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Economic Outlook for Latin America: Uncertainty and Risks but with Opportunities

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[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] W [/yt_dropcap]hile the economic performance of Latin America is expected to be better this year and next compared to 2016, uncertainties and risks could get in the way of the opportunities, leaders from government, finance and international organizations concluded in a session on the economic outlook for the region at the 2017 World Economic Forum on Latin America.

“The region is pulling out of recession,” said David A. Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington DC. “The region has the chance to make important strides.” He pointed out that the global context is favourable, with growth momentum picking up on the back of a rise in industrial production around the world. “It’s time for the region to make the most of an opportunity.” Growth in the region could run to 2.5-2.7% in the short term, he added.

“The region is going to grow after two years of contraction,” Alicia Bárcena Ibarra, Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), agreed. “We have curbed inflation.” But, she cautioned, “the region faces a very uncertain context. What the region hasn’t been able to underpin enough is its investments.” Latin America is difficult to analyse as a whole because of the different situations in each country, but “structural gaps persist that are very complex”. Countries should assess their fiscal space carefully, she advised, noting that more than 14 countries in the region have already undergone tax reforms that have offset in part the drop in non-tax revenue.

“We see upside and downside risks,” Lipton remarked. The uncertainties around the new US administration and its policy decisions, especially in trade, are a concern. Latin American countries would do well to build greater links among themselves, increase intra-regional trade and boost links with other regions and emerging markets, he said.

The word that best describes the outlook for Mexico is “uncertainty”, Guillermo Ortiz, Chairman, BTG Pactual Latin America at Banco BTG Pactual SA, concurred. The rhetoric during the US election was “highly disruptive” for Mexico, he observed. But “I believe we are in a much better situation – those in the US who are in charge of the bilateral agenda are experienced people who know the country very well.”

“The main risk for Panama and the region is the lack of certainties,” Dulcidio De La Guardia, Minister of Economy and Finance of Panama, said. He too argued that the rhetoric of the US presidential campaign does not reflect what is really happening. “We have seen far more reasonable steps taken than what we heard.”

In Brazil, Ortiz reckoned, “something very significant is happening”. The country is exiting its worst recession and the new leadership is poised to deliver a stabilized economy. “The most important issue is to ensure the stability of public finances. There is now a cap in total spending and they are focusing on social security. Inflation is dropping significantly. Brazil will have lower inflation than Mexico. I can’t remember when that last happened. Brazil will show modest growth this year but next year might surprise us with far higher growth.”

Argentina is another turnaround tale in Latin America. “We inherited enormous problems,” Nicolas Dujovne, Minister of the Treasury of Argentina, acknowledged. But since he came into office in 2015, President Mauricio Macri has implemented reform policies that have yielded significant results. Its fiscal consolidation plans have been deliberate. “Fiscal gradualism is not a slogan to procrastinate in fiscal terms,” Dujovne explained. “It is a strategy.” The administration will be focusing on tax reform after upcoming mid-term elections. “This government was confronted with a very difficult situation and has taken the right approach,” Lipton observed. “It is off to a good start and headed in the right direction.”

Asked about corruption across the region, Ortiz predicted that the problem would be “the defining issue” of the presidential elections in Mexico next year. “Corruption is clearly a tax paid by the poor but you have to be certain that, when cleaning your house, you are not knocking it down,” De La Guardia warned. “The fight against corruption hasn’t gone too far,” Dujovne asserted. “Any level of corruption affects investment and the credibility of a country.” “We live in a culture of privileges. But we need to install a culture of shared prosperity – or else we won’t be able to move ahead,” Bárcena concluded.

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Preparing teachers for the future we want

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At its annual meeting in Montego Bay, Jamaica, from 5-9 November, the International Task Force on Teachers for Education 2030 adopted a declaration focused on ensuring that teacher issues stay at the centre of the global education agenda.

Through this declaration, the Teacher Task Force reinforces its vision that at the heart of the right to education is a highly valued, qualified, and well-trained teaching profession. It therefore recommends that:

International partners should intensify efforts to develop robust definitions and classifications of qualified and trained teachers and strengthen cooperation and reporting mechanisms to ensure full monitoring of Sustainable Development Goal target 4c.

Governments should ensure adequate financing for all public goods, including the teacher workforce, and this should be achieved primarily through domestic resource mobilization based on socially just fiscal policies, rigorous measures against corruption and illegal financial flows, efficient and effective teacher policies and deployment practices, developed with the full involvement of teachers and their organisations, and continued focus on external resource mobilization to complement domestic resources for countries.

Moreover, the dual focus of the Education 2030 agenda on equity and learning puts teachers at the heart of policy responses that should foster equal participation and learning globally. Teachers can be an impactful equalizing force to overcome unequal life chances from birth. The massive recruitment of new teachers, particularly in least develop countries, with little or no training is a real cause for concern.

