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South Asia

Pakistan, Afghanistan and China Trilateral Dialogue and implications for Pakistan’s Foreign Policy

Aamna Khan

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The very first tweet of 2018 by the USA’s President Donald Trump was related to Pakistan in which he said that ‘The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!’ This tweet is definitely an alarming signal towards Pakistan that the New Year will bring so many challenges to Pakistan especially in terms of its foreign policy. This tweet can be analyzed on levels which are manifold such as some analyst consider it just a publicity stunt by Trump because his presidency is becoming weaker day by day and its policies are either rejected or amended and he is just trying to win support by these kinds of statements. As interestingly the very next day, he warned Palestinians as well in the same way by saying that, ‘ It’s not only Pakistan that we pay billions of dollars to for nothing but also many other countries, and others As an example, we pay the Palestinians hundreds of millions of dollars a year and get no appreciation or respect. They don’t even want to negotiate a long overdue peace treaty with Israel, We have taken Jerusalem, the toughest part of the negotiation, of the table, but Israel, for that, would have had to pay more. But with the Palestinians no longer willing to talk peace, why should we make any of these massive future payments to them’. These threatening tweets show Mr. President’s wish to get global attraction and frustration over his declining popularity domestically as well as globally.

On the other hand, Trump’s tweet regarding Pakistan can be considered as a clear threat to Pakistan about the consequences it can have due to its growing cooperation with China especially in terms of Afghan Peace process as now it has become very obvious that USA has lost the war in Afghanistan. Whatever the conclusion one takes from this statement of Trump, one thing for sure is apparent that it is a tough time for Pakistan and 2018 is going to be a challenging year for Pakistan. Now Pakistan has to take many critical decisions regarding its foreign policy. Pakistan’s foreign policy has seen many visible changes in 2017 as in the case of Qatar issue and the paradigm shift towards Russia and Iran. This time Pakistan has to adopt some comprehensive policy towards Afghanistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan besides having common religion, ideology and culture are involved in the continuous blame game from many years.

Recently, China being a broker of peace dialogue between Afghanistan and Pakistan played very efficient role. The latest trilateral dialogue which held on December 26, 2017 in Beijing is a milestone in this regard. Stable Afghanistan is in the interest of both the states and is inevitable for the $47billion CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) project. Without stable Afghanistan, this project will remain just a dream. Moreover, in order to counter USA as well as India in Afghanistan, China and Pakistan have to cooperate as USA and India both are unhappy with this project and trying their best to create obstacles in the fulfillment of this project.

Unstable Afghanistan is becoming a source of growing tensions in the vulnerable south western province of Pakistan that is Balochistan. Pakistan is continuously condemning India internationally for its involvement in Balochistan and it has even given dossiers in United Nations in 2015 as well. The very famous KAO plan of India and the recent episode of the arrest of Indian Spy Kulbushan Jadhav in Balochistan who has accepted his involvement in Balochistan separatist activities in front of media are the arguments made by Pakistan in this regard. Without any doubt, whatever involvement India has in Balochistan, certainly, it is via Afghanistan firstly because of the porous borders Pak-Afghan borders and secondly, Indian strong footing in Afghan soil. Peace and stability in Balochistan is inevitable not only for Pakistan but for China as well due to CPEC because the central venture of CPEC is the development and working of Gwader port which is situated in Balochistan. In order to address the issue of Balochistan, Pakistan has to adopt a comprehensive policy to address the grievances of Baloch and try to fulfill their demand. Furthermore, Pakistan should avail this golden opportunity provided by China and use soft power to address the grievances of Afghans in order to achieve stability in Balochistan. The trust deficit and bitter relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan has provided India an opportunity to gain strong hold in Afghanistan and especially gained sympathies from Afghani people. Afghani people are more inclined towards India now which is not at all in favour of Pakistan. Due to geopolitical location as well as security situation, Pakistan cannot afford to have any serious contentions at its western borders.

