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Xiamen BRICS Summit: Triumph for Indian Diplomacy

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The 9th BRICS summit was concluded on September 4, 2017 in Xiamen, China. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) group was formed in 2006 to deepen cooperation in economic sphere and laud efforts to transform international governance system.

In December 2010, China chaired BRIC summit and invited South Africa to join group of emerging economies, which gave birth to BRICS acronym. So far, 9 summits has been concluded and recent was held in Xiamen, China.

Xiamen summit is extremely important for Pakistan and its relations with its all-weather friend China. It is widely acknowledged that two nations have maintained close friendship and cordiality since past six decades, and China always come forward to support Pakistan in crucial times. Collaboration in military-nuclear arenas and concerted efforts to combat terrorism are well documented and recognized. However recent summit declaration caused mutilation to close strategic partnership between two friends. India has won its long awaited war with concerted efforts and energies to include Pakistan based terrorist organizations. 

The BRICS members “expressed concern on the security situation in the region and violence caused by the Taliban, ISIL/DAISH, Al-Qaeda and its affiliates including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir”. The statement said, we “condemn all forms of terrorism and manifestations wherever committed and by whomsoever and stress that there can be no justification whatsoever for any act of terrorism. We affirm that those responsible for committing, organizing, or supporting terrorist acts must be held accountable”.[1]  Moreover group members reaffirm solidarity and resolve to combat terrorism and call upon all nations to adopt comprehensive approach to fight against terrorism.

The inclusion of Pakistan-based terror groups in summit document indicated a shift in the Chinese view towards terror groups operating out of Pakistan. During the last BRICS summit in Goa, China rebuffed Indian efforts to include Pakistan based terror groups in declaration, despite India provided evidences to China about involvement of Pakistan led terrorist groups in various terrorist attacks ensued in India. [2] Here a thoughtful question has appeared that, Why China agreed to include Pakistan-based terrorist groups in summit declaration?

There are three possible factors influence in China’s shift towards India and Pakistan-based terror outfits.

First, Doklam standoff has played significant role in China’s shift to deal its South Asian competitor. After more than two and half months tense standoff between Indian Army and the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) on Himalayan territory, Doklam standoff has come to an end.  On August 28, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), India and Foreign Ministry of China issued statements that both countries had reached a disengagement agreement.[3] The standoff escalated in June this year, when PLA started to extend road infrastructure in Dolam, which is part of Doklam region, a disputed territory between Bhutan and China. Indian troops interdicted the PLA to extend a road southward towards Jampheri Ridge, which is strategically important for the Indian army. India claimed that Chinese road construction will seriously hamper Indian security settings in the area, and opposed to unilateral changes in the status quo in the region by China. Since then, two armies were standing face to face and threat of war between two nuclear states was looming on surface.

 The Doklam standoff was a test case for both India and China to show off power and resistance, as well as peaceful channels to diffuse tensions. From the very first day, China stressed India to withdraw its troops unilaterally before settling dispute diplomatically, however India displayed no sign to withdraw its forces until successful agreement of disengagement. Even though escalation on border, both countries continued diplomatic channels to resolve the issue and finally reached an agreement to disengage troops. But these two months long standoff provided an opportunity to India to check its resistance power against its large rival in Asia. India successfully tested its military muscle against China and recognized that it has capacity to resist against Chinese aggression. Whereas, China has admitted that right time has not come to involve in conflict with India and 21st century India is not alike 1962 India. Contemporary India is nuclear power with large conventional army and have close strategic partnership with the U.S and Japan which are strategic rivals of China in Asia Pacific. The fear of mutual destruction in case of nuclear war deter China to further escalate the conflict. Thus, China admitted that peaceful relations with its larger and antagonistic neighbor are necessity of time.

Secondly, India has successfully projected its diplomatic power around the world and employed various diplomatic tactics including; aggressive diplomacy towards its weak neighboring countries, and shuttle diplomacy towards other developed countries to garner support for India. It diplomatic crew bridged close working relationship with newly elected President Doland Trump administration in the U.S. Therefore existing close Indo-U.S relationship transformed into new strategic partnership with announcement of President Trump to grant greater role to India in Afghanistan. His speech indicated, that India has invested heavily in the U.S. to gain support for its future endeavors, and its fruits reflected by tougher approach towards Pakistan adopted by the U.S. president. Moreover, since assuming Premiership, Premier Narendra Modi paid several state visits to European countries and concluded billions of dollar agreements in economic and military arenas which amplified profile of the country.

