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Iran: The hard fate of JCPOA

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US president Donald Trump published a new strategy on Iran. There were two major declarations. The first one related to inacceptability for the USA of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions (JCPOA) signed in 2015 on Iranian nuclear program. The second one related to sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that was included in the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List.

First of all, we should remember that President Trump did not take the USA out of the JCPOA and did not denounce it. Once again, he simply did not confirm that Iran performed the “nuclear treaty” (which he did before), gave orders to learn if it is possible to amend its terms and conditions, as well as made a declaration that the American party may terminate it at any time. Though in this process he did not give details of the methods, mechanisms, ways and the instruments of this hypothetical denunciation. This is not a simple two party American-Iranian document, this is an international pact, approved and confirmed by the UN Security Council.

As a counterbalance to their boss, a group of National Security advisors to Trump declared that Iran conforms to the conditions agreed. This is a fully substantiated and logical declaration, has the main International watchdog of the IRI nuclear program, IAEA has confirmed 8 times that “Iran is strictly in line with its obligations under the JCPOA”. That is why Trump did not and does not have a formal way to terminate the agreement.
Another issue here is to change the requirements for Iran in this agreement. But this is also less probable because Iran categorically objects to it. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif declared that Tehran will never negotiate on the nuclear deal with the world powers already agreed.

In his turn, the head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi confirmed that the terms of conditions of JCPOA cannot be reviewed, and the best way is to follow them.

Russia, China and the European Union also noted that the JCPOA does not need any additions or amendments. Russian Deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov gave a smart remark on that: “There is an American proverb that our colleagues open use in such situations, ‘If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’.”

JCPOA has been working fine for two and a half years. Former Under Secretary of State and chief negotiator from Washington, together with the other G6 intermediaries and Iran Wendy Sherman warned: “The reluctance of the president to accept the truth about the agreement with Iran, that it works and that it is clearly in the US National Security interests, will have serious consequences.”

We will add that not only for the USA, which will face political, image and moral challenges. All the participants of the nuclear talks with IRI (except USA) support JCPOA and speak for keeping it, criticizing Trump’s position.

Besides that, the fact that Iran went out from under the sanctions, it also became and interesting Target for the international business. Almost all EU countries, as well as Japan, South Korea, China, Southeast Asia are interested in developing economic relations with Iran and are actively against a new anti-Iranian campaign and new anti-Iranian sanctions.
JCPOA is an important historical document that, probably for the first time since 1945 when the nuclear era started, put the nuclear Ambitions of a particular country under control and made it fit the framework of international laws and IAEA requirements. This is a good example of global diplomacy effectiveness that created a precedent of true trust of other parties in the name of nuclear weapons nonproliferation. JCPOA can become a model for diplomatic settlement of regional and world crises.

It should be noted, that Great Britain, Germany, France underline the aspect of nuclear non-proliferation in this treaty and say that it really meets its target. They spoke in support of JCPOA and called to the USA not to take steps that could undermine it and thus undermine the non-proliferation regime for nuclear weapons.

Mass media say, that London, Paris and Berlin called Washington to think it over. French president Emmanuel macron disclosed his intentions to make a visit to Iran, while German foreign office head Sigmar Gabriel declared that White House policy pushes Europe back from the USA and, moreover, causes it to get closer to China and Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Iran in early November where he will have talks with the IRI President Hassan Rouhani. Among the problems discussed there will inevitably be the question of is the JCPOA future. Moscow will once again express its support to this International document.

Destruction of JCPOA by the United States will undermine trust to America and, most negative, to all talks on nuclear problems of the “threshold” countries aspiring to get nuclear weapons, first of all, North Korea, and to further lead two nuclear non-proliferation regime falling.

This or that way, this will cause the USA to become an outlaw country that will not have any moral rights to call anyone to negotiations on new nuclear agreements.

Trump must have understood the consequences of his resolution to leave JCPOA and did not declare it irrevocably. In conditions of a very hard internal policy situation in the USA, he shifted the responsibility for it to the Congress. The Congressmen have 60 days to think over and take a bill on sanctions due to the refusal of the IRI President regarding the conditions of the nuclear agreement and another 10 days for the voting process. That means that the fate of JCPOA will be solved December 24th. There are little partyzans of IRI in the USA, but there are many opponents to Trump. Thus, we don’t know how the Congress will behave in those December days. This is a hard game, just as in American football.

