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Kazakhstan’s Strategy 2050: A Clear Path Forward

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[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] W [/yt_dropcap]hat the future held the evening of Dec. 26, 1991 was far from certain. At 7:32 pm local time the flag of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics was lowered for the last time in front of the Kremlin. And with that, the sprawling empire of the Soviet Union ended and 15 former republics were on their own.

More than 125 million people, thousands of businesses, tens of thousands of workers and countless public services that had counted on the centralised government in Moscow for their very survival, were forced to start again, to build not only governments and economic systems but cultures and national identities. It was a daunting prospect fraught with challenge and uncertainty.

One of those former 15 republics set adrift, however, has met those challenges and exceeded expectations with an economy-first domestic policy that has embraced its historic ethnic and religious diversity to create a stable, growing economy and proud, dynamic citizenry.

Kazakhstan, a country with the land size of Western Europe but only 17 million people, has seized the opportunity to rebuild and, in just a short quarter-century, is on its way to being counted among the world’s most developed nations.

Harnessing its abundant oil and gas resources, the country has attracted more than $226 billion in foreign direct investments over the last decade alone and despite a slowdown during the recent global economic crisis, has enjoyed consistent GDP growth. Despite being home to more than 130 ethnicities and more than a dozen religions, Kazakhstan has enjoyed extraordinary peace and stability among its population.

Kazakhstan has also become a world leader in nuclear non-proliferation, having renounced the world’s fourth largest nuclear arsenal, and worked hard as a positive international force for peace and diplomatic solutions to international conflicts.

Kazakhstan was recently elected to a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, the first Central Asian nation to do so, and has hosted the peace talks involving all sides of the conflict in Syria this year. These successes, however, have not come by chance, but have been the results of long-term, strategic planning initiated by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

In 1997, the country adopted its Kazakhstan 2030 development programme, focusing on key sectors of stability and growth. And in 2012, just 20 years after achieving independence, the Kazakh President announced that the goals of the 2030 plan had been achieved 18 years ahead of schedule and that the country was laying out an even a more ambitious plan. The country announced its Kazakhstan 2050 programme designed to place Kazakhstan within the world’s 30 most-developed nations by mid-century.

“We adopted the Kazakhstan Strategy 2050 so that the people of Kazakhstan would firmly hold the helm of the future of the country in their hands,” Nazarbayev said in January 2014.

The strategy hopes to achieve its ambitious goal by focusing on seven priorities: economic pragmatism, comprehensive support for entrepreneurship, an improved social policy, a modern education system to produce a skilled workforce, a consistent foreign policy focus on domestic, regional and international security, a more developed democracy and a promotion of Kazakh patriotism.

While these priorities provide a roadmap, the country and the President realise that policy goals are not enough. Those policy positions must be based on broader, unifying principles.

“Strategic planning is a ‘number one’ rule in the 21st century, because no wind will be favourable unless a country does not know its route and destination harbour. Strategy Kazakhstan 2050, as a guiding beacon, allows us to solve our people’s everyday issues, while also keeping our priority aims in mind. This means that we should improve the life of our nation not in 30 or 50 years’ time, but do so every year,” said Nazarbayev.

Among the principles Nazarbayev has announced are a focus on evolutionary rather than revolutionary change. It is a realisation that change occurs over time and is achieved when all actions steer toward a clear objective.

The country also hopes to more deeply integrate into the regional and global economy, and, most importantly, continually strive to improve the lives of everyday Kazakhs.

The value of the Kazakhstan 2050 plan and its ambitious goal to be among the 30 most developed nations by mid-century is that it gives not only the Kazakh people but all members of the Kazakh government a clear objective. And they have responded.

The government has approved the “Plan of the Nation: 100 Concrete Steps to Implement Five Constitutional Reforms” to achieve specific institutional reforms. Among these are a consistent rule of law and more accountable government.

The country has also unveiled modernisation efforts across industries and sectors, including agriculture, transport, logistics, real estate, education, healthcare and social protection of the population, among others.

And in a significant step in its development as a democracy and as a developed nation, the President and Parliament have this year approved legislation decentralising presidential power and more proportionally distributing authority back to the legislature under a set of constitutional reforms.

“We are witnessing the beginning of a new, largely unclear, historical cycle. And it is impossible to occupy a place in an advanced group, preserving the old model of consciousness and thinking. Therefore, it is important to concentrate, go through changes, adapt to changing conditions and take the best of what the new era offers,” Nazarbayev wrote in a recent address to the nation.