A brighter example of Indian diplomatic triumph can be found in the UNSC by presenting joint resolution by India and the U.S. to designate Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jammad-ud-Dawa as international terrorist outfits. Meanwhile, another joint proposal was put forward by the U.S, UK and France on January 19, 2017 to declare Molana Masood Azhar as terrorist. Previously by using veto power, China blocked all Indian bids and employed a technical hold on UNSC resolutions. However, Xiamen Summit declaration exposed flaws in Chinese diplomacy against Indian systematic and concerted diplomacy. New Delhi successfully converge Beijing to withdraw its support for Pakistan and included names of Pakistan-based terrorist organizations in the summit document. Its partners in the grouping also supported and persuaded China to change its foreign policy towards India for smooth and brighter future of the group.

It can be claimed that 9th BRICS summit paved the way for concerted efforts to combat terrorism in all its forms. Similarly it is an indication that China may not oppose Indian resolutions in the UNSC to label Pakistan based organizations as terrorist outfits. Another scenario is emerging about Beijing’s accession for India’s permanent position in the UNSC and Inclusion into NSG.

Thirdly, insertion of Pakistan-based organizations in terrorist organizations list is another major obstruction to already crumbling foreign policy of the country. Since 2013 elections, newly elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif withhold position of foreign minister, and only appointed advisor on foreign affairs. practically has no say in foreign affairs and all major decisions were taken by the Prime Minister His decision and tenure in the Prime Minister office seriously cause damage to foreign relations of the country and add new challenges in already vacillated foreign policy and diplomacy. Though, Pakistan was aware about BRICS summit and Indian intentions, but Islamabad did not take notice seriously and concentrated its energies on recently announced U.S. strategy for Afghanistan and South Asia. It seems that Islamabad overlooked emerging geopolitical situation after Doklam standoff and did not realize to contain Indian efforts against Pakistan. Equally important is that Pakistan failed to converge Beijing for its concerns about Indian intentions in BRICS summit. Contrary, it is a significant achievement by India to persuade Beijing for cross border terrorism. A China-based scholar argued that after Beijing’s backing for Indian concerns about terrorism by Islamabad-based terror outfits, pressure will be augmented on Pakistan. At last, Xiamen summit declaration is total failure of Islamabad’s foreign policy and diplomacy and triumph for Indian foreign policy.

[1] BRICS 9th Summit Document

[2] PTI, BEICS: In a first, China denounces terror groups based in Pakistan, Telangana Today, September 4, 2017, https://telanganatoday.com/china-terror-groups-pakistan

[3] Ankit Panda, Disengagement at Doklam: Why and How Did the India-China standoff End, The Diplomat, August 29,2017

[4] PTI, BRICS Summit 2017: Xiamen Declaration may strain China-Pakistan ties, says Scholar Hu Shisheng, First Post, September 4, 2017, http://www.firstpost.com/world/brics-summit-2017-xiamen-declaration-may-strain-china-pakistan-ties-says-scholar-hu-shisheng-4008337.html 

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Religion Freedom Index of Bangladesh: Current Developments and Government Responses

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Pope Francis joins in prayers led by a Rohingya Muslim man at an inter-religious conference at St Mary’s Cathedral in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on December 1, 2017. Mohammad Ponir Hossain / Reuters

Aid to the Church in Need (ACN) recently published its annual Religious Freedom in the World 2021 Report (RFR) that scrutinizes the situation for all major religion groups in 196 countries across the world. The report found that, over the past two years, oppression against susceptible faith communities has augmented in all but one of the 26 countries listed in the survey’s worst (‘red’) category. Bangladesh is that only country whose position on the red list of religious persecution remains unchanged.

The annual report says that religious freedom is being undermined in one out of every three countries in the world which composed two-thirds of the world population. 62 countries out of a total of 196 face severe violations of religious freedom. The situation of minorities in India and Pakistan is deteriorating further. The situation in China and Myanmar is the worst. According to the report, the situation is worse in 95 percent of the 26 countries where persecution is taking place. Nine new countries have been included in this list- seven from Africa and two from Asia.

