Turkish Economy have experienced great developments during last six decades, more than most of countries around the world. Accelerating Turkish economic growth made mainly by export-led policy (after 1980) and the economical reforms (after 2003) when current president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan started his role as PM.
Some of the achievements have been reached as a result of Turkey’s geopolitical position, where is a connection node between producers and consumers of energy and industrial goods and some could be awarded to the government’s plans, mainly for free international trade, developing tourism industry, privatization, earning income and accessing the chip energy sources via it’s energy transiting plans.
Turkish economic growth analysis in a glance
Turkish GDP was increased to $ 875.748 billion at 2016 where it was just $ 13.995 billion at 1960 (from worldbank.com), a wonderful raising by more than 60 times that is faster than world average but not enough uninterrupted to be compared with some pioneer economies such as Korea republic.
The sharpest rate of Turkish economical growth was experienced in 1970s decade (%223.08), mostly resulted by boosting governmental spending after 1971 military intervention. The biggest growth in amount was in 2010s decade that experienced increasing $ 411.92 billion during 6 years. Comparing Turkey’s achievement with Korea Republic’s shows lack of harmony and Continuity in Turkish economical growth, while Korea’s economy moved from $ 4.23 billion (32% of Turkish) in 1960s decade to $ 1,290 billion (1.48 of Turkish) in 2010s duration.
Main growth areas
Ruling party’s economical reforms, such as strong domestic consumption, cheap credit and large financial inflows, enhancing the flexibility of the labour market and boosting the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector through greater competition, could enhance it’s rank to world’s 17th in 2015.Some sectors are playing main role in this economic leap, such as Tourism while could attract more than 36 million tourists In 2015 that raised Turkey’s revenues to 31 billion USD per year (from: www.mfa.gov.tr), as well as Privatization that it’s earning was increased significantly from 8 billion USD in the period of 1986-2003 to 58 billion USD between 2004-2015 (from the same source). Turkish contracting services abroad have successfully completed 8693 projects in 107 countries across the globe between 1972-2015, with a total value of 276 billion USD between 2002-2015 (from the same source). As well as Turkish economy could host more than 46,000 foreign active firms and 916 liaison offices of foreign firms, as well as the total amount of foreign direct investments exceeded 165 billion USD as of the end of 2015.
The same sharp raising could be traced in Turkey’s foreign trade during last decades, too, when Turkey’s export was raised to $142.53 billion at 2016 from $12.96 billion at 1990 (%1100) that is sharper than growth in it’s importing, where it was changed from $22.30 billion to $198.62 billion during the same period of time (%891) but the balance of Turkey’s trade is negative yet and extended to $56.09 billion.
An Energy Hub
Turkey’s plan for rolling as the hub of energy between main producers in middle east, Caspian and Russia to main customers in Europe entered to a new phase by signing the Turkish Stream contract with Russia in 2014. Now 4 operating natural gas pipelines through Turkey with capacity of more than 2.3 Tcf are supplying Turkey’s demand and transiting gas to the Europe customers. Also 3 projects in the construction phase and 3 new proposed projects with total capacity of more than 4.8 Tcf could make Turkey one of the main Energy transiting hubs in the world that could powering it’s geopolitical plans as well as giving significant economical advantages.
As well as, 3 Crude oil pipelines from Baku, Kirkuk (Iraq) and Kurdistan Government of Iraq with capacity of more than 3.4 million barrels of oil per day are transiting Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Iraq’s crude oil to/via Turkey. Turkey’s Ceyhan oil port covers 1.44 sq.km, storage capacity of about 7 million barrels of oil and annual export capacity of more than 50 million tones of oil annually (from: bp.com).
Increasing demands in European countries for energy carriers, mainly the natural gas as a cleaner and chipper product and on the other the natural gas producers’ need for chipper and operational solution to reach the Europe market, make Turkish ways more highlighted and Turkey’s governments are trying to catch this opportunity, economically and politically.
Transiting 7.1 Tcf of natural gas and 3.4 million barrels of oil could make Turkey one of the main energy transition hubs around the world that not only make significant economical benefits but also could support it’s political plans such as accession of Turkey to the European Union, the desire is sometimes closed and sometime far.
