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Trump-Russia Collusion: The Story So Far

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The 2016 US presidential election took an interesting, and what seems to be a protracted, turn in July last year when the DNC server was hacked and nearly 20,000 leaked emails were published by Wikileaks. The emails indicated infighting, unsavory feelings, quid-pro-quo deals, rigged town-hall events, and flip-flopping on policy positions.

The DNC blamed the Russians, despite their being very little evidence to support the claim. On the other hand, the Russian government denied any interference and a very furtive, self-styled hacker called Guccifer 2.0, who claimed to be Romanian, took responsibility for the email dump. Guccifer 2.0 hung around for some time, before vanishing off the radar, leaking more sensitive information and exchanging correspondence with media outlets.

A few days after the email dump, US intelligence sources confidently established Russia to be the miscreant. Presidential nominee Donald Trump, initially, dismissed and made light of the Russia connection, but eventually capitulated and came round to accepting the Russia story.

What followed in the subsequent months was a series of dismissals from Trump team, wild mud-slinging, twitter outbursts, publication of defamatory material, and a long list of legislative and investigative procedures. A detailed timeline can be reviewed here.

Over the past few months, much of the progress on this story was bland and enjoyed an average news cycle life expectancy.

That seems to have changed in the past week and some rather unexpected turns seem to have occurred.

  1. A conservative website ‘Washington Free Beacon’ first commissioned Fusion GPS, the political research firm, between fall of 2015 and spring of 2016, to do homework on multiple Republican candidates, including Trump, and Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton.
  1. Past this point, Fusion GPS was hired for opposition-research by Mark Elias, whose firm Perkins Coie worked with DNC and Hillary Clinton. $9 million were apportioned towards this undertaking. This move led to the hiring of Christopher Steele, a British spy, and the publication of the unverified and unsubstantiated set of memos, famously known as the ‘golden showers’ dossier.

(The dossier contained not only unverified sordid stories, but also allegations of cozy relations between Trump and Russia in an effort to boost his chances of winning. The latter became the fodder that the FBI relied upon to open a full-scale investigation into the Trump-Russia collusion hypothesis.)

  1. Hillary Clinton has mostly stayed mum over these new revelations.
  1. Breitbart News broke a story about the supposed ties between CNN and Fusion GPS.
  2. Bob Mueller’s impartiality and credibility in the Trump-Russia investigation has been called into question on account of a conflict of interest owing to his previous work as head of the bureau in the Obama era.
  1. Former president Barrack Obama’s official campaign platform gave close to $800,000 to the Perkins Coie, which funneled the money to Fusion GPS to compile the infamous dossier.
  1. In the light of these revelations, Trump happily quadrupled down on stomping Mrs. Clinton and the Democrats as he thumbed away tweet after tweet late Sunday. He invoked all of Hillary’s past sins and possibly laid the groundwork for an excuse were the tax reforms fail to clear the House and the Senate in time.
  1. Monday morning saw former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and his business associate, Rick Gates, indicted by Mueller’s grand jury on charges of money laundering, tax evasion, and foreign lobbying that occurred a long time ago.
  1. At the time of drafting this article, this showed up on my Twitter feed.

djttwwet

In summary, despite Trump team’s unsavory and clearly objectionable exchanges with people connected with the Russian government, including Putin, no substantial evidence incriminating Trump or his campaign of collusion has yet surfaced.

That doesn’t go to say that there is no chance of meddling and undermining of the American electoral process by Russia. There are sufficient indicators to service this claim.

So far, we understand that the opposition dispensed generous amounts of money and effort to dig up falsifiable information against Donald Trump to undermine his integrity and chances of winning the election.

A sitting president was also involved in the effort to defame a presidential candidate through underhanded measures.

The political Left and mainstream media, despite their best efforts, weren’t able to shake people’s confidence in Trump and his platform. As Rush Limbaugh has said on several occasions, and I paraphrase, Trump alone is responsible for building his reputation and public trust, and only Trump can cut the rug from under his feet.

Mrs. Clinton, with her sharp business skills, went on to author and promote her third memoir ‘What Happened,’ which is an effort to redistribute the responsibility of her loss from herself to everyone else. Sometimes, leftist principles, like redistribution, come handy.

Nearly a year of frenzied investigation at the hands of the FBI and the legislative body only yielded a couple of money-laundering tax crooks. Not amusing or productive at all!

The investigation, so far, is merely confirming the blowhard-in-chief’s remarks over Twitter and if it keeps going at this rate, he might self-acquit himself over social media.

America needs to overhaul its crumbling web security infrastructure ASAP.

(The story is developing and some summary points may need to be amended, if evidence to the contrary develops.)

An ex-dentist and a business graduate who is greatly influenced by American conservatism and western values. Having born and brought up in a non-western, third world country, he provides an ‘outside-in’ view on western values. As a budding writer and analyst, he is very much stoked about western culture and looks forward to expound and learn more. Mr. Malkar receives correspondence at saurabh.malkar[at]gmail.com. To read his 140-character commentary on Twitter, follow him at @saurabh_malkar

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Wendy Sherman’s China visit takes a terrible for the US turn

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Photo: Miller Center/ flickr

US Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman, had high hopes for the meeting in China. At first, the Chinese side did not agree to hold the meeting at all. The reaction had obvious reasons: Antony Blinken’s fiasco in Alaska left the Chinese disrespected and visibly irritated. This is not why they travelled all the way.

