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Economy

Does Economic Growth Alleviate Poverty in Developing Countries?

Enrique Muñoz-Salido

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Poverty alleviation has implied an important goal for developing countries and policy-makers throughout the last century. Recently, organisations such as the United Nations and the World Bank have reported an increasing necessity for centring efforts on facing determinant factors of poverty growth in such countries.

In light of this claim, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has reminded the paramount role of the economic growth as a powerful factor for reducing poverty in developing countries. Incidentally, this positive effect can be drawn from empirical evidence such as the unprecedented poverty reduction associated with economic growth in the India since 1980, the poverty reduction—from 69% to 54%—in Mozambique caused by a 62% economic growth between 1996 and 2002, or the Chinese’s economic growth, which have lifted 450 million of people out of poverty since 1979.

Since back in time, a set of growth models have tried to address the complex mechanics of economic growth. Albeit started with a neo-Keynesian focus on savings (Harrod’s model in 1939 and 1948; and Domar’s model in 1946 and 1947), the dominant economic-growth strand over time has been that based on the exogenous Solow-Swan’s model, of 1956 and 1957, and the endogenous model proposed by Paul Romer and Robert Lucas, in 1986 and 1988, respectively. Solow-Swan’s states the capital accumulation—allowing for slow-down returns in capital and labour as it continues—as the main factor for boosting economic growth, which leads to a steady-state where, without technological progress, a country’s economic growth does stop. As that neo-classical model exogenously assumes the technological advance, this deficiency led economists Paul Romer and Robert Lucas to calibrate the economic growth theory by mathematically demonstrating the endogeneity of technological progress, which assumes the human capital and the technological change (i.e. investment in Research & Development) as main causal determinants.

Subsequently, traditional policy recommendations towards increasing economic growth have been aligned with the aforesaid factors drawn from such models, i.e. foreign direct investment, international trade, fiscal measures, etc. Nevertheless, since recent evidence drawn from the seminal work of Dani Rodrik, which points to the undervaluation of a country’s currency as a robust, determinant factor for boosting economic growth, his consistent real-exchange-rate-based endogenous model has brought much of the aforesaid traditional literature into disrepute. Incidentally, the real exchange rate not only achieves to accelerate economic growth but also has a positive impact boosting export flows.

In order to put this mechanics into context, let us reflect upon the undervaluation (also called real-depreciation) of a country’s currency within an international arena. In such context, if a country’s currency becomes undervalued/real-depreciated, the international arbitrage does play a crucial role that results in boosting economic growth. This hypothetical prediction associates the misallocation of an economy’s resources—when taxes on tradable goods are higher than those on non-tradable goods—with a suboptimal economic growth—which is a consequence of the resulting small dimensions of the economy’s tradable sector—setting a set of conditions for real-depreciations to boost economic growth if considering the comparative advantage that it might result for international arbitrage.

In short, the calibration of Dani Rodrik demonstrates that real-depreciations can boost economic growth under the assumption that taxes on tradable goods are higher than those on non-tradable goods, which also increases profits on the tradable sector.

In light of the common claims in research, such as that by Anna Buchanan in her paper “Impact and knowledge mobilisation: what I have learnt as Chair of the Economic and Social Research Council Evaluation Committee”, it can be identified a paramount necessity for economic policies to be based on empirical evidence, which is suggested by the governments’ particular inclination for this type of policy recommendations. Such preferences can be understood as the evidence-based policies are more likely to succeed and have a real impact on the target issue, which contributes to avoid eventual risks and difficulties that may arise from well-intentioned policies without a scientific root.

The conclusion arising from this article is the following. First, there exist an obvious empirical linkage between poverty alleviation and economic growth. Second, since back in time, traditional models have sown the seeds of a theoretical controversy and hence of a controversial effectiveness of the economic growth in fighting poverty. Third, Rodrik’s proposed misallocation of economy’s resources has implied an answer for disentangling theory from pragmatism. To sum up, Rodrik’s well-managed real exchange rate might imply an excellent evidence-based tool for future, powerful measures aimed at effectively alleviating countries’ poverty with such particular characteristics, which might allow public policies to go beyond traditional paradigms.

