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Smearing campaigns lead to Trust Crisis

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[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] P [/yt_dropcap]ropaganda was originally about propagating faith, a task given in the 17th century to a committee of Catholic cardinals, the Sacred Congregation for the Propagation of the Faith. Gradually, propaganda became synonymous with biased information promoting a political agenda.

Over the 20th century, propaganda was charged with a new meaning, serving as a soft weapon for psy-ops. Today, armed conflicts have no start nor end. We live in some sort of permanent war where world powers fight for their place in a yet-to-be multipolar world. Consequently, all statements are considered as propaganda and have led to a Trust Crisis, directly impacting on elections world-wide.

More than words

The ‘raison d’être’ of any given language is to convey information. To do so, some languages do not used words. For instance, bees communicate the exact location of a flowers’ field by performing a figure eight movement. So far, we have no records of bees purposely transmitting wrong information to keep all the pollen for themselves or simply to crack a good joke on their fellow bees. A very different situation with human communication.

If words were a translation of reality, accounts of events would be the same. Unfortunately, for any given story, there are many different narratives. A story can be true or false. In 1938, historian Allan Nevis wrote that “a widespread and sleepless conspiracy exists against history”, as human beings tend to shape the past to benefit their own reputations. Many other historians and politicians corroborated his opinion: history tends to be written by the victorious power; or one’s freedom fighter is another’s terrorist. Conclusion: It is all about a question of perspective!

The Power of Symbols

All leaders understand the power of words and narrative creation. Some do not hesitate to resort to dubious etymology to support their views, as epitomized by Muammar Gadhafi, who tracked the origin of Shakespeare to an Arab named Sheikh Zubeyr.

Propaganda relies on the power of symbols. It uses strong images and violent contrast to enforce ideas. Where best might a Soviet anti-religious propaganda museum be opened but in the Cave Monastery of Kiev, the cradle of Orthodox monasticism? How ironic is it that the word propaganda was first referring to propagating faith, when Soviet propaganda targeted faith!

Scientia Vincere Tenebras

In ‘Particles Fever’, a documentary on the Higgs boson, Savas Dimopoulos discloses the reason that prompted his decision to become a physicist. As a young adult, he says, he was confused listening to extreme-right and extreme-left politicians holding contradicting opinions, yet both claiming to be true. To solve this conundrum, he “decided to focus on a field where the truth did not depend on the eloquence of the speaker, but where the truth was absolute”. For scientists, nothing is taken for granted. A scientific theory is first tested and remains valid until demonstrated otherwise. Unfortunately, such a rationale approach cannot be applied to other aspects of social and political life where opinions and decisions largely depend on personal choices and beliefs. Information falls beyond the realms of science, or does not pass Karl Popper test of falsifiability.

Propaganda and Indoctrination

In January 2017, Brunhilde Pomsel passed at the age of 106. For three years, she had been a secretary of Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi Minister of Propaganda. Pomsel’s job was to doctor statistics and to her grave she went protesting her innocence, claiming she knew nothing about the extermination of Jewish people. Like many others, she believed in the rhetoric of the system and her views were truncated by propaganda blinkers that she contributed to shape. Ignoring or denying reality creates a comfortable environment of self-delusion and blind peace of mind. “Repeat a lie enough time and it becomes the truth”, as Goebbels used to hammer.

To be efficient propaganda needs to be in tune with its audience, to resonate in the minds of the gullible public and to keep feeding its mental map with logical – yet biased – viewpoints. The sad news is that we are all vulnerable to propaganda as we do not have the means to validate all pieces of information. Our brain accumulates information, gradually laying out a psychological print – ‘our’ truth. We might not recall the exact details of a story but we keep a residual broad understanding of a situation or a person.

Information Noise

The information Big Bang triggered by the internet has created a gigantic infosphere that keeps expanding. The positive outcome is that our access to information has never been so easy and free. The negative aspect is that the infosphere generates noise. Huge quantities of obstreperous information are being channelled in all directions on information highways. The infosphere resembles an open canvas on which everybody is free to paint. The resulting picture is a rather chaotic impressionist piece, made of millions of info-dots or pieces of information. When looking at this infosphere, we see little harmony and many contradictions. And if we want to be heard, it is not good enough to be right; one needs to be louder than others.