So then the State Department had the idea of sending Wendy Sherman instead. The US government actually needs China more than China needs the US. Sherman was in China to actually prepare the ground for Biden and a meeting between the two presidents, expecting a red carpet roll for Biden as if it’s still the 2000s — the time when it didn’t matter how the US behaved. Things did not go as expected.

Instead of red carpet talk, Sherman heard Dua Lipa’s “I got new rules”. 

That’s right — the Chinese side outlined three bottom lines warning the US to respect its system, development and sovereignty and territorial integrity. In other words, China wants to be left alone.

The bottom lines were not phrased as red lines. This was not a military conflict warning. This was China’s message that if any future dialogue was to take place, China needs to be left alone. China accused the US of creating an “imaginary enemy”. I have written about it before — the US is looking for a new Cold War but it doesn’t know how to start and the problem is that the other side actually holds all the cards

That’s why the US relies on good old militarism with an expansion into the Indo-Pacific, while aligning everyone against China but expecting the red carpet and wanting all else in the financial and economic domains to stay the same. The problem is that the US can no longer sell this because there are no buyers. Europeans also don’t want to play along.

The headlines on the meeting in the US press are less flattering than usual. If the US is serious about China policy it has to be prepared to listen to much more of that in the future. And perhaps to, yes, sit down and be humble.

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Why Jen Psaki is a well-masked Sean Spicer

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When Sarah Huckabee Sanders showed up on the scene as White House Press Secretary, the reaction was that of relief. Finally — someone civil, normal, friendly. Jen Psaki’s entry this year was something similar. People were ready for someone well-spoken, well-mannered, even friendly as a much welcome change from the string of liars, brutes or simply disoriented people that the Trump Administration seemed to be lining up the press and communications team with on a rolling basis. After all, if the face of the White House couldn’t keep it together for at least five minutes in public, what did that say about the overall state of the White House behind the scenes?

But Psaki’s style is not what the American media and public perceive it to be. Her style is almost undetectable to the general American public to the point that it could look friendly and honest to the untrained eye or ear. Diplomatic or international organization circles are perhaps better suited to catch what’s behind the general mannerism. Jen Psaki is a well-masked Sean Spicer, but a Sean Spicer nevertheless. I actually think she will do much better than him in Dancing With The Stars. No, in fact, she will be fabulous at Dancing With The Stars once she gets replaced as White House Press Secretary.

So let’s take a closer look. I think what remains undetected by the general American media is veiled aggression and can easily pass as friendliness. Psaki recently asked a reporter who was inquiring about the Covid statistics at the White House why the reporter needed that information because Psaki simply didn’t have that. Behind the brisk tone was another undertone: the White House can’t be questioned, we are off limits. But it is not and that’s the point. 

Earlier, right at the beginning in January, Psaki initially gave a pass to a member of her team when the Politico stunner reporter story broke out. The reporter was questioning conflict of interest matters, while the White House “stud” was convinced it was because he just didn’t chose her, cursing her and threatening her. Psaki sent him on holidays. Nothing to see here folks, move along.

Psaki has a level of aggression that’s above average, yet she comes across as one of the most measured and reasonable White House Press Secretaries of the decade. And that’s under pressure. But being able to mask that level of deflection is actually not good for the media because the media wants answers. Style shouldn’t (excuse the pun) trump answers. And being able to get away smoothly with it doesn’t actually serve the public well. Like that time she just walked away like it’s not a big deal. It’s the style of “as long as I say thank you or excuse me politely anything goes”. But it doesn’t. And the American public will need answers to some questions very soon. Psaki won’t be able to deliver that and it would be a shame to give her a pass just because of style.

I think it’s time that we start seeing Psaki as a veiled Sean Spicer. And that Dancing with the Stars show — I hope that will still run despite Covid.

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As Refugees Flee Central America, the Mexican Public Sours On Accepting Them

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Authors: Isabel Eliassen, Alianna Casas, Timothy S. Rich*

In recent years, individuals from Central America’s Northern Triangle (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) have been forced out of their home countries by extreme poverty and gang violence. While initial expectations were that the Lopez Obrador administration would be more welcoming to migrants, policies have slowly mirrored those of his predecessor, and do not seem to have deterred refugees. COVID-19 led to a decrease in refugees arriving in Mexico, and many shelters in Mexico closed or have limited capacity due to social distancing restrictions. Now that the COVID-19 situation has changed, arrivals could increase again to the levels seen in late 2018 or 2019, with overcrowded refugee centers lacking in medical care as potential grounds for serious COVID-19 outbreaks.

