Consider the situation that the State Duma Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (Lower House of the Russian Parliament) has called on the Russian government to immediately allocate money to projects aimed at combating anti-Russian propaganda, Russianophobia, and false information about the Russian Federation in the European Union.
Or, it would ask the government to provide more ambitious financial assistance to the “third sector in the EU Member States”, which promotes improved relations and cooperation between the EU and Russia, promotes Christian values, traditional family and marriage of men and women, peace and inter-national cooperation. What would be the reaction? Silence, cry and a series of articles on Putin’s regime and oppressed “civilian opposition,” but who cannot even get a three per cent support in the elections? Again, new penalties?
Or imagine another situation: How would the so-called European leaders, officials in Brussels, the European Commission and the European Council respond if the Russian Parliament, the Russian President and the Russian Government consistently expressed their grave concern over the deterioration of the human and civil rights situation and the rule of law, for example, in the Baltic Member States with the discriminated Russian minority? Silence and ignorance as heretofore? And how would they react if the Russians constantly criticized and pointed out violations of human and civil rights to Christian communities, such as in France? His president, Emmanuel Macron, is more concerned about the “gay suffering” in Chechnya than the oppressing and ejection of Christian symbols in French schools, or the punishment of Christian denominations and the use of Christian symbols. This childless and value-inconsistent president, who has already begun politically and ideologically breaking the Visegrad Four (V-4) and excitement of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico with his blushing about the “tighter EU core,” in May in Versailles, he even said to President Putin he would be alert regarding gays in Chechnya.
In other words, President Macron and his team, who had robbed Marine Le Pen’s agenda in the election campaign, are likely to be more concerned by gay people in Islamic Chechnya, which still has the largest natural increase in population among all subjects Russian Federation, such as the Russian minority in Ukraine, or peacekeeping and Minsk agreements by Ukrainian President Petr Poroshenko. Does President Macron want to be a gay spokesman in Chechnya, or wants to create a “new turmoil” among gays and Islam that does not recognize and punish homosexuality in this autonomous republic in the Caucasus? I do not want to believe that President Macron would promote sex and the sexual orientation of one group or minority in Chechnya over the human and civil rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine. In still unfortunate Ukraine, which cannot escape from the influence of fascist and Nazi groups tolerated not only by the Poroshenko regime but also by the European Union. Its “Iron Prime Minister”, Angela Merkel, accused former President Yanukovych of refusing to sign an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU in November 2013 in Vilnius. Then, she told him she expected more from him. She was not curious about the arguments of the then Ukrainian government or the president that Ukraine would not survive its “break-away” from Russia and the CIS, and that it needed a substantial financial subsidy of almost 400 billion euros. If we realize after four years what Ukraine “sacrificed” to the altar of “the sacred EU”, what price the Ukrainians have paid for, what they have lost and gained, we must ask – didn´t the Ukrainians rightly expect from Angela Merkel more? And more than what the EU offered and guaranteed?
Now that Lithuania is proposing a New European Plan for Ukraine (the so-called Marshall Plan for Ukraine) for 2017-2020 to get at least € 5bn annually to implement “long-awaited reforms”, what does it prove? That Ukraine, after massive political and military support from the US and the EU or the staff of various international consultants and experts, is still unable to reform its values and the economy for the image of the EU? Don´t you even see this image? This plan of further aid (the exact value of the current financial assistance is still unresolved, which could be a major shock to EU citizens, as in the case of the so-called Kosovo), is to be judged by the November EU Eastern Partnership summit. And there is also another package to be discussed in Brussels in early 2018. Under the EU’s external investment plan for Ukraine, there will be talk of the possibility of earmarking and drawing on € 88bn by 2020. So, if we make a short a reflection on what President Yanukovych told the office of President Merkel in Vilnius, wasn´t he right?
