Kenya’s Supreme Court had voided the result of the presidential election held in August, but following a voting rerun – over two months and dozens of political violence-related deaths later – the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) finally declared Uhuru Kenyatta as president-elect.
Since then, however, allegations of fraud have left the country in political crisis, with the Kenyan Supreme Court now beginning to hear cases against Kenyatta.
These developments shine a light on the fragility of Kenya’s democratic project. Kenyatta claimed “victory” after a prolonged and extremely hostile electoral period. He won the first round of votes by a 10-point margin, but anomalies and allegations of fraud by the opposition party National Super Alliance (NASA) prompted Kenya’s highest court to order a second voting on October 26. He defeated opposition leader Raila Odinga by default. Odinga, convinced that the IECB was extremely partial against him, withdrew his candidacy on October 10 and called on his supporters to boycott the repeat vote. Odinga’s non-participation effectively reduced the voters’ turnout to a mere 38.8 percent, over 90 percent of which voted for Kenyatta. As such, the latter’s presidency is likely to suffer a legitimacy crisis.
Vehemently refusing to recognize the election outcomes, Odinga consistently alleged widespread irregularities in the run up and conduct of both the August 8 and October 26 electoral rounds. His strongly-worded statements sparked protests among his supporters who were violently suppressed by security forces. But the hitherto unsolved murder of IECB digital security officer Christopher Chege Musando just days before the August ballot, reported death threats against officials of the election supervising body, and the IEBC’s admittance to supposedly unsuccessful attempts to hack the commission’s servers, all seem to lend evidence to Odinga’s accusations of massive fraud.
However, the brutal crackdown on dissent may not only further aggravate opposition supporters’ grievances. It is already adding fuel to simmering ethnic tensions as well. Unrest has been brewing between the powerful Kikuyu ethnic group, to which Kenyatta belongs, and the marginalized communities such as the Luo, which Odinga comes from.
Not that the current elections are an exception in Kenya’s recent political history. Previous general elections were no less violent. In 2007 and 2013, electoral contests degenerated into brutal conflicts resulting in thousands of deaths, largely perpetrated by state security forces during excessively forceful crackdowns. Kenya’s history of disorderly elections, then, makes the current atmosphere of incredulity over the electoral process rather unsurprising.
The electoral chaos in Kenya is indicative of the country’s state of democratic consolidation, where civil society is pitted against the courts and self-absorbed ruling elites. This makes Kenya exemplary of Africa’s political trajectory, for the problems that are so openly observed in the country are just as blatantly laid bare in other aspiring democracies on the continent. With elections marred by allegations of corruption, Liberia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), find themselves in similar unpromising political conditions.
Following the victory of Senator George Weah in the October 10 elections over his rival from the ruling party, Joseph Boakai, Liberia’s Supreme Court suspended preparations for a run-off vote between the two. Most recently, the Court moved to halt ongoing hearings into allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities, which the ruling Unity Party had filed before the National Elections Commission – likely even further delaying the run-off.
Weah had defeated Boakai by 38 to 28 percent, respectively, with the result that the losing candidates, including Boakai, have embarked on a transparent campaign to discredit their opponent. Among other things, Weah was accused of being in touch with convicted warlord Charles Taylor, despite Weah firmly rejecting those claims as “propaganda.” Allegations of outgoing President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf interfering on Weah’s behalf have also been rebuffed by election observers from the EU, who found no evidence of irregularities. In fact, the vote’s conduct was assessed as “good or very good.” This week, officials from the US embassy in Liberia backed up this evaluation, lending additional credibility to the first round the elections.
Just like Kenya, Liberia is now in a state of political uncertainly amidst the postponement of the ballot. Its future hangs in the balance as concerns are rising that the Supreme Court is used as a tool to deliberately scuttle the election results. The fact that the four parties that submitted the complaint are discussing a “merger” to create a common front against Weah in an attempt to bolster Boakai’s presidential claim, seems to justify this concern.While this is done under the guise of protecting democracy, it is clear that the motivations are, in fact, to undermine legitimate election outcomes.
A similar tactic has been effectively employed in the DRC, where Congolese President Joseph Kabila has been overstaying his presidential term. Breaking a brokered agreement stipulating elections to be held before the end of the year, Kabila has refused to stand down. The Congolese electoral commission warned that elections could not take place until the end of 2018 at the earliest, in a transparent bid to prevent Kabila’s opponent in any election, Moïse Katumbi, from running.
