A decade ago, the worst financial crisis in generations sent shockwaves around the world, forcing many emerging markets and developing economies to tap into hard-won fiscal space to stimulate their economies. Today, much of that fiscal space has been depleted, leaving these economies vulnerable should another economic shock materialize.
“After a long and protracted recovery, economies across the globe are expanding,” said Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Director of Research at the World Bank. “But periodic downturns are an inevitable feature of the global economy, and developing countries should take action now to put themselves on a firmer footing.”
Franziska Ohnsorge, Manager in the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group, addressed the issue of countries’ readiness to cope with an economic shock at a recent Policy Research Talk. Drawing on a new database covering 200 countries, and using 28 indicators over 3 decades, she described how emerging market and developing economies’ fiscal space has evolved.
These indicators show that the fiscal positions of many of these economies have deteriorated in multiple dimensions over the past decade. Government debt has grown steadily since 2007, and as of 2017 stands at over 53 percent of GDP on average. Prior to the global financial crisis, that figure was 46 percent.
This growth in debt has been driven by a reversal from fiscal surpluses prior to the crisis to deficits in every year since 2009. In 2017, EMDEs ran a deficit of about 4 percent of GDP, their biggest since the crisis. Three-quarters of EMDEs are currently adding to their stock of debt—and that is in the absence of a major global shock since 2008-09.
Should they be subject to a shock similar to previous episodes of financial stress, nearly all EMDEs would set their government debt on a rising trajectory, at current spending levels. To maintain constant debt levels in the face of a shock, EMDEs would have to make drastic cuts to government spending, equivalent to 8 percent of GDP on average, Ohnsorge said.
Other aspects of EMDE fiscal positions have also slipped. External debt has been creeping up in recent years, and now exceeds 50 percent of GDP on average in EMDEs. At the same time, sovereign debt ratings have been trending steadily downward since 2011, reflecting growing investor wariness. The average maturity of sovereign debt has likewise been heading downwards since 2009, increasing turnover risk.
“If a crisis were to happen today, government debt would be only slightly smaller compared to the run-up to earlier crises, and deficits would be much wider,” said Ohnsorge. “Are EMDEs ready for the next shock? The data suggest not, at least in some dimensions.”
One bright spot: foreign-currency denominated government debt has held broadly steady as a percentage of all government debt. Exchange rate risk has proven to be a dangerous feature of past crises.
In part, the decline in EMDEs’ fiscal positions has reflected appropriate fiscal policies, Ohnsorge said. In particular, EMDEs switched towards countercyclical fiscal policy during the 2008-09 crisis. In decades prior to that, EMDEs increased government spending during economic expansions and cut spending during recessions. However, that pattern reversed between 2008 and 2014, resulting in negative structural fiscal balances.
Not All Fiscal Stimulus Is Equal
Even more troubling is that fiscal stimulus appears to be less effective when an economy’s fiscal space is narrower. When governments engage in fiscal stimulus to prop up a weak economy, households, investors, and other actors in the economy may respond in ways that dampen the stimulus. Households may cut back on their expenditures in the expectation of future tax hikes, a long-standing idea in economics known as the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem. Investors may become concerned about sovereign credit risk, resulting in an increase in interest rates.
New empirical research conducted by Ohnsorge and her colleagues finds that not only do both households and investors counteract a stimulus in many situations, but the dampening of stimulus is worse where government fiscal space is smaller. In more extreme cases where government debt is high—in excess of 60 percent of GDP—fiscal stimulus could even be counter-productive, resulting in a decline in GDP.
Consequently, the necessity for EMDEs to firm up their fiscal positions before another crisis hits is more urgent than ever. Historical patterns underscore the timeliness of this precaution: the current global expansion has lasted seven years, still short of the post-1960 average of 10 years, but not far off. The current U.S. expansion has lasted 33 quarters, well beyond the post-1960 average of 24 quarters. EMDEs still have time to take action, but the clock is ticking.
Bringing cultural and creative industries back in the game
The lockdown and social exclusion interventions have highlighted the value of arts and culture for people’s mental wellbeing – and, likely, health, due to the increasingly recorded psychosomatic effects of cultural access. But their benefits do not stop there. In terms of economic impact and jobs, the cultural and creative fields are important in and of themselves. They encourage creativity all around the economy and lead without any doubt to a variety of other socially beneficial networks, such as education, inclusion, urban regeneration just to name a few. Despite their vital role in our societies, culture and creatives industries are among the hardest hit since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, with major cities also having the highest concentration of work openings.