It seems, however, that Mrs Merkel or the entire EU leadership was not about the truth and Ukraine, but about starting another scenario – the coup and the economic chaos in Ukraine. The result is not just a civil war in Donbass and the return of the Crimea to Russia but also the departure of more than 2.5 million Ukrainian citizens – refugees to Russia and more than a million Ukrainians for work and “European life” in Poland. The number of Ukrainians who left for work in other EU countries because they cannot live at home is still not publicly spoken. Nor about how many of them already have Romanian, Hungarian, Polish, Slovak, German or Austrian citizenship. In the case of Slovakia, just a small example – since the abolition of the visa requirement more than 200 000 Ukrainians passed over the Slovak Schengen border, of course, they went further to the West. The way in which Angela Merkel and former French President Francois Hollande supported the unconstitutional coup in Ukraine was and remained scandalously like when the “German-French integration engine” opened the EU to more than a million different migrants in 2014 and 2015, neither the Italians nor the Greeks could keep it. Mrs Angela Merkel, as well as other EU leaders, had already known that was organized by business smugglers and managed migration under the auspices and command of ‘third sector volunteers’. Instead of vigorous and decisive action (protecting borders at sea and on land), the EU, under Angela Merkel, wanted to corrupt Turkey and reimburse the costs of organized crime for a “social and racial engineer project” for the EU and build a so-called refugee Islamic camps in Turkey. Angela Merkel has allowed her to gamble with the EU and its citizens, and left the fate of the migratory crisis in the hands of Ankara.
It was the amazing value and peace policy of the EU, a great demonstration of how the EU, Angela Merkel and other leaders (including Martin Schulz) can crush and make people’s lives safer, threatening peace and security, which later confirmed new sexual and terrorist attacks in Western Europe and Scandinavia. Let’s go back to Russia for a moment. Let’s imagine another Russian reaction – predictable regarding current Russians. Russian constitutional and state organizations declare “the fight against EU propaganda, its lies, its perverse civilization, integration, anti-Christian and cultural values.” They then compile lists of politicians, activists and the media that disseminate “harmful and false EU propaganda” on the contrary to traditional Russian civilization values. Subsequently, special foundations, funds and civic associations will be set up to organize various seminars and discussions with citizens, and to inform the “embarrassed Russian democracy and the Russian society” about these dangers, the EU conspiracy portals and media against Russia and the negative impacts of their activities for the entire Russian society. Do you think Russia does not have to make such a decision? Or is it so internally strong that it does not need to protect the Russian society by such measures?
To sum up, MEPs who voted in favour of alleged Russian political and financial support for “radical and extremist parties” in the EU Member States have not yet been able to tell the public what this is about. They cannot give the public any proof of who, and as of Russia or the “Russian world”, these parties are funding the parties, what is the value of this aid. Nonetheless, the MEPs ask the European Commission to draft a draft legislation guaranteeing the transparency of the funding of political parties in EU countries by foreign entities. I personally would like to support this request, and broaden the requirement for transparency regarding the financing of the Third Sector and not only by foreign but also domestic subjects. Many so-called domestic entities were based on foreign capital. Let’s look at the result of this Members’ initiative. Maybe none. The media, ideological value struggle for the truth continues. Unfortunately, it is not only between American and Russian civilizations, but also between the so- called European (especially Anglo-Saxon) and Russian civilization. If the outcome of this struggle between the EU and Russia is a new constructive dialogue based on the truth, the recognition of errors and mistakes, the renewal of the strategic partnership between the EU and Russia, everyone will be relieved. In this case, there will be a new era of economic, cultural and social development in Europe and Russia. We all need such development.
Dayton Peace Accord 23 Years On: Ensured Peace and Stability in Former Yugoslavia
For the past twenty-three years life has been comparatively peaceful in the breakaway republics of the former Yugoslavia. The complicated civil war that began in Yugoslavia in 1991 had numerous causes and began to break up along the ethnic lines. The touching stories and the aftermath effects of the breakaway republics of Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and in Kosovo are still unfolding. Though the numbers of deaths in the Bosnia- Herzegovina conflict in former Yugoslavia are not known precisely, most sources agree that the estimates of deaths vary between 150,000 to 200,000 and displaced more than two million people. During the conflict a Srebrenica a North-eastern enclave of Bosnia once declared as a United Nations (UN ) safe area” saw one of the worst atrocity since second world war.