Except that Kabila’s forceful approach is about to backfire. The ruling further infuriated the already frustrated opposition party and the many Congolese citizens anticipating regime change. With every day that Kabila overstays his welcome, the opposition is growing stronger. Katumbi is widely expected to win the first round of a future presidential poll, and vowed to return to DRC in December to stand in the delayed vote – an announcement likely to add more pressure on Kabila. Alongside other opposition figures, Katumbi is calling on the populace to resist the President’s desire to stay in power by mounting civil disobedience campaigns.
As the examples of Kenya, Liberia and the DRC illustrate, weak institutions and excessively powerful political figures at the helm for unnecessarily long periods of time, are making electoral transfer of power painstakingly complicated and violent. The Courts, meant to protect democracy, are used to undermine it in all three countries. However, Kenya’s failure to set an example to other African states of what a truly peaceful electoral exercise could look like is one of Africa’s biggest democratic disappointments. As things stand now, the Continent’s outlook on democratic governance looks bleak indeed.
West Africa: Extreme poverty rises nearly 3 per cent due to COVID-19
Extreme poverty in West Africa rose by nearly three per cent in 2020, another fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, a UN-backed report launched on Thursday that looks at the socio-impact of the crisis has revealed.
The proportion of people living on less than $1.90 a day jumped from 2.3 per cent last year to 2.9 per cent in 2021, while the debt burden of countries increased amid slow economic recovery, shrinking fiscal space and weak resource mobilization.
More than 25 million across the region are struggling to meet their basic food needs.
The study was published by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in partnership with the West Africa Sub-Regional Office for the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the World Food Programme (WFP).
Sekou Sangare, the ECOWAS Commissioner for Agriculture, Environment and Water resources, said the pandemic has, in particular, annihilated benefits gained in fighting food insecurity and malnutrition.
“Even if we are happy with the governments’ response through the mitigation actions they have taken, we have to worry about the residual effects of the health and economic crisis as they are likely to continue disturbing our food systems for a long time while compromising populations access to food, due to multiple factors,” he said.
The report highlights the effects of measures aimed at preventing coronavirus spread, such as border closures, movement restrictions and disruption of supply chains.
Forced to sell
These measures had an impact on income-generating activities, and on food prices in markets, with small traders, street vendors and casual workers most affected.
The deteriorating economic situation has adversely affected food security and nutrition in West Africa.
More than 25 million people are unable to meet their basic food needs, a nearly 35 per cent increase compared to 2020. People have been forced to sell their assets and livelihoods in order to get enough to eat.
The situation is most severe in those areas affected by conflict, such as the Lake Chad Basin region, the Sahel, and the Liptako-Gourma region, which borders Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
Strengthen social protection
The partners hope the report will encourage public and private response to address the pandemic’s negative impacts on the people of West Africa.
Chris Nikoi, WFP’s Regional Director for West Africa, underscored the need for immediate and concerted action.
“This report clearly shows the urgent need for Governments and partners to deliberately increase investments to strengthen and increase social protection programs, social safety-nets such as school meals, and other livelihoods-enhancing programs with particular emphasis on women and youth,” he said.
The Director of the ECA’s Sub-Regional Office, Ngone Diop, pointed to one of the strengths of the partnership, namely the ability to carry out an online survey which mobilized nearly 8,000 respondents.
Moreover, she said “basing our analyses on primary, first-hand data from households directly impacted by the health crisis makes it possible to offer decision-makers at the regional and national levels with relevant and better-targeted policy options.”
Responding to needs
Since the outbreak of the pandemic nearly three years ago, ECOWAS and its partners have implemented several economic and financial measures to respond to the increasing needs in the region.
ECOWAS Member States, with support from WFP and other technical partners, have also expanded social protection programmes, as well as food distributions, for the most vulnerable communities.
For example, In Mali and Niger, they are supporting some 1.4 million people and helping to strengthen national social protection systems.
“WFP is committed to engage more with ECOWAS in enhancing coordination and facilitating experience sharing among countries, with the aim to ensure social protection systems in the region support food security and nutrition and provide resilience to shocks,” said Mr. Nikoi.