In these unprecedented times, with multiple crisis emerging almost on a daily basis, one after another, people – and local actors are for most, all round the world, turning to public support, desperately hoping for strong actions. Economy recovery plans announced by governments have been a first very encouraging sign. But despite all efforts, following a review of the overall landscape of the cultural sector across the globe, policies to help businesses and employees during the pandemic may not be well-suited to the sector’s non-traditional business models and modes of employment. Policies should harness the economic and social impacts of culture in their wider recovery packages and efforts to transform local economies, in addition to short-term funding for artists and businesses from both the public and private sectors.
According to the OECD report ‘’Culture shock: COVID-19 and the cultural and creative sectors’’, Cultural and Creative Sectors (CCS),including tourism, are among the most impacted by the present situation, with job losses varying from 0.8 to 5.5 percent of total employment across the creatives sector. It has been witnessed that social distancing policies have the greatest impact on venues-based industries (such as museums, performing arts, live music, concerts, cinema, and so on). The sudden decline in sales has put their financial stability in jeopardy, resulting in lower-wage earnings and layoffs, with ramifications for their suppliers’ value chain, both innovative and non-creative.
Because of a variety of factors, the consequences can last a long time. In the coming months, if not years, the effects of the recession and a decline in cultural sector investment might have an impact on the development of cultural products and services, as well as their diversity. Lower levels of international and domestic tourism, a drop in purchasing power, and reductions to public and private funds for arts and culture, especially at the local level, may accelerate this worrying growth in the medium term. And unfortunately, this is only the tip of the iceberg.
And it goes without saying that the downsizing of cultural and artistic industries would have a detrimental effect on cities and regions in terms of employment and revenues, levels of innovation, public well-being, and the richness and inclusion of communities in the absence of responsive public funding and recovery strategies. This though is inspiring dread. With vaccination programs promising us to get our ‘’normal lives” back in a near future, can we imagine actually living in a place with less theatres, less museums, less creativity? At a time when some major cultural institutions are on the verge of bankruptcy, having to choose between keeping their loyal employees or selling a master piece, this horror script is closer than ever. On top of that, the crisis has brought to light the financial vulnerability of some of the sector’s producers. Indeed, microbusinesses, non-profit organizations, and artistic practitioners make up the majority of the cultural and creative industries, which are frequently on the edge of financial viability. For the provision of innovative goods and services, broad public and private cultural institutions and companies depend on this diverse cultural ecosystem.
The dysfunctionality of public assistance programs that are inadequately applied to cultural and creative sectors business models and job opportunities has created more trouble for this sector. In view of the pandemic, national and local governments around the world have indeed adopted a slew of initiatives to support workers and companies, but many of them, especially those not aimed at CCS, are unsuited to the industry’s peculiarities. Jobs and state benefits programs are not always available or tailored to the modern and non-standard types of work that are more unstable and prevalent in the CCS. And this is how we fail at bringing back to life such a vital sector. From an economic point of view, but also societal.
But there is hope. There are solutions. Proposals. Specific policies, targeting the core of the problem, can be implemented at corporate and government level to enhance the cultural sector’s growth. Indeed, first of all, both private and public sectors need to work hands in hands if we want to give a chance to the creative industries to recover from this pandemic, and be part of the global recovery we are all craving for. In the short term, it should be made sure at government level that public support for COVID-19 relief does not discriminate against cultural and creative sector businesses and employees because of their non-traditional business models and job contracts. Furthermore, initiatives shall be taken to increase the effectiveness of policy initiatives, CCS network organizations, self-employed workers, small cultural and innovative enterprises, and sectoral employer organizations were consulted. By simplifying eligibility requirements and making them open to hybrid types of jobs, gaps in self-employment support systems can be filled. In addition, non-profit organizations should be included in funding programs aimed at helping small companies retain workers along with assurances that the funding for cultural organizations exceeds artifacts. On the medium and long term, private and government bodies should promote greater complementarities between culture and other policy sectors. For instance, advances in the cultural and creative sectors can also benefit education, especially in the use of new digital tools based on gaming technology for example and new forms of cultural material. Greater collaboration between health care and the cultural and artistic sectors will help to enhance well-being, prevent disease, or postpone its occurrence, encourage the development of healthier behaviors, and prevent social isolation. Development of new local cultural tourism strategies that resolve several large-scale or intensive tour operators’ socially and environmentally unsustainable practices. There is indeed a very wide range of possibilities. Endless possibilities within our reach. The potential is unlimited if only we decide to seriously consider it.
