Connect with us

Energy

Strong Headwinds for Oil Ahead

Osama Rizvi

Published

on

The oil markets have just received a long awaited yet unexpected jolt. “No one is yawning now”, as an article in New York Times puts it. The prices plunged 8pc in two days as the report from EIA department showed an inventory build-up of 8.2 million barrels rendering the total inventory at 528 million barrels, the highest in history. Before we move on there are few things to consider making sense of what is happening in the oil markets of-late. How did we get here?

It all started from the Vienna oil deal which is still holding on, reporting a compliance rate of almost 90%. As the deal started showing some results the global oil prices, more in anticipation and less than the change in fundamentals, started to rally up. And as this happened the US shale players that were facing financial issues started to come back on the fields with their derricks. The US production now started to climb and the markets were stalled resulting from an offsetting effect. The news and articles mostly swung between the opinions of where the oil prices may go to the prospects of Shale boom. But the recent development has changed it all.

Last week in Houston at CERA “efficiency was the buzzword”. But there was something else as well. An admonition and a warning that Saudi Arabia will not allow “free-riders” to take advantage of the production cuts. And also that the world should not think that we are going to extend the oil deal another 6 months. There is a very interesting thing to note here. Few months back when the prices were down and the air was thick with the hope of a deal being struck, it was Saudi Arabia that was leading by not only words but also by example. As the deal was penned down KSA cut more than that it promised. Not only this it took the initiative and appeased the growing concerns of the world regarding the agreement reached by OPEC and NOPEC countries. Bringing Russia to the table was a great feat, indeed.

But, as I have noted in my recent articles, the hidden ineffectiveness of the deal that was to come to the surface in case the prices didn’t show any improvement (which just happened), there was to be dissent coming from different members of the Vienna deal, not surprisingly it came from the country that made the deal eventuate: KSA. Mr. Khalid Al-Falih’s remarks appertaining to the extension of the agreement are symptomatic of the first spark of ‘doubt’ of questioning the effectiveness and the purpose of the deal itself. If they continue the production cuts then, evidently, the prices are going to rise. Consequently and obviously this will be followed by an increase in production by the Shale producers. And we after making merry-go-rounds come to the same point. Mr. Harold Hamm has said that we should not try to “kill” the oil signaling towards the growth in shale. But who is going to stop when the prices go up?

Yes, there is a fostering fear that, given the cuts in the E&P projects past years, there can be a supply-demand gap in the future- demand being more than the supply. The Paris based agency, IEA, recently reported this concern: “Global oil supply to lag demand after 2020 unless new investments are approved soon”. But the good news is that there certainly are new investments being approved: Total’s CEO says that in the next year and a half they are going to approve 10 big projects. Shell is also working on Kaikas deepwater oil in Gulf of Mexico. Also, the production cost for US wells has declined 46% according to some estimates from 2014 to 2016, according to Rystad Energy.

Other headwinds include a rising US dollar. It is widely understood that over the preceding decade that there has been an inverse correlation between the dollar and various commodities. A strong dollar causes commodities traded in greenbacks expensive for non-US trading economies. Hence, a reduction in demand, in this case for oil whose pricing level remains tenuous, would result in a plummeting global price. US Fed chief Janet Yellen has signaled a forthcoming increase in interest rates when the Fed’s FOMC meets in March 2017 for its policy setting meeting. The recent job data report for the month of February showed an addition of 235,000 jobs. The case for an interest rate hike, when the FOMC meets after few days, is very strong now. Moreover, given Trump’s future policy plans: increasing government spending and reducing corporate taxes, that are supposed to stoke inflation, markets are expecting more interest rate hikes this year as compared to the last one

The transport sector that accounts for every one out of four barrels produced is likely to undergo immense changes as well. Toyota Motors plans to stop producing petrol and diesel engines by 2050. Mr. Fatih Birol of IEA also says that “Electric cars are happening” and MIT’s TechnologyReview reported that the EV’s can affect the global gasoline consumption.

So as we are into the third month of the Vienna Oil deal, speculation is rampant but market observers are keenly following market fundamentals, US government monetary policy, OPEC production and global commodity demand. The oil prices hinges on a deal which was supposed to take the excess supply out of the markets but it is getting a tough time from the US shale producers. Albeit in the shorter term we can see oil prices being more or less favorable but there has been no change in the fundamentals. The inventory levels crossed 520 million. Goldman Sachs very rightly puts the title of one of their oil reports; it is truly the “New Oil Order” in the making.