Pragmatic Proposals to Optimize Russia’s Pledged Rehabilitation of Ethiopia
Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia Evgeny Terekhin pledged that his homeland will help rehabilitate his hosts after getting a clearer understanding of the full extent of the damage that the terrorist-designated Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) inflicted on the northern part of the country throughout the course of its approximately half-year-long occupation of the Afar and Amhara Regions. China’s Xinhua recently cited official Ethiopian government statistics about this which claim that the Amhara Region suffered damages upwards of approximately $5.7 billion.
According to their data, the TPLF partially or fully damaged 1,466 health facilities and vandalized water, electricity, and transport infrastructure. 1.9 million children are out of school in that region after more than 4,000 schools were damaged by the group. Over 1.8 million people were displaced from the Afar and Amhara Regions while 8.3 million there are suffering from food insecurity. The scale of this humanitarian crisis is massive and the direct result of the US-led West’s Hybrid War on Ethiopia that was waged to punish the country for its balanced foreign policy between the US and China.
It’s here where Russia can rely on its recent experiences in helping to rehabilitate Syria and the Central African Republic (CAR) in order to optimize its pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopian. Those two countries are much more war-torn than Ethiopia is, the latter of which only saw fighting in its northern regions instead of the entirety of its territory like the prior two did. The most urgent task is to ensure security in the liberated areas, which can be advanced by summer 2021’s military cooperation agreement between Russia and Ethiopia.
This pact could potentially see Russia sharing more details of its earlier mentioned experiences in order to enhance the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s (ENDF) security and stabilization operations in the northern part of the country. Syria and the CAR survived very intense Hybrid Wars that utilized cutting-edge military tactics and strategies against them similar to those that were subsequently directed against Ethiopia by the TPLF. It would help the ENDF to learn more about the challenges connected to ensuring security in areas that have been liberated from such contemporary Hybrid War forces.
The next order of business is to help the many victims of that country’s humanitarian crisis. Russia’s experience with assisting Syria in this respect, which suffered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises in decades, can be of use to Ethiopia. This is especially the case when it comes to aiding its internally displaced people. Their immediate needs must be met and maintained, which might require urgent support from that country’s trusted partners such as Russia. Provisioning such in an effective and timely manner can also improve Russia’s international reputation too, especially among Africans.
Northern Ethiopia’s post-war rehabilitation must be comprehensive and sustainable. The country’s Medemer philosophy — which has been translated as “coming together” – will form the basis of these efforts. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed touched upon this in his 2019 Nobel Peace Prize speech and his book of the same name that was released earlier that year. Its English translation hasn’t yet been published but Medemer was explained at length by high-level Ethiopian officials during an early 2020 US Institute of Peace panel talk and in Ethiopian writer Linda Yohannes’ insightful book review.
An oversimplification of it in the economic context is that Medemer preaches the need for comprehensive, inclusive, and sustainable growth through public-private and other partnerships that bring prosperity to all of its people, which in turn strengthens socio-political relations between them. It seeks to apply positive aspects of foreign models while avoiding the bad ones. The Medemer mentality aspires to balance cooperation with competition, constantly improving itself as needed, in order to synchronize and synergize Ethiopia’s natural economic advantages in people, location, and resources.
In practice, this could see Russian public and private companies partnering with Ethiopia’s primarily public ones to rehabilitate the northern regions’ damaged infrastructure. Since sustainable growth is one of Medemer’s key concepts, the country’s Russian partners could also train more laborers, social workers, teachers, and doctors throughout the course of these projects while offering scholarships to some internally displaced youth for example. In that way, Russia and Ethiopia could truly embody the Medemer spirit by literally bringing their people closer together as a result of these noble efforts.
All the while, Russia’s international media flagships of RT and Sputnik should be active on the ground documenting the entire experience. The immense influence that Moscow has in shaping global perceptions can be put to positive use in exposing the foreign-backed TPLF’s countless crimes against humanity in northern Ethiopia. This can powerfully counteract the US-led West’s information warfare campaign against its government, which misportrays the TPLF as innocent victims of the “genocidal” ENDF, exactly as similar Russian media efforts have done in debunking Western lies against Syria.
The world wouldn’t only benefit by learning more about the US-led West’s lies against Ethiopia, but also in seeing how effectively Russia is working to reverse the damage that their TPLF proxies inflicted in the northern part of that country. Russia is also a victim of their information warfare campaign, which misportrays the Kremlin as a dangerous and irresponsible international actor. The truth, however, is that Russia is a peaceful and responsible international actor that has a documented track record of cleaning up the West’s Hybrid War messes in Syria, the CAR, and prospectively soon even Ethiopia too.