Another version is that the reason for the the anti Iranian campaign initiation is the fact that President Trump is trying to provoke Iran to unilaterally leave JCPOA. For Trump that would be a perfect variant.

In its turn, Iran is also playing its own game, because there are many opponents to this agreement. Now the country sees a hard game between relatively liberal surrounding of President Rouhani and his political and economic opponents.

One of them is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as politicians in the surrounding of Rouhani opponents at the recent election, Ebrahim Raisi and radical clerics. A special attention should be paid to IRGC, that is an organization that has not only military, but also economic power. By the way, in the period of hard sanctions, the structures of IRGC managed to find ways to pass over the limits gaining considerable funds from their activity. It’s natural that IRGC was not interested in lifting sanctions.

There is a political game on, and it is very active. Certainly, JCPOA, the IRI nuclear program which is the object of Iranian national pride, is in the center of this fight.

Antique Iranian activity of trump is playing for opponents of Hassan Rouhani who built his presidential career on conclusion of this nuclear agreement and lifting sanctions imposed on Iran. He managed to reach positive economic results, in his new year address to the nation on March this year he said: “The Iranian people, having taken the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions, reached the results we wished, the sanctions chains are broken… The sanctions in the sphere of banking, currency and financial operations, petrol and petrochemistry, insurance and transports – all these “nuclear sanctions” are lifted which created perfect conditions for economic activity of our people.” “I am certain, said president Rouhani, is that our joint effort inside the country and constructive interaction with the world will help our economy to grow and blossom.”

This is so. In 2013 the GDP fell 6% per annum, while in 2016 the Iranian economy grew about 4-6%. The fight on inflation was also successful causing it to fall from the unofficial 40% to around 10%.

JCPOA took Iran from the isolation. In two years Tehran was visited by dozens of state leaders and governments, while the amount of trade and economic delegations can be hardly counted at all. There was information on dozens of transactions for billions of dollars.
This August, when presenting a new cabinet to Majlis, President Rouhani declared that one of the external political priorities of the new government will be keeping the agreement on the nuclear program and its protection from the USA acts. “The most important task of the foreign minister is, first of all, to maintain JCPOA and not too loud USA and our opponents succeed,” Mr. Rouhani said. “Protecting JCPOA means to fight Iranian enemies,” the Iranian President said.

JCPOA destruction or yet even an attempt to do it by the White House will significantly strengthen president Rouhani’s opponents’ position which can eventually lead to serious consequences, up to forceful transition of the executive power from the incumbent president to his opponents. In this scenario, it’s possible that Iran will terminate JCPOA and IAEA will be removed from control over the nuclear activity of Iran which will once again make the IRI nuclear program active and reanimate its military component.
Such a scenario will cause a strong reaction of the USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia which is fraught with yet another possible military conflict in the Middle East.
Another danger is Trump’s resolution to include IRGC In the list of terrorist organization, putting it in line with Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

This caused immediate Tehran reaction. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that Iran would retaliate very hard without giving any more further detail.
IRGC Chief commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari, in his turn, made a transparent hint that the Corps would include the US Army into the list of terrorist organizations and make it it’s target like ISIS all over the world, and first of all in the Middle East, to counteract Trump’s allegations in his address. General Jafari persistently recommended USA to leave the Middle East and stay at a distance of at least 2000 km from Iran (the operating range of Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles). There is information that Iranian missiles were retargeted to the objects related to the American Army located in the Middle East.

Thus, the “cold war” between USA and Iran up for almost 40 years is moving step by step into a critical phase thanks to efforts of President Trump’s Administration. Now it is not only Iran and a threat, but there’s a risk that it will spread onto the Middle East currently on fire, as well as the non-proliferation regime for nuclear weapons.

First published in our partner International Affairs

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Middle East

NATO and the puzzle of a nuclear deal with Iran

Mohammad Ghaderi

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A meeting of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Heads of State and Government was held on Wednesday 11 and Thursday 12 July 2018 in Brussels, Belgium. NATO leaders met in Brussels amidst a terse environment that threatens to further weaken the post-war order.

