Authors: Wang Li &Bokang Malefane Theoduld Ramonono
[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] A [/yt_dropcap]lthough it is a routine practice for Chinese Foreign Minister to make a visit to Africa at the beginning of each year since 1990, it is quite rare for Chinese FM to visit the African states twice in a span of four months (2017).
Following his first visit to five states of Africa— Madagascar, Zambia, Tanzania, Congo and Nigeria scheduled for January 7-12, FM Wang Yi made his second trip to Africa during May 19-23, in which he visited Mauritania, Cape Verde, Mali and Côte d’Ivoire. Given the aforementioned, it is important to delve into the strategic thinking of the Chinese policy-makers in terms of what reasons are behind this a typical occurrence? Undoubtedly, 2017 marks a seminal year for the implementation of the outcomes acceded to at the Johannesburg summit held in 2016, as China plans to promote its comprehensive ties with Africa en bloc to proximate a strategic partnership. As Chinese official statements have reiterated, the primary purpose of FM Wang Yi’s visits to Africa twice in a 4-month period are the attainment of consensus with the leaders of African countries in a view of further advancing a long-term partnership between China and Africa.
Needless to say, China began to forge its relationship with Africa in the 1960s with the highly acclaimed diplomatic debut visit by Premier Zhou En-lai between 1963 and 1964. It was during his safari in Africa that Premier Zhou laid down the key tenets of China’s aid programs to Africa. As a favorable return, the majority of newly-independent African states not only extended their recognition to the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate government of China, but also demonstrated unwavering endorsement of Beijing’s ascension as a permanent occupant of a seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). With its burgeoning power, the East Asian giant has become increasingly proactive in its attempts to strengthen its strategic mutual relations with African states.
First is the strategic consideration. Foreign Minister’s aimed to induce African governments to assume an integral part in the Belt & Road initiative proposed during President Xi Jin-ping’s visit to Kazakhstan in 2013. Accordingly, the up-grade and subsequent transformation of China-African cooperation is not only inevitable but essential. Under the proposals set forth at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation’s (FOCAC) summit in Johannesburg held in 2016, the China-Africa win-win cooperation has illustrated “three new changes”. Primarily, the transformation from government-led cooperation to the market oriented one, and an upgrade from general commodity trade to capacity cooperation and processing trade. Lastly, the essence of their cooperation shifted from accustomed project contracts to a seismic expansion of investment and construction. Even though a gloomy world economy has featured sluggish growth in global trade, the capacity of the China-Africa cooperation and the novel alignment of their industrial policies have grown robust resulting in a rapid growth with a plethora of Chinese enterprises seeking to invest and establish business ventures in African markets. In light of this line of reasoning, Wang Yi visited the resource-rich countries of Congo and Nigeria, and the potential markets such as Madagascar and Mauritania. Meanwhile, he toured Zambia and Tanzania, countries regarded as well-established key regional players and strategic partners of China in Africa, respectively. Due to this, on May 22 FM Wang Yi stated that China’s cooperation with Africa would benefit the local people. Considering the dimensions of the Belt & Road Initiative beyond Chinese geographical scope, it is of strategic significance for China to work with African leaders to be involved in the “Belt & Road Initiative”. At a recent Forum of the Belt & Road Initiative, the President of China expressed that no matter where you are from, as long as you truly endorsed this concept, you are welcome to be a part of the grand cooperation.