“Trust me, I’m lying”

Media strategist, Ryan Holiday unveiled the dark side of content manipulation and news creation. In his book “Trust me, I’m lying”, he reveals ways to create and spread information. To survive, blogs and news outlets need to generate traffic and accumulate more page views than their competitors. Ryan Holiday explains that news makers exploit poor bloggers by paying them to post information that will increase their visibility. When an information has gained large coverage in blogs and secondary media, it attracts bigger media. Then, the information piece moves to a higher stage. Validated by major media, the piece of information enjoys stronger credibility and touches a larger audience. In this layer of the infosphere, volume of data and fast information exchange act as an echo chamber for any propaganda campaign. Once an information is out there, it gets amplifies and cannot be contained. It’s viral!

The dialectic of ‘Fake news’

Such volatile environment has increased reputational risks for companies and politicians. Smearing campaign, documents leaks, trolling can cause serious damages and major profit losses. Campaigns to besmirch individuals and politicians are daily, especially during election times. So, when an information attack (true or false) is launched, PR departments embark on swift counter-attack operations to limit damages. There is no time for evidence-based explanations or law suits, too lengthy and too complicated to offer a serious defence mechanism in information wars, where the principle of ‘innocent until proven guilty’ is completely disregarded. To mitigate the risk, the only approach is to divert the negative force onto a particular aspect of the scandal. For instance, PR specialists will distract the audience from the scandalous revelations by focusing on the origin of a leaked a document. ‘Much Ado About Nothing” simply created a smoke screen to empty any topic of its true substance.

Alternatively, the old adage remains valid: If you can’t convince them, confuse them! The expression “Fake News” is associated with President Donald Trump’s assessment of many media outlets. But “Fake News” is also a project of anti-Trump counter-propaganda launched by David Brock. The former right wing commentator turned to an influential operative in the Democratic Party, masters Hegelian dialectic. Under the lemma ‘Fake News’, we have now to understand a thesis and an anti-thesis, two statements affirming opposite content. To make sure that everybody is confused, the glamorous leader of MediaWatch has launched a ‘Fake News’ campaign to fight President Trump’s fake news!

And the giant Facebook has stepped in with its ‘disputable hashtag’ to flag Fake news and encourage fact-based information. But this attempt to separate the wheat from the chaff is not tackling the core issue. People will dispute the validity of this hashtag as a mean to frame opinions. Facebook is a commercial organization after all.

StratCom: EU vs Disinformation

Individuals, companies, States are all vulnerable to information-related risks. In November 2016, the European parliament adopted a resolution on EU strategic communication to counteract propaganda against Europe by third parties, namely ISIL/Daesh and Russia. The resolution states that hostile propaganda is a threat for the EU and strategic communication constitutes a defence mechanism in this information warfare. For instance, the EU East StratCom task force publishes a weekly Review on Disinformation.

The approach has long been known in Aikido teaching: revert the energy of the slam onto the face of the assailant. Thus, it is of no surprise that the EU team working on counter-propaganda is called the samurais!

The resolution was voted but as the minority opinion points out, there is a paradox in calling for independent medias supported by the EU.

The truth is out there

At the end of the day, civilians are the prime targets and the victims in this information battlefield. Permanent mesmerising resulted in a Trust Crisis, as the 2017 Elderman Trust Barometer showed. Propaganda and counter-propaganda are equally detrimental to the truth and furthermore, they polarize the population drawn in conspiracy theories. Today, ‘Fake News’ means one thing and its opposite. How confusing! And where is the ‘Real News’ then? Hopefully, the last Hegelian stage of synthesis is yet to come. To move away from the current ‘post-truth era’, we need to bring to light the intention of the speaker. The drivers of the speakers and the motivational forces behind the narratives constitute an analytical grid to decipher the content of any given account.

Human, All Too Human!

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New strategy of U.S. counter-intelligence: Real and unreal threats

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The newly published US Counter-Intelligence Strategy for 2020-2022 puts Russia and China at the top of the list of countries that pose a threat to the USA. “Russia and China are operating throughout the world, using all power instruments at their disposal against the United States, resorting to a wide variety of modern intelligence methods”, – the document says.

The strategy formulates five objectives for the counter-intelligence service: to protect the critically important infrastructure, cut the number of threats to basic supply chains, counteract the exploitation of American economy, defend the American democracy against foreign influence, and repulse cyberattacks and technological disruptions that could come from foreign intelligence.

The US has made public only a brief 11-page version of the strategy, whereas its full, classified variant will be submitted to members of intelligence committees in the House of Representatives and the Senate, to White House officials, heads of corresponding agencies and other officials with access to classified information. The mere list of goals for counter-intelligence gives rise to questions such as whether they are fully grounded or whether they are all but tribute to the current political trends in the USA.