Enrique works in the tech industry, computer software, in the City, London. His interests lie at crossroads of human behavior and software. Enrique is an Oxford Masters graduate, Talentia scholarship.

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Economy

How U.S.’s Response to Covid-19 Could Precipitate 2nd Great Depression

Eric Zuesse

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On March 10th of this year, there were 290 daily new U.S. cases of Covid-19 (coronavirus-19).

On March 13th, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a pandemic national emergency, because the number of daily new cases was now suddenly doubling within only three days. However, no lockdown was imposed. The policy-response was instead left to each individual. This is in accord with America’s libertarian idelogy. Trump even announced that “he was allowing his health secretary to bypass certain regulations to provide more flexibility to doctors and hospitals responding to the outbreak” — outright reducing, insead of increasing, federal regulations, this being his way to address the matter. That’s the libertarian response.

Covid-19 (coronavirus-19) cases started soaring in the U.S., from 600 daily new cases on March 13th, to 25,665 on March 31st. Americans were scared to death, and facemask-usage soared, and independent small businesses started laying people off en-masse. (Restaurants, hair salons, travel agencies, inns, dental offices, etc., were hard-hit.)

Immediately, the alarming rise in new cases halted on April 4th (at 34,480), and the daily new cases remained approximately flat, but slightly downward, from March 31 to June 9th (when it reached bottom at 19,166), but then soared yet again, to 78,615, on July 24th.

But, then, it again declined, so that, on September 8th, it was at only 28,561. This was already returning to around what the new-cases rate had been back on March 31st. So: despite peaking again on July 24th, the rate of daily new cases was little changed between March 31st and September 8th. And, all during that 5-month period, people were coming back to work.

The key immediate and direct economic variable affected by Covid-19 is the unemployment rate. Here, that economic effect is clearly shown:

U.S. unemployment: March 4.4%, April 14.7%, May 13.3%, June 11.1%, July 10.2%, August 8.4%

Though the daily-new-cases rate went down after March 31st and after July 24th, the unemployment rate progressed far more gradually downward after March 31st: the small businesses that had been panicked by the explosion of new cases during March were now gradually re-opening — but they remained very nervous; and, so, unemployment still was almost twice what it had been during March.

Here, that experience will be compared with two Scandinavian countries, starting with Denmark, which declared a pandemic national emergency on March 13th, just when Trump also did. “Starting on 13 March 2020, all people working in non-essential functions in the public sector were ordered to stay home for two weeks.” The daily new cases fell from the high of 252 on March 11th, down to the low of 28 on March 15th, but then soared to 390 on April 7th, and gradually declined to 16 (only 16 new cases) on July 9th. Then it peaked back up again, at 373, on August 10th, plunged down to 57 on August 26th, and then soared yet again back up to 243 on September 8th. The new-cases rates were thus irregular, but generally flat. By contrast against the experience in U.S., Denmark’s unemployment-rate remained remarkably stable, throughout this entire period:

Denmark: March 4.1, April 5.4, May 5.6, June 5.5, July 5.2

Sweden’s Government pursued a far more laissez-faire policy-response (“The government has tried to focus efforts on encouraging the right behaviour and creating social norms rather than mandatory restrictions.”), and had vastly worse Covid-19 infection-rates than did the far more socialistic Denmark, and also vastly worse death-rates, both producing results in Sweden more like that of the U.S. policy-response than like that of the Danish policy-response, but far less bad than occurred on the unemployment-rate; and, thus, Sweden showed unemployment-increases which were fairly minor, more like those shown in Denmark:

Sweden: March 7.1, April 8.2, May 9.0, June 9.8, July 8.9

That was nothing like the extreme gyration in:

U.S.: March 4.4%, April 14.7%, May 13.3%, June 11.1%, July 10.2%, August 8.4%

Why was this? 

