President Uhuru Kenyatta must be advised and made aware that should he intend to, think of, or try to become anything closer to an autocratic ruler or a dictator, his dictatorship will be a weaker one and will never cease to avoid accommodating the masses (NASA supporters), or fall to a coup d’état.
It will confirm to him and his team that a democratic form of government is the logical and the historical progression of governments being forced to accommodate the wishes of the citizenry not region-ry.
In the Kantian theory of virtue, autocracy he defined to be a state in which an agent has rational self-rule over himself informed by radical evil, thereby taking the right attitude toward his own sensible nature and managing it appropriately. The Kantian virtuous person therefore is a person enjoined by duty to control, maintain and cultivate emotional states. The success of it results into a virtuous agent who is at peace with himself and the people he leads. Therefore, the calmness and tranquil always prepare him to stand down the potential threat to good conduct that his propensity to evil could pose.
The current political situation in Kenya have caused many to develop a (misled) perception that the country is heading to autocratic or dictatorial rule. In fact, believers of this misconceived theory argue that should Uhuru wins or be declared the fifth president of the republic of Kenya, the writing seems to be on the wall that he is likely to become an autocratic President.
Further, the recent behavior of Uhuru Kenyatta appears to be dominated by uncontrolled emotions which looks like the key contributors to all recent his action and behaviors whether he is in the state house or Harambee house or in the streets campaigning. Not only Media houses have captured, quoted and reported this, individual people have s well done great work in reporting the same on social media.
It may be true that Uhuru Kenyatta may have been carried away with his emotions or said what he ought not to have said, he might have abused the chief justice and the judiciary or Raila and the NASA team or the Luos and other people from a given ethnic community, but that does not make him an autocratic ruler or will lead him into becoming one.
Africa in the 21st century is far much different from the Africa in 19th or 20th century. The Kenya of 2017 can and will never be the same as the Kenya of between 1966-2002. No one will ever succeed as an autocratic president in Kenya. Whether he comes from either the majority or minority ethnic community in Kenya. The people of the modern Kenya cannot allow that. Never.
We read daily in the historic books that former president Moi was an autocratic and dictatorial ruler and that he ruled the country as his personal enterprise, the way himself wanted and for about twenty four years he succeeded. Maybe what we need to ask is… what are some of the reasons why Moi’s autocratic rule lasted for long? The simple answer is that there were no independent judges like Njoki Sussana Ndung’u or Smokin Wanjala to either dissent or accept. Moi was the judge, the president, the speaker of the national assembly, the bishop, the Sheikh, the Pope and the Chancellor of all Kenyan public Universities. Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi was everything.
Kenya has undergone through many legal systemic changes that makes it simply impossible for any autocratic ruler to prevail. Maybe for one or two days, an autocratic ruler can survive, however, he cannot resist the wave on the third day, and he will be gone. Kenyans themselves have tasted, enjoyed and celebrated the fruits of democracy since 1992 when section 2A was finally repealed. People had a chance to see for themselves the beauty of freedom when the dangers of an autocratic ruler was exposed.
One of the greatest achievements which is the victory of all Kenyans was the promulgation of the new Constitution in 2010. This Constitution captured most of the fundamental issues which initially were lacking in the old one hence gave room and sustained autocratic rulers. These were the very issues which created room for President Moi and his team to authoritatively rule Kenya with an iron rod without fear of anything. Some of the major achievements of 2010 Constitution which has sorted out and done away with any autocratic ruler are;
The 2010 Constitution made it legally impossible for anyone to reign for more than two term (ten years). This is to say, an individual is legally allowed to only rule for ten years and not more as it was during Moi’s time. The creation of devolution (County government) has settled out the problems of imbalance development. Moi was accused of exercising economic sabotage in some parts of Kenya especially those seen to be opposition strong holds or opposition friendly.
It means, whether one region or county supports the government in place or not, their share will still be given out to them and should the government refuse or delay, they simply go to court and have this money allocated to them released even as required by the Constitution. This also means, these regions are able to develop, create jobs for it people and improve livelihoods of the people residing within them with or without begging, singing or dancing to the tune mtukufu rais.
