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African Challenge, African Hope: Resource-seeking by the Indian State

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Authors: Suresh George & Andrew Amayo

This paper attempts to analyze how the Indian state is managing its institutional strategy in the midst of inter-state competition for energy resources in the African continent. On its way to becoming the third largest economy globally, India is expected to import 61% of its energy resources, while the demand for energy resources by India is expected to outpace that of China by 2035 (BP 2014).

The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, visited key energy-rich states in the first six months of his election, proving that India is no longer content with playing ‘catch-up’ to other resource-seeking states (Saritha 2014) and is redefining its state-driven energy security strategy.

Energy security is one of the Indian state’s chief strategic and political issues as it seeks to consolidate its economic success over the recent decade. Dadwal and Sinha indicate that over 70% of India’s crude oil demand was met through imports using a mixture of short-term policy mechanisms built on relationships with international oil companies (IOC) and to seek preferential terms from these IOCs. Today, the state is seeking to acquire energy assets overseas and competing with IOCs and National Oil Companies (NOC) within a formal resource-driven approach. India’s growing oil demand has forced the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas to ‘acquire acreages abroad for exploration as well as production.’ (Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 1999). A new institutional approach that has been enshrined in the state’s ‘India Hydrocarbon vision 2025 report’ clearly points to a more aggressive resource-based approach from the Indian State. This new energy security approach indicates that the state is using multiple approaches to drive resource-seeking, especially in the African context.

These strategies can be broadly classified into the following:

1.A market-based approach of energy security

2. An institutional-based approach using all state and non-state assets to seek and obtain access to energy sources

3.A security-based approach that offers a security umbrella to resource-rich actors.

Some of the specifics of these approaches are:

(i)The Indian state has begun to leverage India’s energy “Buyer Power” to access quality E&P projects abroad or what we would like to define as a market-based energy security approach.

(ii)Diversification of Energy Supply: The Indian state is also considering several diversification options to ensure supply security; hence the need for diversification into new supply sources as well as securing new routes of supply.

(iii)The inclusion of the private sector through the Confederation of Indian Industry’s energy division that has been holding seminars and conferences, increasing the visibility and uptake of the state’s new approach.

(iv)The creation of a specialised energy security cell within the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) that is staffed with career diplomats who have expertise in specific and strategic markets that India would like to access as well as defense and industry experts in the field of energy asset acquisition.

(v)The use of diplomatic and political strategies for the import of energy resources from geographically close states has become an instrument of state policy enshrined in its institutional-based approach. For years, policy mandarins have indicated that state inertia combined with a lack of coordination amongst several ministries prevented the Indian state from competing with China. This is no longer the case apparently.

(vi)Indian foreign policy and its execution by the Foreign Service are of prime importance in this new scenario. The Indian state is moving aggressively to increase the diplomatic corps as well as language /geography specialists.

(vii)The policy of the state to encourage the transportation of crude oil through Indian flag vessels was proposed as a form of its security-based approach. An example of this approach has been the very recent political engagement India is seeking with Indian Ocean states. According to Chatterji (2015) the security-based approach is a response to protect the sea-lanes of communication (SLOC) that transport India’s energy resources as well as to increase the state’s ability to extract resources from newer distant markets.

(viii)The new reality of geostrategy within Asia, with China acting aggressively in both the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, is forcing India to abandon its traditional non-aligned approach and move to aggressively engage its immediate neighbourhood.

The importance of the African continent and renewed focus on East Africa in particular has been visible in the political and economic engagement of the Indian state. In 2011 India imported over 21% of its total oil and gas imports from 8 African countries, with India’s national oil company OVL planning to invest $12 billion, focusing primarily on African connections. (Pradhan 2012) In addition, a joint-venture with ONGC and the Mittal group announced a $6 billion investment in Nigeria to set up a refinery, power plant, and railway infrastructure. (Pradhan 2012)