The Teacher Task Force also expressed its concern over the fact that teacher education has not kept pace with preparing new teachers to face the rapid changes in globalization, migration, demographic change, and technological advances that will mark the future of education.

Furthermore, teacher education in this increasing complex world must be forward-looking and prepare teachers who are continuous learners themselves. It must enable teachers to think about the kind of education that is meaningful and relevant to young people’s needs in the different 21st century’s learning environment.

The Teacher Task Force acknowledges the ever-growing importance of Information and Communication Technologies in education. However, technology should be treated as a supportive tool for teachers and not a replacement. Teacher education should therefore empower teachers to use technologies to support learning within a holistic and human-centred educational framework.

The Teacher Task Force also called attention to the fact that teacher education needs to be seen as career-long education and special attention should be paid to the nature of teachers’ professional development, competency frameworks, curriculum development and professional learning communities/communities of practice. As teaching is a knowledge-based profession, teachers and trainers should be supported to continually update their knowledge base.

Through this declaration, the Teacher Task Force advocates for a teacher education that allows teachers to prepare learners to manage change and to be able to shape a just and equitable future, leaving no one behind.

This declaration reflects UNESCO’s belief that the right to education cannot be fulfilled without trained and qualified teachers. Teachers are one of the most influential factors to the improvement of learning outcomes and UNESCO has for long been an advocate of better training for teachers to ensure inclusive and quality education for all.

UNESCO, which is one of the founding members of the International Task Force on Teachers for Education 2030, has supported its work since its creation in 2008 and hosts the Teacher Task Force Secretariat.

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ADB to Partner on New $4 Million Facility to Help Asia Meet Climate Commitments

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today announced the launch of the Article 6 Support Facility, a $4 million initiative to help developing member countries (DMCs) in Asia and the Pacific combat climate change through a key provision of the Paris Agreement.

Funded by ADB, the Government of Germany, and the Swedish Energy Agency, the facility will provide technical, capacity building, and policy development support to help the DMCs meet Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, in which countries have voluntarily committed to lower their carbon emissions.

The ultimate goal of the Article 6 Support Facility is for DMCs to achieve critical expertise on Article 6, draw lessons from pilot activities, and enhance their preparedness for participation in carbon markets beyond 2020, while contributing to international negotiations.

The Paris Agreement will go into effect on 1 January, 2020 and aims to limit the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C.

“This new facility will play an important role in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and we are delighted to be establishing it at this very critical time,” says ADB Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department Director General Mr. Woochong Um.

“Climate change is a challenge that must be met on a global level and we are confident that this facility will help deliver the critical practical experience, innovation, and learning necessary for our developing member countries to meet their emissions targets.”

The facility is another step by ADB toward meeting its commitment to address climate change, a core part of its long-term strategy, Strategy 2030. The strategy commits ADB to scaling up support to address climate change, climate and disaster risks, and environmental degradation as one of seven operational priorities.

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Climate technology collaboration makes an impact

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In its Five Year Progress Report, the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) has announced that 137 technology solutions have been delivered or are under way in 79 countries. Two thousand five hundred people have been trained and over 10 million tonnes of CO₂eq are expected to be reduced per year with the completion of mitigation-related projects.

The CTCN promotes the accelerated development and transfer of climate technologies for energy-efficient, low-carbon and climate-resilient development. It is the implementation arm of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Technology Mechanism and is hosted and managed by UN Environment and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).

With an original investment of US$40m, the CTCN’s technical assistance has leveraged US$670m in anticipated funding for developing countries’ technology implementation.

“Accelerating the deployment of clean and green technologies is crucial for realizing the aims of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Over the past five years, the CTCN has served as a powerful example of a UNFCCC mechanism connecting developing countries to the innovative and relevant technologies they seek,” said Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC.

“Over the last five years, the CTCN has provided targeted interventions to help countries meet their national climate change commitments – through its technology assistance, capacity building programmes and knowledge sharing initiatives. UNIDO is proud to support the Centre in its climate technology transfer mission,” said LI Yong, Director General of UNIDO.

The country-driven nature of the CTCN, with 160 National Designated Entities identifying climate technology needs based on goals set forth in Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans, is closely aligned with the Paris Agreement.

“Our interventions identify the best possible technology options for climate action, and support policy development and resource mobilization to enhance their uptake. Experience from the last five years has taught us that pairing technology expertise with local knowledge is essential, scalability is important and that relationships matter,” emphasized Jukka Uosukainen, Director of the CTCN.

The Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) utilizes the expertise of a global network of over 460 civil society, finance, private sector, and research institutions, to deliver technical assistance and capacity building at the request of developing countries.

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