Turkish Economy have experienced great developments during last six decades, more than most of countries around the world. Accelerating Turkish economic growth made mainly by export-led policy (after 1980) and the economical reforms (after 2003) when current president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan started his role as PM.
Some of the achievements have been reached as a result of Turkey’s geopolitical position, where is a connection node between producers and consumers of energy and industrial goods and some could be awarded to the government’s plans, mainly for free international trade, developing tourism industry, privatization, earning income and accessing the chip energy sources via it’s energy transiting plans.
Turkish economic growth analysis in a glance
Turkish GDP was increased to $ 875.748 billion at 2016 where it was just $ 13.995 billion at 1960 (from worldbank.com), a wonderful raising by more than 60 times that is faster than world average but not enough uninterrupted to be compared with some pioneer economies such as Korea republic.
The sharpest rate of Turkish economical growth was experienced in 1970s decade (%223.08), mostly resulted by boosting governmental spending after 1971 military intervention. The biggest growth in amount was in 2010s decade that experienced increasing $ 411.92 billion during 6 years. Comparing Turkey’s achievement with Korea Republic’s shows lack of harmony and Continuity in Turkish economical growth, while Korea’s economy moved from $ 4.23 billion (32% of Turkish) in 1960s decade to $ 1,290 billion (1.48 of Turkish) in 2010s duration.
Main growth areas
Ruling party’s economical reforms, such as strong domestic consumption, cheap credit and large financial inflows, enhancing the flexibility of the labour market and boosting the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector through greater competition, could enhance it’s rank to world’s 17th in 2015.Some sectors are playing main role in this economic leap, such as Tourism while could attract more than 36 million tourists In 2015 that raised Turkey’s revenues to 31 billion USD per year (from: www.mfa.gov.tr), as well as Privatization that it’s earning was increased significantly from 8 billion USD in the period of 1986-2003 to 58 billion USD between 2004-2015 (from the same source). Turkish contracting services abroad have successfully completed 8693 projects in 107 countries across the globe between 1972-2015, with a total value of 276 billion USD between 2002-2015 (from the same source). As well as Turkish economy could host more than 46,000 foreign active firms and 916 liaison offices of foreign firms, as well as the total amount of foreign direct investments exceeded 165 billion USD as of the end of 2015.
The same sharp raising could be traced in Turkey’s foreign trade during last decades, too, when Turkey’s export was raised to $142.53 billion at 2016 from $12.96 billion at 1990 (%1100) that is sharper than growth in it’s importing, where it was changed from $22.30 billion to $198.62 billion during the same period of time (%891) but the balance of Turkey’s trade is negative yet and extended to $56.09 billion.
An Energy Hub
Turkey’s plan for rolling as the hub of energy between main producers in middle east, Caspian and Russia to main customers in Europe entered to a new phase by signing the Turkish Stream contract with Russia in 2014. Now 4 operating natural gas pipelines through Turkey with capacity of more than 2.3 Tcf are supplying Turkey’s demand and transiting gas to the Europe customers. Also 3 projects in the construction phase and 3 new proposed projects with total capacity of more than 4.8 Tcf could make Turkey one of the main Energy transiting hubs in the world that could powering it’s geopolitical plans as well as giving significant economical advantages.
As well as, 3 Crude oil pipelines from Baku, Kirkuk (Iraq) and Kurdistan Government of Iraq with capacity of more than 3.4 million barrels of oil per day are transiting Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Iraq’s crude oil to/via Turkey. Turkey’s Ceyhan oil port covers 1.44 sq.km, storage capacity of about 7 million barrels of oil and annual export capacity of more than 50 million tones of oil annually (from: bp.com).
Increasing demands in European countries for energy carriers, mainly the natural gas as a cleaner and chipper product and on the other the natural gas producers’ need for chipper and operational solution to reach the Europe market, make Turkish ways more highlighted and Turkey’s governments are trying to catch this opportunity, economically and politically.
Transiting 7.1 Tcf of natural gas and 3.4 million barrels of oil could make Turkey one of the main energy transition hubs around the world that not only make significant economical benefits but also could support it’s political plans such as accession of Turkey to the European Union, the desire is sometimes closed and sometime far.
Turkey’s in economical crisis
Despite all the longterm growth in indictors, Turkey’s economy is facing new crisis during last 3 years, especially after some internal clashes and tensions with with Russia, united states and European countries. Turkish Liras’ exchange rate to foreign currencies is dropped sharply and reached to 3.88 to USD (at 2017, December) from 1.8 in 2012 (less than half, just during 5 years).
Also inflation rate is raised to more than % 10.9 at 2017, when it was decreased to 7.7% at 2015 (from IMF).
The GDP per capita that was raised to about $ 12,500 at 2013 is declined again to $ 10,800 at 2016 for three consequently years (the same level at 2008).
The situation in some other indicators such as “population below poverty line” are showing more shortages or crisis, when it was raised to more than %21 at 2016.
Continuing this conditions could abduct the chances of improvements for Turkish government and people while it’s most needed for both to hold over the dreams.
Future of Turkey’s economy – Short term provision
The short term provisions of Turkish economy are not optimistic enough, especially after several diplomatic and economical clashes between Turkey and it’s main partners during last three years.
Russia imposed sanctions against Turkey at 2015, November that affected Turkish economy quickly but it couldn’t get rid of them even after 7 months of removing most of these sanctions.
Turkey – Russia clashes on downing of a Russian fighter jet in 2015 led to sanctions
Turkish economy that has been affected quickly by sanctions imposed by Russia (at 2015, November) doesn’t get rid of them completely, even after more than 7 months of easing tensions and lifting the most of sanctions. In the case of removing all Russian sanctions, it couldn’t bring relief to Turkey’s struggling economy as it’s faced to a bigger crisis arising by political clashes with European countries, especially Netherland, Germany and Belgium and next with USA.
Furthermore, effects of internal clashes (especially after failed coup in 2016) and hosting million refugees from Syrian internal war made the Turkey’s economy battered which was one of the best – performing until 2014.
The Turkey’s economy could experience new small growths by easing the internal and international conflicts before next elections on 2019 but not as was before 2014.
Now it’s time for Turkey to select it’s ambitious plans for being one of the main energy hubs in the world that could affect on global energy markets and having rapid growing economies or drowned in diverse economical crisis.