It’s not difficult for Pakistan to regain the sympathies and the prior status in Afghanistan due to common culture, religion and the brotherly relations Afghans and the people of Khyber Pakhtoon Khua (bordering province of Pakistan) shares. On the other hand, China also needs to have some strong footing in Afghanistan in order to create balance of power in the region. It’s been observed through the analysis of  the history of Afghanistan that hard power never works in Afghanistan and no one have ever been able to defeat vigorous Afghans. Hence, China has to utilise its soft power and maintain friendly relations with Afghanistan and for this purpose, it has to take help from Pakistan. Pakistan and China can collectively make an effort in this regard to establish good image of China and Pakistan in Afghanistan through various means such as introduction of Chinese radio or TV channels, scholarships for Afghan students and cultural exchange programs for Afghan students in China as well as in Pakistan in order to rebuild friendly and brotherly relations. Pakistan unlike India cannot invest in Afghanistan due to its poor economic conditions but still it can regain its status of a brother with the help and assistance of China.

As it’s said that be discreet with your kindness, it is not a good time to waste all the sacrifices which Pakistan has made since Afghan war of 1979. Pakistan hosted millions of Afghan refugees in Afghan war of 1979 as well as after the outbreak of War against Terrorism in 2001. But from last few years some of the harsh statements and policies of Pakistan has played significant role in generating grievances among Afghan refugees which in turn has proved beneficial for India. Now India has replaced Pakistan and Afghans are more inclined towards India. Moreover India is investing in Afghanistan and playing a significant role in its development. To deal with this, Pakistan needs to evaluate its policy regarding Afghan refugees issue and should formulate a friendly policy. Similarly, Afghanistan also needs to show some flexibility in its policy towards Pakistan and understand that Pakistan just like Afghanistan is also a poor victim of terrorism and is suffering in every aspect. This is a time for both the states to work together to defeat the menace of terrorism which is devastating the peace of both the states and is the biggest obstacle in development and prosperity. With the assistance from China, Pakistan and Afghanistan can work together to minimize the trust deficit and get desired outcomes. It will be a win-win situation not just for the three partners but also for the whole region.

Aamna Khan is a Pakistani National currently residing in China for pursuing a Ph.D. degree at SIPA, Jilin University. She is an independent researcher, social activists and cultural ambassador who aims to build a bridge between different communities in order to achieve global peace and cooperation. Her research interests include Terrorism, Foreign Policy, and Peace and Conflict Studies.

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South Asia

Will Pakistan go to IMF finally?

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) was created just after World War II (WWII) in 1945. It was the time of re-organization of the world order after massive destruction of WWII. UN and its organizations were establishing and whole world was passing through reforms. The IMF is an organization of 189 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

The beneficiary of WWII was US, and emerged as leader of World. IMF and World Bank like other UN and International organizations were depending on US funding to some extend and US has been utilizing in expand its economic, political and military influence around the world, frequently. US was involved in appointing head of such organizations directly or indirectly.  I leave it to my readers to judge that if IMF and other organizations have achieved its objectives or not?

Pakistan have been knocking doors of IMF since 1958, and it has been 21 agreement with IMF. Generally, IMF provides loans at very low interest rates, and provides programmes of better governance and monitoring too. But for last 6 decades, Pakistan has suffered a lot, in term of good governance. Especially last 2 decades, corruption, nepotism, poor planning, bribery, weakening of institution, de-moralization of society, etc were witnessed. We may not blame IMF for all such evils, but must complain that IMF failed to deliver, what was expected. Of course, it is our country, we are responsible for all evils, and wrong doings happened to us. We have to act smartly and should have made right decision and on right times.

In fact, beneficiary of corruption, is west, and in some of the cases, west has inspired or protected the corrupt politicians and bureaucrats in the developing nation and Pakistan is no exception to it. At least, IMF failed to monitor the utilization of funds provided.

IMF also dictates its terms and condition or programmes like: devaluation of local currencies, which causes inflation and hike in prices, cut or draw-back of subsidies on basic utilities like fuel, gas, electricity etc, which causes cost of life rather higher for local people, cut on development expenditures like education, health, infrastructure, and social development etc, which pushes the country backward.

Pakistan was no exception to it in the history of our relations with IMF. Last couple of decades, we could not develop our infrastructure, as a result we are back ward and could not take off economically, could not built Dams and suffering from Power shortage and water crisis, Education, health and social sector was ignored and pushed us rather backward.

In past, whenever we approached IMF, US administration was favoring us, but this time, it was witnessed that US may create hurdles or resistance in the form of additional conditions etc.