Secondly, China has specific approach to its interaction with Africa in the context of globalization. Despite an unpredictable international situation and world economy, China took action to keep its words and comprehensively implement the summit’s outcome so as to bring more benefits to the African and Chinese societies at an early date. For example, agreements signed in various fields between China and Africa valued at over U.S.$ 50 billion between December 2015 and July 2016. No doubt, most African states have been eager to alleviate themselves from significant natural resource dependency. The acceleration of the development of African national industries would promote their production capacity in order to achieve their economic independence, and further solidify China’s reputation as the most suitable and reliable country to offer the expansive assistances. Thus far, Chinese labor has been instrumental in the construction of numerous symbolic infrastructure projects, including but not limited to the newly-completed rail-line connecting the capital of Kenya (Nairobi) to its coastal city and port hub of Mombasa, and the highly anticipated network of Chinese-built railroads in East Africa. To that end, the Chinese leadership’s eagerness to upgrade the bilateral relations with Africa in terms of comprehensive package of aid is evident in the construction of over 3200 miles railroad and high-speed highway in the continent as a whole, inclusive of more than 200 schools of all kinds, 114 hospitals and 43 medical detachments in 42 countries. In addition, China’s peacekeeping efforts on the African continent have range from non-combat peacekeepers in medical and engineering roles to the deployment of troops in Sudan. More significant is that China put forward a proposal of “ten-project cooperation” at the G-20 summit in 2016 when it was held in Hangzhou, China. On the whole, China has conscientiously paid more attention and made tremendous efforts to promote its image vis-a-vis the egregious history of former European exploits on the African continent.
Thirdly, Beijing actively employs its conventional diplomatic strategy to isolate Taiwan out of critical international deliberations under the ‘One China Policy’. Although China has established formal relations with 48 out of 54 African states, the leaders in Beijing are still angered by the “independent rhetoric” made by the current leaders of the Taiwan ruling party, in particular their possible efforts to attend international organizations or forums with aim of representing Taiwan as an independent state. It undergoes extraordinary naming contortions merely to take part in institutions and events such as the Olympic Games, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and most recently, the government’s decision to send a delegation to the annual meeting of the World Health Assembly of which Taiwan is not recognized as a member.
Now the questions arise how Chinese leaders have so steadily moved toward the directions mentioned above. In summation, the Chinese strategy can be clarified into three points. First, the Chinese leadership avowedly believes that both China and Africa en bloc had a common past in which the two partners were humiliated by European powers. In the post-Cold War era, they share a desire to develop their economies, and maintain peace and stability. In particular, Chinese and African leaders have reiterated the common position of the principles of equality, mutual benefit and mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty (non-intervention). Second, there is the relatively mutual trust in strategic partnership. Due to China’s recent economic growth and political flexibility, China has expressed its will to extend aid to African countries which are eager to get rid of their poverty and dependence on exclusive resources export. This is exactly what the majority of African states have beseeched of China in order to accomplish their political independence and economic sufficiency. Finally, many Chinese are of the firm belief that over the previous decades, Africa and China have helped each other in numerous ways. Certainly, China provided limited but essential aid to assist in the attainment of African self-independence and in return these African partners have endorsed China’s position in international affairs.
In conclusion, China has high expectations for Africa as the latter has an immense reservoir of resources to spur its envisioned growth and China’s economic growth. As a rising power, China’s work in conjunction with Africa towards the creation a more just and impartial world order places the East Asian giant in a stronger position to provide more substantial aid to Africa under a win-win cooperation. As expressed at the G-20 FM meeting in Bonn on February 16 of this year, Chinese high ranking official reconfirmed that China would carry on enhancing strategic relationship with Africa. As always, China would abide by the key tenet which aims to develop the local, regional and international economics in light of “Africa’s initiative, Africa’s consent and Africa’s first”. Due to this, China’s search for strategic partners in Africa is an indispensable part of Beijing’s global strategic thinking.
How China is helping Iran skirt US sanctions
Shortly after the Trump administration reimposed sweeping sanctions on Iran, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said eight countries, most notable China, would be exempted from the draconian sanctions on buying Iranian crude oil.
Shortly after the Trump administration reimposed sweeping sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an important announcement. It was a calculated move to avoid a major embarrassment. The hawks in the power corridors of Washington had anticipated the backlash of sanctions on US foreign policy with many global powers rebuffing Trump’s foolhardy move.
Pompeo said eight countries would be exempted from the draconian sanctions on buying Iranian crude oil due to special circumstances. The countries included China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey.
Many of these countries had quite clearly indicated that they would not be cutting oil imports from Iran under the US pressure, most importantly China, Turkey, and India – three of Iran’s largest oil customers.