As we read «protect the American democracy against foreign influence» we understand what they mean by ‘foreign’ – both Democrats and Republicans keep talking about Russian interference in American elections. Although this talk has long been dismissed by many as inconsistent with reality, it nevertheless, continues unabated.

The strategy, published on the website of the US National Counter-Intelligence and Security Center, is a renewed version of the 2015 document. The Center’s Director, William Ivanina, said as he presented the report that modern technology – artificial intelligence, encryption technology, internet of things – make the work of counter-intelligence more complicated. According to CBS, W. Ivanina has been saying since 2014 that China poses the most serious long-term threat to US security. In his words, the theft of American intellectual property, allegedly committed by the Chinese, cost the US 400 billion dollars annually.

Statements about stealing intellectual property are not new and are being exploited by the Americans to justify a trade war they are waging against China. It is not for the first time that the Trump administration is resorting to “banned methods” adding the country’s economic problems to the list of national security threats, which makes it possible to introduce restrictive measures against China.

The strategy in question is seeing light just as the debates on a new American budget are getting under way. This is not accidental given that documents of this kind can justify budgetary spending. In 2021 the US government is planning to spend $1.5 billion to counter “China’s influence” and another $596 million to establish “diplomatic cooperation for securing the strategy in regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. A statement to this effect is part of the press release circulated by the US State Department and published after the White House submitted to the Congress a draft budget for the next fiscal year.

However, proposals on the budget, though reflecting the position of the US administration, do not always become law. In most cases, the US Congress approves the budget depending on the political situation at home. Now that they have sustained defeat on Trump’s impeachment, the Democrats have a good chance to take it out on the budget. Democratic minority leader in the Senate Chuck Schumer has described the draft budget submitted by the incumbent administration for the next year as “a plan to destroy America”.

Considering that these are all but domestic political games, it is not immediately clear what Russia and China have to do with them.

From our partner International Affairs

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Modi’s extremism: Implications for South Asia

Sonia Naz

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Hindutva is a main form of Hindu nationalism in India this term was popularized by Vinayak Damodar Savarkar in the 20th century. It is reinforced by the Hindu extremist volunteer organization Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP), Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and Hindu Sena. Hindutva movement has been expressed today as almost fascist in the classical sense (sticking to a disputed idea of homogenized majority and dominance of culture).  The Hindutva moment has gained enormous momentum under the government of Modi (Zaman A. , 2019). Under the Modi’s government dozens of Muslims have been killed for the protection of cows. Most of them are those who allegedly slaughtering cows. These attacks indicate that Hindu extremism has increased. Even, lower caste Hindus also faced violence from hardliner Hindu extremists. (Zaman A. , 2019) .

The prevailing extremism in India is no longer a national issue, but is spilling over to become a regional flashpoint and has worldwide implications. The regional stability is endangered due to the current situation in Indian-occupied Kashmir (IoK) (Qureshi, 2019). Since the Modi’s extremist policies revoked article 370 of the constitution of India in which special and independent status had been given to the Indian-occupied Kashmir (IoK). This kind of extreme move of a fanatical ruler was expected, whereas, such kind of unconstitutional effort of a democratic government was not expected. Moreover, it is not only a violation of India’s constitution, but it is also a breach of United Nations Security Council Resolutions, which confirmed Kashmir as a disputed territory.

Furthermore, Article 370 and 35-A cancellation changed the demographic structure of IoK. Article 35A prevented the outsiders from staying, buying properties, getting local government jobs or scholarships in IoK than it annulment permitted outsiders to buy properties there.  Hindutva forces are trying to conquer the IoK territory with its 800000 military crowd, which is making the situation more instable there. It would not have lasting consequences for India, but for the whole region (Jaspal, 2019). The Kashmir imbroglio should be the concern of the entire world because it is a perilous flashpoint that could lead to a catastrophic war between two nuclear powers. If this happens, it would not engulf the region, but the entire world. The International community is insensitive towards the recent brutal developments have taken place in IoK. The brutalities boldly committed by the more than 500,000 Indian troops in the occupied valley. There should be a strong response of big powers and the international community towards the atrocious changes in India (Elahi, 2019). 

It is not the first time, Narendra Modi’s administration has involved in many disputes with the regional countries which has put the regional security at risk. Like, the Modi government relationship is not just deteriorated with Pakistan, but other neighbouring states too. In 2015, Madhesi Crisis in Nepal and border issues tensed the India Nepal relations. However, India restricted the flow of trade at the check posts whereas; India did not accept this blame. India also has not good relation with Sri Lanka since 2014 as Sri Lanka has been more disposed towards China with the signing of the infrastructure projects of belt road and initiatives. Moreover, New Dehli was concerned about the harbouring of Chinese submarines in Colombo and ruler of Maldives Abdulla Yameen signed fee trade treaties with China, which was not digestible for India (Wong, 2017).

