Recent hurricanes have left unprecedented devastation across the Caribbean, and it is a traumatic time for all those who live in the region. Whole communities and towns have been decimated, and the global community needs to act quickly and give generously to relieve suffering and help to rebuild.
Alongside the ongoing emergency response, Caribbean leaders today announced the launch of a new public-private coalition to create the world’s first “climate-smart zone.” The Caribbean Climate-Smart Coalition aims to find a way to break through the systemic obstacles that stop finance flowing to climate-smart investments. With the right domestic and international reforms, the world can step up – and help unleash the means to catalyze an ambitious US$8 billion investment plan to bring greater energy and infrastructure resilience to 3.2 million Caribbean households. This would help Caribbean islands to eliminate their costly dependency on fossil fuels so that they can meet close to 100% of their energy needs from renewable sources, and to embed resilience into communities and livelihoods to realize the bold ambitions of all Caribbean people.
The announcement came at the One Planet Summit hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris to review progress made on the Paris Agreement adopted by global governments two years ago today.
Caribbean leaders have brought together a Coalition of global organizations such as the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank, and the Caribbean Development Bank, as well as businesses and supporters from the Caribbean and the international community. The Coalition aims to reinvigorate the islands that have been impacted by recent hurricanes Irma and Maria, and help build more resilient infrastructure and communities across the region as the likelihood of future extreme weather events increases.
Coalition members will help to establish partnerships that can make investment deals happen. They will also bring their collective abilities together to break down the technological and financial barriers, which represent the last obstacles to Caribbean people grasping the transformational opportunities that are in reach.
Specifically, the Coalition’s work will focus on catalyzing four initial critical priorities:
- Scale renewable energy as rapidly as possible to help free Caribbean countries from the high cost of imported fossil fuels and the high vulnerability of centralized distribution systems.
- Build low-carbon and resilient infrastructure including nature-based approaches, to better withstand future extreme weather events.
- Create innovative financing models such as a debt-for-resilience swap initiative in exchange for demonstrated progress on policy reforms and investments to strengthen resilience and promote climate-smart growth pathways. Build platforms to help facilitate the large public and private investments required.
- Strengthen the capacity of Caribbean countries and key regional institutions to plan for long-term resilience and climate-smart growth strategies.
Prime Minister Keith Mitchell of Grenada, Chair of CARICOM, said: “Caribbean leaders have come together as a powerful collective to build a better future for the people of the Caribbean. We welcome the financial commitments from our partners – around US$1.3 billion for recovery efforts and US$2.8 billion toward the vision shared by all members of the Coalition and others. This is a great first step. Now we need to turn this possibility into a set of realities that benefit all our people. We all need to work together to change the rules of the game to accelerate climate-smart financial flows for the Caribbean and other small island developing states. Together we can build thriving economies fuelled by clean energy, nature-based resilient design and innovation. The time for action is now.”
Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit of Dominica, said: “Despite the immense human suffering and economic damage caused by the recent hurricanes, the people of the Caribbean do not want to be just passive victims of climate change. Rather, they want to be active participants in designing and implementing solutions, and for their Caribbean region to serve as a beacon of hope for island nations all over the world.”
Supported by funding and resources from the Inter-American Development Bank Group, the World Bank Group and the Caribbean Development Bank, a Caribbean Climate-Smart Accelerator with an estimated budget of $6-10 million for a three-year period is being established to catalyze billions of further public and private resources.
Luis Alberto Moreno, Inter-American Development Bank Group President, said: “The IDB Group reaffirms its continued and historical commitment to the Caribbean and will work with leaders of the region to improve lives by creating climate-smart and vibrant economies, where people are safe, productive, and happy. We hope that through this Climate Smart Coalition, in addition to offering new affordable financing, we will use our wide physical presence on the ground to work closely with the people of the region to design their Caribbean of the future, today.”
Jim Yong Kim, World Bank Group President, said: “The Caribbean is in the ‘eye of the storm’ and we need coordinated international support to rebuild and better plan for the future. At the World Bank Group, we welcome the Caribbean Climate-Smart Coalition and plan to support it so countries get back on their feet and are better able to deal with the growing frequency and intensity of storms and hurricanes.”