Turkey’s in economical crisis
Despite all the longterm growth in indictors, Turkey’s economy is facing new crisis during last 3 years, especially after some internal clashes and tensions with with Russia, united states and European countries. Turkish Liras’ exchange rate to foreign currencies is dropped sharply and reached to 3.88 to USD (at 2017, December) from 1.8 in 2012 (less than half, just during 5 years).
Also inflation rate is raised to more than % 10.9 at 2017, when it was decreased to 7.7% at 2015 (from IMF).
The GDP per capita that was raised to about $ 12,500 at 2013 is declined again to $ 10,800 at 2016 for three consequently years (the same level at 2008).
The situation in some other indicators such as “population below poverty line” are showing more shortages or crisis, when it was raised to more than %21 at 2016.
Continuing this conditions could abduct the chances of improvements for Turkish government and people while it’s most needed for both to hold over the dreams.
Future of Turkey’s economy – Short term provision
The short term provisions of Turkish economy are not optimistic enough, especially after several diplomatic and economical clashes between Turkey and it’s main partners during last three years.
Russia imposed sanctions against Turkey at 2015, November that affected Turkish economy quickly but it couldn’t get rid of them even after 7 months of removing most of these sanctions.
Turkey – Russia clashes on downing of a Russian fighter jet in 2015 led to sanctions
Turkish economy that has been affected quickly by sanctions imposed by Russia (at 2015, November) doesn’t get rid of them completely, even after more than 7 months of easing tensions and lifting the most of sanctions. In the case of removing all Russian sanctions, it couldn’t bring relief to Turkey’s struggling economy as it’s faced to a bigger crisis arising by political clashes with European countries, especially Netherland, Germany and Belgium and next with USA.
Furthermore, effects of internal clashes (especially after failed coup in 2016) and hosting million refugees from Syrian internal war made the Turkey’s economy battered which was one of the best – performing until 2014.
The Turkey’s economy could experience new small growths by easing the internal and international conflicts before next elections on 2019 but not as was before 2014.
Now it’s time for Turkey to select it’s ambitious plans for being one of the main energy hubs in the world that could affect on global energy markets and having rapid growing economies or drowned in diverse economical crisis.
Report: CPEC offers enormous potential to Boost Pakistan Economy
With investments in road, railways and ports, the $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) offers enormous potential for Pakistan to boost its economy, reduce poverty, spread benefits widely and help those likely to be affected by the new trade route, a new report says.
The report, entitled “The Web of Transport Corridors in South Asia”, published by the Asian Development Bank, the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, and the World Bank, discusses several economic corridors including CPEC
“The largest economic gains from investing in transport corridors may arise from urbanization and job creation around this new infrastructure, rather than from many more vehicles using it”, said one of the report’s authors, World Bank economist Martin Melecky, who added: “not all corridor investments are equally successful in creating large economic surpluses that spread fairly throughout society.”
The report notes that the many transport corridors proposed across Asia would cost trillions of dollars to implement, far exceeding the financing resources available. Hence, countries need to prioritize the most promising corridors that will deliver the expected transformative impacts for their economies and people. Engineering designs and geopolitical considerations could be important, but sound economic analysis is the key to designing truly successful corridors, the report argues.
The ability of large-scale transport investments to generate wider economic benefits depends on the population density in the areas they cross. Their capacity to spur structural transformation along the way depends on complementary factors around the transport corridors, such as the skills of the local population or restrictions on local land use. The new transport infrastructure must come with the means for people to take advantage of the improved connectivity right from the start.
“The upcoming Khyber Pass Economic Corridor project is a positive example, where trade facilitation and the development of local economic activities are explicitly integrated in the design of the project”, said Illango Patchamuthu, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan.
The report reviews the international experience with economic corridors, from the Pacific Ocean Belt in Japan in the 1960s to high-speed train networks in Europe more recently. It also analyzes the impacts of the Golden Quadrilateral highway system in India and finds positive effects, including higher economic activity and better (non-farm) jobs for women. However, air pollution rose in parallel and gains in household consumption were not equally shared across connected districts. Appraisal simulations for CPEC and the Kolkata-Dhaka corridor suggest that complementary measures are needed to improve local conditions that in turn will create formal jobs and generate tax revenues that could pay for corridor investments.