The Chief Executive of the world oil and gas assembly, Narendra Taneja, has been quoted in Pradhan (2012), stating that ‘today’s growth story is India and in 15 to 20 years the growth story will be Africa. India wants to be in Africa as a strong partner.’ There is a renewed focus on East Africa due to historical connection and the influence of the Indian diaspora within the economic sector of several African states. In addition, the Indian state feels that governments in East Africa are becoming more transparent and willing to do business with Indian firms. Several Indian companies have already been engaging with East Africa for export markets as well as to provide new segments for products and services. As an example, one of India’s largest telecom providers, BHARTI Telecom, is currently one of Africa’s biggest telecom service providers. But in spite of Africa’s potential, India has been slow to engage due to the perceived inability of the state to compete with China in resource-seeking on purely commercial terms as well as the political difficulties of engaging with fairly unstable states in the region.

We attempt to look at this issue through an analysis of India’s involvement in Kenya. The state of Kenya in Africa was chosen partly due to its historical connections to India and the researchers access to key political and economic elite within the Kenyan state. Consideration was also given to Kenya’s status as a new oil producer state, the role of the Indian diaspora in its development, and its recent key engagement with Asian powers. India’s NOC, the Oil and Natural Gas Commission (ONGC), through its overseas exploration subsidiary ONGC Videsh (OVL), has been reported to be considering the takeover of Tullow Oil PLC in Kenya. (Verma 2014) By taking over the company, the Indian state through OVL will have access to existing oil fields in the Turkana region of Kenya as well as the Jubilee oil field in the offshore waters of Ghana. (Verma 2014) This study focuses on three key aspects: the resource-based view approach used by firms; the institutional context of how firms deploy a mixture of resources and institutional capabilities to obtain the best possible competitiveness advantage; and how the state creates and fosters specific policy and institutional environments that support these strategies.

Figure 1 :Author Analysis of existing state owned Oil Assets

Some of the resource-seeking activities of the Indian state in key African markets from (Pradhan 2012) are:

africanmarkets

(i)Nigeria- ONGC and the Mittal group. Another private firm, the Essar group, is reported have procured exploration and production blocks in Nigeria as well. The Gas authority of India Ltd (GAIL) is also looking to invest in a liquefied natural gas plant in Nigeria.

(ii)Egypt – The Gas authority of India Ltd (GAIL) is reported to have entered into a joint venture with Egyptian natural gas (NATGAS) to distribute gas in Egypt.

(iii)Mozambique- Reliance industries and the Essar group have sought official government permission to bid for new exploration and production blocks.

(iv)Sudan – ONGC Videsh (OVL) was expected to invest $200 million in a 741 km pipeline that would link Port Sudan with the capital, Khartoum.

(v)Mauritius – In March 2006 India signed an MoU with Mauritius for the exploration of its offshore waters

(vi)South Africa- India’s negotiating to set up a compressed natural gas network.

(vii)Kenya – ONGC Videsh (OVL) plans to take over Tullow Oil PLC. By taking over the company, the Indian state through OVL will also have access to the offshore waters of Ghana.

Despite historical closeness to the continent as well as geographical proximity, the Indian state has not deployed any of its diplomatic assets or soft power because of the lack of institutional will to truly engage the African continent. The geographical proximity of Africa is one of the key reasons why there was renewed interest in Africa as a market and also due to the resources available in offshore waters. The African continent provides India with a wealth of opportunities in an ocean that the Indian state has dominated. Most of the African states around the Indian Ocean, like South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania, have historically attracted Indian investment and trade partnerships. In addition, India has been working to nurture relations with other oil-producing states like Nigeria, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and Cote d’Ivoire. For example, in 2011 India signed a uranium agreement with Namibia and has also used state-owned companies like ONGC Videsh, private owned firms like the Tata group, and Vedanta resources to buy stakes in key resource assets. The potential of Africa as an alternative to dependence on the Middle East was also pursued by the Indian government through special government-to-government supply contracts as well as through special lifting quotas of oil resources. There is still much to be done to see the full realization of Indian development on the African continent. But progress is being made and the future will likely only see more intensive engagement and pursuit of mutually beneficial activities. Much of the literature today focuses on China’s presence in Africa. May this be the first step in making more realize how important a player India will be there as well.