India’s offensive nuclear posture towards Pakistan and increased violation of the Line of Control (LoC) has made the situation more adverse. India holds Pakistan responsible for every attack on its territory and its attitude towards Pakistan is very hostile. The Pathankot attack in 2016 and Pulwama attack in 2019 increased the resentment as Modi government blamed the attack on Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Muhammad. Pakistan asked India to provide evidence so that Pakistan can take action, but no evidence had been given. The Indian air force claimed launching air strikes on the camp of Jaish-e Mohammad mountainside in the Balakot region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa . While, following the attack international media and local media disgraced Indian claim of launching the attack and killing many militants. Next morning, Pakistan shot down an Indian MIG 21 fighter and captured the pilot who violated the Pakistan airspace. Still, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan showed peace gesture and released the captured pilot.  (Shoukat, 2019).

The Indian airstrike’s that were launched in response to Pulwama attack were clear a breach of Pakistan’s space sovereignty. It was a clear perspective of war, however; India has continued to justify its position by calling it non-military strike. It was extremely reckless behaviour of a nuclear state. Even, history shows that such events are very rare between nuclear weapons states while the US and Russia never engaged in direct airstrike’s (Jan, 2019). Afterward, an Indian submarine also detained by the Pakistani Navy, which tried to infringe Pakistani water.  India blames Pakistan for every attack and defies the Pakistan air, space and land territory itself. Besides, India is also responsible of sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan through its spies as one of them is Kulbushan Yadav (Shoukat, 2019).

 India’s nuclear doctrine also changed from No First Use (NFU) to First use. The false description of surgical strikes and attacks on non-state base points has demonstrated the uncertain security environment in South Asia.  The Indian nuclear doctrinal change increases the security risks in the region, particularly for Pakistan and China. At Pulwama, Pakistan clearly exposed India’s long-held fable of conventional superiority. At the same time, it is obvious that India would keep its behaviour hawkish towards Pakistan under the radical Hindutva mindset (Nawaz, 2019).

Additionally, India took another major step against the Muslims as it passed a bill on December 9, 2019 that would give the nationality to those migrants who want to become citizens of India except Muslims. This step of Prime Minster would increase the Modi Hindu-nationalist agenda. It would modify the India secular status, preserve by its founders in 1947. The Citizenship Amendment Bill passed by the lower house, the Lok Sabha with 311 votes. Now, it would be presented in the upper house and would become law soon. Hindu extremist agenda deeply unsettled the Muslims with this new law as they would make more than 200 million Muslims second class citizens and many of them stateless. It is not first extremist step of Modi, he also stripped away the autonomy of Kashmir, which was Muslim majority Indian occupied state.

 Furthermore, Hindu fundamentalist build a new temple over the remains of the demolished mosque in the Ayodhya. According to Modi this would protect the maltreated Hindus, Christians and Buddhists who want to migrate from Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, this brutal legislation would extradite innocent Muslim residents, even those whose families have been in India for generation, if they cannot provide evidence of citizenship. Under the Modi’s leadership, attacks and intimidation against Muslim community have augmented and anti Muslim sentiment has become deliberately more mainstream. The people of Assam are protesting in the streets and hoisting placards again the bill because it is against their rights and identity (Gettleman & Raj, 2019).

Besides, Bangladeshi Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen cancelled his visit for two days Indian Ocean Dialogue and Delhi Dialogue XI, to India. He also rejected a statement by Indian home minister Amit Shah that the new citizenship law will provide safety to “persecuted minorities” from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.  An official visit to India by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also been delayed due to the unrest in Assam. Following the protests began in Assam, a curfew was forced in four of the main cities in the state and the internet was shut down. Two paramilitary battalions were deployed to contain the demonstrations. (News, 2019).

In a nutshell, as evident from the aforementioned  brutal developments, it seems that India aspires to increasingly showcase itself  hegemon and potential big power in the region. The Prime Minister Modi government is impressed by the Hindu extremist ideology and making IoK its integral part by forcefully. Its hawkish policies towards Muslims in India and IoK has once again put at stake the peace and stability of the entire region of South Asia. Indian government not only targeting Muslims everywhere, but it is also seizing their identities which is dismantling secularism foundations of India. Moreover, Indian hawkish nuclear posture increases arms race in the region and it is not only threat for Pakistan but the entire region.