It has been estimated that more than 8,000 Muslim Bosniaks were massacred in Srebrenica and it was one of the most brutal ethnic cleansing operations of its kind in modern warfare. The US brokered peace talks revived the a peace process between the three warring factions in Bosnia- Herzegovina. For Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina a United States (US ) -brokered peace deal reached in Dayton on 21st November 1995. In a historic reconciliation bid on 14 December 1995 , the Dayton Peace Accord was signed in Paris, France, between Franjo Tudjman president of the Republic of Croatia and Slobodan Milosevic president of the Federal Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro), Alija Izetbegovic, president of the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
When conflict in Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia ended, the reconciliation began between ethnically divided region. The US played a crucial role in defining the direction of the Peace process. In 1996, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) -led 60,000 multinational peace enforcement force known as the Implementation Force (IFOR)) was deployed to help preserve the cease-fire and enforce the treaty provisions. Thereafter, the Court was established by Resolution 808 and later, Resolution 827 of the United Nations Security Council, which endorsed to proceed with setting up of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) to try crimes against humanity . International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was the first United Nations (UN) war crimes tribunal of its kind since the post-second world war Nuremberg tribunal.
In the late 1990’s, as the political crisis deepened a spiral of violence fuelled the Kosovo crisis between the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and the Yugoslav forces. Unlike the Bosnia- Herzegovina, Kosovo was a province of Serbia, of former Yugoslavia that dates back to 1946, when Kosovo gained autonomy as a province within Serbia. It is estimated that more than 800,000. Kosovos were forced out of Kosovo in search of refuge and as many as 500,000 more were displaced within Kosovo.
Subsequent t hostilities in Kosovo the eleven week air campaign led by NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) against Yugoslavia in 1999 the Yugoslavian forces pulled troops out of Kosovo NATO. After the war was over, the United Nations Security Council, under the resolution 1244 (1999) approved to establish an international civil presence in Kosovo, known as the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Nevertheless UNMIK regulation No 1999/24 provided that the Law in Force in Kosovo prior to March 22, 1989 would serve as the applicable law for the duration of the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).
In this context reconciliation is a key to national healing of wounds after ending a violent conflict. Healing the wounds of the past and redressing past wrongs is a process through which a society moves from a divided past to a shared future. Over the years in Serbia, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and in Kosovo the successful peace building processes had happened. The success of the peace building process was possible because of participation of those concerned, and since appropriate strategies to effectively approach was applied with all relevant actors. The strengthening of institutions for the benefit of all citizens has many important benefits for the peace and stability of former Yugoslavia. Hence, the future looks bright for the Balkan states of Serbia, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and Kosovo.
Hungarian Interest, Ukraine and European Values
Diplomatic conflicts that have recently arisen between Hungary and its neighboring countries and the European Union as a whole most clearly show the new trend in European politics. This trend is committing to national and state values of a specific European country, doubting the priority of supranational interests within the European Union. Political analyst Timofey Bordachev believes that “the era of stale politics and the same stale politicians, who make backstage decisions based on the“ lowest common denominator,” are finally coming to an end. Politicians with a new vision of the world order come to power, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Austrian Federal Chancellor Sebastian Kurtz, or the new head of the Italian Interior Ministry, leader of the right-wing League of the North Party, Matteo Salvini ”.
It is not the first year that Hungary is trying to protect the interests of its citizens and the state from external influence, to protect the Hungarians in the territory of neighbouring states by establishing for this a special position (Commissioner for the development of the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine), to determine relations with other countries on the basis of their attitude to the rights of Hungarians. This is how conflicts with the European Union arose, after Hungary refused to let migrants into the country, in the same manner, a conflict arose with Ukraine, which is trying to build a state ideology, based on nationalism, which a priori does not provide for the proper level of realization and protection of the rights of non-titular nations.
In relation to Hungary, Ukraine follows the same policy as in relation to Russia – to initiate various accusations, to call for punishment, to talk about the inconsistency with European values of the Hungarian policy under the leadership of Orban. Doing so Kiev has its multifaceted interest: cooperation with NATO and the EU, support for any decisions of Brussels, the anti-Russian course, domestic policy based on the nationalist ideology. And in all these areas Hungary poses a problem for Ukraine. In the description of relations with Hungary Kiev even uses the word “annexation“.