(*) Andrew Amayo is a member of the faculty at Birmingham City University in the UK.

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South Asia

A double-edged sword: China and Pakistan link up with fibreoptic cable

Dr. James M. Dorsey

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This month’s inauguration of a fibreoptic cable linking Pakistan with China could prove to be a double-edged sword. Constructed by Chinese conglomerate Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd, the cable is likely to enhance both Pakistan’s information communication technology infrastructure as well as the influence of Chinese authoritarianism at a moment that basic freedoms in Pakistan are on the defensive.

The $44 million, 820-kilometre underground Pak-China Fibre Optic Cable links Rawalpindi with the Chinese border at Khunjerab Pass and is backed up by a 172-kilometre aerial cable. A second phase of the project is likely to connect to the port of Gwadar in Balochistan, a key node in China’s US$ 50 billion plus infrastructure-driven investment in the South Asian state, dubbed the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The cable is expected to provide terrestrial links to Iran and Pakistan and serve as a conduit to the Middle East, Europe and Africa through hook ups with submarine cables.

The inauguration of the cable came days after China launched two satellites for Pakistan from the Jiuquan Space Center in Inner Mongolia, to provide remote sensing data for CPEC.

The satellites are expected to monitor natural resources, environmental protection, disaster management and emergency response, crop yield estimation, urban planning and provide CPEC-related remote sensing information.

The prominence of Pakistani military officers, including General Qamar Bajwa, Pakistan’s top military commander and Major General Amir Azeem Bajwa, the head of the Special Communications Organisation (SCO), at the inauguration underlined the cable’s strategic and potentially political importance.

Pakistan’s military sees the cable as a way of ensuring that the country’s in and outbound traffic does not traverse India. Major General Bajwa told lawmakers last year that the current “network which brings internet traffic into Pakistan through submarine cables has been developed by a consortium that has Indian companies either as partners or shareholders, which is a serious security concern.”

The key to the cable’s potential political significance lies buried in the Chinese-Pakistani vision that underlines CPEC against the backdrop of Chinese concern about the messiness of Pakistani politics and the People’s Republic’s support of what it sees as the behind-the-scenes stabilizing role of the country’s powerful military.

A leaked draft outline of the vision identified as risks to CPEC “Pakistani politics, such as competing parties, religion, tribes, terrorists, and Western intervention” as well as security. “The security situation is the worst in recent years,” the outline said.

The vision appears to suggest addressing security primarily through stepped up surveillance  based on the model of a 21st century Orwellian surveillance state in parts, if not all of China, rather than policies targeting root causes and appears to question the vibrancy of a system in which competition between parties and interest groups is the name of the game.

The draft linked the fibreoptic cable to the terrestrial distribution of broadcast media that would cooperate with their Chinese counterparts in the “dissemination of Chinese culture.” The plan described the backbone as a “cultural transmission carrier” that would serve to “further enhance mutual understanding between the two peoples and the traditional friendship between the two countries.”

Pakistan’s Ministry for Planning, Development, and Reform said at the time that the draft “delineates the aspirations of both parties”

The cable’s facilitation of aspects of the Chinese surveillance state and soft power strategy occurs in a country in which feudal and patronage politics dominate the countryside and the military has sought to severely curb media coverage in the run-up to elections scheduled for July 25.

Democracy has become a terrifying business in the villages of Pakistan. Elections might change the federal and state governments, but the feudal and punitive power structures in the countryside don’t change. The feudal lords offer allegiance to the new ruler and continue to oppress the poor villagers,” said Ali Akbar Natiq, a scholar, poet and novelist who returns every two weeks to his home district of Okara in Punjab, in an article in The New York Times.

The media crackdown involves censorship of TV channels, newspapers and social media, including preventing the distribution of Dawn. An English-language newspaper, Dawn was established by Pakistan’s founder Mohammed Ali Jinnah before the 1947 partition of British India, as a way for Muslims to communicate with the colonial power.

Cable operators were advised to take Dawn’s TV channel off air, advertisers were warned to shy away from the paper while its journalists were harassed. Other journalists and media personalities have been kidnapped or detained by masked men believed to be linked to military intelligence.