It is that embrace and harnessing of the country’s unique history and population coupled with clear long-term objectives, such as those in Kazakhstan Strategy 2050, that will likely serve Kazakhstan as well over the next quarter-century as they have since the flag was lowered on the Soviet Union and a new nation was born just more than 25 years ago.

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Central Asia

Productive Employment Needed to Boost Growth in Tajikistan

MD Staff

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Tajikistan will need to create enough jobs to maximize productivity of the country’s increasing working-age population and spur economic growth, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

In its new Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018, ADB projects Tajikistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to reach 6% in 2018 and 6.5% in 2019. GDP growth for the country stood at 7.1% in 2017. ADO is ADB’s annual flagship economic publication.

“Tajikistan has a young population and the percentage of working-age people is projected to continue rising to 2030. In many countries, this has led to higher growth from a ‘demographic dividend’,” said Pradeep Srivastava, ADB Country Director for Tajikistan. “But for Tajikistan to benefit from such a dividend, it needs to undertake structural reforms to improve the investment climate, increase human capital and skills, and let entrepreneurship flourish to create productive jobs for the workforce.”

Despite Tajikistan’s economy growing at an average of about 7.2% from 1997 to 2016, the country is not creating enough productive jobs for its growing working-age population, which grew by 3% annually from 1991 to 2016. However, employment only rose by 0.7% annually over the same period. The report notes the need for structural reforms to improve the country’s business climate—for example, reducing and consolidating the number of inspection bodies, creating a healthier banking sector to facilitate lending, and streamlining procedures for issuing construction permits, paying taxes, and enforcing contracts.

The report also highlights the importance of strengthening local value chains and helping small and medium-sized enterprises improve their productivity and earnings to promote job creation. Assessing demand for various skills and using that information to improve job training can match workforce skills to market demand.

ADB’s growth forecasts for Tajikistan in 2018 comes on the back of expected fiscal tightening from the government to address the high ratio of public debt to GDP, which will likely constrain public investment, and a weak banking sector curbing private investment. The slight recovery in growth projection in 2019 is based on expected gains in the country’s manufacturing and mining sectors, as well as strengthened remittances.

Inflation is forecast to accelerate to 7.5% in 2018—reflecting higher liquidity spurred by potential sizable bank recapitalization, public salary and electricity tariff hikes, and modest somoni depreciation—before easing back to 7.0% in 2019. In 2017, inflation reached 6.7%.

ADB is celebrating 20 years of development partnership with Tajikistan in 2018. To date, ADB has approved around $1.6 billion in concessional loans, grants, and technical assistance to the country. ADB and Tajikistan’s development partnership, which began in 1998, has restored and built the country’s new transport and energy infrastructure, supported social development, expanded agricultural production, and improved regional cooperation and trade.

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Central Asia

ILO Reports Important Progress on Child Labour and Forced Labour in Uzbek Cotton Fields

MD Staff

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A new International Labour Organization report to the World Bank finds that the systematic use of child labour in Uzbekistan’s cotton harvest has come to an end, and that concrete measures to stop the use of forced labour have been taken.

The report Third-party monitoring of measures against child labour and forced labour during the 2017 cotton harvest in Uzbekistan is based on more than 3,000 unaccompanied and unannounced interviews with a representative sample of the country’s 2.6 million cotton pickers. It shows that the country is making significant reforms on fundamental labour rights in the cotton fields.

“The 2017 cotton harvest took place in the context of increased transparency and dialogue. This has encompassed all groups of civil society, including critical voices of individual activists. This is an encouraging sign for the future. However, there is still a lag between the sheer amount of new decrees and reforms being issued by the central government and the capacity to absorb and implement these changes at provincial and district levels,” says Beate Andrees, Chief of the ILO’s Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work Branch.

The ILO has been monitoring the cotton harvest for child labour since 2013. In 2015, it began monitoring the harvest for forced labour and child labour as part of an agreement with the World Bank.

Interviews carried out by the monitors took place in all provinces of the country and included cotton pickers and other groups which are directly or indirectly involved in the harvest such as local authorities, education and medical personnel. In addition, a telephone poll of 1,000 randomly selected persons was conducted. Before the harvest, the ILO experts organized training for some 6,300 people directly involved with the recruitment of cotton pickers.