Hungary is hardly planning to seize any Ukrainian territory, but on what grounds Ukraine falsely accuses Hungary of its annexation intentions in relation to Transcarpathia? The Ukrainian side highlights several positions:
Issuing Hungarian passports to Ukrainian citizens (ethnic Hungerians)
This is an old story, it has come to light again recently due to the growth of Ukrainian nationalism. Moreover, there are concerns about the implementation by Hungary of the “Crimean scenario” in relation to Transcarpathia.
The Hungarian government has created the position of “Commissioner for the development of Ukraine’s Transcarpathian region and the program for the development of kindergartens in the Carpathian region”.
Ukraine demanded an explanation. A note of protest was delivered to the Hungarian Charge d’Affaires in Ukraine, and the Foreign ministers of Ukraine and Hungary had a telephone conversation on the problem. Hungary continues to ignore the requirements of Kiev.
Ukraine fears further disintegration processes
At the same time, in Kiev there is no understanding of the fact that combining the ideology of nationalism with the country’s national diversity and European integration is hardly possible.
Ukrainian experts note the growth of separatism in the Transcarpathian region, as well as the “strange behavior” of the governor, who plays on the side of Hungary. They also complain that “pro-Ukrainian ideology”(?) is not being сonsolidated in Transcarpathia, and this region is not controlled and monitored by the Ministry of information. In a word, the state is losing control over the territory, which it neither develops nor controls. Such behavior of the governor and the region’s residents may indicate that the state is not sufficiently present in the lives of residents of Transcarpathia, and this a financial and humanitarian drawback they compensate with the help of Hungary, – experts believe.
Apparently, Ukraine is unable to reach an agreement with Hungary as relations are tense. In response to the Ukrainian law on education, adopted in the fall of 2017, which infringes the rights of national minorities, Budapest blocked another, the third, Ukraine-NATO meeting. Ukraine witnessed this embarrassing situation in April 2018. At the same time elections were held in Hungary, in which Viktor Orban’s party won a majority in the parliament. Such a tough stance of Budapest in relation to the Ukrainian educational policy Kiev considered to be just a sign of electoral populism. However, this was a mistake.
Viktor Orban’s victory in spring 2018 was convincing, and a convincing victory means obvious support of his migration policies as well as his support for compatriots abroad. The party of Orban – Fides – not only won a majority but a constitutional majority – 133 of the 199 seats in the National Assembly of Hungary.
There is no doubt that Hungary has become Ukraine’s another serious opponent in the process of its European integration. And it is unlikely that either country will take a step back: there will be presidential elections in Ukraine soon, and in Hungary, the victory won by Orban, apparently, confirms the approval of his independent foreign policy by the citizens. So the conflict is likely to develop.
First published in our partner International Affairs
Belt and Road Alternatives: The European Strategy
The European Union (EU) has put forward a plan for enhancing connectivity within Asia, which has been dubbed as the Asia Connectivity Strategy.
The EU does not want to give an impression, that the Asia Connectivity Strategy (ACS) is a counter to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Yet, senior officials of the EU, while commenting on the broad aims and objectives of the project, have categorically stated, that the primary goal of the Asia Connectivity Strategy, is enhancing connectivity (physical and digital) while also ensuring, that local communities benefit from such a project, and environmental and social norms are not flouted (this is a clear allusion to the shortcomings of the BRI). There are no clear details with regard to the budget, and other modalities of the project (EU member countries are likely to give a go ahead for this project, before the Asia-Europe Meeting in October 2018). EU has categorically stated, that it would like to ensure that the ACS is economically sustainable.
Other alternatives to BRI
It is not just the EU, but even the US, along with Japan and Australia. which are trying to create an alternative vision to the BRI.
The US alternative to the BRI, is being funded by the recently created United States International Development Finance Corporation (USDFC) (an organization which will merge Overseas Private Investment Corporation and other Development Finance Programs) which came into being after the passing of the BUILD (Better Utilization of Investments leading to Development) Act recently.