Columnist and scholar S. Akbar Zaid said last month that he was advised by Dawn that the paper could no longer publish his column “because of censorship problems that they are facing with regard to the military and its agencies. They say that the threats are very serious,” Mr. Zaid said.

Daily Times journalist Marvi Sirmed reported that her home was burgled and ransacked last month. The intruders took her computers, smartphone, and her passport as well as those of members of her family but left valuables such as jewellery untouched.

Pakistan’s military has denied cracking down on the media although it conceded that it was monitoring social media.

Bloggers, including well-known journalist Gul Bukhari, are among those who have been detained and released in some cases only weeks later.

A guard in a detention centre where five bloggers were held last year for three weeks, alongside ultra-conservative militants, told his captives:, according to one of the detainees: “You are more dangerous than these terrorists. They kill 50 or 100 people in a single blast, you kill 600,000 people a day,” a reference to the 600,000 clicks on the bloggers’ Facebook page on peak days.

In an editorial published after months of harassment Dawn charged that “It appears that elements within or sections of the state do not believe they have a duty to uphold the Constitution and the freedoms it guarantees. Article 19 of the Constitution is explicit: ‘Every citizen shall have the right to freedom of speech and expression, and there shall be freedom of the press.’ The ‘reasonable restrictions’ that Article 19 permits are well understood by a free and responsible media and have been consistently interpreted by the superior judiciary.”

The paper went on to say that Dawn “considers itself accountable to its readers and fully submits itself to the law and Constitution. It welcomes dialogue with all state institutions. But it cannot be expected to abandon its commitment to practising free and fair journalism. Nor can Dawn accept its staff being exposed to threats of physical harm.”

At the bottom line, Pakistan’s new fibreoptic cable promises to significantly enhance the country’s connectivity. The risk is that visions of Chinese-Pakistani cooperation in the absence of proper democratic checks and balances threaten in Pakistan’s current political environment to undermine the conditions that would allow it to properly capitalize on what constitutes a strategic opportunity.

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India Ranked at Top as the Most Dangerous Country for Women

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Thomson Reuters Foundation in its recent survey released on June 26, 2018 ranked India as the most dangerous country in the world for women.

More than 500 global experts on women’s issues took part in a survey covering areas such as healthcare, discrimination, cultural traditions, sexual and non-sexual violence and human trafficking. Not enough was being done to tackle the dangers women faced, they said. India was ranked fourth in a similar study conducted in 2011.

Afghanistan and Syria were ranked second and third in the study, followed by Somalia and Saudi Arabia. The only western nation in the top ten was the USA. The foundation said that this was directly related to the #MeToo movement

According to government data gathered in the study, crimes against women in India rose by more than 80 per cent between 2007 and 2016. Nearly 40,000 rapes were reported in 2016, despite a greater focus on women’s safety after the fatal gang rape of a student in Delhi in 2012 that prompted nationwide protests and led to tougher laws against sexual abuse being introduced.

India recorded 539 cases of sexual harassment in the workplace in 2016, 170 per cent from 2006, a report from last year suggested. However, campaigners have said that those figures are only the tip of the iceberg; a 2017 survey by India’s National Bar Association found that nearly 70 per cent of victims did not report sexual harassment.

Manjunath Gangadhara, an official at the Karnataka state government, said: “India has shown utter disregard and disrespect for women. Rape, marital rapes, sexual assault and harassment, female infanticide has gone unabated. The fastest-growing ecnomy and leader in space and technology, is shamed for violence committed  against women.”

Some observers pointed out that the study, while it took in wider streams of figures, was primarily based on opinion.

Upasana  Mahanta, of Jindal Global University in Delhi, told The Times: “I’m not sure that India is any more dangerous now than it was six years ago. In terms of progress, having only legal provisions  will not make the difference. Most studies show that women in India are mostly victims of violence from their partners or family members. Which shows they are hurt because they are women, regardless of cultural, economic or social factors. Women are basically being put in their place through violence.”