Based on experience of 6 decades, Government of Pakistan (GoP) have to make decision, weather to go to IMF or not? It is very serious issue and very sensitive decision. GoP is very serious and in close consultations with various experts from within the government and out side the government. There is a group in Pakistan, lobbying for IMF, as it is cheapest and more structured. Pro-IMF lobbies are more close to PM Imran Khan. While, there are experts who are against IMF and feels in past, if IMF was not helpful for Pakistan, then why to go again for the same tested organization. It is worth mentioning that, Pakistan is a diversified nation, and freedom of expression is ensured by constitution of Pakistan, so many controversial opinions are expected – we enjoy the highest degree of freedom. .

In past, politicians were rather easy to coerce and IMF was successful in their missions. But, today, Pakistan is in safe hands and current leadership is honest, loyal and sincere with Pakistan. The PM Imran Khan is a strong man and will take decision based on principles in the best interest of nation.  Sources close to him, feels that till date he is not convince yet, but will take a firm decision soon. His decision will be based on expert advice, national interest and purely merit-based.

However, all other option may be explored and taped, like friendly nations have already extended a hand of financial assistance. Like Saudi Arabia, Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Malaysia and China. Which has lessen the need of going to IMF to a great extent. It will provide an edge to Pakistan, while negotiating with IMF.

Whatever will be his decision, people of Pakistan trust him and will stand behind him. His decision will be considered the decision of 220 million of Pakistan. Pakistan has a history of “No Default” in last 7 decades to any one of our international obligation or agreement. Pakistan is a civilized, disciplined and matured & resilient nation. We have passed many harsh tests, in last 4 decades and learnt many lessons.

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South Asia

Pakistan Securing Its Maritime Interest and CPEC

Qura tul ain Hafeez

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The IOR is a major sea route that unites the Middle East, Africa, and East Asia with Europe and America. The excessive economic growth of littoral states of Indian Ocean obliges them to protect their energy needs and interests in order to endure their purchasing power. This has great security implications for the sea line of communication of the littoral states of IOR like Pakistan.

Continuing to Pakistan’s interests in IOR the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has great potential to transmute Pakistan into a central trade platform, which would undeniably gushed the enemies, particularly India, to halt it. The development of Gwadar sea-ports as part of BRI in general  and that of CPEC in particular has amplified India’s concerns’ and aimed for more sophisticated and advanced naval build-up. Furthermore, India perceives the Gawadar port (that is considered as crown jewel of CPEC) as a hazard to its contesting interests in Central Asia countries.  The reason being, India can access Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asian Republics (CARs) only through Cahabahar by passing Pakistan and Gawadar  a deep water sea port that is easily accessible to these land locked states then Chahabahr. A couple of days back on 24th December 2018 India has formally over taken the operational control of Iran’s Cahabahar port – only (0 Km away from Gawadar port. India’s aspirations to become blue water navy in the IOR raise serious concerns among Pakistan’s maritime security. CPEC would lead toward increased maritime politics and contestations not only between Pakistan and India but would also involve China and US.

In such turbulent circumstances Pakistan is required to prepare its sea based defense to secure its sea lines.   Islamabad needs to carefully evaluate its options and develop its strategic response accordingly, involving but not limited to continuous development of its naval capability and an even closer maritime cooperation with China. In view of the prevailing power dynamics in Indian Ocean Pakistan Navyin order to secure its interest in IOR inked a contract with China’s State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC)in June 2018 for two, Type 054AP frigates. The agreement is an extension of a previously signed agreement in 2017. Recently on December 19, 2018 steel-cutting ceremony for the second Type 054A frigate for the Pakistan Navy was held at the Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard in Shanghai. The type 054 AP warship frigates will be equipped with modern detection-state of art sensor and Guided Missiles weapon systems; capable of anti-ship, anti-submarine and air-defense operations. According to the report of China Daily report added that the “Type 054A is the best frigate in service with the PLAN”.

It is pertinent to mention here that maritime security is linked with the Economic security and vice versa. Gawader port is one of the most important projects of the CPEC where Pakistan and China are very hopeful that in future this shipping port will generate the revenue for Pakistan’s economy.  There is a big chunk of fishery industry through which Pakistan can earn a lot. It will stimulate business and trade activities at state level and across the region.  The 054 AP frigates ““Will be one of the largest and most technologically advanced platforms of the Pakistani Navy and strengthen the country’s capability to respond to future challenges, maintain peace and stability and the balance of power in the Indian Ocean region” a report on 2nd January 2019 released by  Chinese state owned media said.