Thirdly, the 2010 Constitution created and established strong horizontal exercising of power. This is to say, it established clear roles of branches of government such as the parliament for making of laws, judiciary for interpreting such laws and the executives for the implementation of both the formulated and the interpreted laws. Each of these branches stands on its own, independent and away from any form of interference. Power is shared horizontally and not vertically as it used to be before.
Because of the above reasons, it is almost impossible for whoever rules to influence both the three branches of governments, maybe he can influence one or two but not all. It is open that former Presidents like Jomo Kenyatta, Moi and even Mwa Kibaki hugely managed to rule because Kenya had a weak Constitution to protect its citizen from autocratic rulers. Again, power was vertically exercised.
In addition, probably the most celebrated accomplishment of the 2010 Constitution is the inclusion of the statement that power belongs to the people of Kenya and the bills of rights and freedom that any Kenyan is allowed to enjoy anywhere anytime any day. The fact that people must be consulted through referendum should there be any need for change in major areas on the Constitution cement it all.
In the days of President Moi, himself was the constitution, what some may call a walking Constitution. Moi could either fire or appoint you when taking tea in his kitchen. It was even illegal to mention the name Moi unconstructively. Those who attempted disappeared miraculously. Some who criticized Moi were picked from their homes, directly from the thighs of their wives, some rushed to the police stations were others were tortured to death while others jailed without trial.
Those who led Kenya by then did so when majority of Kenyans were ignorant of their rights, many did not even have idea that there is something called government or election. Some Kenyan Communities were not aware of the important of the seat of presidency. They were busy taking care of their animals in the bush or with finishing in the deep waters of Lake Victoria or Lake Baringo. They were kept in darkness, fresh tasting the honey. Some were probably made to believe that honey (being in government) is poisonous hence did not bother to know who the president was leave alone knowing how they are elected.
Today, even in the deepest parts of this country Kenyans are not only aware but are actively participating in electing who they think will represent their interests. Kenyans have known why it is important to choose a leader. Kenyans are aware of their Constitutional rights and freedoms. This is why voices of Kenyans are heard from all parts of the country either for or against the government.
Further, the opposition party in Kenya is a force to reckon with. It is equal to the task all together. The Kenya of today, no president can wake up one day and disappear with the opposition leader or officials lest he want his reign ends just that simple. Today, we see opposition leaders calling for mass actions and demonstrations are large number of Kenyans are turning up demanding for their right, something that none could have attempted in the times of Moi or Jomo Kenyatta. In fact, we now hear calls to divide Kenya into two if things cannot work out when together.
Uhuru Kenyatta may win the repeat of election on October 26th 2017. Indeed he maybe attempted to be an autocratic President for one or two days. He may be bitter, hungry or extremely emotional as it appears right now. However, the truth remains, Uhuru Kenyatta can never survive as an autocratic president in Kenya. There is no room for that in the current Kenya. Kenyans will never give him that opportunity. Even his running mate William Rutto also knows that. It is impossible and so there is no point for anyone to worry.
Peacebuilding in Northern Mozambique’s Insurgency: Ways Forward
Abstract: Cabo Delgado, once heartland of the Mozambican national liberation struggle, is turning into an epicenter of conflict and instability, which threatens neighboring countries and regional stability. Armed conflict with Jihadist extremists is exacerbated by privatized security forces and a lack of tangible regional solidarity and security coordination.
Large offshore gas deposits act as an additional driver of conflict while peacebuilding initiatives are still at the very beginning. Extremists aligned with ISIS are emplacing an ecosystem for transnational illegal activity- just as the major gas project development can bring real peace dividends to the impoverished province. In view of escalating violence, it is time for the international response to shift gears and invest in peacebuilding besides counter-insurgency assistance and security sector reforms, including for regulating the activity of private military and security companies. In a new paradigm of partnership with the government, joined-up cooperation, including withfuture gas customers across the Indian Ocean could buttress the response to the escalating violence.