This year’s meeting came at a tense time for transatlantic relations since the US president is set to sit down one-on-one with Russian president Vladimir Putin on May 16 in Helsinki. One of the topics the US president sought to discuss with his Western counterparts in Brussels was “the nuclear deal with Iran” and its fate.  Regarding this controversial issue Time wrote:

“After ripping up the Iran nuclear deal in May, the Trump Administration is fanning out across the globe to rally support for a return to economy-crippling sanctions against Tehran.”

It continues: “The effort comes ahead of President Donald Trump’s trip next week to Europe, where he is expected to pressure leaders into joining the far-reaching campaign to handcuff major aspects of Iran’s economy, including driving oil exports to zero. If European allies don’t join, Trump has threatened secondary sanctions on any company that does business with Tehran.”

According to the Time and other Western sources, Donald Trump intends to press NATO leaders over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and “The president hopes his bare-knuckled approach will coerce European leaders to unite behind him, even as they publicly oppose a return to sanctions and scamper to salvage the existing nuclear deal without American participation. This is while the White House keeps to press its European allies for increasing the military and defense budget (to 2% of their GDP).

While the transatlantic tensions are raising day by day due to the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Europe, what meaning can negotiations on the JCPOA imply? Does Trump intend to make a deal with his European partners in this regard? Do NATO’s European members welcome the integration of the JCPOA amid their conflicts with the US?

The British Prime Minister Theresa May has recently asked other European countries to remain silent against Trump’s actions in imposing tariffs on imported goods from Europe, and not to seek retaliatory measures. She also asked European authorities to negotiate with the US president on the JCPOA. Indeed, what’s going on among NATO members?

The truth is that in near future, the JCPOA will turn to the Europe’s leverage for making deals with the United States in security grounds, an issue witch its signs we could well see in the Brussels summit. It shouldn’t be forgotten that in its calculations, the EU is still regarding itself as dependent to the United States. Those like Theresa May, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel are adjusting their policies in the international system based on their security dependence on the United States. It might be possible that the European officials agree on “restraining Trump”, but that’s all, and we can’t expect them to go further as to fulfil their obligations in this regard. The EU would never confront the US seriously, since “resisting against the White House” is in no way defined in Europe’s strategies and tactics.

In the course of the G7 recent meeting in Canada, Donald Trump discussed various subjects with Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, including Iran nuclear deal, tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Europe, and the increase of NATO defense budget. But these talks resulted in the intensified disagreements among EU member states and Trump. The tensions were so high that the meeting ended with no final statement. Now the US president is pursuing the same approach I dealing with NATO states.

Trump and the European countries both regard the tensions raised in the international system as a “single package”. In this equation, Trump asks the European authorities to cease their support for the JCPOA and the continuation of the nuclear deal in exchange for a decrease in the US economic and security pressures. It should be noted that one of the main reasons for the European leaders’ refusal of offering a conclusive, detailed and effective package to Iran regarding the JCPOA was their secret negotiations with the American officials. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Mike Pompeo the American Secretary of State had been constantly in contact with the European troika’s foreign ministers, and announced them the exact positions and policies of the US government.

In the course of the NATO summit, we witnessed the continuation of the Europe’s paradoxical game playing towards the JCPOA. It shouldn’t be forgotten that the EU’s main strategy towards Iran and the JCPOA, is to make us remain as part of the nuclear deal as long as possible, and without benefiting from its advantages, so that the influence of the US sanctions would be multiplied. The offering of the EU’s unacceptable and useless package of proposals is also to be analyzed in the same vein; a weak package which is resulted from the special relations between the US and Europe.

First published in our partner MNA

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Middle East

God’s Grace: Reichstag Fire and July 15 Military Coup

Zakir Gul, Ph.D.