In some, to deal with all these existing defies Pakistan Navy (PN) has espoused to a multi divided line of action for safeguarding the port in more effective manners. It conducts security patrolling h and coastal exercises from time to time. Furthermore, previously in 2013 it has inaugurated its Joint Maritime Information Coordination Center (JMICC) in Karachi to provide with an effective mechanism of Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA).  After receiving these 054 AP frigates warship Pakistan will definitely in far more better position to counter India’s vested interests in Indian Ocean region. It will also help secure the Gwadar port which is the chief component of Pakistan maritime trade activities. China has always been an al weather strategic partner of Pakistan. Although India always tries to propagate that CPEC is military agreement instead of an economic one however, securing the economic interests with an advanced mechanism does not mean at all that it’s planning something militarily. Pakistan has always adopted a defensive policy and it is the right of every sovereign state to secure its interests even if they are economic as there is no morality in international politics, still CPEC is an economic project which welcomes every state of the region for economic cooperation  even if it is India as well.

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2018 was the deadliest year in the history of Kashmir

Irfan Khan

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Kashmir is natural paradise and gorgeous valley located between Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, China and with a small strip of 27 miles with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. But it is still a disputed region since partition of United India into India and Pakistan (also Bangladesh in 1971) in 1947.

The history of the freedom of Kashmir dates to 1931 when the people, both Hindus and Muslims, initiated a freedom movement against the then Maharaja (ruler) to have their own indigenous rule. The resentment of the people led to the ‘Quit Kashmir’ campaign against the Maharaja in 1946. Faced with the insurgency of his people, the Maharaja fled the capital, Srinagar, on October 25, 1947 and arranged that India send its army to help him crush the rebellion. India, coveting the territory, set the condition that Maharaja must sign an ‘Instrument of Accession’ to India. At the same time, India had to attach another condition that accession was made subject to ‘reference to the people.’ On India’s showing, therefore, the accession has a provisional character.

Then India brought the dispute to the United Nations where the Security Council discussed the question exhaustively from January to April 1948. Then both India and Pakistan and approved by the international community that the dispute over the status of Jammu and Kashmir can be settled only in accordance with the will of the people which can be ascertained through the democratic method of a free and impartial Kashmiri citizens vote.

The people of Kashmir, despite of being injured since long could not lost their hope. They believe in United Nation(UN), assuming it will advocate choice of freedom for them. During the July-August 2018, people from entire Srinagar and other towns, were protesting government of India’s violation of Article 35-A of Indian’s constitution. 35-A, assure special rights to the state of Jammu and Kashmir.

Whenever, there is peaceful demonstration from them, then they must suffer basic human rights violation, fear and state of starvation as response of Indian government. In 2018, 111 civilians are killed which is double to the previous year recorded 40 killing by the Indian forces. India has some 500,000 troops deployed in Kashmir. Popular unrest has been rising since 2016 when a charismatic young Kashmiri leader, Burhan Wani, was shot dead by Indian forces.

Pakistan always has been bolstering the way of peaceful talk with India over the issue. Last year, in October, Prime Minister Imran Khan, repeated Pakistan’s stance that the solution to the region’s dispute laid in dialogue. He said,”It is time India realised that it must move to resolve the Kashmir dispute through dialogue in accordance with the UN SC resolutions and the wishes of the Kashmiri people”.

Kashmiri leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, in response to PM Khan said we welcomed “Pakistan’s concern” but called for Pakistan to “do much more” to “put an end to the appalling grind of repression and human rights abuse that Kashmiris are suffering at the hands of Indian state.

Happily, UN has issued human right report on Kashmir in June 2018. The report of 49 pages strongly emphasis on human right violation and abuses and delivering justice for all Kashmiris. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein remarked “The political dimensions of the dispute between India and Pakistan have long been centre-stage, but this is not a conflict frozen in time. It is a conflict that has robbed millions of their basic human rights and continues to this day to inflict untold suffering. Therefore, any resolution of the political situation in Kashmir must entail a commitment to end the cycles of violence and ensure accountability for past and current violations and abuses by all parties and provide redress for victims”.

2018 was the deadliest year in the history of Kashmir. Hope so, Pakistan and India sandwiched by UN would resolve the issue based on Kashmir people’s choice of freedom so that human violation could be ceased.

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