Conflict Trajectory- Armed violence has steadily escalated in Cabo Delgado province of northern Mozambique since 2017. In the last two years, the Jihadist insurgency of “Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama” (ASWJ) has gained momentum beyond rural areas. In August 2020, insurgents took control of Mocimboa da Praia town on the northern coast. The complex attack on 25 March against the densely populated city of Palma targeted a staging area for the large offshore gas development project. As a result, the leading energy firm involved in the gas project, Total Company of France, stopped operations and withdrew its personnel from the area. Experts estimate that currently some 60% of sub-districts in the province are no longer under effective government control. The humanitarian fallout from the fighting is catastrophic:700,000 persons are displaced and around a quarter of the provincial population. The fighting has caused2,800 casualties so far, reportedly more than half of them civilians, according to ACLED humanitarian statistics.
Government Response-The government struggled to keep the insurgency at bay after initial denial of the problem. In 2020, the government took steps to reorganize its security posture in Cabo Delgado and created a joint task force against the terrorists. Mozambique and Tanzania concluded an agreement to form a joint defense and security committee in mid-January 2021 for the purpose of intelligence sharing and coordination.
There has also been a growing readiness to accept foreign military advisers and trainers, while local militia groups were used in parallel. The US and former colonial power Portugal have recently agreed to provide trainers for Mozambican forces. The EU has stepped up planning for a possible EU Military Mission to assist the government, after the SADC neighboring states fielded a recent assessment.
However, Mozambique has been adamant against foreign troop deployments, in keeping with its non-aligned tradition and to safeguard national sovereignty. The SADC regional block started to deliberate about a joint security response in late 2020. However, the recent SADC troika summit meeting on 8-9 April devoted to regional security challenges remained inconclusive.
Reforms in Mozambique’s security sector have been incomplete since the end of the civil war 1977-1992, which has debilitated the army in front line roles against violent extremists. Anti-terror legislation was adopted only in 2018 when the insurgency already began to make itself strongly felt. Security governance is further complicated by Mozambique’s reliance on private military and security firms (PMCs/ PSCs), including from Russia and South Africa (Wagner Group, Dyck Advisory Group/DAG) which failed to rout the Jihadists. In northern Mozambique, these para-military actions have drawn strong criticism from human rights organizations such as Amnesty International. There is testimony accusing security company employees of indiscriminate violence.
Significance of Transnational Extremist Threat- Already in July 2019, the ASWJ insurgents pledged allegiance to the ISIS branch in Central Africa ISCAP which operates in Congo DRC. Their fighting strength is believed to be around 2,000 in Cabo Delgado province. ASWJ publicly committed to applying Sharia Law as agents of a “government of God”, like ISIS in the Middle East and the Al Shabab militia in Somalia. ASWJ has also accused the ruling FRELIMO Party in Mozambique of corruption. In March 2021, the U.S. imposed sanctions against leaders of ISIS-ISCAP and counterparts in ASWJ as terrorists.
Counter-terrorist experts believe that ASWJ which is also locally known as ‘Al Shabab’ (‘Ansar al-Sunna’ or simply as ‘mashababos’)has mostly homegrown origins. However, there are indications that at least some of the leading ASWJ cadres are in fact from Tanzania. Polarization between Mwani and Makonde ethnic groups in provincial sub-districts of Mozambique also plays a role in the violence.
There are growing concerns that the insurgency could spill over into neighboring provinces of Mozambique, especially Nampula and Niassa. Experts have pointed out that there is a risk of expanded territorial control and illicit revenue streams (from timber, precious stones, and heroin smuggling). This might give the insurgents access to more sophisticated arms. The illegal gold mining business is supposedly bankrolling the insurgency against government control measures.
Spillover into Tanzania across the shared border has already occurred. Security analysts are pointing to an expansion trend of ISIS and Jihadist violence in Africa as their new frontier. Cabo Delgado could replicate the violence in the Sahel region and add a trans-continental dimension to extremism by expanding to the Indian Ocean seaboard. In this view, ASWJ- ISCAP could pose a critical threat to the more developed economies in neighboring South Africa and Tanzania as well as for international shipping and trade.