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“By the grace of God!” Some rulers use the cry to explain why certain events happen and why they play out as they do. They will argue that God, in allowing the events to happen, has bestowed his grace upon the ruler. Two rulers and two events—the Reichstag fire in Germany on February 27, 1933,and the military coup attempt in Turkey on July 15, 2016—illustrate the devastating consequences this twisted logic can have on the lives of ordinary people.When Adolph Hitler arrived at the scene, he told German Chancellor Franz von Pape, “This is a God-given signal” to crush Communists (and later opponents). Immediately after the failed military coup, Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that the event was “a gift from God” and justification for Erdogan to start cleansing the military (and later purging opponents).

The similarities between the two events are striking in terms of beneficiaries, consequences and suspicions about the rulers’ true intentions going forward. Soon after the fire, Hitler started to consolidate his powers in the name of protecting the state’s security and democracy. To do so, Hitlersuspended civil liberties and shut the door on the rights and freedom of the country’s citizens. The fire in the heart of the countrywas used to justify the notion that the country was in a great danger. With decrees, Hitler purged his opponents, even though there was only one person considered to be responsiblefor the fire. Erdogan followed a similar path when he has declared a state of emergency after the coup attempt and consolidated his powers with radical changes in the country’s political and legal systems. With decrees, Erdogan purged hundreds of thousands of people under the guise of protecting the country’s security and democracy—even though soldiers who allegedly were involved in the coup attempt that night already had been into custody.In the political arena, Hitler increased the number of votes he received in the election that took place a week after the fire. Similarly, public support for Erdogan increased after the coup attempt. History does, indeed, repeat itself. These are two of many examples that could have been cited.

It may not be possible to know for sure who staged and orchestrated the Reichstag fire orthe military coup attempt; however, it is clear that the rulers’ purported motives are suspicious and their explanations filled with inconsistencies, given the many controversies arising from both events.The Reichstag firehas been discussed by scholars and historians who concluded that Hitler and his team—either directly or indirectly—helped to instigate the fire. Indeed, the arsonist responsible for the fire was pardoned years later. The military coup in Turkey wasa terrorizing and wicked deed against humanity and democracy, and the persons responsible must be identified and punished based on the rule of law and democratic values. It is, however, a Herculean task. Too many loopholes and controversies about the coup attempt need to be clarified. Erdogan should provide evidence-based, honest and objective explanations to remove the suspicions surrounding the coup attempt. Many answers are needed. For example,why did Erdogan refuse to answer questions from the major opposition party (the Republican People’s Party, or CHP) about the coup? Why has the investigation case report and the report of the parliament’s investigation committee deemed inappropriate and unsatisfactory even by some members of the committee? More important, why has an international committee not been allowed to investigate the case? Questions such as these highlight the many mysteries and suspicions that still surround the event two years after it occurred.

An independent international investigation committee should be established by the United Nations to examine the coup attempt and eliminate possible suspicions about Erdogan and his governing team. The committee also should determine whether thousands of people were responsible for organizing the coup attempt, as the government alleges, and clarify the following: whether some U.S. citizens, such as Andrew Brunson, who is still in jail, were among the primary plotters of the coup; whether some other U.S. citizens for whom bounties were offered were behind the coup attempt; and whether the United States was behind the coup attempt, as Turkish politicians and government officials claim—even though the United States has denied any involvement in the event.

Another independent international investigation committee should be established by the U.N.(or some other internationally accepted institution)to investigate the aftermath of the coup. Violations of internationally accepted human rights (as reported by credible human rights organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch) that have been committed by government security and intelligence officials since the coup attempt should be investigated. The committee also should also determine whether persons victimized in any way (such as imprisonment, job loss, inhumane treatment, and deprival of constitutional rights and freedoms)were based on evidence or resulted from the arbitrary application punishment. A final task of the committee should be to investigate allegations of abductions, extrajudicial executions and torture by government security and intelligence agencies. As John Dalhuisen,Amnesty International’s Europe director, has said, “It is absolutely imperative that the Turkish authorities halt these abhorrent practices and allow international monitors to visit all these detainees in the places they are being held.”

An independent and objective domestic committee that consists of members from every political party in the country—regardless of the parties’ percentage of the vote among constituents—should be established to investigate the same issues the two international committees need to review. Care must be taken to ensure that the members of this domestic committee—unlike those serving on the committee that was formed after the coup attempt—can maintain their objectivity and are aware of their responsibilities. The committee should be transparent and its actions and discussions observed and by international representatives of the U.N., the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the European Union, and individual countries and/or journalists.