While India has its own strategic interests in maintaining good relations with Tehran, for instance, the Chabahar port project in Sistan-Baluchistan, Turkey’s relations with Washington have hit a new low following sanctions and trade tariffs imposed by the US.
China, which has emerged as a viable counterweight to US hegemony in the world and a protagonist of new international economic policy, has unambiguously reaffirmed its commitment to keep alive the Iran nuclear deal and stand by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
On November 5, when the petroleum-related sanctions came into effect, Chinese foreign ministry said it will continue to “hold a fair, objective and responsible attitude” and “resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights”, while reiterating its opposition to the unilateral US sanctions.
“China feels sorry for the US’ decision and we noticed that the international world as a whole opposes the practice of such unilateral sanctions,” foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said at a press briefing.
She said Iran has been seriously fulfilling its obligations under the JCPOA and its efforts have been recognized by the International Atomic Energy Agency dozen times. She also affirmed that China will firmly safeguard its lawful rights while continuing to adhere to JCPOA and urged relevant parties to stand on the “right side of history”.
China has maintained that implementing the Iranian nuclear deal is akin to safeguarding the authority of UN Security Council, basic norms of international law, international non-proliferation treaty and peace and stability in the Middle East.
As one of the remaining signatories of the JCPOA, along with European Union countries who are exploring options to circumvent the US sanctions, Beijing wants to keep the deal alive. China, believe experts, is in a better position compared to other Asian countries as it is not subservient to US interests and is already embroiled in a bitter trade war with Washington.
For all parties of the JCPOA, Iranian crude oil is the main commodity of interest, particularly for Beijing. In 2017, one-third of Iran’s oil was supplied to China, which underlines the significance of oil trade between the two countries. China’s commitment to continue importing oil from Iran is very likely to deal a body blow to US ploy of reducing Iranian oil imports to zero and ‘starving’ the Iranian nation.
Hu Xijin, chief editor of the influential Chinese daily Global Times, told Tehran Times that there was no possibility of Washington reducing the Iranian oil exports to zero, “because Washington lacks righteousness to do so, therefore it can’t have the full support of the international community”.
To continue oil trade in different currencies other than dollar, Iran has been in talks with key allies, including China. On September 29, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Tehran would circumvent sanctions by conducting trade in all currencies to avoid using the US dollar. “You can use your own currency. Sell stuff in your own currency, buy stuff in the other country’s currency, and at the end of a specific period, balance it out in a non-dollar currency. It’s quite possible and may even be profitable,”
China, which is the largest oil importer in the world with around nine million barrels imports every day, has been making concerted efforts to reshape the global oil market with increased usage of its currency in oil trading. If Chinese currency manages to replace the US dollar, it will be a masterstroke.
US has been rendered friendless and isolated in its quest to tear up the Iran deal and force countries to cut oil imports from Iran. European Union has already refused to back down on the Iran deal, exploring ways to develop payment channels to facilitate payments related to Iran’s exports. The goal, according to a statement issued by EU, “is to protect the freedom of other economic operators to pursue legitimate business with Iran”.
Beijing has expressed its full support to the EU’s proposal to set up a “special payments system” to facilitate trade with Iran and safeguard the Iranian nuclear deal, which experts believe will significantly reduce reliance on the US dollar in the global oil trade. That will be a game-changer.
First published in our partner MNA
The Implication of China’s Diplomacy in APEC and ASEAN
It is truly unusual that the Chinese President Xi Jinping and its Premier Li Keqiang are visiting the same area during nearly the same time: Xi’s visit to APEC from15th to 21st November and Li’s visit to ASEAN on 15th November. Yet, if we look into China’s foreign policy towards this area over the past years since President Xi took power, it is not difficult to understand both Xi’s and Li’s official visits to the “larger Pacific” and the meaning beyond.
As we know, President Xi has reiterated that the Pacific is large enough for the countries involved to share the prosperity with each other. In order to achieve the inclusive rather than exclusive benefits for all, China’s diplomacy aims to reject any kind of unilateralism, trade protectionism and anti-globalization. Given this, Xi’s at APEC and Li’s at AEASN is defined as a signal of China’s diplomacy to further reform and bold openness.