The report on Bangladesh says that the torture of minorities has not increased in recent years but the influence of Islamic groups is increasing in the politics of Bangladesh. However, the government has been successful in subdue the influence and maintaining religious freedom. For instance, after the rise of Islam-fabric politicization leading by “Hefazat-e-Islam”, the top leaders and at least 375 people nabbed for their recent violent activities. The strict position of law enforcement agencies against the rampage of the group denotes the zero-tolerance of Bangladesh government in ensuring religious freedom and upholding “secularism” which is one of the state principals of its constitution. The argument can be evident with the recent report of the European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS) titled, “Bangladesh and Pakistan: acting against extremism versus making a show of acting against extremism”. Highlighting the activities of the Islamist group Hefazat-e-Islam (HIB) in Bangladesh and the radical Tehreek-e-Labbaik (TLP) in Pakistan, the report comments that Bangladesh government has been making “noticeable progress in dealing with the radical Islamist HIB whereas Pakistan has floundered dramatically in its inconsistent, ill-considered and ill-implemented attempts to pacify the TLP”. Besides, the initiatives of the Bangladesh government in protecting the minority rights are so much praiseworthy.

According to the 2019 Report on International Religious Freedom of US Department of State, to advocate the minority rights and to foster religious tolerance, Bangladesh government has taken a number of initiatives such as-

•Providing guidance to imams throughout the country to prevent militancy and monitoring mosques for “provocative messaging”.

•Deploying law enforcement personnel at religious sites, festivals, and events considering potential violence. The Economic Times reported that 30,000 and 31,272Durga Pujas were organized across the country in 2017 and 2018 respectively without any security issue.

•Zero-tolerance to Islamic militancy. For instance, Special Tribunal convicted and sentenced to death seven of eight defendants who were accused in the 2016 killings of 22 mostly non-Muslim individuals at the Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka.

•Offering stipends to students from the minority groups in the primary and secondary level; and

•Providing funds for minority rituals and social activities.

Most importantly, Bangladesh ensures a level playing field in the employment sectors and a viable people-to-people contact. ‘Dhormo Jaar Jaar, Utsob Shobar,’ (Religion for own, but festivals for all” is a testimony of its secular values and communal harmony. The ACN report itself showed, in Bangladesh, where due to fear of infection, minority faith groups were incapable of offering the last rites to family members, an Islamic charity buried not only Muslim but also Hindu and Christian victims of COVID-19. Besides, reliefs were equally provided to every sector of the society regardless of their race or religion.

To conclude, Bangladesh always believes in fraternity beyond ethno-religious affiliations and practiced secularism in daily life throughout the history. But at present, due to the rise of right-wing populist politics both at regional and global level and rise of fundamentalism, religious harmony in Bangladesh is also affected. However, comparatively, Bangladesh is doing better than many regional states and the country is destined to overcome the challenges in near future due to the pro-active role of the government in this regard.

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West Bengal Election: Implications for Indian Politics

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Polling officials collecting the Electronic Voting Machine (EVMs) and other necessary inputs required for the West Bengal Assembly Election, at a distribution centre, in Uluberia, West Bengal on April 05, 2021. Image source: Election Commission of India, Government of India

After a tumultuous eight phase election process, Trinamool congress has become successful to retain power for consecutive third terms amidst growing popularity of saffron tide. However, Mamata Banarjee’s Trinamool congress has successfully halted the tide at West Bengal frontier. The victory of TMC in the state testifies to “Bengal Exceptionalism” and is also a victory for Indian secularism.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) victory in the assembly election has far reaching repercussions for wider Indian politics. For one, it sends a resounding message to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that their dream of monolithic Hindu India is still far-fetched. While BJP was much enthusiastic and ardent to gain a victory in the election, as evidenced by Amit Shah’s intermittent visit to Bengal and the latter’s incendiary rhetoric and Prime Minister Modi’s several visit to state to canvass votes. Interestingly, the ubiquitous display of Narendra Modi’s posters led one commentator to sardonically quip whether NarendraModi is vying for chief minister position. This partly explains the importance BJP and Narendra Modi attached to West Bengal election.

Above all, this election was important for BJP to prove their regional appeal. BJP’s vision of “one state, one party” largely hinged on the victory in the Bengal. If BJP could win in Bengal, there had been possibility that other states would fall in order. This significance of Bengal election illuminates the importance that BJP attached to Bengal and their buoyant activities to seal the victory.

Bengal was long been known as bastion of ethnic politics rather than communal one. It was never been a fortress of all-India political parties. Even, in its heyday of all India politics, Indian National Congress (INC) couldn’t gain much favor in Bengal election as the politics in Bengal is driven by an appeal to “Bengali-ness” which other nationwide party lacks.