Warren Smith, President of the Caribbean Development Bank, said: “The destruction our Region experienced during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season emphasises that we cannot afford to take a business-as-usual approach in tackling climate change. CDB, therefore, welcomes the establishment of the Caribbean Climate-Smart Coalition. The Bank shares the vision of the Coalition and we look forward to supporting and investing in solutions to accelerate progress towards achieving this goal.”
Achim Steiner, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, said: “The next hurricane season is only six months away so achieving climate-smart and resilient development for the Caribbean is critical. Affected individuals are the focus of the $5 billion recovery process, but this effort will only be successful if it involves the private sector, civil society and governments at all levels working together for a more resilient Caribbean. Last month, close to $2.5 billion was pledged at a conference co-organized by CARICOM and UNDP for recovery and resilience in the Caribbean, and it is our objective to facilitate joint efforts with the work of the Caribbean Climate-Smart Coalition.”
Allen Chastanet, Prime Minister of St. Lucia, said: “Ultimately, we will only win the battle on climate change when investments in climate action and broader resilience become the economically sensible decision to make every time. It’s not just about protecting against negative impacts – climate action needs to be about enhancing competitiveness, creating jobs, improving our economies. Otherwise, our people cannot make the sacrifices needed. I’m pleased by the level of support from our Coalition partners and others. But I’m excited about the possibility for the Caribbean to incubate new powerful ideas, and accelerate their implementation.”
Sir Richard Branson, Founder Virgin Group, said: “Much of the Caribbean has been going through immense human suffering and economic damage caused by the recent hurricanes. But I never had any doubts about the spirit and the resilience of Caribbean people. They have come together and decided to turn the Caribbean into a spark of hope for the world. The work of the Caribbean Climate-Smart Coalition will help to break down the remaining barriers between vision and reality, and will see the region not only recover from the catastrophic impacts of Irma and Maria. It will set a shining example of resilient reconstruction and clean energy transition.“
THE RISE Fund said: “The RISE Fund is committed to investing in businesses that create positive and measurable social or environmental impact alongside competitive financial returns. We’re excited about the Coalition’s work to help rebuild the power infrastructure in the Caribbean to provide more cost effective, resilient, and cleaner power. We look forward to working with the Coalition to identify investment opportunities that will drive positive commercial outcomes while helping to rebuild and strengthen local communities across the Caribbean.”
Mary Robinson, Chair of the Mary Robinson Foundation – Climate Justice, said: “Climate justice is all of our responsibility. We must stand alongside all the people of the Small Island Nations who will be most impacted by climate change. The recent hurricanes in the Caribbean have been devastating to watch, with people still homeless, without electricity and without livelihoods. We need to provide support in the form of immediate relief, and we also need to start working with them to build a resilient future where the people of the Caribbean can thrive. I’m thrilled to see the Caribbean Climate-Smart Coalition being announced in Paris. It is wonderful to see Caribbean Leaders coming together with partners from all over the world to ensure that the Caribbean can serve as a beacon of hope for other Island Nations.”
Potential of Pakistan’s Power Sector
A few years ago, several hours of load-shedding in Pakistan was very common, even in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan was without electricity for 6 hours on daily basis. Thanks to CPEC, thanks to China, who has completed several power projects and the people of Pakistan are relieved a lot. Now there is still load-shedding but only for couple of hours. The country was able to produce 16000 MW of electricity in the 7 decades almost. And most of the mega projects were completed in 1960s or 1970. Last 4 decades the nation was unable to add any significant amount of power into national grid.
China helped Pakistan to over-come its power shortage and just within few years, under CPEC, the country was able to add 11000 MW of power into National Grid. There are several power projects under execution or in the pipe line. It is believed, that next couple of years and we may get rid of load-shedding absolutely. However, it is also expected that due to planned industrialization, the demand may also increase tremendously. We still need to focus on the power generation, transmission and distribution. As the transmission is rather old and line losses are rather high. There is a need to up-grade our transmission system on urgent basis. The major issue is still the distribution, which resulted in theft of electricity. Line losses and theft made electricity rather expensive as it has to be recovered from consumers.