It would be pertinent to point out, that the US which has been accused of lacking a cohesive vision to counter China’s BRI has in recent months spoken, on more than one occasion, about greater the dire need for robust connectivity in the Indo-Pacific. In July 2018 US Secretary of State while speaking at the Indo-Pacific Business Forum committed an amount of $113 million for U.S. initiatives to support projects related to digital economy, energy, and infrastructure. The Secretary of State, while speaking about close links between US and Indo-Pacific, also spoke about the need for greater private sector involvement in projects in the Indo-Pacific. Pompeo off late, has also been reaching out pro-actively to a number of countries in South East Asia, and visited Malaysia, Indonesia in August 2018.
It would be pertinent to point out that OPIC (now part of USFDC) has already signed with the overseas finance development arms of Japan and Australia, and is in talks with India to work jointly. Some of the areas being explored for joint investments are energy, infrastructure.
It is not just the US, even Japan has come with it’s own alternative, Partnership for Quality Infrastructure (PQI), to the BRI.
Potential Appeal of the Asia Connectivity Strategy
So the question then arises, why would countries seeking an alternative to China, not come on board the US’ connectivity initiative. The ‘Asia Connectivity Strategy’ may be especially acceptable to leaders, who do not want to be seen as blindly following US diktats, but who are also uncomfortable with Beijing’s economic policies, and want to avoid falling into what has been dubbed as Beijing’s ‘debt trap’ diplomacy. A perfect example being Malaysian Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohammad who scrapped projects worth 40 Billion USD, and also referred to the rise of a ‘new colonialism’ being promoted by China. The Malaysian PM has not shared a particularly cordial relationship with the US in the past. While addressing the United Nations General Assembly (unga), Mahathir made some interesting points, saying that Malaysians want a Malaysia, which seeks relations based on ‘mutual respect’ and a Malaysia, that is ‘neutral’ and ‘non aligned’
EU itself trying to strike a balance
EU Chief, Jean Claude Juncker, has been pitching for a more pro-active response to Trump’s insular policies, as well as China’s BRI. Given the fact, that EU has taken a divergent stand from US on the Iran issue, and has proposed a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) which will ensure that trade with Iran continues, even before the impending US sanctions to be imposed on Iran in November 2018. The SPV was announced, jointly with Russia and China, on the sidelines of the UNGA.
At the UNGA, French President, Emmanuel Macron disagreed with Trump’s views with regard to Iran, and supported the 2015 Vienna Accord. Said Macron: We know that Iran was on a nuclear military path but what stopped it? The 2015 Vienna accord.”
While it remains to be seen, if the SPV set up by EU works or not, but a number of countries which do not want to be part of the Chinese or American orbit would be attracted towards the EU, in spite of all the problems it is facing, due to it’s capacity to take an independent stand.
Asia Connectivity Strategy is not only about competition
It remains to be seen whether the Asia Connectivity Strategy can gain traction. In terms of connectivity, there may even be strong overlaps with the ‘Indo-Pacific vision’. France, which has strengthened strategic ties with Australia and India, is already seeking to play a pro-active role in the Indo-Pacific.
French President Emmanuel Macron had referred to the need for a strong Paris-Canberra-New Delhi axis, during his Australia visit, as a counter to China’s increasing assertiveness.
Interestingly, while there is a realization, that Asian Connectivity Strategy has a competitive element, and there are some clear differences between EU’s strategy and BRI, there are also some who believe, that there is space for collaboration between the Asia Connectivity Strategy and BRI. This point has been put forward by some policy makers and strategic commentators in EU, as well as sections of the Chinese media. Wang Wen Wen in an article for the Global Times, argues:
‘Asia needs Europe as much as it needs China. Since the EU and China are the two largest economic entities in Eurasia, it is vital that they steward the continent’s economic development agenda. Some programs in the BRI have carried out cooperation with the European side on technology and equipment procurement.’
In conclusion, the Asia Connectivity Strategy is an interesting idea. A lot will depend upon available resources and the response of potential stakeholders. But EU going ahead with such an initiative in spite of numerous problems within is truly laudable.
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