In light of the international evidence and specific analyses for South Asia, the report advocates for a more comprehensive design of corridor programs that actively manages tradeoffs and closes potential financing gaps in a sustainable manner.
Good Tourism Practices to Advance Sustainable Development in the Americas
Concrete examples of how to advance sustainable development through tourism take centre stage in the first joint publication between the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the Organization of American States (OAS). ‘Tourism and the Sustainable Development Goals: Good Practices in the Americas’ provides 14 case studies from across the region on why tourism ranks high among the economic sectors better positioned to enable the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
Ranging from tourism projects to strengthen the peace process in Colombia to initiatives in the heart of the Peruvian Amazon, addressing climate change in Mexico or providing insight into management and sustainability systems in Honduras or Panama. A total of 14 case studies portray the contribution of tourism to advance the Sustainable Development Goals in the Americas.
‘Tourism and the Sustainable Development Goals: Good Practices in the Americas’ recommends to pay critical attention to tourism management as well as to strengthening partnerships between national and international public and private stakeholders, as well as local communities. The report also addresses the emergence of a more responsible traveler and how destinations in the region should integrate resource efficiency and multi-stakeholder involvement in their policies, actions and initiatives.
“With more than 200 million international tourists who traveled to the Americas in 2017, tourism can and must play a significant role in delivering solutions for sustainable development in the region”, said UNWTO Secretary-General, Zurab Pololikashvili. “I am grateful for the partnership with the Organization of American States and am confident that together we will support tourism’s role in the sustainable development agenda of the region up to and beyond 2030”, he added.
According to the Executive Secretary for Integral Development of the OAS, Kim Osborne, this joint effort “provides greater awareness on how tourism can help address poverty alleviation, protect biodiversity and cultural heritage, and support community development in the Americas”.
Authorities at all levels in the Americas have identified tourism as a priority sector to promote economic development and diversification and countries across the region are adopting new legislation and policies in this direction. Against this backdrop, ‘Tourism and the Sustainable Development Goals: Good Practices in the Americas’ provides insight into how a common approach – including policy makers, private sector, tourists and the development community – can catalyze sustainable development through tourism.
The report was presented during the 2018 Inter-American Congress of Ministers and High-level Authorities of Tourism, under the theme ‘Connecting the Americas through sustainable tourism’.
Azerbaijan’s geo-economic expansion prospects: Conventional or emerging markets?
In the background of global geo-economic shifting, nation states confront significant challenges in terms of appropriate positioning. In case of Azerbaijan, these challenges are also related to regional geopolitical imbalances as well as structural problems existing in the national economy.
Throughout its independence, Azerbaijan has pursued the way to formulate its foreign economic relations through maximizing its economic benefits in the context of achieving relevance to its national interests. Indeed, country’s geographical location and economic strength gained thanks to oil boom gave birth to the possibility of formulation of Azerbaijan as a regional geo-economic pivot.
Azerbaijan iscurrently conducting multi-vectorial geo-economic development strategy in order to maximize its geographic advantages as well as maintaining better positioning in the framework of massive realignments observing in global economic architecture.Looking through of the policy frameworks which encapsulate country’s medium and long-term economic vision, it becomes obvious that Azerbaijan will continue to adjust these strategies to the “new game rules” of geo-economic shifting.
However, it should also be mentioned that in some cases, Azerbaijan’s geographic location takes part as an impediment rather than advantage.Referring to conventional understanding of the concept of “space”, Azerbaijan has only limited number of spaces in which geo-economic sustainability can be realized. However, shifting from geopoliticsrelying on the dominance over geographic basins to the geo-economics which relying on controlling financial and trade flows creates an excellent opportunity for Azerbaijan to tackle with this problem. In this regard, it should be emphasized that successful realization of trade-logistics and energy transport projects in recent years have created a sound ground to continue geo-economic expansion in the new stage of economic development. But the question currently standing in front of this expansion strategy is that which markets or “geo-economic spaces” should be main target?
Assessment of trans-regional projects initiated or supported by Azerbaijan during last two decades indicate that these initiatives are mainly directed to mitigate EU’s dependence on several routes or building an appropriate infrastructure to bolster these countries’ trade relations with Central Asian countries. This factor was strategically and economically beneficial for Azerbaijan in terms of getting better access to European markets and eliminating infrastructural backwardness inherited from Soviets. However, as aforementioned, current realignments in geo-economic landscape make it necessity to add new directions and quality features to the geo-economic expansion strategy of the country.