However, upheavals in Bengal politics had been unmistakable in recent times. Especially, the event of BJP’s significant performance in 2019 union elections led some observes to presage an ominous trend of Bengal politics unfolding. The BJP’s 40% share of vote from Bengal is largely an anomaly in the Bengal’s election history where all India political parties had hard time managing minuscule portion of the votes. The 2019 election result therefore doesn’t augur well for TMC in 2021.The defections of stalwart TMC leaders in favor of BJP exacerbated this grim predication and forbade an electoral mishap for TMC.

The detractors implicated Trinamool Congress for power abuse, extortion, misappropriation of welfare money and egregious Muslim appeasement. Especially, BJP seek to frame Trinamool Congress as anti-Hindu party. They had pointed to how Mamata Banarjee had benefitted Muslim clerics inordinately by providing them with benefits which their counterpart of Hindu religion was deprived of. Beside, “Bangladesh Card” had been recurrently employed to accuse the alleged lenient approach of TMC with regards to Bangladeshi migrants.

BJP capitalized on anti-incumbency resentment emanating from prolonged period of TMC role which had generated local level corrupted politician and scandals of misappropriated welfare schemes facilitated BJP rhetoric. Besides, BJP promised that the coordination with center government will be far easier if BJP gains state power. BJP rallied unemployed youth with the pledge of jobs had BJP

ascent to Bengal throne. Above all, BJP appealed to Hindu sentiments of the 60% majority Hindus of the state.

However, with the charismatic leadership of Mamata Banarjee and the promise of being rooted in Bengali soil and a proponent for peaceful communal relations, Mamata Banarjee’s TMC has been indomitable as manifested by resounding victory of Trinamool Congress.

The BJP’s promise of “Hindu Bengal” hadn’t materialized as West Bengal had long been a fortress of communal harmony, largely an aberration from all other Indian states. This communal harmony has been again bolstered by defeat of BJP in the assembly election.

The result of the election will largely reverberate across India with far-reaching consequences. Firstly, the victory of Trinamool Congress means that Modi’s vision of monolithic India isn’t viable in view regional peculiarities. Secondly, it safeguards the federal structure of India in face of increasing intrusion of central government. It also will restrain Narendra Modi’s unchecked centralization of the state. Thirdly, it will make Mamata Banarjee a spokesperson and central figure of anti-BJP movement in absence of vigorous congress presence. Fourthly, it puts an end to NarendraModi’s contentious CAA(Citizen Amendment Act) and other policies.

Lastly, this win of Mamata Banarjee has the possibility of catapulting her to the heft of an all India leader. Especially, in the absence of a BJP’s strong chief minister face, Mamata Banarjee was vying with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This has momentous implication. This will consolidate the popularity of TMC in other states also with the image of Mamata Banarjee and memory of implicitly defeating Narendra Modi serving as an accelerator of her all-India appeal.

Nevertheless, there is marked indications that the Bengal politics has irrevocably altered in the process of this election. While Bengal had long been the indisputable image of Indian secularism, the communal tendencies have made deep inroads in Bengal politics. BJP has surpassed all other local political parties and now only second to TMC. This trend is unnerving for secular Bengal as well as India. However, it can now rightly be articulated that saffron tide of communalism has been retarded. This victory of Mamata Banarjee has reverberation across India and can be termed as the victory of Indian secularism and federalism.

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Feasible Outcomes after Withdrawal of US Troops from Afghanistan

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According to US President Joe Biden’s announcement, the process of withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan has begun. On September 11, 2001, there was a militant attack in the United States. The United States went on a military operation in Afghanistan in the wake of that attack. Now all US troops are being withdrawn from Afghanistan before the 20th anniversary of the longest war in U.S. history. US President Biden commented that the goal of the US war in Afghanistan has been achieved. After the Taliban’s overthrow, the civilian Afghan government was established in Kabul with US support. The US administration now feels that the present Afghan government is capable of ensuring the security of its country.

The announcement during Trump’s tenure was that the troops would leave on May 1. Biden pulled it off in September. Biden’s Republican party has persuaded him against the rapid departure of troops. The reason behind Biden’s announcement of the new withdrawal date lies in repairing relations with NATO, which suffered under Trump. This transatlantic relationship was damaged by several of Trump’s statements. According to Trump, NATO members were not doing what they were supposed to pay for the alliance and wanted to approve Germany, Afghanistan’s top contributor after the US. When the withdrawal agreement was negotiated with the Taliban last year, the demands of NATO members, who are dependent on the US military for airlift support, were not considered sufficiently. Now it appears that NATO also announced the withdrawal of troops after Biden announced the withdrawal of troops to fix September 11 as the withdrawal date. This time change has given NATO members the opportunity to work to coordinate with the United States for their departure from Afghanistan. The Biden administration’s move could be seen in the context of efforts to bring US foreign policy back to multilateralism.