Innovative ways to resume international travel
International travel was predictably impacted as a result of covid 19 and the tourism industry suffered severe losses.
According to the UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism organization) barometer, the period from January-October 2020 witnessed a whopping 72% drop in tourist arrivals (international tourist arrivals dropped by 900 Million when compared to the January-October 2019 period). The loss in export revenues, year on year, from the tourist sector were a staggering 945 Billion USD. Tourist arrivals across regions witnessed a drop. According to the UNWTO barometer, the drop in tourism would cause a loss of 2 Trillion USD to the global economy.
Countries looking to resume international flights
During the midst of the pandemic, agreements were signed to facilitate essential travel between various countries (priority was given to workers, students or individuals who had to travel for emergency purposes).
Countries which have been successful in dealing with the pandemic have been looking to gradually resume international flights. Since October 2020, Singapore whose economy is significantly dependent upon tourism had signed agreements with certain countries to ensure that travel for important purposes was less restrictive — either the quarantine period was reduced, or in some cases was not required at all.
New Zealand will be allowing quarantine free travel from Australia for the first time from April 19. New Zealand PM, Jacinda Ardern:
‘The Trans-Tasman travel bubble represents a start of a new chapter in our COVID response and recovery, one that people have worked so hard at’
Australia has been permitting travellers from New Zealand to enter most parts of the country without quarantine, though this has not been reciprocated.
A travel bubble has also opened between Taiwan (which has reported a little over 1,000 cases and 10 deaths) and the Island of Palau (which has reported 0 deaths) where travellers need not quarantine themselves (there are a number of other restrictions though).
Vaccine Passports, Digital Pass and differing perspectives
As countries get ready to open up travel, there has been a debate with regard to using ‘vaccine passports’ (these are documents which show that travellers have been vaccinated against Covid-19 or recently tested negative for the virus).
One country which is using this experiment domestically is Israel. It has issued a document known as ‘Green Pass’ to those who have been vaccinated or if they have developed immunity. This Green Pass can be used for entry into gyms, hotels, restaurants and theatres. The UK and US too are mooting the idea of introducing such an arrangement. This idea has faced fervent opposition in both countries. In UK, opposition parties Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP) have opposed the idea of such a covid certification document. The reasons cited for opposition are concerns with regard to ‘equity, ethics and privacy’. The UK government has stated that a covid status certificate would not be introduced before June, and trials of various schemes to ensure safe opening up of the UK economy would carry on.
In the US, Republicans are opposing the idea of a vaccine passport saying that such an idea would be an attack on personal freedoms. Donald Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr urged Republicans to ‘vocally and aggressively’ stand up against vaccine passports.
If one were to look at international travel, International Airport Transport Association (IATA) has introduced a travel pass, a digital certificate, which will confirm a flyer’s COVID-19 test result and vaccination status. Singapore will be accepting travellers using this mobile digital pass from May 2021.While the pass has been tested by Singapore Airlines, 20 airlines (including Emirates and Malaysia Airlines) are in the process of testing the pass.
While one of the pitfalls of a covid status certificate or Vaccine passport is the impingement upon privacy, it has also been argued that developing countries will be at a disadvantage given the relatively slow rate of vaccination in the developing world. While remarking in the context of Africa,Dr. John Nkengasong the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said:
‘We are already in a situation where we don’t have vaccines, and it will be extremely unfortunate that countries impose a travel requirement of immunization certificates whereas the rest of the world has not had the chance to have access to vaccines.’
In conclusion, it is important for innovative ways to resume international travel. Safety needs to be balanced with equity, for this it is imperative that all actors engage in a constructive manner. A number of observers have suggested that vaccine passports/covid status certificates should be made optional, and that there is nothing wrong in using technology per se but it should not be thrust on anyone. The fight against the pandemic and revival of international travel are a golden opportunity for countries to reverse the increasing sense of insularity and inequity which has risen in recent years.
Will the trade war between China and the United States come to end?
Authors: Raihan Ronodipuro& Hafizha Dwi Ulfa*
The recent trade conflict between the United States and China has had a direct effect on some of the world’s economic players. These two countries are attacking each other with declarations and a trade war; the relationship between the two countries can be defined as a love-hate relationship because the two countries have a lot of mistrust for each other, but they still need each other.