Even though Sweden’s policy-effectiveness was more like America’s than like Denmark’s at keeping down the percentages of the population who became infected, and who died from Covid-19 (i.e., it was not effective), Sweden’s policy-effectiveness at keeping down the percentage of the population who became unemployed was more like Denmark’s (i.e., it was effective, at that). Unlike America, which has less of a social safety-net than any other industrialized nation does, Sweden had, until recently, one of the most extensive ones, and hasn’t yet reduced it down to American levels (which are exceptionally libertarian). Therefore, whereas Swedes know that the Government will be there for them if they become infected, Americans don’t; and, so, Americans know that, for them, it will instead be “sink or swim.” Make do, or drop dead if you can’t — that is the American way. This is why Swedish unemployment wasn’t much affected by Covid-19. When a Swede experienced what might be symptoms, that person would want to stay home and wouldn’t be so desperate as to continue working even if doing that might infect others. Thus, whereas Sweden’s unemployment-rate rose 27% from March to May, America’s rose 202% during that same period. Americans were desperate for income, because so many of them were poor, and so many of them had either bad health insurance or none at all. (All other industrialized countries have universal health insurance: 100% of the population insured. Only in America is healthcare a privilege that’s available only to people who have the ability to pay for it, instead of a right that is provided to everyone.)

On September 9th, Joe Neel headlined at NPR, “NPR Poll: Financial Pain From Coronavirus Pandemic ‘Much, Much Worse’ Than Expected”, and he reported comprehensively not only from a new NPR poll, but from a new Harvard study, all of which are consistent with what I have predicted (first, here, and then here, and, finally, here), and which seems to me to come down to the following ultimate outcomes, toward which the U.S. is now heading (so, I close my fourth article on this topic, with these likelihoods): 

America’s lack of the democratic socialism (social safety-net) that’s present in countries such as Denmark (and residual vestiges of which haven’t yet been dismantled in Sweden and some other countries) will have caused, in the United States, massive laying-off of the workers in small businesses, as a result of which, overwhelmingly more families will be destroyed that are at the bottom of the economic order, largely Black and/or Hispanic families, than that are White and not in poverty. Also as a consequence, overwhelmingly in the United States, poor people will be suffering far more of the infections, and of the deaths, and of the laying-off, and of the soon-to-be-soaring personal bankruptcies and homelessness; and, soon thereafter, soaring small-business bankruptcies, and ultimately then big-business bankruptcies, and then likely megabank direct federal bailouts such as in 2009, which will be followed, in the final phase, by a hyperinflation that might be comparable to what had occurred in Weimar Germany. The ceaselessly increasing suffering at the bottom will ultimately generate a collapse at the top. Presumably, therefore, today’s seemingly coronavirus-immune U.S. stock markets, such as the S&P 500, are now basically just mega-investors who are selling to small investors, so as to become enabled, after what will be the biggest economic crash in history, to buy “at pennies on the dollar,” the best of what’s left, so as to then go forward into the next stage of the capitalist economic cycle, as owning an even higher percentage of the nation’s wealth than now is the case. Of course, if that does happen, then America will be even more of a dictatorship than it now is. Post-crash 2021 America will be more like Hitler’s Germany, than like FDR’s America was.

The Democratic Party’s Presidential nominee, Joe Biden, is just as corrupt, and just as racist, as is the Republican nominee, Donald Trump. And just as neoconservative (but targeting Russia, instead of China). Therefore, the upcoming November 3rd elections in the U.S. are almost irrelevant, since both of the candidates are about equally disgusting. America’s problems are deeper than just the two stooges that America’s aristocracy hires to front for it at the ballot-boxes.