Independent Economic Analyst, Writer and Editor. Contributes columns to different newspapers. He is a columnist for Oilprice.com, where he analyzes Crude Oil and markets. Also a sub-editor of an online business magazine and a Guest Editor in Modern Diplomacy. His interests range from Economic history to Classical literature.

Energy

MBS Outmaneuvers Russia’s Oil Politicking

Saad Khoury

Published

on

In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, one of the major economic consequences has been the substantial hit to the energy industry.

Ever since the virus began to spread in January, global markets have been tumbling. This set the price of oil in a downward spiral, reversing many gains  that had accumulated over the last several months. Demand for oil dropped for the first time in over a decade and forecasters at the International Energy Agency assess the decline will continue. While natural gas and coal markets have also been hit, oil demand has dropped more pronouncedly given it supports the freight and logistics sectors that have ground to a halt in recent weeks. The lack of demand for oil in China alone has had a devastating impact – Beijing’s newfound hunger for the commodity was responsible for most of the price increases recently.

However, these unique phenomena have had effects far beyond the purely economic. Politically speaking, the oil market crisis has pitted two global energy giants against each other, producing very intriguing results.

In early March, a meeting took place between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten other oil-producing countries, known as “OPEC+”. During the conference ending on March 6, Saudi Arabia’s leader, Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) reportedly pushed the idea of coordinating a reduction of output between Saudi Arabia and Russia. MBS planned to reduce output by over 1 million barrels per day, offsetting the major decrease in demand that had been triggered by the corona crisis to stabilize the market. The plan seemed like it was ready to go through until Moscow announced at the last minute that it would refuse. The Kremlin’s about-face came as a shock to OPEC and the international community who saw the move as an attempt to torpedo and politicize the oil sector.

Indeed, oil prices plunged by nearly 10% following the surprise move. It had been widely expected that the Russians would go along with the plan, simply because the alternative, i.e. leaving oil markets in a high-supply-low-demand frenzy, seemed much worse.

So what was at the heart of Russia’s bizarre decision? Revenge.

Washington imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil giant, Rosneft, a month ago over the company’s continued support in selling Venezuela’s oil. In an effort to retaliate, and perhaps prevent future American sanctions, Moscow was hoping to get Riyadh on its side in a plan to inflict economic pain on US shale producers. Moscow has for long felt American shale has been getting a free ride on the back of OPEC+ production cuts. For Moscow’s plan to work, it would still need the support of OPEC+ to ensure that price drops remained temporary and sustainable, since Russia’s oil economy cannot support its country playing oil politics for too long or for too much.

MSB on his part refused to take Russia’s actions lying down.

Almost immediately after Russia’s decision, Riyadh cut its official selling price for April down to $8, from a previous $14, in an effort to pressure Russia back into a deal. Days later, the Saudi government said it would begin increasing oil output to reach a record 13 million barrels per day. The decision came after authorities had already announced they were planning to increase output to 12.3 million. In a statement, Saudi Aramco, the largest energy producer in the world, stated, “it received a directive from the Ministry of Energy to increase its maximum sustainable capacity from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million.”

In essence, MBS has outmaneuvered the Russians in their attempt to hurt the global market and circumvent the effects of sanctions. In other words, MBS called Russia’s bluff by lowering prices even further so that the Kremlin could not dictate terms to OPEC. An impressive example of standing up to Russian manipulation, something that Western powers have been struggling to do for years. 

Russia on its part has been reeling from the effects of the Prince’s decision. 

On March 10, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak sought to project confidence, but acknowledged there was a decrease in prices and an increase in volatility. Novak also seemed to have admitted that his government made a mistake and had sought to reach out to the Saudis to “scheduled further meetings to estimate the situation.”

It is important to highlight that Russia was very likely thrown off balance by the Saudi reaction here. Moscow is not used to having its highhanded moves being responded to in kind, and almost certainly did not expect MBS to respond the way he did.  

While the future of this fallout is still unknown, one thing is certain: MBS has demonstrated his country will not be another pushover to Russian aggression.  