As a rising great country, China is surely eager to expand its investment and trade with the south Pacific area, and Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the first country visited by Chinese president. What is more, PNG joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) early 2018 and then became the first state of Pacific islands to sign the MoU on “The Belt and Road Initiative” construction. As the theme “Harnessing Inclusive Opportunities, Embracing the Digital Future,” the APEC summit will focus on Regional economic integration, digital economy, connectivity, sustainable and inclusive growth and so forth.
Also during Premier Li’s visit to the ASEAN, he highlighted the necessity of the collaboration and mutual benefit among the countries involved on the 21st China-ASEAN leaders meeting. This is also the 21st ASEAN Plus Three Summit (10+3) and the 13th East Asia Summit (EAS).
Quite understandable, since the 1960s, the center of world economy has shifted from North Atlantic to Asia-Pacific, its dynamic growth in the region create countless jobs and push the development of world economy. This is the reason that Asia-Pacific region has the most trade agreements and the most complicated economic architecture around world. APEC and ASEAN, as two institutions that possess most member states, are the very pillars of the tumbledown regional economic architecture. APEC was launched by Australia and later included 21 member states in the region, amongst are United States, China, Japan, the economic giant three of the world economy. ASEAN is an institution that consist of ten small and middle states. Though they are not strong enough to meet the challenges from the power politics alone, ASEAN is a core force that firmly facilitate the economic integration of the whole region of East Asia and the Pacific. No matter what the way they embrace, they are the de facto basic regionalism of Asia-Pacific. The withdrawing of United States from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and hard-achieved Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) once brought the regional economic architecture a fig leave and strengthened the impact of APEC and ASEAN.
As a result, the two visits of Chinese top leaders to the same region at the same time definitely attract worldwide attention, because they not only represent China’s recent diplomatic focus but also mark the fact that Asia-Pacific region has become one of the vital fields where China’s diplomacy will be actively conducting in terms of the Belt and Road Initiative, and carry on the good-neighbor policy. Since China has argued for creating a peaceful development milieu, to enhance economic transformation and upgrading oversea markets and partners in Asia-Pacific region.
Consider these facets, China, as the second largest economy, aims to promote its well-articulated stance on multilateralism and inclusiveness and globalization. As both President Xi and Premier Li have strongly said that China is ready to work with Pacific island countries to endeavor together and sail for a better future for bilateral relations. For the sake of that goal, China always believes that as long as all the countries involved have firm confidence in each other’s development, cooperation and the future of East Asia, and work closely together and forge ahead, all sides would achieve more and reach a higher level in the next 15 years.
For sure, China belongs to the part of a larger Asia-Pacific family, and the Chinese government defines its goal as the shared prosperity of this region. Therefore, China will continue to work hard and constructively to promote the overall development of impoverished but promising Pacific island countries under the Belt and Road Initiative.
An uncertain step in moving China-Japan relations
Authors: Meshach Ampwera & Luo Xinghuan
On October 26, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and praised that both China and Japan have pledged to strengthen bilateral ties amid continuous efforts made by the two nations. Xi said, “Bilateral relations have returned to the right track and gained positive momentum, which is something the two sides should cherish.” As the two largest economies in Asia, China and Japan are also the vital players in Asian security and the global development.
In addition, since this is the first official visit to China by a Japanese PM in a seven-year “Cold Peace” period, it is widely assumed that Abe’s visit symbolizes the resumption of high-level visits and will be followed by an increasing rapprochement between China and Japan. True, the leaders of the two economic giants witnessed a wide range of agreements, including a 30 billion US dollar worth of currency swap pact, the establishment of a maritime and air liaison mechanism, and enhancing people-to-people exchanges.