In this regard, Strategic Road Map for the perspectives of the national economy which approved by President Ilham Aliyev in late 2016 can be accepted as a reliable guide to find answer to the question put above. It is not secret that in recent years, we are observing geo-economic shifting from Euro-Atlantic region to the Asia-Pasific. This shifting is gradual and time-consuming process and cannot be constrained only by Chinese economic expansion or South Korean success story.
According to the World Bank, over the next three years the $75 trillion global economy will expand by more than $6.5 trillion in size. It is also estimated that China and India will be among Top 3 contributors to real GDP growth predicted for 2018-2020 while Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan will be also among major contributors.Furthermore, emerging and developing Asia seems will be achieved to quadruple its share in global GDP based on PPP during 1980-2020.
In the light of these figures, it can be put forward that Azerbaijan can take more benefits through getting better access to these emerging Asian markets. Furthermore, taking into consideration country’s medium and long-term economic vision in which acceleration of joining to global value chains has been mentioned as one of the strategic targets,integration to these markets promise more economic gains. The scale of these gains will not be constrained only in the framework of monetary or financial units. Particularly, significant progress achieved in realization of North-South and East-West transport corridors in recent years, additionally much brighter prospective transport projects which are expected to be realizedin the near future will lead to increase Azerbaijan’s geo-economic importance. This achievement can be accepted as a result of continuous efforts made by Azerbaijan during last two decades. As mentioned by President Aliyev, situated between Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan will continue to use wisely its geographical location to become one of the leading transportation hubs in Eurasia. Pursuant to his opinions, it is highly predictable that Azerbaijan geo-economic expansion will continue in accordance with regional and global economic landscape movements.
Getting efficient positioning in regional integration movements which dominantly shaping under priority of national interests is one of the key directions of Azerbaijan’s geo-economic expansion strategy.In this regard, preserving independence in integration processes is one of the significant imperatives in Azerbaijan’s foreign economic and trade relations.It is worth to mention that Azerbaijan, unlike to some of other region countries, still preserves independence in making choices regarding with integration movements. Therefore, Azerbaijan’s current stance lets us put forward the idea that consistence of joining to such type of integration movements with the country’s strategic foreign and domestic economic targets is more deterministic imperative rather than nominal participation.This hypothesisalso involves some insights regarding with the issue that in which direction geo-economic expansion ought to be continued in the following years.
On the macroeconomic and foreign trade perspective, it is worth to emphasize that Azerbaijan has achieved significant growth rates during 2004-2014. After some adverse effects of oil price crunch after 2014 Azerbaijan economy is currently in the process of adjusting new equilibrium points.This process is conducting not only through improving macroeconomic indicators, but also through making changes in geographic orientation of the country’s foreign trade relations. According to the official figures, the share of Asian markets is averagely 38% in exports and 39% in imports. However, analyzing of commodity structure of this trade turnover exhibits that in exports low value-added commodities dominate while in imports particularly medium and high value added ones take the lion share. This structure of trade relations with Asian countries brings forth some challenges in terms of diversifying commodity structure of exports as well as increasing turnover with these emerging economies. Therefore, in the context of geo-economic expansion, it would be more reasonable for Azerbaijan to pay much attention to join global value chains appearing in these markets. Additionally, thanks to already finished and prospective trade-logistics and transportation projects, Azerbaijan’s opportunities to benefit from new trade reality which involves geographical fragmentation of production is increasing. This new reality offers to accelerate diversification of economy with limited resources avoiding from conventional barriers existing in small economies such as Azerbaijan.
Finally, Azerbaijan seems very determined to become a geo-economic pivot in its region relying on its comprehensive and continuous development strategies and rising international economic competitiveness which achieved during recent years. This deterministic stance will continue through shifting beyond a new quality stage of geo-economic expansion in the era of formulation multipolar global economic order. This shifting additionally requires revision of geographic expansion postulates of the country’s geo-economic development strategies. The characteristics of this revisionwill be determined by systemic realignments in the global economy.
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