Continue Reading

Energy

Saudis’ price war or a Russian plot against U.S. shale?

Published

on

Since early Monday, the announcement of a “price war” between Saudi Arabia and Russia, two biggest OPEC+ allies, hit the headlines of almost all of the world’s news agencies and outlets and released a wave of panic across the markets all around the world.

Following the two sides’ bitter break up on Friday, oil markets started the week with a free fall; prices plunged nearly 30 percent on Monday to record the sharpest one-day fall in the past 29 years when the first Persian Gulf War was started in 1991.

Brent crude futures fell to nearly $30 on early Monday, the prices, however, bounced back later that day as the impacts of the event faded.

Energy experts and analysts are suggesting two completely different scenarios to explain the series of events that led to the Friday decision.

In one scenario, the one that is broadcasted globally, Saudi Arabia which wanted higher prices or at least wanted to maintain the current price levels asked for more cuts but Russia was OK with the current prices and even was ready for lower ranges so they didn’t agree and the OPEC+ deal ended.

The second scenario, which is more intriguing and more controversial, says that there is no “price war” between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and what we are witnessing is, in fact, Russia declaring war against the U.S.’s “global energy dominance”!

To learn more about the issue, the Tehran Times conducted an interview with Mahmoud Khaqani, an international energy expert. What follows is a summary of the expert’s views on the matter.

Saudis and Russia

Obviously, these days Saudi Arabia is not experiencing its best days. The Kingdom is under pressure both economically and politically.

According to Khaqani, the plunge in oil prices due to the sharp decline in global demand following the spread of coronavirus and its impact on the global economy and transportation has added significantly to the crown prince’s problems causing the young prince to call for deepening of the current 1.8 million cuts.

When faced with disagreement from its biggest non-OPEC allay Russia, the angry Saudi immediately lashed back by offering huge discounts for their oil prices and announcing that they would boost their production to more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd).

Russia, on the other hand, has maintained a calm attitude, saying that its oil industry is resilient enough to keep its market share and withstand even higher price downturns, he said.

Russia and the U.S.

Khaqani believes that the Russians are in fact at war with the U.S. oil industry, and Washington’s use of oil as a strategic asset.

What they call “price war” has already hit the U.S. oil industry hard since Friday and the persistence of the situation could damage the U.S oil industry and dethrone the U.S. from its position as the world’s largest oil producer.

Russia has targeted not only the U.S. oil industry but also the country’s bigger strategic programs for using oil and energy as leverage for applying corrective sanction policies, which Kremlin is already under.

Analysts believe that Russia is trying to thwart the U.S. sanctions that have been intervening with the completion of the country’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which would take natural gas to Europe, making Russia one of the biggest energy players in the world.

The U.S.

In response to the mentioned scenarios, The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has said that the U.S. will take all necessary measures to maintain its role as the world’s top energy producer and in fact, the country is not going to step back from its “global energy dominance” strategy.

Khaqani believes that the U.S. is seeking to take Saudi Arabia’s role in the oil market becoming the new swing producer capable of regulating production levels to control oil prices.

“These attempts by state actors to manipulate and shock oil markets reinforce the importance of the role of the United States as a reliable energy supplier to partners and allies around the world. The United States, as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, can and will withstand this volatility,” the DOE said in a statement.

Final thoughts

Whatever the real reason for the rift between Saudi and Russia is, its impacts on the oil market are undeniable.

If the “war” is just between the kingdom and Russia many believe that the impacts will be short-lived and in the near future, we would witness the markets getting back to a more stable status.

The fact is that now after the break-up Saudi Arabia is going to flood the already oversupplied market with oil and eventually Russia which is not able to increase its production as much as the kingdom will have to step back.

If the second scenario is correct, however, we should expect more complications.

From our partner Tehran Times

Continue Reading

Energy

Oil Wars: Russia and Saudi Arabia in the forefront

Sisir Devkota

Published

on

Recent developments in Italy and the stock market have things in common. Both came as an alarming surprise; while Italian authorities took stringent measures to lock down the entire nation due to Covid-19 fears, oil prices plunged remarkably in the past week. Rather shamelessly, Russia and Saudi Arabia are exploiting the international epidemic; in order to eclipse a once in a lifetime opportunity. As Saudi Arabia and Russia fought against each other to increase production, oil prices spiraled down in years. The oil giants are looking to consolidate losses from the past. Primarily, both the nations are looking to keep American oil supply arrested, amidst the pandemic uncertainty. As OPEC nations agreed to limit production in order to maintain oil prices, Russia disagreed, prompting the kingdom to counter a bizarre monopoly. The virus has kindled new age energy wars; at the epicenter, are two nations, displaying dreadful nature of international responsibility.

