebels want to radicalise youngsters and already have carved out a strong network in premier universities of Delhi and Kolkata. The Maoist want to  create an urban militia to fight the oppressive enforcement machinery of the states and Indian Union.  They are believed to have infiltrated the government intelligence machinery to stay abreact of government’s tactics.

Coordination strategy

The Maoists make no bones about their plan to set up a “coordination network among like-minded outfits in India, Bangladesh and Nepal. They want unhindered movement of left-wing extremists in these territories to exchange arms, ammunition and information”. To counter the Maoist strategy, India rushed its diplomats to capitals of neighbouring countries to plug up the porous border and obstruct the insurgents’ free movement.

Gurkha trainers

In addition, India launched Special teams for simultaneous searches in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka at suspected Maoist training centres and hideouts. The effort was counter-productive because India’s national Investigation Agency framed charges against the innocent people.

During searches, the Indian forces were surprised to know that the retired Gorkha soldiers of both British and the Indian Army harbour sympathy for the Maoists.

They trained the Maoists to use fire arms efficiently. Some Maoists demonstrated their alacrity and military sills in planning bank robberies, and extorting ransom from rich businessmen. Besides arms and ammunition snatched from police stations, the Maoists are believed to have amassed over Rs. 5 billion from bank heists. The general impression in people’s minds is that the Indian forces dare not pursue the Maoists in forests. The insurgents pick up places where to ambush the security forces, and make off with booty with impunity.

Salwa Judum (purification hut)

Having failed to arrest momentum of the movement, India organised a private army ofSalwa Judum ledbyMahendra Karma From among the villagers.  To boost their morale, they were given honorary rank of “special police officer. “As a workaround, the government sponsored counter-militias and split tribes into those “for” and “against” Maoists. Those willing to fight the Maoists were offered guns, money and honorary police ranks.

The Maoists shot dead Mahendra Karma and several members of the ruling Indian National Congress whose brainchild the Salwa Judum was.  It later transpired that the salwa judum had been cobbled up with help of child soldiers recruited under duress or financial allurement. It was involved in gross human rights violations. When People’s Union of Civil Liberties in India brought its atrocities to the Supreme Court’s notice, it declared it illegal in 2011.

Concluding remarks

Charu Mazumdar started the movement as a “revolutionary opposition” in 1965.  The world came to know of it in 1967 when the Beijing Radio reported “peasants’ armed struggle” at Naxalbari (Siliguri division of West Bengal). In July 1972, the police arrested Charu Mazumdar and tortured him to death on the night of July 27-28. The Naxalite ideology has great appeal for marginalized strata (particularly dalit and adivasis) of India’s caste-ridden society. The Naxalites Central Committee’s resolution (1980) visualises creating a base for spreading people’s democratic revolution. It would include : ‘Homogenous contiguous forested area around Bastar Division (since divided into Bastar, Dantewada and Kanker Districts of Chhatisgarh) and adjoining areas of Adilabad, Karimnagar, Khammam, East Godavari Districts of Andhra Pradesh, Chandrapur and Garchehiroli district of Maharastra, Balaghat districts of Madhya Pradesh, Malkagiri and Koraput districts of Orissa. The Naxalites want to carve out an independent zone extending from Nepal through Bihar and then to the Dandakarnaya region extending up to Tamil Nadu to give them access to the Bay of Bengal as well as the Indian Ocean. 

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