The results confirm that the large majority of the 2.6 million cotton pickers engaged voluntarily in the annual harvest in 2017 and that there is a high level of awareness in the country about the unacceptability of both child and forced labour. The report confirms earlier findings that the systematic use of child labour in the cotton harvest has ended though continued vigilance is required to ensure that children are in school.

Instructions have been given by the Uzbek national authorities to local administrations to ensure that all recruitment of cotton pickers is on a voluntary basis. In September 2017, an order was given withdrawing certain risk groups (students, education and medical personnel) from the harvest at its early stage.

Moreover, cotton pickers’ wages have been increased in line with recommendations by the ILO and the World Bank. The ILO recommends that the government continues to increase wages and also addresses working conditions more broadly to further attract voluntary pickers.

Last September, Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev spoke before the United Nations General Assembly in New York where he pledged to end forced labour in his country and underscored his government’s engagement with the ILO. In November 2017, at the Global Conference on the Sustained Eradication of Child Labour in Argentina, Uzbekistan also pledged to engage with independent civil society groups on the issue.

The ILO Third-Party Monitoring (TPM) project in Uzbekistan will now focus on the remaining challenges, particularly the need for further awareness raising and capacity building, which varies between provinces and districts. It will ensure that all those involved in recruitment will have the information and tools needed to ensure that cotton pickers are engaged in conformity with international labour standards.

The monitoring and results from a pilot project in the area of South Karkalpakstan also show that cotton picking economically empowers women in rural areas. The cotton harvest provides many women with a unique opportunity to earn an extra cash income which they control and can use to improve the situation of their families.

The ILO TPM Project is funded by a multi-donor trust fund with major contributions by the European Union, United States and Switzerland.

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Central Asia

Kazakhstan Launches Online Platform for Monitoring and Reporting Greenhouse Gases

MD Staff

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An online platform for monitoring, reporting and verifying emission sources and greenhouse gases (GHG) was officially launched today by the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the World Bank.

The platform is an essential element of the National Emissions Trading System of Kazakhstan, which was launched in 2013 as the country’s main instrument to regulate domestic CO2 emissions and to drive the development of low-carbon technologies. Today, the National Emissions Trading System of Kazakhstan covers all major companies in the energy, oil and gas sectors, mining, metallurgical, chemical and processing industries.

Since 2014, the World Bank Trust Fund Partnership for Market Readiness has provided technical assistance to Kazakhstan in supporting the implementation of the National Emissions Trading System of Kazakhstan and related climate change mitigation policies.

“Kazakhstan’s emissions trading system is the first of its kind in the Central Asia region,” said Ato Brown, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan. “With support from the Partnership for Market Readiness, the country has made a great effort to develop policy options for mid- and long-term emissions pathways and to develop an action plan on GHG emissions reductions by 2030. The World Bank will continue to support the Government during the crucial stages of policy implementation.”

The platform enables Kazakhstan’s major emitters to transmit and record data on GHGs emissions, as well as trade online. The National Allocation Plan, adopted in January 2018, sets an emission cap for 129 companies for the period 2018-2020. Per the national allocation plan, quotas have been allocated until 2020.

“The electronic platform undoubtedly proves the evolution of the Kazakhstan emission control system, which will allow the monitoring, reporting and verification system to be upgraded to a much higher level,” said Sergei Tsoy, Deputy General Director of JSC Zhasyl Damu.

GHG data is confirmed by accredited bodies for verification and validation and transferred to the Cadastre using an electronic digital signature. To date, there are seven verification companies accredited in Kazakhstan, with five more in the process of accreditation.

The platform was developed by JSC Zhasyl Damu with the support of France’s Technical Center on Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases. The system is administered by JSC Zhasyl-Damu, while the beneficiaries are the Climate Change Department and the Committee for Environmental Regulation and Control of the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Background

Kazakhstan is one of the largest emitters of GHG in Europe and Central Asia with total annual national emissions of 300.9 MtCO2e in 2015. The energy sector accounts for 82% of total GHG emissions, followed by agriculture (9.6%) and industrial processes (6.4%). More than 80% of produced electricity in Kazakhstan is coal-fired, followed by natural gas (7%) and hydro power (8%).

Kazakhstan proposed as its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) an economy-wide reduction of GHG emissions of 15% from 1990 emissions levels by 2030. Kazakhstan ratified the Paris Agreement in November 2016 and committed itself to the fulfilment of the proposed target as its first INDC. The objective will contribute to sustainable economic development as well as to the achievement of the long-term global goal of keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius. 

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