Author’s note: first posted at Strategic Culture

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Economy

Democracy in the doldrums

Samudrala VK

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It is clear that during the COVID-19 pandemic  times, Democracy has gone pear shaped throughout the world. Power and Political activity are considered as alpha and omega of the modern day democracy.
The Modern state(political authority),which is based on legitimacy and a tool to deliver political, economical and social justice, has been rendering yeoman service to
corporates, both domestic and foreign. The ruling dispensations all around the globe have resorted to authoritarianism under the guise of health emergency. In addition, the topsy turvy of Democracy, through excessive centralisation and the iron curtain imposed on political activities during this pandemic, has left minimal space to raise the concerns of the urban poor. The pandemic, a bolt from the blue, has caught our health systems off guard. In India, the labour class has caught between the devil and the deep sea, thanks to the recent twin moves of the central government, privatization and the helter-skelter lockdown. The pernicious effects of the lockdown are yet to hit the masses. Seemingly, the rudderless policies of central government have created enough space to further pauperization of masses, mostly have-nots.
Now, the federal governments of third world countries have to walk on razor edge by meeting the fiscal deficit targets on one hand and by connecting the welfare dots on the other.It is not surprising to say that the big corporates are making good fortunes with the relaxation of tax rates and new labour codes. As unemployment is hanging like the sword of domacles over the working class, the corporate class would expect this surplus labour to be at their beck and call.The early warnings of intelligentsia on the consequences of disastrous lockdown  were remained as the voices crying in the wilderness. The ruling elite has been trying to enshroud the general despondency among the civic force by shifting the propaganda machinery to sensitive elements like religion, hyper nationalism and sloganeering-not to mention self aggrandizement.

Neo-liberalism and corporatisation

The diktats of the world bank and the IMF(International monetary fund) on the third world nations like pruning the subsidies, roll back of welfare measures and the abatement of labour laws as an essential sina qua non for any sort of relief package during the crisis of BOP(Balance of payments) have left labour class of the thrid world nations in quandary. The US with the support of the WTO( World Trade Organization)had exhorted all these countries to provide untrammeled access its products. Apparently, the aims and paths of federal governments of these nations ,the WTO and the IMF are congruent with regard to free trade and the globalization of capital. The lawful protections for the working class under the labour laws have proved disastrous for the interests of the capitalist class and being viewed as shackles for the exploitation. The decades-long struggle to retain these labour rights in independent nation states has been ending in smoke due to weakened trade unions and the decline of social capital. The time has come to fight tenaciously and move heaven and earth to restore their rights which are otherwise go to the dogs. When the market space is being dominated by Monopoly or Duopoly or Tripoly, the free and fair competition which the unhindered market guarantee is an absolute sham. Extolling the virtues of Neo-liberalism, the modern nation states have centred their development agenda in and around urban centres. Economically, in the post-liberal era of India, the upward mobility is largely confined to a few sections of the urban middle class.

Welfare economics

It is wrong to mention that welfare economics is based on “Rob Peter to pay paul principle” when Peter has direct access to resources(natural, political, economical and social) vis-a-vis Paul. It is not the Peter but the Paul who is running from the pillar to post in search of opportunities. The notion of political equality of liberal ideological stream revolves around freedom and liberty of an individual and overlooks the core elements of equality like social and economical justice. The central governments all over the world have successfully repudiated the pro-poor agenda and this volte face from welfare state to pro-capitalist state has pushed the labour class out of the frying pan into the fire.

Nexus between political class and biggies

The unholy nexus between the political class  and corporates has been riding roughshod over the interests of poor. This alliance behooves the political class to safeguard the vested interests of corporate bigwigs. It is apposite to mention that representative democracy has been metamorphosing into a turncoat democracy. Back in the day, Politicians were known for their erudition, statesmanship and uncompromising ideological commitment. On the contrary, present day representatives are turning into snollygosters for their personal gains. There are several voluminous reports from different corners on rising economical disparities in the post-liberal era on which no political party is keen to act upon. As Michael Jackson, king of pop, penned in one of his famous tracks “All I want to say is that they don’t really care about us”-the lyrics are still relevant in this pandemic times.

Globalization and dependency

The South Asian nations have started their LPG (Liberalisation, privatization and Globalization) path at the same time, with the exception of Sri Lanka which had opened its economy by fits and starts.They had adjusted their economical apparatus with a new global integration process at a time when the global economical architecture was dominated by unipolar power, the US.
The lopsided globalization process has been converting many third world countries as dependents and in some cases almost to a level of aid recipients upon the erstwhile colonial powers or the US. Under the banner of global integration, all these nations were dragged into this complex whole, in most of the cases through persuasion. In the name of free trade, the Western powers have been  bleeding these nations white of their resources. The asymmetrical globalization has also challenged the sovereignty of these nations while the same has remained intact in case of developed nations. The US has been playing a rigged game of globalization under the auspices of the WTO, the world bank and other agencies. The time has come for these players to bury their hatchet and rise as a one voice to have a just order at the international sphere.