Upon taking the lead in rehabilitating northern Ethiopia, Russia should diversify the stakeholders in that country’s prosperity in coordination with its hosts. It’s in Ethiopia’s interests as well to receive assistance from as many responsible and trusted partners as possible. Russia can help by requesting that relevant aid and multilateral rehabilitation efforts be placed on the agenda of the proposed heads of state meeting between the Russian, Indian, and Chinese (RIC) leaders that presidential aide Yury Ushakov said was discussed for early 2022 during President Putin’s latest video call with President Xi in December.
The RIC countries stood with in solidarity with Ethiopia at the United Nations in the face of the US-led West’s subversive attempts to weaponize international law against it. They’re strong economies in their own right, not to mention through their cooperation via BRICS and the SCO, the latter organization of which also has anti-terrorist and other security dimensions. These two multipolar platforms could potentially be used to extend economic, financial, humanitarian, and security cooperation to their Ethiopian partner to complement bilateral and trilateral efforts in this respect.
Russia’s increasingly strategic ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could also lead to Moscow working more closely with Abu Dhabi on related rehabilitation matters with their shared partners in Addis Ababa. Observers shouldn’t forget that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ) played a crucial role in brokering peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018. He even awarded their leaders his country’s highest civil honor when they both visited the UAE that summer. Furthermore, Al Jazeera alleges that the UAE has maintained a humanitarian (and possibly even military) air bridge to Ethiopia.
Regardless of whether or not the military aspect of this reported bridge is true or not, there’s no denying that the UAE has emerged as a major stakeholder in Ethiopia’s success. It deposited $1 billion in Ethiopia’s central bank in summer 2018 as part of its $3 billion aid and investment pledge at the time. The UAE also plans to build an Eritrean-Ethiopian oil pipeline in order to help the latter export its newly tapped reserves in the southeast. Additionally, DP World signed a memorandum with Ethiopia in May 2021 to build a $1 billion trade and logistics corridor to separatist Somaliland’s Berbera port.
Considering the closeness of Emirati-Ethiopian relations, it would therefore be fitting for RIC to incorporate the UAE as an equal partner into any potential multilateral plan that those countries might come up with during their proposed heads of state summit sometime in early 2022. It enjoys excellent relations with all three of them so it’s a perfect fit for complementing their shared efforts. Plus, the UAE has the available capital needed to invest in high-quality, long-term, but sometimes very expensive infrastructure projects, which can ensure northern Ethiopia’s sustainable rehabilitation.
It’s pivotal for Russia to prioritize its pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopia ahead of the second triennial Russia-Africa Summit that’s expected to take place in October or November after fall 2019’s first-ever summit saw Russia return to Africa following a nearly three-decade-long hiatus. Coincidentally, Ethiopia requested last April to hold the next event in Addis Ababa. That would be a sensible choice since its capital city hosts the African Union headquarters, has sufficient infrastructure, and can serve most of the continent through its Ethiopian Airlines, which regularly wins awards as Africa’s best airline.
The interest that Ethiopian Ambassador to Russia Alemayehu Tegunu recently expressed in courting more Russian investment ahead of the next summit goes perfectly well with Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia Terekhin’s vow to heighten cooperation between those countries’ ruling parties. This in turn raises the chances that the present piece’s proposals could hopefully serve as the blueprint for beginning relevant discussions as soon as possible on Russia’s pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopia with a view towards achieving tangible successes ahead of the next Russia-Africa Summit.
That timing is so important since Russia mustn’t miss the opportunity to showcase its bespoke “Democratic Security” model in Ethiopia. This emerging concept refers to the comprehensive thwarting of Hybrid War threats through economic, informational, military, and other tactics and strategies such as the action plan that was proposed in the present piece. “Democratic Security” approaches vary by country as evidenced from the differing ones that Russia’s practicing in Syria and the CAR, but the concept could attract many more African partners if it’s successful in Ethiopia by next fall’s summit.
Russia must therefore do everything in its power to bring this best-case scenario about. Rehabilitating Ethiopia won’t just improve millions of lives, expose the war crimes committed by the US-led West’s TPLF proxies, and enable Russia to showcase its “Democratic Security” model to other African countries, but ensure that the continent’s historical fountainhead of anti-imperialism and pan-Africanism survives its existential struggle. Upon that happening, Ethiopia can then serve to inspire a revival of these ideas all across Africa through its complementary Medemer concept and thus strengthen multipolarity.