Hydrocarbon Pull Factor in Mozambique’s Insurgency-Cabo Delgado province is a majority Muslim area in Mozambique with a history of government neglect and under-development. Youth unemployment is staggeringly high as well as the levels of illiteracy among youth. The province has also emerged as a national hotspot for COVID-19 infections, due to IDP movements and the influx of persons from across the border in Tanzania where virus controls have been lax.
By contrast, the 20bn USD offshore LNG gas project in the province represents the largest private investment in Africa’s energy sector. Totalenergy firm of Franceaims to produce 13 bn tons of LNG gas annually from 2024. Despite the recent setback, Total has stated that the project remains on track.
The lucrative hydrocarbons development and expected funds flows act as an additional driver of extremist violence, competing with the reach of government authorities. Some sub-contractors might end up paying protection money to the Jihadists, although control of gas wells is not realistic for AWSJ.
Configuring Peacebuilding against Violence in Cabo Delgado- Militarized responses to the insurgency have proven ineffective so far and only made matters worse. Therefore a concerted and multi-dimensional effort is needed to engage in peacebuilding, dialogue and civilian-led security sector reform development with provincial focus. President Filipe Nyusi’s new Agency for Integrated Development of the North (ADIN) is a welcome step towards participatory development planning and giving populations more of a voice in their socio-economic future.
Within the ambit of civilian peacebuilding, there is a need for inclusiveness in Mozambique’s security governance. It is important to ensure control over the private military and security firms in the counter-terrorist campaign. Normative frameworks for private military and security companies in warfare, e.g. the ICoC Voluntary Code of Conduct and the 2008 Montreux Document governing state use of mercenaries, should be localized for the situation in Cabo Delgado. In addition, focused deradicalization and extremist prevention actions specifically targeting youth are required. Specialist counter-terrorist skills training is a critical element in reforming the Mozambican security forces.
Despite generous EU development assistance to the country, the insurgency has so far received little attention in Europe, where Mozambique and Cabo Delgado province are perceived through the lens of humanitarian concerns after successive cyclones, or as an exotic tourist destination. The situation in Cabo Delgado was discussed in the European Parliament in September 2020. Cabo Delgado also featured in a parliamentary hearing in Berlin later that year about current levels of German engagement in conflict-affected areas of Africa. Given the high stakes of the insurgency which is no longer just a side show on the African continent’s conflict map, leading European states might come together to pool their expertise and assist the Government of Mozambique in peacebuilding. A mapping of peace constituencies in Cabo Delgado province is a critical first step, as well as assessing the social media landscape with youth and young women. Comparative insights are available from youth counter- radicalism programs in Tanzania and work with women as peacebuilders by German political foundations in Mozambique, as well as support and expertise from UNDP with Japanese funding commitments for peace support in 2020.
Coordination of these inputs and conflict sensitive implementation alongside the humanitarian relief effort in the Triple Nexus (humanitarian, stabilization and development dimensions) are overdue. Through the established and experienced UN country team, modalities can be found to move from business as usual to shaping the international response in a more focused and impactful way, strengthening local dialogue efforts from Mozambique’s Civil Society, faith leaders and advocacy umbrella groups formed in Cabo Delgado.
In the medium term, innovative development cooperation centered around the expected gas flows from Mozambique to emerging markets in Asia across the Indian Ocean holds promise for scaling up the development response. It is possible to establish structured ‘reverse trades’ of skills training and technology transfers for learning together in the global energy transition through 2050 for decisively improving the situation in Cabo Delgado.