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Emerging Cyber warfare threats to Pakistan

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The potential for the next Pearl Harbor could very well be a cyber-attack.” -Leon Panetta

In the modern era, war has been revolutionized due to rapid advancements in technology. As a result, cyber security along with its pros and cons is contributing increasingly to modern warfare. Pakistan, however, is still in the developmental phase of cyber security. Although Pakistan has passed its first law related to cyber-crimes, in the form of the 2016 Prevention of Electronic Crime Act, the overall legislation related to cyber security is still vague and not as strong to deal with the dynamic and broad-ranging nature of threats that emanate from the realms of cyber security.

In recent years, the government has taken some initiatives in order to build capacity amongst the general public such as through PAK-CERT, Presidential Initiative for Artificial Intelligence & Computing (PIAIC), Skills for all Hunarmand Pakistan, Kamyab Jawan, and National Vocational & Technical Training (NAVTTC).Yet, as has been the case for quite some time, most of these initiatives are aimed simply at spreading greater awareness to help lay the foundations for a more robust cyber security architecture. Amidst such developments, the question that arises for Pakistani policymakers is thus where their country currently stands in the cyber domain and how cyber warfare is posing threats to its national security.

In this era of innovation and connectivity even major powers such as the U.S, Russia, China, Israel and the United Kingdom remain vulnerable to an evolving spectrum of cyber threats. Across the world, states are now increasingly dependent on cyber technology which has greatly increased their chances of vulnerability. The most known example is 2015 Stuxnet virus, whereby a devastating cyber-attack on Iranian nuclear facilities wreaked havoc such as at the Nantaz Nuclear facility, significantly rolling back the Iranian nuclear program. Similarly, the WannaCry outbreak in 2017 caused mass disruption by shutting down vital computing systems in more than 80 NHS organizations in England alone. This resulted in almost 20,000 cancelled appointments, 600 GP surgeries having to return to pen and paper, and five hospitals simply diverting ambulances, unable to handle any more emergency cases. Widely attributed as being state sponsored, the attack set another devastating precedent testifying to the wide-ranging vulnerabilities that exist even in some of the world’s most advanced countries. 

Pakistan’s cyber space too is insecure for many reasons because Pakistan is dependent on others for technology. According to leading global cyber security firms such as Symantec, Pakistan is among the ten most targeted countries in the world. Main targets include Pakistan’s nuclear and other critical installations, with publicly revealed assaults on an assortment of media houses, as well as the communications networks, of key government departments including, transport and, basic utilities. Such threats for instance were further confirmed by the Snowden documents released between 2013-2014 that had showed how the NSA was keeping an eye on Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders, utilizing a malware called SECONDATE.

Recently in the year 2019, Rising Security Research Institute has captured the attack launched by the internationally renowned Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) organization “Rattlesnake” through the Rising Threat Intelligence System. This time, the organization had targeted the Pakistani Navy via Target collision hijacking method. Specifically targeting the Pakistan Naval Public Relations Bureau, the attempt was aimed at stealing vital information from secure military networks while planting misleading documents masquerading as official statements from the Pakistan Navy regarding its regional neighbors such as China and India.  Based on such threats, Pakistan must be readily prepared for any kind of cyber espionage and take steps towards establishing a strong national cyber policy to protect its civilian and military infrastructure.

Therefore, at this stage it is imperative that Pakistan seriously focus on the development of a robust cyber war apparatus. This would especially help mitigate the numerous threats being posed to its banking system, as well as major government networks such as its ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as other military networks that have been previously targeted such as in the case shown above. As such Pakistan can take a number of initial steps by developing strategies to prevent malwares and denial of service (DOS) attacks to reduce such threats at least to a certain level.

Yet, Pakistan has still not developed a cohesive Cyber Command or any National Cyber Policy to deal with the regional cyber threats being posed to Pakistan. Even though Pakistan has recently developed a cyber-security auditing and evaluation lab, it is still in its formative stages. There is still immense space to develop advanced tools and research technologies to protect Pakistan’s cyberspace, sensitive data, and local economy from cyber-attacks while restricting illegal penetrations in it. Especially such as the initiative taken by the newly setup National Centre for Cyber Security which aims increase the number of indigenously trained cyber security professionals within the public sector.

Keeping to this trajectory Pakistan should emphasize more on indigenously developing its own cyber security industry so that in the near future it could benefit both its civilian and military infrastructure in the long run. Hence, while Pakistan may be limited in its ability to wage a strong offensive campaign within the realm of cyber warfare at the moment, such steps would go a long way in helping lay the foundations to build something greater on.

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