History is key here. Saudi Arabia is sluggishly recovering from an oil field disaster while Russia is eyeing years of forfeited trade advantage caused by western sanctions. International effort is concentrated towards containing the virus, whereas handful of interest agencies along with both nations are seeking an unlikely triumph. A true windfall has caught Russia by surprise, a rare opportunity that will not slip from Putin’s hand. On the other hand, Saudis, rather egoistically are pursuing their godsend place in the international energy market. The scuff is undoubtedly interesting, however; consequentially, it will also determine fortunes for some and famine for others. OPEC’s decision to lower production in order to maintain current oil price is not a samaritan effort; nevertheless, it would have saved capital over-indulgence that could have instead concealed humanitarian efforts to contain the pandemic. For now, management is key and stock market health can prove to be momentous. A lively market is key to ward off unprecedented economic stress.

Russia and Saudi Arabia’s naivety has led to extreme stock market resistance. The world is watching the fight closely, waiting and hoping for the standoff to deflate. It is not the stalemate that is most worrying; unusual market activity is quietly manufacturing an enormous bubble waiting to crack. Market resistance is tipping at a dangerous degree; world markets are sincerely counting on each other for support. For instance, consider how markets would plunge lower than they otherwise would, as oil prices keep decreasing uncommonly. A sinking ship is resisting, waiting for water levels that can only drown by all rationality. Hence, the analogue.It would have taken Russia and Saudi Arabia a great deal of conscience to withdraw national interests for the sake of global welfare. Just in case the virus does not cease to pare, we are in for a truly global disaster. As more nations will testify infected population, the stock market will increasingly face nervous breakdowns. Then after, it will be impossible to guess directions.

Reduced oil prices will complement some and destroy others; the relationship is so disturbing that daily economics might just have to re-invent itself in the face of unpredictability. Imagine the aviation industry exhausting oil demands, in the face of historic low prices. Russia and Saudi Arabia understand the tradeoffs, yet national interests have blindfolded competing energy giants. In the long run, Russia and Saudi Arabia would have stored enough barrels to dictate oligopoly. Alluringly, the case does not rest there. Both the nations will also be hoping for which now looks like a miraculous recovery from the pandemic; future profits will uncharacteristically depend on a healthy market. The risk has been taken despite of all uncertainties. For a change, both Putin and Bin Salman will also be praying, nevertheless.

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

African Renaissance32 mins ago

Chasing the sea

The voices are inside my head. Calling to me. Speaking in ancient tongues. They talk and talk and talk. The...

Europe3 hours ago

A New Twist in the Spanish Approach to Politics in Venezuela: Podemos in the Spanish Government

During the last pseudo-legislature in Spain, the position that had been maintained by the Spanish government towards Venezuela and its...

Human Rights5 hours ago

COVID-19 stoking xenophobia, hate and exclusion, minority rights expert warns

Combatting the COVID-19 pandemic must also include stamping out what one independent human rights expert has called the “darker sides”...

Newsdesk7 hours ago

World Bank to Help Improve Business Environment and Justice Service Standards in Croatia

The World Bank Board of Executive Directors today approved a loan to the Republic of Croatia for the Justice for...

Economy9 hours ago

Morocco’s Economy: COVID-19 Epidemic made a new development model

Considering the financial dilemma of 2008, the outbreaks of the Arab political spring that brush off the Arab society and...

Middle East11 hours ago

Resisting Lockdowns: Bringing Ultra-conservatives into the fold

The Coronavirus pandemic points a finger not only at the colossal global collapse of responsible public health policy but also...

Human Rights13 hours ago

Coronavirus pandemic threatens to plunge millions in Arab region into poverty and food insecurity

COVID-19 will be responsible for pushing a further 8.3 million people in the Arab region into poverty, according to a...

Trending