From our partner RIAC
Decade of Sahel conflict leaves 2.5 million people displaced
The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) called on Friday for concerted international action to end armed conflict in Africa’s central Sahel region, which has forced more than 2.5 million people to flee their homes in the last decade.
Speaking to journalists in Geneva, the agency’s spokesperson, Boris Cheshirkov, informed that internal displacement has increased tenfold since 2013, going from 217,000 to a staggering 2.1 million by late last year.
The number of refugees in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger now stands at 410,000, and the majority comes from Mali, where major civil conflict erupted in 2012, leading to a failed coup and an on-going extremist insurgency.
Increase in one year
Just last year, a surge in violent attacks across the region displaced nearly 500,000 people (figures for December still pending).
According to estimates from UN partners, armed groups carried out more than 800 deadly attacks in 2021.
This violence uprooted some 450,000 people within their countries and forced a further 36,000 to flee into a neighbouring country.
In Burkina Faso alone, the total number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) rose to more than 1.5 million by the end of the year. Six in ten of the Sahel’s displaced are now from this country.
In Niger, the number of IDPs in the regions of Tillabéri and Tahoua has increased by 53 per cent in the last 12 months. In Mali, more than 400,000 people are displaced internally, representing a 30 per cent increase from the previous year.
Climate, humanitarian crisis
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation is rapidly deteriorating with crises on multiple fronts.
Insecurity is the main driver, made worse by extreme poverty, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The effects of the climate crisis are also felt more strongly in the region, with temperatures rising 1.5 times faster than the global average.
Women and children are often the worst affected and disproportionately exposed to extreme vulnerability and the threat of gender-based violence.
According to the UNHCR spokesperson, “host communities have continued to show resilience and solidarity in welcoming displaced families, despite their own scant resources.”
He also said that Government authorities have demonstrated “unwavering commitment” to assisting the displaced, but they are now “buckling under increasing pressure.”
UNHCR and humanitarian partners face mounting challenges to deliver assistance, and continue to be the target of road attacks, ambushes, and carjacking.
In this context, the agency is calling on the international community to take “bold action and spare no effort” in supporting these countries.
UNHCR is also leading the joint efforts of UN agencies and NGOs to provide emergency shelter, manage displacement sites and deliver vital protection services, including combating gender-based violence and improving access to civil documentation.
In 2021, more than a third of the agency’s Central Sahel funding needs were unmet.
This year, to mount an effective response in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, the agency needs $307 million.
What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West Revealed
Moscow’s demands of the United States and NATO are in fact the strategic goals of Russian policy in Europe. If...
A Post-Crisis Kazakhstan: Economic and Social Transformation
Preconditions for protests The deepening gap between what can be seen as economic successes and the low quality of life...
Is War Inevitable?
Over the past days and weeks, media outlets have been proliferating all kinds of apocalyptic predictions and scenarios on the...
Potash War: Double edged sword for Lithuania and Belarus
As per the recent proclamation made by the Lithuanian government, the Belarusian potash will get banned across the country from...
King Mohammed VI of Morocco launches Pan-African Giant Vaccine Production Plant
Morocco is getting ready to produce its own vaccines. In Benslimane, King Mohammed VI kicked off on Thursday 27th of...
Environment contaminated with highly toxic substances, risking the health of nearby communities
New research published today by Zero Waste Europe (ZWE) about incinerators in three countries – Spain, Czechia, and Lithuania –...
Shaking Things Up: A Feminist Pakistani Foreign Policy
Almost eight years ago, under Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom in 2014, Sweden created its first of a kind feminist foreign...
Southeast Asia4 days ago
Spreading Indonesia’s Nation Branding Through “Kopi Kenangan”
East Asia4 days ago
The role of China in fighting of fascism and racism
Middle East3 days ago
Ukraine crisis could produce an unexpected winner: Iran
East Asia4 days ago
The American politicization of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and the “post-truth era” theory
Economy3 days ago
2022: Rise of Economic Power of Small Medium Businesses across the World
Eastern Europe3 days ago
Ukraine Lies About 2022 Russian Attack to Hide Dying Economy
Defense3 days ago
Preventing Nuclear War in the Middle East: Science, System and “Vision”
Energy2 days ago
Libya’s Energy Puzzle: Every Challenge is an Opportunity