However, Pakistan possess potential of 65000 MW hydropower generation. Some of the sits are natural dams and suits for electricity production easily. Building big dams or mega dams, require a lot of investment as well as technical expertise too. But, small dams are easily constructed by our private sector. The requirement of investment is within the reach of our private sector and the technology required is also available within the country.
Dams also store water which will be additional value for Pakistan. As Pakistan is a country which faces water related disaster twice a year. During the rainy season, heavy rains causes flood every year and damages our crops, cattle’s, villages and loss of human live. Floods cause spread of seasonal diseases and epidemics also cause a big loss to nation. Just after a few month, Pakistan faces drought season too. During the drought season, water shortage cause big damage to human life and animals’ and husbandry. Crops suffered heavy losses due to shortage of water.
If appropriate dams are built, it may generate power to meet the national requirements as well it stores water during rainy season to avoid floods and utilize water during the drought season. We can overcome some of our serious problems by indigenous technology and domestic resources, without going to International donors.
Usually building big dams requires a long time 10-15 years, but our political system is based on 5 years tenure term. Most of political parties do not initiate any project, which cannot be completed within their tenure and they get benefits of completed projects during the election. As a practice, most of political parties never takes any initiatives, which may goes to credit of next government. But recently, Pakistani voters have become matured and they understands the worth of long term projects and may vote for those who are visionary leaders and sincere with Pakistan, and take long tern initiatives for the best interest of the nation. Our political parties may also up-date their strategies accordingly.
Not only hydropower, even Pakistan is rich with coal. Only Thar coal can meet the nation’s energy requirement for next 500 years. Coal technologies are on its path of rapid development. There exists technologies to convert coal into natural gas, or diesel. Coal can also help the whole downstream hydrocarbon industry too. Clean coal technologies are already applied in the field. Pakistan can be major beneficiary of its coal reserves.
God has blessed Pakistan with unlimited solar energy. There are areas in Pakistan, where the Sun shine duration is above 300 days in a year, and upto 18 hours of Sun shine on daily basis. This unique potential may be exploited for green and clean energy. Wind is also one of our strength.
What do we need? An enabling policy from Government of Pakistan. The policy may be focused to attract local entrepreneurs based on incentives. Sustainable and long term incentives, and protection may be the priority of Government. Our private sector possess the potential of rapid growth. It may include International market too. But the indigenous know-how and domestic investment may be given priority.
If PTI government can deliver something like this, their next elections are guaranteed to win. As per my perception, Imran Khan, the prime minister of Pakistan has vision, has will and sincere with the nation, based on our understanding, we expect he will take serious notice of things and include power sector in its priority too.
Back to the future
In the classic Back to the Future movies, the future was powered by a decentralized clean-energy system. Houses and flying cars ran on fuel cells fuelled by residential garbage. The technology itself isn’t particularly far-fetched – not the flying car bit, but the process to power a fuel cell from hydrogen produced by methane from garbage is relatively straightforward for today’s biogas plants.
But time travel aside, what the 1980s vision of the future missed are the actual technologies that emerged started to reshape our energy system in the last three decades since the movies came out – namely wind, solar and battery electric cars. While the present of the energy system is strikingly similar to the 1980s with a practically unchanged domination of fossil fuels, the expectations of what will follow shifted. This is a very different future and one that creates a delicate challenge for the electricity sector.
Transport is a huge and growing energy consuming sector. It represents 28% of total final energy consumption, and is responsible for almost 60% of global oil demand. Electricity is used in transport, though today mostly in electric railways compared to which electric cars are still minor.
If garbage, or, in a more scalable fashion, biomass or hydrogen produced from natural gas, were to provide a clean-energy alternative for transport, the transport sector could move away from oil without integrating more deeply into the electricity sector. There would be no need to deploy new infrastructure to support electric car charging, no concerns about charging times and impacts on power flows, it would be business as usual for electricity.