The challenge of COVID-19 in Africa
Since its emergence in December last year, covid-19 has spread rapidly around the world, flooding the health system and weakening the global economy. As a result of the epidemic, the virus has spread across the African continent. So far, nearly 48 countries have been affected, but the impact has been felt from the beginning of the crisis. With the spread of covid-19 on the African continent, Africa has responded rapidly to the epidemic, and the number of cases reported so far has been lower than people had feared. The experience of past epidemics, that is, age structure, certainly works, and so does the response of all actors: the state, civil society, regional organizations… However, the economic and financial impact of the epidemic is enormous. Nevertheless, the challenges are still great due to the strategy adopted by the government, public support for the measures taken, the resilience of the health system, economic impact, cross-border cooperation, etc… In recent years, African countries have done a lot to improve the well-being of the people on the continent. Economic growth is strong. The digital revolution has begun. The free trade zone has been decided. But the epidemic threatens progress in Africa. It will exacerbate existing inequalities, hunger, malnutrition and vulnerability to disease. Demand for African goods, tourism and remittances have declined. The opening of the free trade zone has been delayed, and millions of people may fall into abject poverty.
The African continent has some advantages
However, the continent’s unique demographic structure suggests that it may not be as affected by the epidemic as the rest of the world. In fact, globally, people over the age of 65 are the age group most likely to be complicated by the epidemic. In Africa, a very young continent, only 4% of the population belongs to this age group (20% in France, 16% in the United States and 11% in China). This will make Africa’s experience different from that of its aging European and Asian neighbors. Another factor of hope that has been repeatedly mentioned is the climate of the African continent, which will not be conducive to the spread of the virus. However, so far, this theory has not been supported by any data.
Moreover, the health crisis we are facing is not the only one that has affected the African continent in recent years. For example, since 2013, the Ebola epidemic has killed tens of thousands of Africans, providing crisis management experience for the affected countries. After discovering that Asia, Europe and the United States have been seriously affected by the virus, this may partly explain why many countries on the African continent have taken swift and severe measures, such as checking airport temperature, closing borders, closing airports, closing airports, closing airports, etc. Suspension of international flights or isolation measures. The virus spread rapidly in Europe before it really affected Africa, which is why some African governments responded highly to the crisis.
However, some inherent factors in the African continent hinder the implementation of certain preventive measures, which are of the same scale as those in Europe, Asia or the United States. Social distance is complex in a continent where nearly 200 million people live in crowded shantytowns or are used to living in harmony with their families. In addition, some Africans live in a water shortage environment, especially in remote urban areas, which makes simple (effective) gestures (such as washing hands regularly) difficult.
Finally, measures to limit the employment of citizens may endanger the survival of many people, since half of the population lives on less than $2 a day, has no savings or wealth, and the informal sector accounts for 85.8% of employment. It should also be noted that the large-scale spread on the continent is worrisome because it is estimated that the health systems of African countries are at different levels, but most of them are not able to cope. They lack not only medical staff, but also equipment, especially for the treatment of people living with HIV. Respirators are not enough for patients. The African continent, in particular, still faces treatable but in many cases fatal diseases: AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. The burden of covid-19 on the medical system often hinders the treatment of these other diseases.
What is the impact on African economy? It’s hard to say. However, the impact was felt even before the first pollution case was announced. In fact, intra African trade currently accounts for less than 18% of the continent’s trade, which means that Africa’s economy is heavily dependent on trade with the rest of the world. In addition, the industry of the African continent is mainly concentrated in raw materials. Due to the crisis, the prices of raw materials have been seriously affected. Some of Africa’s major economies are still heavily dependent on exports of resources such as oil or minerals. The global crisis has led to a collapse in the prices and demand for these raw materials, although their exports account for more than a quarter of the total exports of 25 countries and 55% of Africa’s GDP.
Border closures also make it impossible for these countries to rely on tourists to restore their economic health. The epidemic may help to redefine the relationship between African countries and external actors. Finally, most of these countries do not have the capacity to deploy economic support or stimulus plans on a scale comparable to that of western countries to limit the impact of the crisis. In this regard, we understand that despite the collapse of tourism, Egypt is one of the most resilient economies on the African continent. Thanks to “strong domestic markets and the authorities’ strong response to fiscal and monetary policy”, the country even feels luxurious to be one of the few countries to achieve positive growth (+ 3.5%) in 2020.