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Economy

Objectives and Importance of Advertising in a Competitive Business World

Ahsan Siraj

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The best way to communicate with the customers is communication through advertisements. Through advertising customers are informed about the available brands in the market and also variety of new and existing products useful for them.Here are different definitions of advertising.

According to Kotler’s definition: “Advertising is any paid form of non-personal presentation & promotion of ideas, goods, or services by an identified sponsor.”

According to the Advertising Association of the UK: “Advertising is any communication, usually paid-for, specifically intended to inform and/or influence one or more people.”

Advertising is done by using different media types and different techniques and methods as per the requirements. It also aims to attract all age groups depending on the nature of brands and products they are offering to their customers. Communication between companies and customers are basically carried out in a very artistic way and for this effective communication in order to fulfil desired objectives one should possess great communication skills and convincing power.

What are Advertising Objectives?

Advertising is part of marketing and one of the most creative fields. Advertising is part of marketing but normally people confuse advertising with marketing. Hence, the objectives of Advertising are completely different from Marketing. The main objective of advertising is to carry out communications between the brand and the customer. Here are some more important objectives of advertising.

  • The introduction of the new product in the market is the most common reason behind the advertising by the brands and these brands can be new in the market as well as existing brands. The objective here is to tell customers about the new product launched in the market.
  • There are a lot of new businesses starting in the market and many among those are service providing businesses. For services the business are marketed as a brand instead of marketing their individual products.
  • Businesses use advertising to get attention as well as creating desire to buy a certain product or service and according to the AIDA model mostly followed in advertising basically getting attention is awareness creation while desire creation leads to buying. By advertising companies capture attention of people and make them aware of the products available in the market.
  • Another important objective of advertising is seeking customers. These customers can be both new and the ones purchasing from other brands. By effective advertising potential customers can be attracted to a certain brand making existing customers to switch brands.
  • In a competitive business world, it is very important to differentiate a brand’s product and service from its competitors and it is done by effective advertising. A customer can only differentiate between products and services based on the value a certain business provides over its competitors. That’s why advertising is used to create value and to differentiate one brand’s products and services from others in the market.
  • Brand building is also an important objective of advertising. So, when a brand regularly advertises and delivers quality products and fulfills the promises it makes, automatically the value of the brand is built.
  • Increasing the sales is another objective being achieved by effective advertising. The more customers attracted to a brand by advertising the more increase in sales is recorded.
  • With the value being communicated and the brand being differentiated as well as sales being increased, there is no doubt that advertising can contribute a lot to increasing profits.

What is the Importance of Advertising?

Advertising is equally important to customers, businesses and society. So, here are some of the important factors to all above mentioned areas.

Importance of advertising to Customers

Convenience: Advertisement is very helpful for customer’s decision-making process because through advertisement customers are well aware of their desired products available in the market. So, it is convenience for them to find their desired products in the market.

Awareness: It is due to the advertising that customers are well aware of the products and their features available in the market.This awareness not only helps customers to make purchase decision but also enable them to compare different products and choose the best product for them.

Quality Assurance: When we look at the trends in the market we come to know that advertising is done by brands only about their products and services. No local businesses go for advertising because no advertisements are required for unbranded products. This ensures quality products to the customers.

Importance of advertising to Business

Awareness: It is because of advertising that people are well aware of their desired brands and productsavailable in the market.

Brand Image: It is very important to create a positivebrand image and brand personality in the minds of the customers and it is done efficiently by advertising.

Product Differentiation: One business is able to differentiate its product from those of its competitors’ and communicate its features and advantages to the target audience by using effective advertising.

Profit MaximizationDue toadvertising brands are able to deliver their message to a large audience and hence more people tend to buy from those brands ultimately making them able to earn more money.

Importance of advertising to Society

Advertising is really helpful in educating people. There are some social issues required to be addressed for social benefits and advertising deals with them like child labor, smoking, family planning education, etc. therefore, advertising plays a significant role in society.

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