In addition, garbage is easy to store, and fuel cells can regulate their production in a flexible fashion. In technical terms this creates decentralised dispatchable clean-energy production – meaning it can collect power into a central system, much like the current system. Such a technology would enable the continuation of a hundred-year paradigm of regarding electricity demand fluctuations as a given and managing the system from the supply side.
But, this market is tiny. Only a few thousand residential fuel cells are sold in Japan each year, nothing compared to the millions of solar panels sold around the world. To be sure, solar production varies with the weather and it is often not well correlated with demand. A solar rooftop with a battery in the garage seems like a perfect distributed dispatchable solution and generates increasing attention. However, more than 99% of the solar panels are deployed without batteries – their variability is handled at the system level rather than at a project level. In fact the optimal location is of batteries is often not next to the solar panel but in specific network nodes where their operation can relieve bottlenecks.
Solar and its twin brother, wind experienced a radical technological progress, cost declines and are rolled out at an impressive scale. While the energy system will continue to rely on a diversified set of fuels and technologies, the rapid growth of wind and solar will have to play a key role in tacking disruptive climate change. Nevertheless, both of them generate electricity which accounts for only 20% of energy consumption today. The full potential of wind and solar will be realised only if a much higher proportion of energy is consumed by electrifying other sectors, including transport. Such electrification not only reduces direct fossil fuel use in vehicles or buildings, but if done smartly it unlocks need new flexibility sources that wind and solar will need for really large-scale growth.
The transport technology that generates the most excitement is electric cars. Although personal cars represent only a minority of the oil use of the transport sector, electric cars capture public imagination in a fashion that is disproportional to their energy footprint. As a result, they tend to dominate discussions on the future of energy even though ships, aircraft or heavy trucks are most likely to continue to use oil for a considerable time. Linking electric cars to wind and solar creates major opportunities but also challenges. Cars and wind and solar production will need to interact through an interconnected system. An EV can’t be self-sufficient when coupled with a residential rooftop solar panel since solar production is low in the winter precisely when the car has a higher electricity need. In temperate climates, nearly all solar households remain connected to the grid with a changed utilisation pattern and wind is evolving towards a quintessential utility scale big business where technological progress makes wind turbines bigger and bigger rather than small and decentralised.
While early adopter electric cars used in suburban commuting can take advantage of the existing network and charge in the garage of the owner for mass adoption and long distance travel a new infrastructure development will be needed. High capacity chargers will require network reinforcements as well as a careful coordination of when the cars charge. Due to the energy density of hydrocarbons, it is not possible to copy the gasoline lifestyle to the electricity age. Plugging in and quickly filling the car at sunset will be part of the problem, responding to changes in wind with smart charging will be part of the solution.
A dominant role of electricity is not a new dream. The 19th-century science fiction novels of Jules Verne are full of electric cars, battery powered submarines and even electric helicopters. This electric future was delayed by the century of oil, but it is now arriving. Its features are becoming increasingly clear: A new electricity network that is more robust and more flexible at the same time. A new market design that is able to orient and optimise millions of producers, consumers and prosumers giving value to time and location. A new transport system where parking vehicles are not idle but act as active system assets.
Because of its security implications and importance to modern society, electricity will remain a heavily regulated industry where government policy plays a crucial role in guiding the transformation. This complex interplay of technology, investment, policy and regulation shaping the growing role of electricity will be depicted in the upcoming World Energy Outlook focus. In special effects, it might not be up to Hollywood’s standards, but it will be as exciting and innovative.
Israel’s Gas Ambitions are Valid but Challenges Remain
The discovery of Israel’s natural gas resources promise important benefits of energy security and economic gains. Israel is a leading country because preparations to extract gas are already at advanced stages despite that its gas fields’ development has proved to be a lengthy process.