In the past year several prominent rape and murder cases involving children have led to the introduction of the death penalty for those convicted and speedier trial process for violence against females.

The Ministry of Women and Child Development declined to comment on the survey results, said the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the news network’s philanthropic arm.

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Pakistan: A New Space Era

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Pakistan’s fragile economy and resource restraints are the main hurdles in the way of technological development, especially in space affairs. Therefore, it is so obvious that Pakistan governments’ priorities were off the beam in term of emphasis on space technology. Notwithstanding, Pakistan has taken a small step by launching two indigenously manufactured satellites, Remote Sensing Satellite-1 (PRSS-1) and Pakistan Technology Evaluation Satellite-1A (PakTES-1A) into orbit using a Chinese launch vehicle.

PRSS-1 is an earth observational and optical satellite, which will allow SUPARCO to analyze its imagery requirements in terms of land mapping, agriculture classification and assessment, urban and rural planning, environmental monitoring, natural disaster management and water resource management for the socio-economic development of the country. After the launch, Pakistan has joined the elite club to have its own remote sensing satellite in orbit.

Pakistan is an active participant of international cooperation of Asia Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO). The APSCO is an inter-governmental institute functioned as a non-profit independent body with full international legal status. Its Members include space agencies from Bangladesh, China, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand, Indonesia and Turkey. The recent launch of satellites by Pakistan is an extension of support given by APSCO. Therefore, it is the conceding fact that after the successful launches of PRSS-1 and PakTES-1A projects, the space collaboration between Pakistan and China with respect to APSCO will be further strengthened.

The launch of two new satellites will facilitate SUPARCO in developing indigenous capabilities in space technology and promote space applications for socio-economic uplift of the country. Recently, an international conference on the Use of Space Technology for Water Management was hosted by the SUPARCO in March 2018. The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), the Government of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Water (PSIPW) – were jointly organizing the Conference. The conclusion of the conference was that there mote sensing satellite technology i.e. PRSS-1, have validated established competences in terms of water resource management.

Pakistan is rapidly becoming a water-stressed country and according to some estimates, it could face mass droughts by 2025. In this scenario, a remote sensing satellite will be very beneficial in accumulating the data for future plans to fight against this evolving threat. PRSS-1 will use remote sensing techniques to outline the surface water bodies, assess meteorological variables like temperature and precipitation, estimate hydrological state variables like soil moisture and land surface characteristics, and fluxes such as evapotranspiration will be compiled by scientific methods.

Pakistan along with other South Asian states is the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Satellite remote sensing is a useful scientific tool in understanding the climate system and its changes. The technologies and information related to space contribute a fundamental role in climate knowledge, science, monitoring and early warning. Space-based information can subsidize to calculations of the vulnerability of societies to climate change and can help monitor the efficiency of adaptation strategies.

Agriculture holds a great significance for Pakistan and being an agrarian economy, all institutions should be playing a positive role for consolidation in the agriculture sector. The professions related to agriculture i.e. farmers, agronomists, food manufacturers and agricultural policymakers can concurrently augment production and profitability by using space-based technology. The best apparatus to monitor and enhance agriculture development is a remote sensing satellite, which provides key data for monitoring soil, snow cover, drought and crop development. Remote sensing satellite can assess and record precipitation for farmers to assist them in scheduling the timing and amount of irrigation they will need for their crops. Precise data and examination can also benefit in forecasting a region’s agricultural output well in advance and can be critical in anticipating and mitigating the effects of food shortages and famines.

In this era of technological advancement, the Global community today faces a series of non-tradition threats such as climate change and the management of depleting natural resources. In the backdrop of emerging requirements of societal and economic development, geospatial technology is evolving as a top technological domain in the 21st century. The technologies related to earth observation and remote sensing techniques are getting growing interest from the academia, scientists, governments and industries. Pakistan is increasing its efforts in managing natural resources, enhance sustainable urban and territorial development initiatives, facilitate the conservation of forests and valuable biodiversity habitats. Space technologies must benefit all countries; therefore, the international community must support Pakistan to ensure the peaceful application of its space programme.

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