Finally, the European Court of Human Rights, an internationally accepted high court of which Turkey is a member,should determine for itself—rather than rely solely on the response from government officials—whether the country’s domestic legal and judicial system can be accessed openly and freely by all citizens and the attorneys representing them in legal matters.

It is only through these independent international and domestic investigations that the truth about the failed coup attempt can come to light.

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Ghassan Kanafani, the Palestinian Pioneer Author of Resistance Literature

Sondoss Al Asaad

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The eighth of July marks the 46th martyrdom anniversary of Ghassan Kanafani, who was assassinated by the Zionist Intelligence;  Mossad, along with his 17-year-old niece Lamees. Days before their martyrdom, Lamees had asked Kanafani to diminish his activitism and to concentrate on his writings. He answered her,” I write well because I believe in a cause, in principles. The day I leave these principles, my stories will become purposeless. If I were to leave behind my principles, you yourself would not respect me.”

Kanafani was born in 1936, in Palestine, to a father who was a national activist in the resistance against the British colonialism. After the 1948 Zionist occupation, his family sought refuge to Syria, when he was 12-year-old. In the refuge camps, Kanafani wrote most of his novels which highlights the sufferings that the Palestinians endure in the diaspora. He won multiple awards for his works both during his life and posthumously. For instance, in “Umm Saad,” Kanafani’s protagonist is a symbol of the Palestinian women in the refugee camps.

Kanafani was inspired by Jamal Abd al-Nasser’s ideas of national independence and defiance of imperialism. Due to the decline of Nasserism after the 1961 failure to consolidate Egypt and Syria under a unified United Arab Republic, the ascendancy of imperialism and Zionism and the rise of communism; Kanafani, along with his comrade George Habash, resolved to adopt Marxism. They belived that the political crisis in the Arab world could only be solved by turning the anti-imperialist struggle into a social revolution.

In Lebanon, Kanafani adopted the Communist philosophy and become a leading member of the Marxist-Leninist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). He says, “The Palestinian cause is not a cause for Palestinians only, but a cause for every revolutionary, wherever he is, as a cause of the exploited and oppressed masses in our era.”

Besides, he was a prolific creative and brilliant novelist and the first to anticipate the “resistance literature” genre. His literary products and fictitious works have inspired a whole generation of resisting youth, both during and after his lifetime as they are greatly rooted in the Palestinian culture and cause. Kanafani dedicated his works to reflect on the Palestinians’ lives and the challenges they face under the Zionist occupation. He states, “My political position springs from my being a novelist. In so far as I am concerned, politics and the novel are an indivisible case and I can categorically state that I became politically committed because I am a novelist, not the opposite.”

The assassination of Ghassan Kanafani was the result of his commitment to the Palestinian cause and the resistance methodology. Today, his legacy echo within every free revolutionary who devoted his life to confront the imperialist conspiracies. Indeed, Kanafani was murdered merely because he had constituted an intellectual threat to the Zionist entity. He refused the negotiations with the enemy, pointing that it would be “a conversation between the sword and the neck […] I have never seen talks between a colonialist case and a national liberation movement.”

The chief thematic field of Kanafani’s writing was inseparably connected to the anti-imperialism struggle. He stressed that the Palestinian cause could not be resolved in isolation of the Arab ‘s social and political crisis. Further, he insisted on developing the resistance movement from being a nationalist Palestinian liberation movement into being a pan-Arab revolutionary socialist movement of which the liberation of Palestine would be a vital component.

Definitely, Kanafani played an influential role in raising consciousness on the issue of imperialism. He maintains, “Imperialism has laid its body over the world, the head in Eastern Asia, the heart in the Middle East, its arteries reaching Africa and Latin America. Wherever you strike it, you damage it, and you serve the world revolution. “Shortly after Kanafani’s obituary in Lebanon, “The Daily Star” stated, “He was a commando who never fired a gun, whose weapon was a ball-point pen, and his arena the newspaper pages.”

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