The United States also feels that rebuilding relations with NATO and other partners is very important. Because it will enable the US to stay in better position to face various global challenges like China’s rise and climate change. Already China has expressed concern over the decision to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan. China thinks foreign troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan in a responsible and orderly manner. According to them, this is necessary to ensure a smooth transition from Afghanistan as well as to prevent any terrorist group from taking advantage of the chaos. But the real problem lies for China as US officials point out that the United States now wants to focus on addressing other important challenges, including the threat from China, by shifting its focus from Afghanistan.

However, the long-term presence of US troops did not eventually defeat the Taliban. Afghan forces and the central government in Kabul could not be able to increase control over the entire country. After 20 years of war and thousands of deaths, US officials have acknowledged that the Taliban are at their strongest military level. We see that the attacks have increased dramatically in the last one year. The Taliban has taken over and has destabilized the position of the Americans in Afghanistan. The provincial capital, briefly occupied by Afghan troops, is regularly recaptured by rebels. US forces are leaving behind a deeply unpopular Afghan government that has not won the confidence of the people. Afghans blame Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s weak leadership for the Taliban’s resurgence. His reluctance to share power is hampering the initial move to map a post-war future, which is a barrier to peace.

The Taliban are indicating that they want to return to the role of the previous regime when American troops leave. Their desire is single authority. Unwilling to compromise and run the country, they want full authority after September. They are talking about establishing their own model of ‘Islamic rule’. But it won’t be that easy for them as they have full control of only 20 to 30 per cent of the districts of the country. The same is true of government forces. Both taliban and government forces hold power in the remaining 50 percent of the area. However if Taliban are able to take control over the whole country, women’s society and the media are most afraid of their past rule. Higher education institutions are often attacked by the Taliban. Millions of girls went to school while Americans were still there, who were forbidden by the Taliban to receive any kind of education. From under the protective shield of Americans, women became doctors, entrepreneurs, Parliamentarians. They will now be in danger. Similarly, Afghans who have struggled to make the country a more hospitable and socially tolerant place will be at risk. Meanwhile, about 17,000 Afghans from those communities are waiting to get U.S. visa.

It remains to be seen whether Afghanistan’s warring sides come to an agreement. As the US moves away, it is time for Afghans to lead the talks and agree on a permanent ceasefire and peace settlement. The coming months will tell how much faith the Taliban and the Afghan government can give to the war-weary Afghan people and show the leadership they need to rule. Whether the Taliban will undermine the rights of women and minorities returning to Kabul has become a question. It also remains to be seen whether the Taliban will allow al-Qaeda and IS militants to be active in Afghanistan if they return to power. There is a possibility of high levels of polarisation across the country due to insecurity among the groups. Stability can come only if the present government and Taliban in Afghanistan work together.

The United States is now more interested in shifting attention from Afghanistan and the Greater Middle East and looking to Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific region. The United States is reluctant to take responsibility for the negotiations even though it has announced the withdrawal of troops. Biden’s announcement does not have a roadmap for how the country will run after their departure. The United States wants Russia, China, Pakistan and India to participate in talks on Afghanistan. As a major power, it is dependent on who will be in governance in Afghanistan in the interest of Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and India. China and Russia are interested in Afghanistan for regional dominance and trade reasons, but India has a major interest in Afghanistan’s geopolitics in the conflict-making relations with Pakistan and the Kashmir crisis. The current deal will benefit the Taliban as well; It will also help Pakistan create a comfortable position in regional politics. Pakistan would like its backed Taliban government to be established in Kabul in its desire to consolidate its influence. But Pakistan also has a reason to worry. If the Taliban cannot bring peace to the country, the world society will put the responsibility on Pakistan. The refugee wave in Pakistan could rise another round if Afghanistan is newly disturbed. India, on the other hand, will want Pakistan’s influence-free Afghanistan. Again, in northern Afghanistan, where the Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek people live, they will not easily accept Taliban forces controlled by the Pashtun population. So there is a risk of long-term unrest. Afghanistan’s future situation depends a lot on what the role of regional powers will be after the withdrawal of US troops and how much the agreement of international community to control itself will be implemented there without being in Afghanistan.

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