Yet, three factors have to be considered seriously in looking into Japanese foreign policy given the current changing geopolitical landscape regionally and globally. First, Japan has still regarded itself as a “defeated” state during the WWII. Since then, Japan’s postwar posture has frequently described as a new pacifism; yet in fact it is considerably more complex. As Henry Kissinger put it: “Japan had acquiesced in the U.S. predominance and followed the strategic landscape and the imperatives of Japan’s survival and long-term success.” This means that the governing elites in Tokyo used to hold the constitution drafted by U.S. occupying authorities with its stringent prohibition on military action, and adapted to their long-term strategic purposes. As a result, Japan was transformed from the pacific aspects of the postwar order (that prohibited military action) into a nation that has focused on other key elements of national strategy, particularly using economic leverage regionally and globally, though not uncontroversial.
Second, in a recently-released paper written by the former US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, he maintained that “Japan is a close ally of the U.S. and a rising military power, too, because of legal and constitutional changes of great significance championed by Prime Minister Abe.” In practice, the Japanese administration has engineered an expansion to enable its military to operate regionally and even globally in response to the rise of China, violent extremist activity in Asia, and the alleged North Korean belligerence.
Actually in 2013, Japanese Government White Paper revealed a desire to become a “normal country” with an active alliance policy. In a searching for a new role in the Asia-pacific region, Japan aims to act as an “anchor” of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) concluded in 2018 after the withdrawal of the United States. Now it involves 11 countries and representing 13.4% of global GDP ($ 13.5tri.). As the largest economy of the CPTPP, Japan has been active in moving it forward. Early this year when the British government stated it is exploring becoming a member of the CPTPP to stimulate exports after Brexit in 2019, Abe stated that the United Kingdom would be welcomed to join the partnership. It is said that even the U.S. reconsiders possibly rejoining the CPTPP if it were a “substantially new deal” for the United States.
Japan’s ardent involvement into the US-led strategy in Asia has also been endorsed to expand steadily as a normal power regionally and globally. For example, the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) is the result of the joint declaration issued by the India and Japan in 2016. Although it is premised on four pillars of development and cooperation, it is self-evident that the AAGC reflects a growing special “strategic and global partnership between India and Japan” in which both sides have viewed China’s growing, pragmatic and successful presence in Africa as a menace. There is no question that AAGC is a well-crafted vision and agenda of both India and Japan, linking with their own development priorities. But with increasing pressure from Washington and Brussels, Japan and India are in effect driven by the option for the AAGC to rebalance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
From the inception of the BRI, they have more than ever before been concerned with being isolated in Africa by Beijing’s initiative. But, as Ampwera Meshach, a researcher at Jilin University put it, “Africa is on the growth trend and offers potential markets and raw materials. For this reason, Africa largely needs pragmatic and scientific, technological and development- oriented initiatives and these are clearly reflected in China’s BRI.” In light of this, the AAGC does neither reflect a novel nor pragmatic approach on how it fits within the African agenda. Instead, AAGC’s foundational pillars seem more inclined to the Western cooperation approaches that have for decades not been translated into development.
Controversially, two days before Abe’s visit to Beijing, Japan had decided to scrap official development assistance (ODA) to China, which is a program where Japan provides aids to developing countries starting back in 1954. Even though some people argue that Japan’s ODA is reasonably cancelled because China’s GDP is even 2.5 times larger than that of Japan, yet, it is necessary for Chinese to be aware of the reality that Japan is a longstanding ally of the United States. As Japan has long been an economic power, its impressive military capabilities would not be confined to a strict policy of territorial defense—no projection of Japanese power or the U.S.-Japan alliance to the region as a whole.
It is during the Abe’s administration which has recognized an environment of growing Chinese assertiveness, violent extremist activity in Asia, and North Korean hostility, and therefore, Japan has eagerly participated in Asian security, including training and exercising with other nations, beyond a purely passive, home-island defense role. This makes it an increasingly important player serving the US strategy in Asia but challenging the rise of China globally.
It is true that Abe tweeted about the trip — while recognizing the challenges in moving bilateral relations forward, he said that he would still work to “push Sino-Japan relations to the next level”. Given the two countries’ economic links, it is only understandable that there is a need for the two sides to come closer. Moreover, Japanese businesses has been an extremely active force behind the government’s shift of attitude on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Yet, all in all, we should never ignore that Japan’s ambitious foreign policy has gone beyond the economic goal.
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