SADC Counts on EU and US for Security Funding in Mozambique
The 16-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) is counting funding from the United States and European Union (EU) to support its proposed military deployment (3,000 troops) in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique, according to Andre Thomashausen, professor emeritus of international law at the University of South Africa (UNISA).
Thomashausen said that Pretoria “is desperately seeking” ways to strengthen and rehabilitate its military operational capabilities through the intervention in northern Mozambique and “SADC wants this entire operation to be funded by support from the European Union and, to some extent, the United States. SADC is envisaging a role for the European Union of financial rather than logistical or human resources support.”
SADC technical assessment mission has proposed sending a military intervention force of 3,000 troops as part of its response to help fight the militant insurgency in Mozambique. In terms of military assets, the SADC assessment team proposes that 16 be sent to Mozambique, namely two patrol ships, a submarine, a maritime surveillance plane, six helicopters, two drones and four transport planes.
On April 28, Southern African ministers have agreed to deploy a regional force in Mozambique. But the Southern African leaders meeting that was scheduled for April 29 to assess the security situation and offer the final approval for deployment of SADC military force was postponed due to unavailability of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi.
Botswana is the current chair of the SADC division, which is tasked with promoting peace and security in the region. Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi is quarantined due to Covid-19. Ramaphosa was busy giving testimony to an inquiry into corruption under his predecessor Jacob Zuma.
Botswana and South Africa along with Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, are the current members of the SADC security organ troika. The three would have met Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi at the summit to decide whether to accept the proposed intervention plan.
The insurgency broke out in Mozambique’s northeast in 2017 and the rebels have stepped up attacks in the past years, with the latest March 24 heinous attack left more than 2,800 deaths, according to several reports, and about 714,000 people displaced, according to government sources.
The worsening security situation is a major setback for Mozambique. While it hopes to reap nearly US$100 billion in revenue over 25 years from LNG projects, the state failed its pledge to maintain and enforce security after several warnings. Now French energy group Total declared force majeure on its €20 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) project following the insurgent attacks. The gas project located about six kilometers from the city that suffered the armed attack in March.
In an official release, the Paris based Total officials said considering the evolution of the security situation in the north of the Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique, Total confirms the withdrawal of all Mozambique LNG project personnel from the Afungi site. This situation leads Total, as operator of Mozambique LNG project, to declare force majeure. The suspension of work arising from the “Declaration of Force Majeure” will remain in force until the government restores security in a verifiable and sustainable manner.
Besides that, Mozambique is rocked with frequent kidnappings. In a recent interview with Lusa, the president of Confederation of Economic Associations of Mozambique (CTA), the largest employers’ association in the country, Agostinho Vuma, said that kidnappings targeting entrepreneurs and their relatives are a negative feature of the country’s business environment.
In addition, a report by ratings agency Standard & Poor Global also said militant attacks in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province still pose a “significant threat” to production facilities associated with one the biggest natural gas discoveries in the world.
S&P, which ranks Mozambique’s foreign debt at CCC+, seven rungs below investment grade, said it expected economic growth in the country to recover in 2021 on higher mining output, especially linked to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production.
But that rebound was subject to completion of the gas projects in the face of mounting security risks, as well as risks of droughts and flooding. Mozambique was battered by two massive cyclones in 2019, and another hit its shores in this year.
“If this project comes on stream as expected by 2024-2025, it will benefit Mozambique’s economic outlook, and support wealth levels that are currently very low by global comparison,” said S&P. But most benefits will materialize beyond our current forecast horizon as gas production will likely come on stream in 2025 given the delays experienced in 2021.”
The ratings firm project gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 2.5% in 2021 after last year’s 1.25% contraction. It however sees economic growth to average 5.5% from 2022 onwards.
With an approximate population of 30 million, Mozambique is endowed with rich and extensive natural resources, but remains as one of the poorest and most underdeveloped countries in the world. It is one of the 16 countries, with collective responsibility to promote socio-economic and political and security cooperation, within the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
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