Mexico increasingly shares a similar view as the US on this migration issue, seeking ways to detain or deport migrants rather than supporting or protecting them. For instance, Mexico’s National Immigration Institute has been conducting raids on freight trains to find and detain migrants. Public opinion likely shapes these policies. In the US, support for allowing migrants into the country appeared to increase slightly from 2018 to 2019, but no significant majority emerges. Meanwhile, Mexican public opinion increasingly exhibits anti-immigrant sentiments, declining considerably since 2018, with a 2019 Washington Post poll showing that 55% supported deporting Central Americans rather than providing temporary residence and a 2019 El Financiero poll finding 63% supportive of closing to border to curb migration.

New Data Shows the Mexican Public Unwelcoming

To gauge Mexican public opinion on refugees, we conducted an original web survey June 24-26 via Qualtrics, using quota sampling. We asked 625 respondents to evaluate the statement “Mexico should accept refugees fleeing from Central America” on a five-point Likert scale from strongly disagree to strongly agree. For visual clarity, we combined disagree and agree categories in the figure below.

Overall, a plurality (43.84%) opposed accepting refugees, with less than a third (30.08%) supportive. Broken down by party affiliation, we see similar results, with the largest opposition from the main conservative party PAN (52.90%) and lowest in the ruling party MORENA (41.58%). Broken down by gender, we find women slightly more supportive compared to men (32.60% vs. 27.04%), consistent with findings elsewhere and perhaps acknowledgment that women and children historically comprise a disproportionate amount of refugees. Regression analysis again finds PAN supporters to be less supportive than other respondents, although this distinction declines once controlling for gender, age, education and income, of which only age corresponded with a statistically significant decline in support. It is common for older individuals to oppose immigration due to generational changes in attitude, so this finding is not unexpected.

We also asked the question “On a 1-10 scale, with 1 being very negative and 10 very positive, how do you feel about the following countries?” Among countries listed were the sources of the Central American refugees, the three Northern Triangle countries. All three received similar average scores (Guatemala: 4.33, Honduras: 4.05, El Salvador: 4.01), higher than Venezuela (3.25), but lower than the two other countries rated (US: 7.71, China: 7.26) Yet, even after controlling for general views of the Central American countries, we find the public generally unsupportive of accepting refugees.

How Should Mexico Address the Refugee Crisis?

Towards the end of the Obama administration, aid and other efforts directed at resolving the push factors for migration in Central America, including decreasing violence and limiting corruption, appeared to have some success at reducing migration north. President Trump’s policies largely did not improve the situation, and President Biden has begun to reverse those policies and re-implement measures successful under Obama.

As discussed in a meeting between the Lopez Obrador administration and US Vice President Kamala Harris, Mexico could adopt similar aid policies, and decreasing the flow of migrants may make the Mexican public respond more positively to accepting migrants. Lopez Obrador committed to increased economic cooperation with Central America days into his term, with pledges of aid as well, but these efforts remain underdeveloped. Threats to cut aid expedite deportations only risks worsening the refugee crisis, while doing little to improve public opinion.

Increasingly, the number of family units from Guatemala and Honduras seeking asylum in Mexico, or the United States, represents a mass exodus from Central America’s Northern Triangle to flee insecurity. Combating issues such as extreme poverty and violence in Central American countries producing the mass exodus of refugees could alleviate the impact of the refugee crisis on Mexico. By alleviating the impact of the refugee crisis, refugees seeking asylum will be able to navigate immigration processes easier thus decreasing tension surrounding the influx of refugees.

Likewise, identifying the public’s security and economic concerns surrounding refugees and crafting a response should reduce opposition. A spokesperson for Vice President Harris stated that border enforcement was on the agenda during meetings with the Lopez Obrador administration, but the Mexican foreign minister reportedly stated that border security was not to be addressed at the meeting. Other than deporting migrants at a higher rate than the US, Mexico also signed an agreement with the US in June pledging money to improve opportunities for work in the Northern Triangle. Nonetheless, questions about whether this agreement will bring meaningful change remain pertinent in the light of a worsening crisis.

Our survey research shows little public interest in accepting refugees. Public sentiment is unlikely to change unless the Lopez Obrador administration finds ways to both build sympathy for the plights of refugees and address public concerns about a refugee crisis with no perceived end in sight. For example, research in the US finds public support for refugees is often higher when the emphasis is on women and children, and the Lopez Obrador administration could attempt to frame the crisis as helping specifically these groups who historically comprise most refugees. Likewise, coordinating efforts with the US and other countries may help portray to the public that the burden of refugee resettlement is being equitably shared rather than disproportionately placed on Mexico.

Facing a complex situation affecting multiple governments requires coordinated efforts and considerable resources to reach a long-term solution. Until then, the Central American refugee crisis will continue and public backlash in Mexico likely increase.

Isabel Eliassen is a 2021 Honors graduate of Western Kentucky University. She triple majored in International Affairs, Chinese, and Linguistics.

Alianna Casas is an Honors Undergraduate Researcher at Western Kentucky University, majoring in Business Economics, Political Science, and a participant in the Joint Undergraduate/Master’s Program in Applied Economics.

Timothy S. Rich is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Western Kentucky University and Director of the International Public Opinion Lab (IPOL). His research focuses on public opinion and electoral politics.

Funding for this survey was provided by the Mahurin Honors College at Western Kentucky University.

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