Delays are attributed to the fact that the fields’ development is capital intensive and entails risks that unsettle investors. A major risk is the lack of energy transportation infrastructure in Israel. Leviathan field partners namely Noble Energy, Avner Oil Exploration, Ratio Oil Exploration and Delek Drilling are likely to develop infrastructure used exclusively by Leviathan, blocking out competitors and endangering prospects for future gas discoveries in Israel. In particular, the likelihood that competitors will have to finance their own transportation infrastructure, raises the costs of developing smaller fields at prohibitive levels. Concurrently, the Israeli Leviathan field’s development, the largest exploration success since December 2010,is capital intensive given that it requires significant investment that will be carried out in two stages: the first stage foresees four development wells with an annual capacity production of 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, and, the second, four additional wells that would increase production capacity by another 9 bcm.
In regional terms, Israel’s efficiency as a gas exporter is significant. This is evidenced by the signing in early 2018 of two agreements valued $15 billion between Leviathan and Tamar fields’ consortium and Egyptian company Dolphinus Holdings for the provision of 64 bcm of gas over a ten-year period. The agreement are expected to produce three benefits. First, Egypt is a viable export market for Israeli gas and will thus generate interest from foreign energy companies to bid for licenses in future Israeli international auction rounds. Second, the Israeli government would benefit financially from royalties on sales and taxes on profits. Third, Leviathan partners will secure funding for the field’s development.
Reservations however subsist when it comes to the transportation of Israeli gas to Egypt via the existing pipeline infrastructure in Sinai as terrorist attacks on the pipeline could halt exports from Israel as it happened in 2012. The prospect of terrorism raises the cost of the Israeli fields’ development because of the increased risk premium. It is in this spirit that the construction of a subsea gas pipeline that connects Israel to Egypt could present a safer option. In any case, transportation of Israeli gas to Egypt is not only a milestone in regional gas cooperation, but also supports authentic Israel-Egypt normalization.
Israeli government interference in the form of heavy regulation and bureaucracy is a self-inflicted wound that prevents foreign energy companies from participating in bidding processes. Despite the approval of a revised framework for gas regulation by the Israeli government, the first Israeli bidding process received limited attention taking into account that only a Greek energy company and a consortium of Indian companies participated. Notably, the main outlines of the revised gas regulatory framework included the mandatory sale by Delek Group Ltd, Avner Oil & Gas LP and Delek Drilling LP of all their rights in the Israeli Tanin and Karish fields that are currently owned by Greek Eneregan Oil & Gas Company; and, a stability clause which foresees that the Israeli government guarantees regulatory stability for ten years.
On a parallel level, overlapping maritime claims between Israel and Lebanon over a 854-square kilometer maritime boundary carry the risk of escalation. The January 2018 signing of Lebanon’s first exploration and production agreement (EPA) with a consortium of companies led by French Total as operator, and Italian Eni and Russian Novatek as partners signals competition that could evolve into confrontation over energy resources. Undoubtedly, in the absence of mutual diplomatic recognition between Lebanon and Israel, no trans-boundary natural resource sharing initiative can be taken. The consortium’s announcement that no operation within 25 km of the disputed area will happen leaves room for a third party mediation to minimize the risk of armed conflict and to work on reciprocal acceptance of the 2012 American proposal so that consensual and authorized economic activity becomes feasible. Noteworthy, the 2012 American proposal involved division of the disputed area granting Lebanon a larger share with the aim to serve as basis of bilateral discussions and be deposited with the UN.
To fulfill its energy potential, Israel should speedy proceed with the supply of gas pumped directly from the Leviathan and Tamar fields to LNG plants in Egypt as this will benefit both Egypt’s natural gas industry and development of Israeli fields. Israel should also invest in security of its energy supply to refute the notion of insecurity that prevents foreign energy companies from investing in the country’s gas fields. Equally important, risks that concern investors like export sustainability should be addressed by guaranteeing a certain amount of financial recovery though the existing compensation mechanism. A transparent and predictable Israeli regulatory environment for foreign investors and access to external sources of project finance and loan guarantees and production commitments in Israel are important for the development of export oriented gas resources.
Unquestionably, decisive steps have to be taken by Israel so that a new horizon is revealed; the horizon of indigenous energy development.
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