The United States requires China as a global source of low-wage labor as well as a market for marketing American products, and China requires the United States as an investor in its companies as well as a market for marketing Chinese products known for their low-cost. What makes these two countries to be so cold to one another? To answer the question, let’s go back to when this trade war saga started.
Donald Trump is a successful businessman who owns enterprises and corporations all over the world. His candidacy for President of the United States in 2016 poses several concerns, including whether Trump is eligible to run for office. Trump replied by becoming the 45th President of the United States, succeeding Obama.
Trump adopted a protectionism agenda in order to shield the US economy from what he referred to as the “robber from China.” Trump has released a law stating that all steel and aluminum products entering the United States from Europe, China, Canada, and Mexico would be subject to 25% and 10% tariffs, respectively. Of course, China is outraged that the United States issued this order, as well as a related policy on all tribal products. Automobile components, as well as agriculture and fishery products, are manufactured in the United States.
In addition to the tariff battle, President Trump has expressly demanded that the TikTok and WeChat apps be prohibited from running in the United States. We know that these two technologies are very common in the larger population. Giant corporations, such as Huawei, have not survived Trump’s “rampage,” with the Chinese telecommunications giant accused of leaking US national security data to China through Huawei’s contract with US security authorities.
As a result, many US firms were forced to cancel contracts with Huawei or face sanctions. Google is one of the companies impacted by this contract termination, which means that all Huawei smartphone devices manufactured in 2019 and after will lack any of Google’s services such as the Google Play Store, Gmail, and YouTube.
Many of the world’s economic organizations predict a 0.7 percent drop in GDP in 2018 and a 2% growth in 2020. Coupled with the Coronavirus pandemic, the global economy has become increasingly stagnant, with global economic growth expected to be less than 0%.
Amid the tough trade negotiations between the United States and China, COVID-19 pandemic is also affecting their relationship. The United States domestic pressure to contain the pandemic, has led Trump to accuse China of being the virus spread source. As a consequence, Trump put the US-China future relations at stake with his “China’s Virus” label. Besides, the United States absence from World Health Organization (WHO) during Trump administration along the pandemic, that become a new opportunity for China to expand its influence. China uses the Covid-19 pandemic issue as an opportunity.
China’s successful in controlling the pandemic, has also made China confident in facing the United States. Meanwhile, the United States is increasingly threatened by its position. Moreover, the United States dependence on overcoming Covid-19 which requires relations from many parties, including China, makes the United States’ position weak as a superpower.
This is what we hoped for when Biden took office. Many consider President Joe Biden to be willing to “soften” the United States’ stance on the trade war with China. After his inauguration on January 20, 2021, Biden has made many contacts with Beijing to address a variety of issues, one of which is the continuation of the trade war.
The United States and China agreed to meet in Anchorage, Alaska, on March 18-20, 2021, to discuss this issue. The meeting produced no bright spots in the escalation of the US-China trade war, but rather posed questions concerning the Middle East, Xinjiang, North Korea, and Taiwan.
The Biden administration stressed that it does not plan to abolish various regulations passed during the Trump administration’s term in the trade war with China, but it also does not intend to employ the same negotiation strategies as the Trump administration, which seemed to be very offensive. Besides, the Biden administration must be careful, If Biden prioritizes domestic challenges then China has room to push its agendas, including in the field of technology and territorial issues
Furthermore, the Biden administration’s policy has shifted from imposing tariffs on China to investing in industries that Biden believes are less competitive with China, such as nanotechnology and communication networks.
In conclusion, the trade war between the United States and China has ushered in a new age in the global economy, one in which China is going forward to replace the United States’ status as a world economic force, something that the United States fears.
The door to investment is being opened as broad as possible, the private sector is being encouraged to participate (under tight government oversight, of course), the cost of living is being raised, and the defense spending is being expanded. Today, we can see how the Chinese economy is advancing, becoming the world’s second largest economy after the United States, selling goods all over the world to challenge the United States’ status, and even having the world’s largest military after the United States.
The rise of China is what the US is scared of; after initially dismissing China’s problem as insignificant, the US under the Trump administration takes China and Xi Jinping’s problems seriously by starting a trade war that is still underway.
Will this trade war enter a new chapter in the Biden presidency, where the relationship with China will be more ‘calm’ and the trade war can be ended, or can it stalemate and maintain the stance as during the previous president’s presidency?
*Hafizha Dwi Ulfa is a Research Assistant of the Indonesian International Relations Study Center (IIRS Center) with analysis focus on ASEAN, East Asia, and Indo-Pacific studies.
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